全球最会炒股的央行巨亏？这是怎么回事

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全球最会炒股的央行巨亏？这是怎么回事

华尔街见闻2022-05-29

过去几个月对瑞士央行来说十分难捱。据媒体报道，曾任 Elliott 资产管理公司投资组合经理和瑞银债券策略师的 Meyrick Chapman 最近分析认为，今年迄今为止，瑞士央行的股票投资回报十分糟糕，损失可能达到750亿瑞士法郎（合780亿美元）左右，大约相当于瑞士GDP的10%。债券的损失可能更为触目惊心。他预计，如果债券价格在今年第二季度的跌幅与第一季度一样大，瑞士央行上半年的情况将...

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Youn7276
·2022-05-30
Ok
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SDLiuSG
·2022-05-29
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WinSum
·2022-05-29
Good read
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xiaochoochoo
·2022-05-29
...
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JWZ137
·2022-05-29
Great
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估计，截至2021年底，瑞士央行的投资利润约为900亿美元。虽然遭遇了一些破坏，但瑞士央行仍可能保留了大约650亿美元的利润，这笔巨额收益为该国带来了巨大的金融缓冲。瑞士央行投资的首选是购买欧洲债券。但随着市场对瑞士法郎的需求激增，瑞士央行将目光投向了海外资产，在美国和其他地区购买债券和股票。因此，外国对瑞士法郎的需求被转换成了瑞士央行的资产。这让瑞士赚得盆满钵满。但从很大程度上来讲，存款的流入意味着负债，瑞士央行的政策旨在用海外资产来抵消这种负债，其目的是防止瑞士法郎进一步升值，而不仅仅是赚钱。瑞士央行的政策与其他国家的截然不同瑞士央行一直在与其货币升值作斗争，尽管该央行的政策与其他国家的政策截然不同，但同样导致了资产负债表的爆炸性扩张。在雷曼兄弟破产以及随后爆发的欧元区主权债务危机之前，瑞士央行的外汇储备只有800亿瑞郎。如今，瑞士央行的外汇储备已经略高于1万亿瑞郎，合1.04万亿美元。美联储、欧洲央行、日本央行或英国央行等都通过购买资产来增加本国经济的流动性。这些购买狂潮是通过发行新的货币来推动的，而这些新的货币又作为准备金存入银行系统。相比之下，瑞士央行外汇储备增长了12倍，是其对抗瑞士法郎疯狂升值的结果。投资于国内的瑞士投资者，以及在欧元区危机中寻求庇护的外国人推高了被许多人视为终极“避风港”的瑞士货币。于是，一个瑞士版的量化宽松政策诞生了，新发行的瑞士法郎被卖给了那些用于避险的投资者，而所得的收益则被用来购买外国资产。在当月的会议上，瑞士央行表示：瑞士央行将保留其扩张性的货币政策。它将政策利率和在央行的活期存款利率保持在-0.75%，并愿意在必要时干预外汇市场，以应对瑞士法郎的上涨压力。在这样做的时候，它考虑到了整体货币形势和与其他国家的通胀率差异。瑞士法郎的汇率仍然很高。俄乌危机导致全世界的不确定性强烈增加，在此背景下，瑞士央行通过其货币政策确保价格稳定并支持瑞士经济。截至目前，瑞士法郎汇率报1瑞士法郎兑1.04美元，相比一年前小幅下跌。在3月初，瑞士法郎一度被推高至与欧元平价的水平。因此，在可预见的未来，瑞士央行仍将把政策重点放在购买外国资产上。如果瑞士法郎继续面临上涨压力，瑞士央行可能会购买更多。毕竟，这项政策已经奏效。瑞士央行在法律上被限制支付最高6%的股息，因此它不能轻易放弃利润。自2010年以来，该央行已根据资产规模增加超额准备金，这使瑞士央行有别于其他央行。其他央行的超额准备金相对较少，随着“量化紧缩”的演变，这些超额准备金可能会迅速减少。分析人士认为，市场逻辑对瑞士央行有利。债券和股票的损失通常与美元升值挂钩，美元升值虽然会损害瑞士央行的外汇储备，但无论其在哪个方向变动，对瑞士央行都是有好处的。当瑞士法郎升值时，瑞士央行的储备资产就会升值；当其储备资产贬值时，瑞士法郎就会相应贬值——这也正是瑞士央行想要控制的目标。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9024820430,"gmtCreate":1653859215320,"gmtModify":1676535350055,"author":{"id":"3577393549070429","authorId":"3577393549070429","name":"Youn7276","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/487c5c26a5e210d6b88adaeaba12329b","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9024820430","repostId":1190142421,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9024804750,"gmtCreate":1653834784670,"gmtModify":1676535348579,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"123","listText":"123","text":"123","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9024804750","repostId":1190142421,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9024149999,"gmtCreate":1653829715211,"gmtModify":1676535347805,"author":{"id":"3582540923206106","authorId":"3582540923206106","name":"WinSum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Good 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