Alibaba: A Rare Case Of Bullish Technicals And Fundamentals

seeking alpha2021-07-07

Summary From the very moment of the IPO in 2017, Alibaba's share price continues to move along the upward support. The price drop that we have been observing since November last year fits into the ...

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Comment（17）

FreedomKim
·2021-07-08
Nice
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ProsPaddles
·2021-07-08
I agree with your bull thesis
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SilverAmour
·2021-07-07
Patience is the virtue ?
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1
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eddieadc
·2021-07-07
$Alibaba(BABA)$ time to go to the moon!
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4
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BlueDaisy
·2021-07-07
Buy more
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e13v3n
·2021-07-07
so when lambo?
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2
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Premshila
·2021-07-07
Go go
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- 21900VAHP:
  To the sky soon
  2021-07-07
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bibek
·2021-07-07
Nice
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1
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teddy2304
·2021-07-07
nice
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teddy2304
·2021-07-07
yo
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Ahoon
·2021-07-07
Nice
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5
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- stingray102:
  ok
  2021-07-07
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- bibek:
  wow
  2021-07-07
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B1B2
·2021-07-07
Go go go
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2
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AppleMango
·2021-07-07
Hope it can go up. Pls like n comments
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3
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- needtoberich:
  ok!
  2021-07-07
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Kellylohlim
·2021-07-07
Hope it will go higher
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- B1B2:
  Looking forward
  2021-07-07
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TeslaLegend
·2021-07-07
Please like and comment. Thanks!
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MikeSeah
·2021-07-07
?
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- TeslaLegend:
  Nice
  2021-07-07
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火星投资狼
·2021-07-07
[Miser] [Miser] [Miser] [Miser] [Miser]
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2
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- 火星投资狼:
  [Anger][Anger][Anger]
  2021-07-07
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And this correction is most likely already completed.Fundamentally, the company is undervalued by at least 100%.Alibaba Groupnow represents that rare case when both technical and fundamental analysis simultaneously indicate a very likely increase in the company's capitalization in the n","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"translate_title":"阿里巴巴-SW：一个罕见的技术面和基本面看涨的案例","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9},"content_text":"Summary\n\nFrom the very moment of the IPO in 2017, Alibaba's share price continues to move along the upward support.\nThe price drop that we have been observing since November last year fits into the concept of a correction. And this correction is most likely already completed.\nFundamentally, the company is undervalued by at least 100%.\n\nThesis\nAlibaba Group(NYSE:BABA)(OTCPK:BABAF)now represents that rare case when both technical and fundamental analysis simultaneously indicate a very likely increase in the company's capitalization in the near future.\nPart 1: Fundamental analysis\nAmong the fundamental analysis tools, in this case, I find DCF modeling the most suitable because this method gives a rough idea of a company’s current rational value based on its development trends, the situation in the debt market and current volatility. In addition, this method allows you to look at the company as unbiased as possible.\nThe quality of the DCF model is largely determined by the quality of the long-term company’s revenue forecast, incorporated in the model. To consider a conservative scenario, when predicting Alibaba's revenue for the next decade, I proceeded from the lower bound of analysts'expectations. In my opinion, the CAGR of 15% over the next 10 years is more than realistic for Alibaba, given the current growth rate of China's economy. Let me remind you that the company receives more than 90% of its revenue in the domestic market.\n\nSource: Bloomberg\nIn addition, the model assumes a gradual decrease in the operating margin to 11% in the terminal year. This condition is dictated by the desire to consider a pessimistic scenario. In addition, it is in line with the trend shown by the company.\nData byYCharts\nTo calculate the Weighted Average Cost of Capital, I used thecurrent yield of China 10-Year Bondas a risk-free rate for the Chinese market (3.11%),equity risk premium(5.4%) and 3-yearrolling beta coefficient(0.6). For the terminal year, I used Beta equal to 1. To calculate the Cost of Debt, I used the interest expense for 2020 and 2021 FY divided by the debt value for the same years. Here is the calculation:\nSource: Author\nAmong other parameters, the following should be highlighted:\n\nThe relative size of CAPEX will remain at the five-year average.\nThe tax rate will amount to 27%.\n\nAnd, here's the model itself:\nSource: Author\nThe DCF-based target price of Alibaba's shares is ~$500, offering 130% upside. Please note that the considered scenario for the development of Alibaba cannot be called optimistic.\nPart 2: Technical analysis\nThis block should begin with the fact that from the very moment of the IPO in 2017, the company's share price continues to move along the upward support. The monthly chart demonstrates this very well:\n\nSource: TradingView.com, Author\nSeparately, it is worth noting that the fall in the price of Alibaba shares, which we have been observing since the end of 2020, fully fits into this pattern.In other words, in a technical context, nothing extraordinary has happened here over the past eight months.\nNow, let's move on to the weekly chart and take a closer look at the last two years.\nThe last major full wave (growth and correction), which stands out in the dynamics of the company's share price, began in March 2020. And if we assume that in May 2021 the price of Alibaba's share reached its local minimum, then we get a pattern that is in very good agreement with theFibonacci retracement levels.In addition, the preservation of the macro uptrend is confirmed again becausethe end of the wave is higher than its beginning.\n\nSource: TradingView.com, Author\nNow, let's move on to the daily chart and focus on the last eight months.\nThe fall in the company's share price, which began in November last year, clearly consists of three waves, indicated in the following chart by the letters A, B, C. (By the way, according to theElliott Wave Theory, the correction should consist of three waves.)\n\nSource: TradingView.com, Author\nIn addition, for the last eight months, the price had been falling without breaking through the resistance line, which is marked in red on the previous chart. And only on June 24, the share price rose above this line. A day later, the stock rallied above the 50-day moving average.Agree, the technical picture is quite clear and positive.\nMoreover, I also want to draw your attention to the dynamics of theMACDindicator:\n\nSource: TradingView.com, Author\nSince the beginning of the year, this indicator has been showing a steady upward trend. And now it is already in the positive zone.\nIn my opinion, all this indicates that the correction is most likely completed. Now a new, upward wave is emerging.\nAnd one more thing. Shares of Alibaba, much like the shares of most public companies, follow their long-term exponential trend, which tends to be well-identified on the graph with log y-axis. Here is this trend:\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics.com\nNow, the company's stock price is below this trend by one standard deviation. But overall, the trend doesn't seem broken.And just a return of the price to the balanced state within the framework of this model would mean an increase of 35%.\nBottom line\nIn the context of investments, the key factors for success are patience and objectivity in the perception of the situation. In my opinion, this is even more important than deep theoretical knowledge.\nI do not and cannot have all the information regarding Alibaba Group. But I clearly see that in the context of technical analysis, the situation here is positive. Moreover, the price drop that we have been observing since November last year fits into the concept of a correction. And this correction is most likely already completed.\nFundamental analysis is no less unambiguous. The undervaluation of the company is at least 100%.\nIn talking about Alibaba, it is impossible to ignore the sovereign risks, which have especially increased in the last year. Much has already been written on this topic, in particular, I evenassessedthese risks through the calculation of the WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital). But any risk comes at a price. And in my opinion, it is the technical analysis that shows well that this risk is already taken into account in the price of the company.\nTherefore, there is no need to complicate things. You just need to be patient. The company's price is potentially prone to rise in price by at least 30% in the next six months.\nJust be patient!","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":149820685,"gmtCreate":1625715669947,"gmtModify":1703747006393,"author":{"id":"3573119962682037","authorId":"3573119962682037","name":"FreedomKim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4300b07a250f193db050a2a7c7e36dfd","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3573119962682037","authorIdStr":"3573119962682037"},"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/149820685","repostId":1195805799,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":149364268,"gmtCreate":1625705697054,"gmtModify":1703746709239,"author":{"id":"3571919991986405","authorId":"3571919991986405","name":"ProsPaddles","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5743775abc150fab8749a749f0511b63","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3571919991986405","authorIdStr":"3571919991986405"},"htmlText":"I agree with your bull thesis&nbsp;","listText":"I agree with your bull thesis&nbsp;","text":"I agree with your bull thesis","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/149364268","repostId":1195805799,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":140875819,"gmtCreate":1625650186531,"gmtModify":1703745634095,"author":{"id":"3583236619050551","authorId":"3583236619050551","name":"SilverAmour","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/256e43ac204526854425faac738b3a5c","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3583236619050551","authorIdStr":"3583236619050551"},"htmlText":"Patience is the virtue ?","listText":"Patience is the virtue ?","text":"Patience is the virtue ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/140875819","repostId":1195805799,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":140851899,"gmtCreate":1625648315611,"gmtModify":1703745599804,"author":{"id":"3582462662307042","authorId":"3582462662307042","name":"eddieadc","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582462662307042","authorIdStr":"3582462662307042"},"htmlText":"$Alibaba(BABA)$ time to go to the moon!&nbsp;","listText":"$Alibaba(BABA)$ time to go to the moon!&nbsp;","text":"$Alibaba(BABA)$ time to go to the moon!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/140851899","repostId":1195805799,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":140822909,"gmtCreate":1625647771001,"gmtModify":1703745589373,"author":{"id":"3582677971530678","authorId":"3582677971530678","name":"BlueDaisy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0747094283743978b62fb8b1ee2cf44c","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582677971530678","authorIdStr":"3582677971530678"},"htmlText":"Buy more","listText":"Buy more","text":"Buy more","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/140822909","repostId":1195805799,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":140862639,"gmtCreate":1625647040021,"gmtModify":1703745576634,"author":{"id":"3565819252889467","authorId":"3565819252889467","name":"e13v3n","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/387ab24895655e32d7ddaf87ded7da37","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3565819252889467","authorIdStr":"3565819252889467"},"htmlText":"so when lambo?&nbsp;","listText":"so when lambo?&nbsp;","text":"so when lambo?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/140862639","repostId":1195805799,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":140863552,"gmtCreate":1625646755876,"gmtModify":1703745570822,"author":{"id":"4087731766567870","authorId":"4087731766567870","name":"Premshila","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b4f54bd2d7d70e50334f9d90dedcada","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4087731766567870","authorIdStr":"4087731766567870"},"htmlText":"Go go","listText":"Go go","text":"Go go","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/140863552","repostId":1195805799,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5147612,"gmtCreate":1625647383699,"gmtModify":1663230643150,"authorId":3571490962428363,"author":{"id":3571490962428363,"idStr":"3571490962428363","authorId":3571490962428363,"name":"21900VAHP","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f714a885d46a73e9b9a7fa53f4a7b05d","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":140863552,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"To the sky soon","text":"To the sky soon","html":"To the sky 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