US Futures Gain as March Inflation Report and Bank Earnings Loom

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US Futures Gain as March Inflation Report and Bank Earnings Loom

Bloomberg2023-04-11

US equity futures took their cue from a positive day in Europe and Asia, even as investors braced for inflation data and corporate results that could confirm fears about the health of the financial ...

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In premarket trading, Tilray Brands Inc. shares slumped as much as 9.9% after the cannabis producer’s third quarter fell short of estimates. Gold miner Newmont Corp. lost 2.3% after it sweetened its bid for Australia’s Newcrest Mining Ltd. Nasdaq Inc. shares fell 0.9% on a downgrade by Morgan Stanley, which cited uncertain macro trends.   Cracks in 2023’s equity advance are appearing, as hedge funds and other speculators amass the deepest short position since November 2011 when the US sovereign credit rating was cut. Widely-watched inflation data is due Wednesday and banks on Friday kick off what’s forecast to be the worst earnings season since the depths of the pandemic crisis.“It remains a very tricky trading environment,” Chris Turner, a strategist at ING Bank wrote in a note to clients. “Experienced commentators are refusing to dismiss last month’s events as a one-off and instead prefer to see bank failures as a harbinger of forthcoming stress in the global financial system.” The dollar edged down after three days of gains, Treasury yields ticked lower and Bitcoin punched above $30,000 for the first time since June. In Europe, the regional benchmark gained about 0.6%, led by a rally in cyclical industries including miners and automakers.The Federal Reserve appears on track to keep raising rates despite recent bank strains, with resilient labor markets and higher oil prices holding sway for policymakers focused on their price-stability mandate. The yield on policy-sensitive two-year Treasuries slipped below 4%, backtracking some of its climb Monday as traders positioned for another interest-rate hike.Markets are pricing for a strong likelihood the Fed will raise borrowing by a quarter-point May 3 to contain inflation, after US payrolls rose at a firm pace last month and the unemployment rate dropped. Wednesday’s report on consumer prices, expected to show a 0.4% monthly increase in the core consumer price index, could cement the Fed’s rate path.A scenario where the Fed halts rate hikes in May, which markets had briefly entertained last month as fragility in banks raised recession fears, looks increasingly remote.  “The Fed has maintained its resolute inflation narrative despite banking sector stress, switching to liquidity tools to tackle the funding squeeze, and keeping its monetary policy toolkit intact,” Mizuho International Plc strategists including Evelyne Gomez-Liechti wrote in a note. After May, though, markets are pricing in a pivot to easier policy. Tighter financial conditions following the failure of Silicon Valley Bank could pave the way. Investors predict rates will peak below 5%, with the Fed then cutting by roughly 50 basis points before end 2023.Elsewhere, Japanese shares climbed following the dovish stance of the new Bank of Japan governor, Kazuo Ueda, and on a report that Warren Buffett is turning his focus back to Japan. Oil largely reversed Monday’s loss, with West Texas Intermediate trading back above $80 a barrel. Gold was slightly higher and near $2,000 an ounce.Key events this week:IMF global financial stability report, TuesdayChicago Fed’s Austan Goolsbee, Minneapolis Fed’s Neel Kashkari and Philadelphia Fed’s Patrick Harker speak at separate events, TuesdayCanada rate decision, WednesdayUS FOMC minutes, CPI, WednesdayRichmond Fed’s Thomas Barkin speaks, WednesdayChina trade, ThursdayUS PPI, initial jobless claim, ThursdayUS retail sales, business inventories, industrial production, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, FridayMajor US banks JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Citigroup report earnings, FridaySome of the main moves in markets:StocksS&P 500 futures rose 0.3% as of 6:05 a.m. New York timeNasdaq 100 futures rose 0.3%Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.1%The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.6%The MSCI World index rose 0.4%CurrenciesThe Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3%The euro rose 0.5% to $1.0913The British pound rose 0.5% to $1.2438The Japanese yen rose 0.4% to 133.10 per dollarCryptocurrenciesBitcoin rose 3.2% to $30,063.6Ether rose 1.7% to $1,918.32BondsThe yield on 10-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 3.39%Germany’s 10-year yield advanced seven basis points to 2.25%Britain’s 10-year yield advanced eight basis points to 3.51%CommoditiesWest Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.4% to $80.04 a barrelGold futures rose 0.8% to $2,019.30 an ounceVolatilityVIX rose 0.47% to 19.06VIXmain slid 0.05% to 19.79","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComments":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":41,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}