To The Moon

On September 29, the three major A-share indexes opened lower, then moved higher and traded in a narrow range throughout the day before pulling back slightly in late trading, producing a market pattern of modest index gains, broad-based stock advances and significantly shrunken pre-holiday turnover. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index stood at 3830.45 points, up 0.18%; the Shenzhen Component Index stood at 12901.95 points, up 0.34%; the ChiNext Index stood at 3142.56 points, up 0.09%; the STAR 50 stood at 1569.34 points, up 0.86%; and the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 stood at 1032.36 points, up 0.56%. Combined turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1,409.198 billion yuan, down 293.602 billion yuan from the previous trading day and the lowest since July 8, 2025. Across the market, 3,471 stocks rose, 1,933 stocks fell and 167 stocks were unchanged, including 57 limit-up stocks and 12 limit-down stocks, with advancing stocks accounting for about 62%. By sector, real estate development, real estate services, digital media, publishing, components and batteries led the gains; oil and petrochemicals, coal, cultivated diamonds, glass substrates, gas and planting lagged.

The day's trading was driven by several verifiable factors. First, the indexes moved narrowly higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.18%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.34% and the STAR 50 up 0.86%, while combined Shanghai and Shenzhen turnover reached 1,409.198 billion yuan, down 293.602 billion yuan from the previous trading day and the lowest since July 8, 2025, with advancing stocks accounting for about 62% of the market, showing individual stock performance was stronger than the indexes. Second, the State Council executive meeting was held on September 28. When studying work related to making macroeconomic policy more effective, the meeting noted that the intensity of countercyclical macroeconomic adjustment should be increased, a batch of pragmatic and effective incremental policies should be introduced, and policy measures to stabilize the real estate market and promote employment and income growth should be studied and rolled out. Third, seven departments, including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Transport, the Ministry of Commerce, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the National Energy Administration and the National Railway Administration, jointly issued the "15th Five-Year Plan for the Development of the New Battery Industry" on September 28, proposing that by 2030 all-solid-state batteries should initially achieve large-scale application and the cycle life of long-life lithium batteries should reach 15,000 cycles, with 19 key tasks deployed across five areas including full-chain innovation and development and industrial transformation and upgrading. Fourth, the Shanghai Housing and Urban-Rural Development and Management Commission and three other departments jointly issued the implementation opinions on implementing the notice on improving the commercial housing sales system, clarifying six measures including strengthening pre-sale management and orderly implementing sales of completed homes, effective from September 28, 2026. Fifth, several institutional research reports recently noted that, as upstream raw material prices continue to rise, PCB (printed circuit board) manufacturers have successively launched new quotations.

Sector adjustments

1. Solid-state batteries: The concept sector strengthened throughout the day, with the battery industry index and the solid-liquid battery concept index rising 0.44% and 3.19% respectively. Wuhan Landian hit the 30CM limit-up (+29.98%), Shangshui Intelligent hit the 20CM limit-up (+20.00%), and Shanghai Xiba (+10.01%), Gotion High-tech (+10.01%), Jinlongyu (+10.01%), Weike Technology (+10.05%) and Chuanyi Technology (+10.03%) also hit the limit-up. On the catalyst side, seven departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued the "15th Five-Year Plan for the Development of the New Battery Industry" on September 28, proposing that by 2030 all-solid-state batteries should initially achieve large-scale application.

2. Real estate: The sector strengthened collectively, with the real estate development industry index rising 4.16% and real estate services rising 2.70%. Cinda Real Estate (+10.10%), Huafa Industrial (+10.07%), Binjiang Group (+10.00%), Shenzhen Property A (+9.98%, second consecutive limit-up) and China Vanke A (+9.97%) hit the limit-up, while Tefa Service rose 13.49%. On the catalyst side, the State Council executive meeting on September 28 pointed to studying and introducing policy measures to stabilize the real estate market and promote employment and income growth, and on the same day four Shanghai departments jointly issued implementation opinions on implementing the notice on improving the commercial housing sales system, effective from that day.

3. PCB/components: The direction led the gains, with the components industry index rising 2.51% and the copper-clad laminate concept rising 3.75%. Xunjiexing hit the 20CM limit-up (+20.01%), while Aohong Electronics (+10.00%), Aoshikang (+10.00%), Yidun Electronics (+9.98%), Chaozhou Three-Circle (+10.01%) and Chongda Technology (+9.99%) also hit the limit-up. On the catalyst side, several institutional research reports noted that, as upstream raw material prices continue to rise, PCB manufacturers have successively launched new quotations, and the third quarter of 2026 is expected to become the starting point for improved sector profitability.

4. Culture and media/AI applications: The direction was active, with the publishing industry index rising 3.17%, digital media rising 3.67% and the AI marketing concept rising 3.55%. China Publishing (+10.07%), Xinhua Winshare (+9.99%), Zhangyue Technology (+10.00%), Gravity Media (+10.01%) and Chaoxun Technology (+10.02%) hit the limit-up, while Zhidemai rose 10.71%. Among them, Xinhua Media (+10.05%) opened at the limit-up and recorded a sixth consecutive limit-up.

Sector adjustments

The day's adjustments were concentrated in cyclical resources and some recently hot concepts. The oil and petrochemicals industry index fell 0.38%, coal fell 1.19%, coal mining fell 1.00% and gas fell 1.19%, while the cultivated diamond concept fell 2.70% and glass substrate packaging fell 3.38%: Huanghe Whirlwind fell 9.70%, Woguang Optoelectronics fell 9.39%, Rainbow Display fell 7.80% and Wanxiang Denong fell 0.82%. These directions posted the largest declines of the day, with oil and petrochemicals and coal having already gained somewhat earlier and ranking among the day's biggest decliners.