高盛：预计美联储1月将“跳过”降息

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高盛：预计美联储1月将“跳过”降息

老虎资讯综合2024-12-16

高盛经济学家表示，美联储在本周晚些时候的会议上可能会发出未来放慢宽松步伐的信号，然后在1月“跳过”降息。

Jan Hatzius等在报告中写道，美联储料在周三降息25个基点，但最近的官员讲话暗示该央行“明显”希望放缓降息步伐。他们表示，这是因为失业率势将低于美联储对2024年的预测，而通胀率依旧高于目标。

高盛的看法与市场定价渐趋一致，预计美联储本周降息概率为90%，但已基本排除1月再降息的可能性。高盛仍然预计明年3月、6月和9月会降息，终端利率略微提高到3.5%-3.75%。

本文编译自 yahoo《Goldman Sachs Economists See Fed Skipping a Rate Cut in January》

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