那些年爆仓的交易大神们，是如何逆袭的

腾讯自选股财讯2020-11-26

爆仓几乎是所有交易员都必须经历的一道坎，不管是散户还是交易大神，都逃不过爆仓。区别在于，有些人在爆仓之后能够吃一堑长一智，之后就很少再爆仓或者遭遇大的亏损；而另一些人则反复爆仓，可能这个月刚爆完，下个月又爆了。那些爆仓后能熬过来的人，几乎都能够在交易领域取得不错的成绩，甚至成为普通交易者眼中的大神。那么，他们为何能够在爆仓后实现逆袭，从此远离爆仓呢？下面就一起来看看。从大赚几十亿到破产，大神也...

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Comment（17）

Kenbey2002
·2020-11-30
Nice
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Tastemaker
·2020-11-27
經歷過三次爆倉，這次做空XPEV虧損超一半後果斷平倉，結果平到最高點[捂臉]
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不染_9117
·2020-11-26
勝敗常事
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Icy_Blue
·2020-11-26
風控太重要了。
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不负相遇
·2020-11-26
簽到
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史克郎大人
·2020-11-26
唉我攢了2年的，這個11月都虧進去了，17萬，唉
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3
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- 万象入星辰:
  资金管理很重要
  2020-11-26
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honinbou
·2020-11-26
風控太重要，資金越多，風控越重要。
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1
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TedZhang
·2020-11-26
交易員的紀律性真的太重要的，
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1
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霹雳倍倍22
·2020-11-26
我前幾年每年都爆倉爆倉4次了……[難過]
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5
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- 霹雳倍倍22:
  目前还毛有把前面爆的赚回来还不能吹牛[无语]
  2020-11-27
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- tesniola:
  大佬只要逆袭了就牛逼
  2020-11-27
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WingWong
·2020-11-26
說你行你就行，不行也得行，讓你上你就上不上也得上。誰來接句橫批？？
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1
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- HDY:
  一个字"干"
  2020-11-29
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- 嫩韭菜SG:
  爆仓等着你[开心]
  2020-11-26
  Reply
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厚德载福1
·2020-11-26
??
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里海爸爸
·2020-11-26
咋不說說爆倉後自殺的人呢
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LuckySun20
·2020-11-26
哦哦
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木讷呆滞的短线价格投机
·2020-11-26
、
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0xFFFF
·2020-11-26
最終交易大神們都怎樣了？
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Clumsypig
·2020-11-26
期權對我來說有些可怕，暫時不碰
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3
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上了年纪的男人
·2020-11-26
啊，我天天爆倉
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href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/JoR5ZLQkmr_muXMh1hCEag?st=09272F01C7821127D30BF8D98156F273DDE01F3A6F5BC099FE53CD65A2660B1DDB3A527C24B1C441BD4B0286D3ECC407733A023FD92B069A4DBEE462C2B6593308EF595F3ABE4536D24277DA2F7B6922051A24C25E93A5CB36C374A28125BAC4A3F36F68304C8E16276782FDEAFFF515BC2FF9B2204CAB46FA297E2CE8D4D6E4D7C84FBEFDC840E4341CDCC7FEFC6E10&vid=1688850698032889&cst=E8D47568E194102DDB56040AA2842CF07DB7B21A90D6B66B3ED58424BBE88B1E5E1463C1E4763CFD326DB7C5C63F4E7E&deviceid=9cef0c93-3905-4674-925e-08da625428b7&version=3.0.36.2008&platform=win><strong>腾讯自选股财讯</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>爆仓几乎是所有交易员都必须经历的一道坎，不管是散户还是交易大神，都逃不过爆仓。区别在于，有些人在爆仓之后能够吃一堑长一智，之后就很少再爆仓或者遭遇大的亏损；而另一些人则反复爆仓，可能这个月刚爆完，下个月又爆了。那些爆仓后能熬过来的人，几乎都能够在交易领域取得不错的成绩，甚至成为普通交易者眼中的大神。那么，他们为何能够在爆仓后实现逆袭，从此远离爆仓呢？下面就一起来看看。从大赚几十亿到破产，大神也...</p>\n\n<a 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did the great trading gods who broke their positions in those years counter-attack","themeId":"f15bb7cb5e8d4a9faa6a639206f628ee","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e103acee546df9380f8e979dc08d6c3","symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9},"content_text":"爆仓几乎是所有交易员都必须经历的一道坎，不管是散户还是交易大神，都逃不过爆仓。区别在于，有些人在爆仓之后能够吃一堑长一智，之后就很少再爆仓或者遭遇大的亏损；而另一些人则反复爆仓，可能这个月刚爆完，下个月又爆了。那些爆仓后能熬过来的人，几乎都能够在交易领域取得不错的成绩，甚至成为普通交易者眼中的大神。那么，他们为何能够在爆仓后实现逆袭，从此远离爆仓呢？下面就一起来看看。从大赚几十亿到破产，大神也逃不过爆仓爆仓或者严重亏损不仅对普通散户来说是家常便饭，就算是交易大神，这种情况也是时有发生。就算是过去战绩再怎么辉煌的交易员，也可能一夜爆仓。跟大多数普通人一样，交易大佬们的爆仓往往也是从重仓和自我膨胀开始的。在这个市场中，一旦你开始膨胀，在不理智的情况下不断加仓，不管你之前有多厉害，都可能会掉进深渊。一战成名的魔鬼交易员布雷恩·亨特(Brain Hunter)就是一个非常典型的例子。他曾经在德意志银行当过三年的天然气期货交易员，在这期间他有过辉煌的交易战绩，也曾一周爆仓亏损5120万美元。但这些跟他后面的经历相比根本不值一提，让布雷恩·亨特一战成名的那场战役是从他跳槽到对冲基金Amaranth开始的。2005年的夏天，布雷恩·亨特发现了一个「捡钱」的交易机会，他发现当时美国的天然气价格非常低，每百万英热(MMBTU)仅为6到8美元。布雷恩·亨特认定，只要等到夏天一过，进入冬季后美国每家每户都要依靠天然气来取暖，到时候需求必然飙升，价格也将随着水涨船高，于是他大量买入价格低廉的天然气看涨期权，等待价格回升。然而，还没等到冬季来临，幸运之神就降临到布雷恩·亨特头上。2005年8月25日，一场史上最大规模的飓风——卡特里娜飓风，席卷了美国。美国大量的天然气生产运营基地被毁，导致供应严重受损，而且由于路面交通也在飓风中被摧毁，导致相关人员无法及时维修。天然气价格立马就暴涨，从6美元飙升至10月的14美元，到12月中旬涨至15.38美元的顶峰，随后又快速回落至原先的6美元。布雷恩·亨特一战成名，他持有的天然气看涨期权给他带来了巨额回报，更幸运的是，连他用来对冲风险的天然气空头仓位，也在之后的天然气价格回落中获利不少。布雷恩·亨特这一战到底赚了多少呢？他所在的对冲基金Amaranth在2005年的前半年业绩还是负1%，结果8月份的业绩直接实现了5%的正收益，9月份达到了7.5%，当年该基金的收益达到了15%，管理规模增长至72亿美元。布雷恩·亨特个人拿到了1.13亿美元的巨额奖金。也正是这一战过后，亨特开始飘了，他认为自己能赚到一个亿，就一定能够赚到更多，自那以后，一个亿在他眼里已经完完全全就是一个小目标。得到老板的信任后，他还成立了一个事业部，将工作地点从康乃狄克州搬到自己老家——加拿大的卡尔加里。在这里他犯了一个致命的错误，为他后面的失败埋下伏笔。他的工作室找了好几个交易员和行政人员，唯独没有招风控人员，他当时的风控还是由远在康乃狄克州总部的大卫(David Chasman)负责。但是，他们没办法像之前那样对每笔交易的风控进行实时评估，更多的是通过电脑来完成，而且大卫太过相信亨特了。进入2006年后，亨特再次布局天然气，那个冬天是个暖冬，天然气需求并不旺盛，导致天然气价格起不来。亨特认为，下个冬天一定不会再出现暖冬的情况，到时候天然气需求会非常旺盛。于是，他开始短期做空天然气合约，同时做多天然气远期合约。截至2006年2月，NYMEX中11月天然气空头合约中有70%是他的仓位，2007年1月的远期天然气多头看涨合约中有60%也是他的仓位。可见他当时的仓位是有多重。当时他每天的浮动盈亏都在几千万美元的级别，运气好的时候一周他能赚几亿美元。他坚持认为自己的判断是对的，并且想趁机赚笔大的。2006年前4个月，他又为公司赚了20亿美元。但这一次，幸运之神没有再眷顾他。2006年8月底至9月初，NYMEX天然气期货的远期合约价格大幅下降，亨特的短期做空，长期做多的策略失败了。Amaranth对冲基金遭遇巨额亏损。2006年9月中旬，Amaranth创始人马奥尼斯(Nicholas Maounis)在给投资人的邮件中表示，亏损规模高达30亿美元。不过，他还是选择继续相信亨特。事实证明，他的信错人了。到了这时候，亨特依然不认输，他还认为自己的判断是对的，只要扛过了这个阶段，就能再次创造辉煌。这时候的他已经失去了理性判断的能力，他不仅没有减仓，反而还是按照原来的策略继续加仓。到了2006年9月底，这家基金的亏损扩大至66亿美元，被迫宣布破产。从名声响彻华尔街到陨落，亨特只用了一年多的时间。他的传奇故事就像一颗划过华尔街上空的流星，璀璨，但也短暂。爆仓的根源在哪里？其实，不管是职业交易员还是普通的散户，爆仓的根源其实如出一辙。从亨特的例子中，我们可以看到，他确实犯了很多低级的错误，比如没有做好风控、在严重亏损的时候还继续加仓，还有过度自信和自我膨胀等。他爆仓的根源主要在于两个方面：一是没有做好风控；二是仓位过重。这也是大多数爆仓的交易者都会犯的错误。他先是忽略了风控的重要性，结果又开始重仓交易，并且在已经出现重大亏损的时候继续死扛甚至加仓，最终导致爆仓。这种操作方式可以用一个字来形容——狠。在期货市场爆仓过8次的管洪志一开始的操作手法也透露着狠劲。他基本上使开盘后看到价格涨了就立马追涨，跌了就追跌，被套了就扛着，跌了就加仓。仓位基本上都是在70%-80%，满仓干的情况也时有发生。结果几年下来他在市场上把自己弄得「遍体鳞伤」，光是爆仓就经历了8回。此外，在交易中，当你过分地去追求某个非常明确的目标时，也很容易犯前面提到的两个错误。比如这位叫做马克·温斯坦的华尔街交易员，他在上世纪70年代的时候立志要赚足100万美元，然后在法国买一座心仪的城堡，当时他看上的那座城堡的价格是35万美元。为了实现这个目标，他重仓了大豆期货，并且忽略了风险。当时他每天的亏损相当于其账户净资产每天亏损近10%。当时的压力几乎让温斯坦处于崩溃的边缘，他还曾倒在女朋友怀里嚎啕大哭，甚至想过完全退出交易这行。包括一些交易大神在内，很多交易员爆仓的原因都是重仓+忽略风控。可能是交易者本身对风控只是甚少，觉得风控就是简单设置一下止盈止损；也可能是交易员本身对风控的理解比较深入了，但系统还不完善，简单来说就是自己的风控系统还存在漏洞。而重仓的原因本质上只有一个，那就是过分追求高收益，想要在一笔交易中获得自己预期的或者更高的收益。交易大佬爆仓后怎么熬过来？上面讲到的几个事例中，亨特有没有再次崛起不得而知，但管洪志却在8次爆仓后又崛起了，将1500万做大至1亿元。马克·温斯坦也并没有彻底离开市场，而是熬过来了，成为连续盈利80个月的高胜算交易员。虽然他们爆仓的原因都相差不大，但是他们从爆仓中领悟到的东西却各有不同。以稳代狠在经历了8次爆仓后，管洪志的操作方式逐渐趋稳，那股狠劲再也见不到了，满仓的情况几乎见不到了。他大多数情况下都是先用15%的资金来试盘，等到确定自己做的方向对了，底仓开始出现盈利后才逐渐加仓。8次的爆仓经历让他明白，交易最重要的是遵守纪律、严格执行计划、以及资金和仓位的管理。仓位管理尤其重要，如果一开始进场就将用了30%甚至更高的仓位，然后又在亏损的情况下继续加仓，很容易就造成严重亏损甚至爆仓，还会影响到交易者的心理。为了控制风险，除了仓位管理外，他还采取了其他措施。比如，根据盘面的强弱，在不同品种之间进行对冲交易。例如在农产品表现强，金属表现弱的时候，他会根据一定比例做多油脂，同时做空金属。学会敬畏市场根据马克·温斯坦的回忆，他在经历爆仓后，之所以能够做到连续80个月盈利的成绩，很重要一点就是他学会了敬畏市场。之前他就是太过自信，认为自己一定能从市场中赚到一座城堡，不经分析就盲目入场，结果就栽了跟头。他发现成功的交易员通常都是一些最畏惧市场的人。对市场交易的恐惧心理迫使他必须选择最佳的进场时机，要是他哪天觉得市场情况不对，或者对行情完全摸不着头脑，他宁愿当天不交易。每个人从爆仓的过程中领悟到的东西都不同，有些人可能什么也没从中学到，这周爆仓了后也不去反思，结果没过多久又爆仓了。爆仓的原因很多人其实都懂，但很多人还是会重复犯错。根源在于心态不正确，很多人就算爆过仓，知道怎样会导致爆仓后下次依然可能再犯，就比如第一个故事里的亨特。因为对金钱的欲望会让人好了伤疤忘了疼。要知道，交易的本质是一个概率游戏，只有深刻理解到这一点，才能正确看待交易盈亏，当你能够正确看待交易中的盈亏时，就不会再去一味地追求胜率，到了那个时候，自然就会跟爆仓说再见了。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":391276675,"gmtCreate":1606724653598,"gmtModify":1704966461202,"author":{"id":"3560981274539122","authorId":"3560981274539122","name":"Kenbey2002","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd83ebfa57eec316a24976cf6e78dcc6","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a8758340a08196056f8bc1e54805193","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3560981274539122","idStr":"3560981274539122"},"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/391276675","repostId":1195175253,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":391007383,"gmtCreate":1606408722642,"gmtModify":1704965568645,"author":{"id":"3567032447067177","authorId":"3567032447067177","name":"Tastemaker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cabde4fed202b2d61e86ef55c4c27b5e","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3567032447067177","idStr":"3567032447067177"},"htmlText":"經歷過三次爆倉，這次做空XPEV虧損超一半後果斷平倉，結果平到最高點[捂臉]&nbsp;","listText":"經歷過三次爆倉，這次做空XPEV虧損超一半後果斷平倉，結果平到最高點[捂臉]&nbsp;","text":"經歷過三次爆倉，這次做空XPEV虧損超一半後果斷平倉，結果平到最高點[捂臉]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/391007383","repostId":1195175253,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":393778774,"gmtCreate":1606402018398,"gmtModify":1704965548470,"author":{"id":"3568112459844756","authorId":"3568112459844756","name":"不染_9117","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/472fc1b0e69b9825c5435d60a727f2e6","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3568112459844756","idStr":"3568112459844756"},"htmlText":"勝敗常事","listText":"勝敗常事","text":"勝敗常事","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/393778774","repostId":1195175253,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":393723062,"gmtCreate":1606388182156,"gmtModify":1704965507113,"author":{"id":"3546944920316997","authorId":"3546944920316997","name":"Icy_Blue","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b005c6bb9f99244693c47f8778426cc","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3546944920316997","idStr":"3546944920316997"},"htmlText":"風控太重要了。","listText":"風控太重要了。","text":"風控太重要了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/393723062","repostId":1195175253,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":393713442,"gmtCreate":1606379761686,"gmtModify"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