Good morning! Let's start with the important news. Venezuelan President Maduro and his wife made their first appearance in the US District Court for the Southern District of New York at noon on the 5th, refusing the so-called "criminal" charges brought by the United States. Maduro stated in court that he was "kidnapped" and declared "I am innocent," rejecting all charges against him. He emphasized that he remains the legitimate President of Venezuela.
Maduro's wife, Cilia Flores, also pleaded not guilty to the US charges. Her defense lawyer informed the court that Flores was injured during the US military raid. The judge has ordered Maduro to appear again for a hearing on March 17th. The Venezuelan government officially enacted a decree on the 5th, ordering national, state, and municipal police agencies to immediately search for and arrest all individuals involved in inciting or supporting the US armed attack across the country, and to hand them over to the judicial system for trial. The decree also stipulates multiple emergency defense measures, such as placing public service infrastructure, the oil industry, and other national basic industries under military management; enhancing patrols and security at land, sea, and air borders; and deploying "Integrated Defense Commands" in states and cities nationwide. This decree was signed by President Maduro on the 3rd, before he was forcibly taken by US authorities. US President Trump warned on the 4th that the US might further increase tariffs on Indian products if India does not restrict its purchases of Russian oil as demanded by Washington. According to media reports, Trump responded to questions from reporters aboard Air Force One about India's purchase of Russian oil by stating, "They [India and Russia] do have trade, and we can very quickly raise tariffs on them." In August 2025, the US government imposed punitive tariffs on Indian goods exported to the US, citing India's import of Russian oil, raising the overall tariff rate on Indian goods to 50%. The Indian government has repeatedly stated that its energy import policy aims to protect the interests of domestic consumers. Negotiations on the tariff issue between the two countries are ongoing. Federal Reserve voting member and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari stated on Monday local time that the Fed is very close to stopping interest rate cuts. In an interview that day, the central bank official indicated that the key to current policy judgment lies in whether the Fed should focus more on the slowing labor market or on inflation, which remains high and sticky. "My judgment is that our policy stance is already very close to 'neutral'," Kashkari pointed out. "We need more data to judge whether the inflation problem is more prominent or the labor market is more concerning. Then, starting from a neutral stance, we will adjust in any necessary direction based on the circumstances." In the markets, the US raid on Venezuela and the forcible taking of President Maduro have triggered geopolitical turmoil. Driven by safe-haven demand, futures prices for gold and silver on the COMEX surged significantly on the 5th, with February gold futures gaining over 3% at one point and March silver futures rising over 7%. Some market analysts believe that, similar to 2025, geopolitical instability will continue to be a key driver of gold demand and price trends in 2026. At the close, LME copper rose 4.19% to $12,991.5 per tonne; LME aluminum increased 2.32% to $3,085.5 per tonne; LME nickel gained 1.09% to $17,003.0 per tonne; LME zinc advanced 2.17% to $3,195.0 per tonne. NYMEX light crude oil for February delivery rose $1.00 to settle at $58.32 per barrel, a gain of 1.74%; London Brent crude for March delivery increased $1.01 to settle at $61.76 per barrel, up 1.66%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 594.79 points to close at 48,977.18, a gain of 1.23%; the S&P 500 index climbed 43.58 points to 6,902.05, up 0.64%; the Nasdaq Composite Index increased 160.19 points to 23,395.82, a rise of 0.69%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index closed up 0.53%. Among individual stocks, Canaan Technology rose 9.01%, AtRenew gained 8.58%, Kandi Technologies Group increased 8.34%, Dingdong Maicai advanced 7.89%, and Golden Heaven Group rose 7.61%. The nonferrous metals sector collectively surged. On the first trading day after the New Year holiday in the domestic futures market, the nonferrous metals commodities sector率先 kicked off a "carnival mode." Its strong performance, opening high and moving higher, exceeded market expectations and became a major highlight: copper and aluminum continued to lead gains, tin prices stopped falling and rebounded, zinc prices hit a near 8-month high, while nickel prices extended their relatively strong trend since mid-December. Notably, overseas nonferrous metals prices were mixed during the New Year holiday, but the domestic market after the holiday showed an independent, strong trend. The sudden change in US-Venezuela relations on January 3rd local time, with Venezuelan President Maduro and his wife being forcibly taken by the US, quickly sparked global capital market concerns about the stability of resource supply, becoming the "trigger" for the surge in the nonferrous metals sector. As a major global oil producer, the turmoil in Venezuela also triggered a chain reaction in global energy supply. Affected by the US oil blockade and sanctions pressure, Venezuela's oil exports have almost dropped to zero, domestic storage facilities are nearing saturation, and the state oil company has begun to cut crude production. Uncertainty in energy supply has further transmitted to the nonferrous metals industrial chain, especially for the electrolytic aluminum industry, which is highly dependent on electricity, intensifying market concerns about the supply side. In this wave of rising nonferrous metals, electrolytic aluminum is undoubtedly the core leading variety. Interviewees indicated that escalating concerns about tightening global electrolytic aluminum supply are the core driving force pushing aluminum prices higher. Fang Fuqiang, Assistant President of the Guomao Futures Research Institute, explained that the current supply constraints for electrolytic aluminum are mainly reflected in two aspects. On one hand, domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity has basically reached its "ceiling," with the capacity utilization rate already at 96.5%, leaving very limited room for future increases in domestic output. On the other hand, the lack of stable, cheap power resources overseas severely restricts the commissioning and release of overseas electrolytic aluminum capacity. In fact, pressure on the overseas supply side has recently shown signs. South African mining giant South32 has issued an announcement stating that the Mozal aluminum smelter in Mozambique it operates, Africa's second-largest, will officially enter a care and maintenance shutdown around March 15, 2026. It is reported that the smelter has an annual capacity of approximately 500,000 tonnes, accounting for 0.7% of global capacity. The core reason for the shutdown is the failure to reach a consensus on a new power supply agreement after the existing one expires. Besides supply-side tightness, expectations of "aluminum replacing copper" driven by the持续 rising copper-aluminum price ratio have also provided upward momentum for aluminum prices. "Previously, domestic and international copper prices repeatedly hit new highs, but aluminum prices were relatively stable. Currently, the Shanghai copper/aluminum price ratio has reached around 4.3, making the catch-up potential for aluminum prices increasingly prominent," said Fang Fuqiang. Zhang Tian'ao, a nonferrous metals researcher at Hongye Futures, believes that the current broad strength in nonferrous metals is evident. Technically, the sharp rise in Shanghai aluminum prices to new highs, accompanied by increases in both trading volume and open interest, indicates optimistic market sentiment. However, as the aluminum spot market has not yet entered its peak season and demand has not significantly improved, the market trend could be affected by changes in sentiment, leaving room for considerable volatility. Regarding the medium to long-term outlook for the nonferrous metals sector, interviewees generally hold a relatively optimistic view. Fang Fuqiang stated that, from a medium to long-term perspective, global liquidity is expected to further improve, while supply-side disruptions such as those at the mine level may continue to emerge periodically, potentially leading to a further upward shift in the price center of gravity for the nonferrous sector. Zhang Tian'ao added that on the demand side, future developments in AI hardware investment, photovoltaics, energy storage, and other industries will bring significant potential for aluminum demand. China International Capital Corporation also predicts that demand景气度 in the energy storage industry will remain high in 2026, further driving demand for related metals. Despite the current strong performance of the nonferrous metals sector, industry experts also caution about the risk of a pullback after the surge in the short term, as market trends are still influenced by multiple factors. "From the demand side, the持续 rise in aluminum prices has already put pressure on downstream demand for domestic electrolytic aluminum. Coupled with the current off-season for consumption and a decline in the proportion of molten aluminum, domestic electrolytic aluminum inventories are accumulating further, providing relatively limited driving force for aluminum prices," Fang Fuqiang indicated. While the market is currently focused on supply-side disruptions, vigilance is needed regarding pressure from weak demand. "For ordinary investors, the strong performance of the nonferrous metals sector is noteworthy, but the associated volatility risks should be viewed rationally," in Zhang Tian'ao's view. Whether new changes will occur in the industry's supply-demand dynamics and whether the geopolitical situation will stabilize will be key variables affecting the sector's future trajectory.
