Palantir: Turning Weakness Into Strength

seekingalpha2021-04-13

Summary Palantir bears often point to insider selling and the weight of government contracts to justify their position. However, I argue here that what they view as a weakness, is in fact a strength....

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Comment（14）

StephenC
·2021-04-14
Great
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_Turtle_
·2021-04-14
Thanks
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LoLoMiNi
·2021-04-14
Is today the day
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Vikkilai
·2021-04-13
Great
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HengOngHuat1
·2021-04-13
Nice..maybe 50 by Dec...
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2
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Rzxc8
·2021-04-13
Great
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1
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Rhythm88
·2021-04-13
They hv the advantage of 17 years of developing the algorithm that meet their government needs! And no one else is able or been able to do it ..!!
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1
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TKCat
·2021-04-13
Government contract is lucrative but hard to bid. What competitive advantage Palantir has in getting the contracts?
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4
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Zacchaeus
·2021-04-13
good article
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2
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acciacci
·2021-04-13
Gogogogogo!
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HOSEH
·2021-04-13
PLTR ?Like and comment pls. Follow me and I will follow back. ????????????????
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5
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- Huathk:
  Gd
  2021-04-13
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- Vincentvlwp:
  OK, reply back too
  2021-04-13
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J5385
·2021-04-13
v Good
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WesleyC
·2021-04-13
Nice
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ming22
·2021-04-13
[鼓掌] [鼓掌]
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- zolluA:
  [Applaud]
  2021-04-13
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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Turning Weakness Into Strength\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-13 10:51 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418682-palantir-turning-weakness-strength><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nPalantir bears often point to insider selling and the weight of government contracts to justify their position.\nHowever, I argue here that what they view as a weakness, is in fact a strength....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418682-palantir-turning-weakness-strength\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"PLTR","symbol_name":"Palantir Technologies Inc.","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418682-palantir-turning-weakness-strength","article_id":"1192643222","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1192643222","pubTimestamp":1618282294,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"seekingalpha","name":"Seeking Alpha"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Summary\n\nPalantir bears often point to insider selling and the weight of government contracts to jus","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"translate_title":"帕兰蒂尔：化弱为强","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9},"content_text":"Summary\n\nPalantir bears often point to insider selling and the weight of government contracts to justify their position.\nHowever, I argue here that what they view as a weakness, is in fact a strength.\nUsing EWT, I reach a target price for Palantir of $102-$145.\n\nPhoto by pixinoo/iStock via Getty Images\nThesis Summary\nPalantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) has had investors divided since its IPO’d on the 30th of September. It has gained the support of ARK manager Cathie Woods, but many bears still argue the stock has little room for appreciation in the short term. While some of these arguments have merit, I find myself thinking that many of the alleged “weaknesses” of Palantir are, in fact, strengths. Exposure to government contracts is, in fact, a huge tailwind and strategic advantage, in my opinion, and the argument that “insiders are selling” is overblown. Stock options are the best way of attracting talent, something Palantir has plenty of. Overall, I believe in the technology and growth story, and while profitability is still in question, this should not be an obstacle to the stock appreciating in the next months, years and even decades.\nCompany Overview\nFounded by PayPal Holdings Inc. (PYPL) co-founder Peter Thiel in 2003 and is essentially a data analytics company. The company has two main divisions/products: Palantir Gotham, which is used to serve government contracts, and Palantir Foundry, which is a platform offered to private enterprises.\nHere we have the latest annual results:\nSource: 10-K\nIn the last year, Palantir managed to grow its revenues by 47%. In the last quarter of 2020, the company achieved 40%. which is in line with what it expects for the first quarter of 2021. Having said this, the Net loss has actually outpaced the top-line revenue growth by quite a bit. from 2019-2020 Net loss increased by over 100%. While the cost of revenues has remained under control, SGA and R&D have shot through the roof.\nBreaking down revenues into segments, around 85% of the growth came from government contracts, while the commercial side grew by only 4%. However, it is worth mentioning that the company achieved some notable partnerships with Amazon.com’s (AMZN) AWS and also Rio Tinto (RIO). In more recent news, the company has increased its partnership with the government following an $89.9 million contract, and Palantir has also invested in Sarcos Robotics through the Spac Rotor Acquisition (ROT).\nPublic Contracts are Actually Good\nThere is a lot to say about Palantir’s latest moves, which have sent the stock up over 5% in the last week. I’d suggest you read fellow SA contributor Steven Fiorillo's article on the matter.\nToday, I’d like to talk about Palantir’s prospects on a more fundamental level and argue against some of the false mantra’s that bears keep pointing out about Palantir, starting with the idea that Palantir is too dependent on government contracts.\nWhy is this a problem? As mentioned before, the company increased its revenues from the government by 86%. Arguably a point could be made that these revenues were at risk with the new change in leadership in the White House. However, Palantir continues to drum up business under the Joe Biden administration, in a “segment” that is projected to keep growing steadily.\nSource: CBO.Gov\nAccording to the CBO, debt/GDP is projected to reach a ratio of 195% by 2050, essentially double what it is now, at levels only seen before during World War 2. Is this a good thing? For fiscally conservative taxpayers, not so much, for Palantir. Palantir has positioned itself as the leading provider for the government in terms of data analytics and, to a certain extent, cybersecurity. In a world where dependence on the government is rapidly increasing, we can only expect these items to keep going up. Breaking down expenditures, the CBO states that “Major Health Care Programmes” will be the biggest expense items, at 9% of GDP in 2050. Palantir already provides services to the NHS, the U. K’s centralized public healthcare network, and it’s just a matter of time before it signs similar contracts here in the U.S.\nOn the last note on this matter, I will also say that Palantir is positioning itself to become a strategic business for the government, and could enjoy the many benefits that this class of business enjoys.\n\n Our software is used by the United States and its allies in Europe and around the world. Some companies work with the United States as well as its adversaries. We do not. We believe that our government and commercial customers value this clarity.\n\nSource:10-K\nIn a world increasingly divided and focused on nationalist practices, Palantir could become a key player for the U.S. government. Indeed, a company too important to fail.\nShare dilution is Actually Good\nThe other point I’d like to dispute here is the idea that insiders are selling because they have no faith in the company. This is wrong on a few levels. First and foremost, Palantir uses stock options to attract talent. This has been the case for years with highly competitive and innovative tech companies and is a great way of rewarding employees for their work as well as aligning their incentives with the firms. The fact that insiders sell shares, is only logical, since they have to exercise their options before they expire, and often this exposes them tovery high tax liabilities.Like with Karp’s most recent sale.\n\n Exercising those options will cost Karp $12.8 million. In return, he will receive stock worth $1.6 billion. That will create a mammoth tax bill and Karp is likely to sell a substantial portion of those shares this year to cover the liability.\n\nSource:Marketwatch.com\nLastly, I am happy to let the company fund itself through shares if this allows it to keep a strong balance sheet, which is the case with Palantir. With a little under $200 million in long-term debt, the company has a D/E of 0.3 and a current and quick ratio of over 3. Furthermore, debt/cash flow is equal to 0.75.\nIn conclusion, I think that the issue of insider selling is overstated. Insiders still hold over 7% of Palantir, a similar proportion for example to the insider ownership of Facebook Inc. (FB).\nValuation\nIt’s hard to value a company like PLTR because it has yet to turn a profit. Even insiders have pointed out that Palantir is a long-term play. One thing is for sure though, Palantir has got many excited, and also has the added benefit of being a popular Ark stock. Therefore, I think Elliot wave Theory could be used here, as I did in myrecent article onPlug Power (PLUG) to arrive at a target price.\nSource: Author’s work\nSince its IPO, Palantir has reached around $45/share. The recent pullback could be seen as a second wave, so as long as the $20 low holds, the third wave could land us anywhere in the target box area, between $102 and 149$. What would be harder to say, is the timeline regarding this appreciation, but I believe it could materialize in the next 2-3 years.\nRisks\nHaving said this, there are significant risks faced by Palantir in the coming years. The company has stiff competition, specifically in the private sector, where it has to fight against enterprises that deliver similar services and manage to make a profit. This is perhaps the biggest lingering question over Palantir; can it provide its industry-leading service while still making a profit? Indeed, patience may be the name of the game, as Wall Street estimates have Palantir with flat EPS until 2024.\nThe other issue, which could hurt Palantir, is data security and compartmentalization. The NY Times penned an article posing the question:Does Palantir See Too Much?This kind of thought process could limit Palantir’s ability to keep capturing government business.\nTakeaway\nWithout a doubt, Palantir is on road to becoming a key business in big data, especially for the government, which is fond of the idea of keeping a close eye on both its citizens and its enemies. Palantir technology is head and shoulders above the rest, but this comes at the price of high expenses. For investors willing to be patient and let Palantir prove itself, this could be a great time to buy.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":344242998,"gmtCreate":1618412253214,"gmtModify":1704710496020,"author":{"id":"3571359088752748","authorId":"3571359088752748","name":"StephenC","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3571359088752748","idStr":"3571359088752748"},"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/344242998","repostId":1192643222,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":344024111,"gmtCreate":1618361793733,"gmtModify":1704709632110,"author":{"id":"3553461926074646","authorId":"3553461926074646","name":"_Turtle_","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b51cfa0b103a39e7f6dd58a2faec937","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3553461926074646","idStr":"3553461926074646"},"htmlText":"Thanks","listText":"Thanks","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/344024111","repostId":1192643222,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":345747031,"gmtCreate":1618357387423,"gmtModify":1704709524340,"author":{"id":"3567689959878849","authorId":"3567689959878849","name":"LoLoMiNi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f5762ae58c6404aba4062f7aa3dae6","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3567689959878849","idStr":"3567689959878849"},"htmlText":"Is today the day&nbsp;","listText":"Is today the day&nbsp;","text":"Is today the day","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/345747031","repostId":1192643222,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":345431052,"gmtCreate":1618328115776,"gmtModify":1704709299358,"author":{"id":"3550480657175062","authorId":"3550480657175062","name":"Vikkilai","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/d30982eb743a47b466a91dbc6d1be49e","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3550480657175062","idStr":"3550480657175062"},"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/345431052","repostId":1192643222,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":345559581,"gmtCreate":1618325027643,"gmtModify":1704709229564,"author":{"id":"3571023352127879","authorId":"3571023352127879","name":"HengOngHuat1","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/177af729da45ee828c95c80501c05a7e","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a8758340a08196056f8bc1e54805193","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3571023352127879","idStr":"3571023352127879"},"htmlText":"Nice..maybe 50 by Dec...","listText":"Nice..maybe 50 by Dec...","text":"Nice..maybe 50 by Dec...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/345559581","repostId":1192643222,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":345643191,"gmtCreate":1618312888813,"gmtModify":1704708966970,"author":{"id":"3572704352789495","authorId":"3572704352789495","name":"Rzxc8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2dc8db9e3d540a0da51f8bf7fcc54d09","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3572704352789495","idStr":"3572704352789495"},"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/345643191","repostId":1192643222,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":345159576,"gmtCreate":1618290546995,"gmtModify":1704708672744,"author":{"id":"3565560262275157","authorId":"3565560262275157","name":"Rhythm88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80f5501da2fa10a6c684b9c19b6117a4","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3565560262275157","idStr":"3565560262275157"},"htmlText":"They hv the advantage of 17 years of developing the algorithm that meet their&nbsp;government needs! And no one else is able or been able to do it ..!!&nbsp;","listText":"They hv the advantage of 17 years of developing the algorithm that meet their&nbsp;government needs! And no one else is able or been able to do it ..!!&nbsp;","text":"They hv the advantage of 17 years of developing the algorithm that meet their government needs! And no one else is able or been able to do it ..!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/345159576","repostId":1192643222,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":345116789,"gmtCreate":1618286979441,"gmtModify":1704708622923,"author":{"id":"3575764061064234","authorId":"3575764061064234","name":"TKCat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99ee288f493a95ddc49f6f7bbeb74457","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3575764061064234","idStr":"3575764061064234"},"htmlText":"Government contract is lucrative but hard to bid. What competitive advantage Palantir has in getting the contracts?","listText":"Government contract is lucrative but hard to bid. What competitive advantage Palantir has in getting the contracts?","text":"Government contract is lucrative but hard to bid. What competitive advantage Palantir has in getting the contracts?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/345116789","repostId":1192643222,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":345118098,"gmtCreate":1618286608814,"gmtModify":1704708621780,"author":{"id":"3571961662143942","authorId":"3571961662143942","name":"Zacchaeus","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3d003759145d432b6a0393561eaccbd","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3571961662143942","idStr":"3571961662143942"},"htmlText":"good article","listText":"good article","text":"good article","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/345118098","repostId":1192643222,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":345132687,"gmtCreate":1618285793449,"gmtModify":1704708610882,"author":{"id":"3573293723353711","authorId":"3573293723353711","name":"acciacci","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94bbb8987174e5a3f205eb84324da3c3","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3573293723353711","idStr":"3573293723353711"},"htmlText":"Gogogogogo!","listText":"Gogogogogo!","text":"Gogogogogo!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/345132687","repostId":1192643222,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":345372309,"gmtCreate":1618283230501,"gmtModify":1704708568047,"author":{"id":"3569046636135912","authorId":"3569046636135912","name":"HOSEH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40f64f97cda0f2278523b0eb51bd4911","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3569046636135912","idStr":"3569046636135912"},"htmlText":"PLTR ?Like and comment pls.&nbsp;Follow me and I will follow back.&nbsp;????????????????","listText":"PLTR ?Like and comment pls.&nbsp;Follow me and I will follow back.&nbsp;????????????????","text":"PLTR ?Like and comment pls. 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