Apple's commentary about iPhone demand and the competitive climate in China will likely be the most important metric to focus on during its fiscal 4Q23 call.
Apple is slated to report fourth fiscal quarte results after the market closes on Thursday, Nov 2.
Apple stock opened 2023 at $130.28, and it's been smooth sailing to the upside for most of the year, reaching a peak price of $198.23 on July 19. But it's currently sitting in the middle of the price range at $173 on Oct 23. The stock is still up over 30% on the year even though it's trading well below the high of the year.
Apple's fourth quarter revenue is expected to be $89.29 billion, with an adjusted net profit of $21.83 billion and an adjusted EPS of $1.392, according to Bloomberg's consensus expectations.
Previous quarter review
Apple said sales for the fiscal third quarter ended July 1 fell 1.4% to $81.8 billion and earnings per share rose 5% to $1.26. That topped analyst expectations of $81.69 billion and $1.19 per share, according to IBES data from Refinitiv. Weaker iPhone sales were balanced by strong sales in the services segment that contains Apple TV+ and by sales in China that grew 8% year over year.
Apple said iPhone sales were $39.67 billion, below analyst expectations of $39.91 billion, according to Refinitiv data. Cook said the installed base of iPhones hit a new high but gave no numbers.
Apple's services segment, which includes its Apple TV+ service which has announced a deal to carry Major League Soccer, had $21.21 billion in revenue, compared with analyst estimates of $20.76 billion, according to Refinitiv data.
Apple’s China Comments Vital for 2024 Sales Rebound
Apple's commentary about iPhone demand and the competitive climate in China will likely be the most important metric to focus on during its fiscal 4Q23 call. Recent news reports highlight weak iPhone 15 sales in China, which could be a function of sluggish economy, competitive threat from Huawei or rising nationalism. Apple's commentary on which of the above-mentioned factors are affecting sales would be critical, as the latter two are bigger issues, compared to lower sales due to short-term spending issues.
Financially, we don't see a noticeable impact of the iPhone 15 launch on 3Q sales, given elevated delivery times, and expect product sales to decline mid-single digits vs. last year and services to grow low-double digits. Stock buybacks could be in line with the past three-quarter average of about $19 billion.
Bullish on Apple earnings
As with any other tech stock, all eyes will be on Apple stock after the market closes Nov. 2. The fact Apple has met or beaten revenue and EPS estimates three of the past four quarters tells us it has consistently outperformed expectations, but expectations are higher this time around.
Higher estimates mean a greater outperformance is necessary for the stock to really take off to the upside. That concerns some analysts. If you think it can beat an already high earnings estimate, it could mean good things for bulls on Apple stock, especially if guidance for the rest of the year is positive.
Bearish on Apple earnings
Apple stock is such a darling in the eyes of everyday investors that the public looks for any reason to buy it. But with such a low expected move for the stock price this quarter, and a sizable increase in EPS and revenue estimates, the tech giant really must blow earnings out of the water to beat expectations this time around.
Apple also struggled to keep revenue elevated on its income statement the past few quarters, which is concerning for such a household-name tech stock. If you're bearish on Apple earnings and think that a miss in either EPS or revenue could send the stock tumbling, an increased expectation for both figures isn't the worst setup for an earnings selloff!