AI boom and new product launches may help Nvidia report another beat financial results. Its fiscal Q3 revenue is expected to be 16.043 billion, with an adjusted net profit of 8.376 billion and an adjusted EPS of $3.353, according to Bloomberg analyst.
Nvidia is scheduled to announce fiscal Q3 2024 earnings results after the market closes on Tuesday, November 21st.
Latest Results
Q2 revenue doubled from $6.7 billion a year earlier and increased 88% from the prior period. Net income jumped to $6.19 billion, or $2.48 a share, from $656 million, or 26 cents, a year earlier.
It already posted three financial results that exceeded expectations in 2023. As of Nov. 14th, it rose over 240% YTD and the market cap was $1.23 trillion.
Q3 Guidance
Bloomberg analyst expects its fiscal Q3 revenue will be 16.043 billion, and its adjusted net profit will be 8.376 billion and its adjusted EPS will be $3.353.
H200 Helps Nvidia Size up the $1 Trillion Data Center Compute Opportunity
At Computex in Taipei this year, Jensen Huang spoke blithely of a $1 trillion opportunity in the data center. He believes that much current data center compute infrastructure is outmoded and needs to be replaced with accelerated computing.
IDC seems to agree with the $1 trillion opportunity in the data center. As of calendar 2022, IDC estimates that total compute and storage spending for the year was $154.4 billion. IDC also estimates total compute spending to increase at about a 10% CAGR. From 2023 to 2028, the IDC projected expenditures sum to over $1 trillion, lending credence to the notion of a "trillion dollar opportunity".
Meanwhile, it unveiled the H200, a graphics processing unit designed for training and deploying the kinds of AI models that are powering the generative AI boom, which is expected to ship in Q2 2024.
Negative Impact Of Export Regulations Isn't As Bad As Feared
It is noted that Nvidia could potentially lose as much as $5B of China orders as a result of the latest U.S. export control regulations, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Separately, Nvidia noted in the company's latest filing that most of its key products such as "A100, A800, H100, H800, L40, L40S, and RTX 4090" fall under the scope of the new U.S. chip export regulations. Nvidia emphasized that "we do not anticipate that the additional (U.S. export control) restrictions will have a near-term meaningful impact on our financial results." Also, the consensus FY 2024-2026 top line and bottom line consensus estimates haven't witnessed any significant revisions (in either direction) in the past month.
And the latest news is that the company is developing three new AI chips especially for China that don't run afoul of the latest export restrictions in the US.
Analyst Opinions
Bloomberg analyst Kunjan Sobhani expects Nvidia is likely to report another beat in its fiscal Q3 earnings results and guidance, and its ability to quickly design new China specific-products combined with high demand in the rest of the world, should mute the impact of the most recent US-China restrictions on its 2024 top line. Along with AI, Gaming is likely to produce growth in H2.
BofA Securities analyst Vivek Arya set a price target of $650, he anticipates that Nvidia will surpass earnings expectations, attributing to its enterprise genAI and new product launches. The sales impact of the China restrictions could range from $8 to $10 billion gross profitand $4 to $5 billion net profit.
KeyBanc analyst John Vinh cut its price target to $650 from $750 but maintained the Overweight rating, though he believed the effects of the stricter restrictions will be minimal in the near term. Vinh also lowered his fiscal 2025 earnings estimate to $20.84 a share from $25.62, while cutting his forecast for 2025 revenue to $96.8 billion from $116 billion.
