RBNZ Set to Leave Cash Rate Unchanged After 12 Consecutive Hikes

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RBNZ Set to Leave Cash Rate Unchanged After 12 Consecutive Hikes

Bloomberg2023-07-11

Policymakers expected to welcome signs inflation is waningSome economists predict RBNZ will hike again later this yearAdrian OrrNew Zealand’s central bank is expected to leave interest rates unchanged...

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It will be the first time the bank has paused since it began raising rates in October 2021.The 525 basis points of tightening, the most aggressive since the OCR was introduced in 1999, has pushed the housing market into a steep correction and driven the economy into recession. The RBNZ said in May that the slowdown in demand, along with a surge in immigration that’s starting to ease labor shortages, will see inflation return to its 1-3% target next year and it doesn’t envisage any further rate increases. “The data flow should leave the Reserve Bank feeling comfortable that inflation is falling,” said Stephen Toplis, Head of Research at Bank of New Zealand in Wellington. “The bank can well and truly sit on its hands.” The RBNZ will release its decision at 2pm local time on Wednesday. It is a policy review rather than a full Monetary Policy Statement, so the bank won’t publish fresh economic forecasts or hold a news conference with Governor Adrian Orr.The RBNZ was one of the first central banks to begin raising rates as global inflation pressures began to emerge in the wake of the pandemic, outpacing peers such as the Reserve Bank of Australia, the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England.Inflation eased to 6.7% in the first quarter. Second-quarter data is due on July 19, and some economists expect a further decline to 6% or lower.The economy contracted in the final months of 2022 and the first quarter of this year, and while it may have stabilized in the second quarter, three of the nation’s biggest banks predict another recession will start later this year.New Zealand Seen Stumbling From One Recession Into AnotherThe full impact of the RBNZ’s hikes has yet to be felt, as many fixed-term mortgages still haven’t rolled onto significantly higher interest rates.At the same time, the tourism industry is recovering faster than expected, while government spending and record immigration could add to demand. Some economists say the RBNZ will need to deliver one more rate increase this year to be sure of returning inflation to target.“We don’t think overall demand is capitulating to the degree that the RBNZ forecasts imply,” said Sharon Zollner, chief economist at ANZ Bank New Zealand in Auckland. “Squeezing the last couple of percentage points out of excess inflation is going to take a bit more work. We continue to forecast that the RBNZ will resume its OCR hikes by the end of the year.”","kind":null,"is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComments":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}