European Central Bank Governing Council member Olli Rehn stated that an interest rate increase is not an inevitability.
Rehn indicated that their stance needs to remain calm, with a careful assessment of the medium-term impact of the energy shock.
He suggested that much depends on the duration of this severe energy shock. If it lasts only a few months, the textbook response would be to let it pass and maintain the current monetary policy.
However, if the shock raises inflation expectations and triggers second-round effects on prices and wages, then monetary policy would clearly need to respond to keep expectations anchored within the ECB's 2% target.
The Governor of the Bank of Finland noted that many outcomes depend on how the crisis ultimately resolves or evolves, adding that the ECB will have time to assess its impact in the spring.
The ECB must focus on the overall economy, not just on any single indicator.
