全球瞩目！重磅会议来了，鲍威尔要“憋大招”？

华尔街见闻2021-08-24

一年一度的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会将于8月26日至28日举行，本次会议的主题为“不平衡经济中的宏观经济政策”，届时美联储主席鲍威尔将发表讲话。而就在这一重磅会议召开前，“全球资产定价之锚”——美国国债的交易环境已经恶化，一些市场指标显示，流动性最近下降。这就意味着，一有风吹草动，美债价格就会大起大落。鲍威尔本周讲话期间，市场波动将更大。同时，正值市场对美联储将如何开启Taper关注最为密切的...

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Comment（10）

PuaTongSeng
·2021-08-25
Good
Reply
3
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榆钱
·2021-08-25
好
Reply
3
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hhyw
·2021-08-25
請回復和點贊，謝謝
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4
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CKWAI
·2021-08-25
來，回覆和點贊，謝謝
Reply
7
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- CKWAI:
  谢谢
  2021-08-25
  Reply
  Report
快乐玩美股
·2021-08-25
[財迷]
Reply
5
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Youn7276
·2021-08-25
閱！
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5
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- 快乐玩美股:
  [财迷]
  2021-08-25
  Reply
  Report
热佩儿
·2021-08-25
[驚訝]
Reply
4
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斗战胜佛巴菲特
·2021-08-24
老鮑別鷹派就成！一定要繼續養鴿子哈哈
Reply
15
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- Youn7276:
  阅！
  2021-08-25
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- Paulyang:
  是的
  2021-08-25
  Reply
  Report
- 行天下639800:
  就是，要鸽声嘹亮！
  2021-08-24
  Reply
  Report
长河_967
·2021-08-24
不是美國經濟的問題，而是你的格局還太小的問題！在《小馬過河》中的小松鼠的格局中馬兒永遠也過不了眼前的河[開心]
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3
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小小小橘子
·2021-08-24
j
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4
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- 小小小橘子:
  g
  2021-08-24
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When the heavy meeting comes, Powell wants to \"suppress the big move\"?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb748d18289cae163caf4bf58e86e11d","symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9},"content_text":"一年一度的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会将于8月26日至28日举行，本次会议的主题为“不平衡经济中的宏观经济政策”，届时美联储主席鲍威尔将发表讲话。\n而就在这一重磅会议召开前，“全球资产定价之锚”——美国国债的交易环境已经恶化，一些市场指标显示，流动性最近下降。\n这就意味着，一有风吹草动，美债价格就会大起大落。鲍威尔本周讲话期间，市场波动将更大。\n同时，正值市场对美联储将如何开启Taper关注最为密切的时候，鲍威尔发言的每一句话更将被反复琢磨，牵动市场神经。\n\n01\n杰克逊霍尔央行年会为何重要？\n杰克逊霍尔小镇位于美国怀俄明州，是一个很有名气的牛仔度假小镇。\n杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会起源于1982年，时任美联储主席的沃尔克出席了当年在杰克逊霍尔举办的经济政策研讨会，并在会上发言称，要稳定物价降低通胀率，之后再采取措施恢复经济增长，降低失业率。\n会议结束后，沃尔克果真出手提高利率，抑制通胀。\n在之后将近30年的时间里，历任美联储主席如格林斯潘、伯南克、耶伦和鲍威尔都多次参加杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会，并通过该会议向外界传达接下来的政策意图。\n比如，2010年和2012年，时任美联储主席伯南克分别在两次年会上释放量化宽松信号。会议之后，美联储如期推出了第二轮和第三轮量宽政策。\n可以说，杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会成为了全球央行政策的风向标，素有政策拐点“晴雨表”之称，对市场有重大影响。\n02\n鲍威尔会讲些什么？这是高盛的预测\n全球金融市场正在摒息以待，静候美联储主席鲍威尔会上的讲话将释放怎样的联储Taper信号。\n高盛分析师David Mericle在周一发布的一份报告中表示，预计鲍威尔将讲话中承认6月和7月强劲的就业增长，以及Delta变种病毒带来的下行风险。\n高盛认为，通过承认劳动市场自7月FOMC会议以来已经取得进展，能够有助于保持市场对于9月份美联储可能发出Taper预警，并于11月正式宣布缩减购债规模的预期。\n不过高盛认为，鲍威尔将谨慎地避免市场锁定对Taper时间的预期，以为将来可能出现的变化留下余地。\n美联储7月FOMC会议纪要对变种病毒带来的经济风险给出了令人意外的乐观看法，高盛预计鲍威尔本周的定调将大不相同。\n对于本次年会还有哪些看点，高盛认为，会议相关论文将着重讨论经济和劳动力市场复苏不平衡对政策的影响：\n虽然商品生产和住房建设都已完全恢复，而且只是受到供应方面问题的制约，而不是需求不足，但一些高社交性或与办公区域邻近的服务业部门仍然低迷，而病毒的复燃进一步推迟了它们的全面恢复。\n到目前为止，劳动力市场的进展也因行业和人口群体的不同而有所不同，政策制定者可能会根据美联储对其最大就业目标的新诠释，讨论这对货币政策意味着什么。\n03\n高盛预期中的Taper时间表\n基于对美联储会议纪要以及近期官员讲话的分析，高盛认为美联储的计划是在11月正式宣布开始缩减购债规模。\n如果届时一切进展顺利，高盛预计，美联储将以每个月分别100亿美元和50亿美元的节奏，减少对美国国债和MBS的购买。\n具体来看，高盛预计，美联储11月正式宣布的可能性为45%，12月正式宣布的可能性为35%，推迟到2022年的可能性为20%。\n高盛认为，在11月正式开始Taper之前，美联储将会提前通知，在未来某次FOMC声明中给出明确的“预警”，美联储将在9月的声明中发出Taper警告的可能性最大。\n不过高盛也指出，随着Delta变种病毒带来经济下行风险，美联储正式宣布Taper的时点也很有可能被推迟到11月份之后。\n在过去两个月里，美国的新冠肺炎病例增加了10倍以上，高盛最近将美国第三季度的增长预测从9%下调至5.5%，以反映Delta变种病毒对消费者需求和工厂生产的冲击。该行预计，8月份消费者支出总额将下降，至少部分经济数据将在9月份FOMC会议前表现平平。\n高盛表示：我们预计最佳的情况是，病例将在9月上半月开始下降，如果疫情形势在9月22日的FOMC会议前朝着正确的方向发展，FOMC可能会对糟糕的数据视而不见。但即便如此，在9月份的会议上预警削减宽松货币政策，会显得有些尴尬。\n04\n流动性恶化，鲍威尔讲话威胁更大了?\n杰克逊霍尔年会召开前夕，“全球资产定价之锚”——美国国债的交易环境已经恶化。\n因为价格起伏，加之美联储政策的不确定性，投资者对大举押注望而却步，在22万亿美元规模的美国国债市场，一些市场指标显示，流动性最近下降。\n流动性减少就意味着，一有风吹草动，美债价格就会大起大落。鲍威尔本周讲话期间，市场波动将更大。\n通常美债市场交易活跃，交易者有意购买和出售的价差一般会收窄。而在本月初，基准10年期美国国债和30年期美债的买卖报价差都曾创五个半月新高，此后价差略有回落，但仍处高位，上周价差再度扩大。\n摩根士丹利的美股利率策略主管Guneet 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