Market Analysis May 7 - Yesterday, market fundamentals included reports from US media stating Iran is "evaluating" a US-proposed 14-point memorandum of understanding for a ceasefire. The US President has repeatedly expressed optimism about reaching an agreement while also threatening to resume bombing. Iran has accused the US media reports of being inaccurate, stating they are still reviewing the US proposal. The US April ADP employment report showed an increase of 109,000 jobs, slightly higher than the expected 99,000, while the previous figure was revised down from 62,000 to 61,000. Against a backdrop of sharply falling crude oil prices, gold, silver, and non-US markets experienced strong rallies. Key fundamentals to watch today include the US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending May 2nd at 20:30, followed by US Construction Spending for March at 22:00, and later the New York Fed's 1-Year Inflation Expectations for April at 23:00.
The gold market surged powerfully yesterday. After opening at 4558.4, the price initially declined to a daily low of 4545.8 before staging a strong rally. Breaking through the key 4660 resistance level, which was the neckline of a double bottom pattern, the price accelerated upwards, reaching a daily high of 4723.4 before consolidating. The session finally closed at 4691.1, forming a large bullish candlestick with a slightly longer upper shadow. This pattern confirms the double bottom formation following the neckline breakout. Today's strategy is to buy on dips. If the price pulls back, consider buying at 4660 with a stop loss at 4654, targeting 4685, 4700, 4710, and 4723. A break above these levels could see a move towards 4750, 4762, and 4780.
The silver market opened at 72.871 yesterday, dipped to a low of 72.538, and then rallied strongly to a high of 77.823 before closing at 77.34. This formed a large bullish candlestick with a long upper shadow, suggesting continued upward momentum. Today's strategy is to buy on dips around 76 with a stop loss at 75.8, targeting 77, 77.3, and 77.8. A breakout could extend gains towards 78.1, 78.5, and 78.8.
The EUR/USD pair opened at 1.16904, made a slight dip to 1.16892, then rallied strongly to a high of 1.17965 before settling at 1.17475. The resulting candlestick has a very long upper shadow. For today, consider buying at 1.17250 with a stop loss at 1.17100, targeting 1.17600, 1.17800, 1.18000, and 1.18200.
The crude oil market opened at 103.49, dipped slightly to 103.54, then experienced a sharp decline to a low of 89.51 before a technical rebound led to a close at 97.18. This formed a large bearish candlestick with a very long lower shadow. If the price rallies today, consider selling around 100 with a stop loss at 100.6, targeting 98 and 96. A break lower could see a move towards 95, 93, and 91.
The Nasdaq index continued its upward trend yesterday. Opening at 28128.62, it rallied directly to a high of 28680.49 before closing at 28584.19, forming a large bullish candlestick with a long upper shadow. Today's strategy is to buy around 28400 with a stop loss at 28340, targeting 28550, 28650, 28700, 28760, 28850, and 28900.
Trading Strategy Summary: Gold: For existing long positions from 4120 and 4310, after taking partial profits, move stop losses to 4500. If the price dips, buy at 4660 with a stop loss at 4654, targeting 4685, 4700, 4710, and 4723. A breakout targets 4750, 4762, and 4780. Silver: Buy at 76 with a stop loss at 75.8, targeting 77, 77.3, and 77.8. A breakout targets 78.1, 78.5, and 78.8. EUR/USD: Buy at 1.17250 with a stop loss at 1.17100, targeting 1.17600, 1.17800, 1.18000, and 1.18200. Crude Oil: If the price rallies, sell at 100 with a stop loss at 100.6, targeting 98 and 96. A break lower targets 95, 93, and 91. Nasdaq Index: Buy at 28400 with a stop loss at 28340, targeting 28550, 28650, 28700, 28760, 28850, and 28900.
