On December 22, spot gold in London surpassed the $4,400 mark for the first time, setting a new all-time high with a year-to-date gain exceeding 68%. Similarly, spot silver in London climbed above $69 per ounce, also reaching a historic peak. According to Orient Securities, the investment pace for gold and silver may diverge based on changes in closing prices and at-the-money (ATM) option implied volatility (IV) on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE).
Since early November, when Orient Securities turned bullish on gold, the ATM IV for Shanghai gold futures has fluctuated between 18% and 26%, indicating steady price appreciation without entering an accelerated phase. In contrast, silver prices and IV have surged simultaneously to record highs, suggesting heightened short-term market volatility.
**Gold: Steady Upside Likely to Continue** Orient Securities notes that Shanghai gold futures' ATM IV has remained within a stable range, reflecting a gradual uptrend. Despite gold breaking above 1,000 yuan per gram on December 22, with IV rising to 25%, the movement aligns with historical patterns, reinforcing expectations of continued steady growth. The firm maintains that gold remains attractive amid deteriorating U.S. dollar credibility.
**Silver: Strong Mid-Term Outlook but Elevated Short-Term Volatility** Since November 6, Shanghai silver futures have rallied from 11,427 yuan per kilogram, with ATM IV surging from 24.67% to 46.29%. The simultaneous highs in price and IV mirror the characteristics of the London silver squeeze observed from September 22 to October 17. While the firm remains optimistic about silver's mid-term upside driven by financial demand, the sharp rise in IV signals potential near-term turbulence, advising against aggressive position-building.
**Equity Recommendations:** - **Zijin Mining (601899.SH):** Strong resource reserves and expected copper production expansion. - **Chifeng Gold (600988.SH):** Improving gold output and accelerating earnings growth. - Others: **Zhongjin Gold (600489.SH), Shandong Gold International (000975.SZ).**
**Risk Factors:** - Macroeconomic shifts domestically and globally. - Tariff impacts and supply chain stability. - Evolving U.S.-China relations.
