Apple Stock: How Long Should You Hold It?

TheStreet2021-05-21

For best performance, how long should Apple stock be held in a portfolio? The Apple Maven discusses what traders, speculators and investors should expect when betting on AAPL. The Street’s Jim Cramer ...

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Comment（39）

lingling07
·2021-05-23
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2
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burdess
·2021-05-23
like n comment [Smile]
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Tiggermum
·2021-05-23
That means I can hold this for long term?
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1
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- piggytank:
  Now like not moving
  2021-06-01
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- Tiggermum:
  Ok. tks
  2021-05-31
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- sinneDteo:
  Depends on the entry price too
  2021-05-24
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Genekun
·2021-05-23
With 5g coming soon. Next few yrs would be good to hold on to apple
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1
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Peaball
·2021-05-23
As long as possible
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1
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paxxie
·2021-05-23
forever
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1
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Dawang
·2021-05-23
Hold it until i cant hold on!
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1
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Yappyyell
·2021-05-23
Hold. [Miser]
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2
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- Yappyyell:
  [Miser]
  2021-05-23
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- keozmi:
  yes
  2021-05-23
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- redjtan:
  LetS go!
  2021-05-23
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Gee1
·2021-05-23
i will hold indefinitely
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lizzy04
·2021-05-23
Hold until you become a bagholder!
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Jiangbox
·2021-05-23
Hold for life
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2
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- UNCLEUNCLE:
  agree
  2021-05-23
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- Gee1:
  agree totally
  2021-05-23
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jakejak3jake
·2021-05-23
Hold AAPL
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- jakejak3jake:
  Please helpt o comment
  2021-05-23
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- jakejak3jake:
  Like and comment
  2021-05-23
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roarrich
·2021-05-23
Keep them. They launch new phones
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1
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- Yappyyell:
  [Cool]
  2021-05-23
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Camemberu
·2021-05-22
Apple has been my best stock the past four years
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- keaty:
  guess no answer to how long but how much is our greed
  2021-05-31
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- UNCLEUNCLE:
  good
  2021-05-23
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- Sud123:
  What has been your return?
  2021-05-23
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L1LF
·2021-05-22
[Onlooker]
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happyfarmer
·2021-05-22
The hold long term strategy is good only for certain stocks.
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TANKH888
·2021-05-22
APPLE share is for long term investment..
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- MayTan:
  Agreed.
  2021-05-23
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FTGR
·2021-05-22
Buy more if price drop more. [微笑]
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- kslimReplying toFTGR:
  I see…thanks
  2021-05-28
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- FTGR:
  For me below 118 may enter a bit, then average down a bit more if drop more..
  DYODD.. [微笑]
  2021-05-22
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- ElliveN:
  Yeah can buy before the next product launch
  2021-05-22
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Wontstop
·2021-05-22
Buying
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- thuiminn:
  yes
  2021-05-23
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RXX
·2021-05-22
Still good to enter now? And hold for long
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The Apple Maven discusses what traders, speculators and investors should expect when betting on AAPL.\nThe Street’s Jim Cramer ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-how-long-should-you-hold-it\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"AAPL","symbol_name":"苹果","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-how-long-should-you-hold-it","article_id":"1197544614","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197544614","pubTimestamp":1621600946,"sourceInfo":null,"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"For best performance, how long should Apple stock be held in a portfolio? The Apple Maven discusses ","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"thestreet.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"translate_title":"苹果股票：应该持有多长时间？","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9},"content_text":"For best performance, how long should Apple stock be held in a portfolio? The Apple Maven discusses what traders, speculators and investors should expect when betting on AAPL.\nThe Street’s Jim Cramer has said it repeatedly: own Apple stock (ticker $AAPL), don’t trade it. Today, the Apple Maven revisits this idea to help determine how long one should hold Apple shares.\nBelow is an analysis of how much one might expect to gain if (1) day-trading, (2) speculating on, or (3) investing in Apple stock. Obviously, since the future is uncertain, the analysis is based on historical data – which I believe can at least provide a blueprint for future share price performance.\nFigure 1: AAPL trading chart.\n#1. AAPL investors: long-term winners\nAs I mentioned in my recent “Apple Stock 101” article, investors that bought Apple shares in December 1980 (i.e. the IPO date) and held onto them until now realized impressive annualized gains of 19%. Clearly, AAPL has been a good asset to “get and forget” over Apple’s tenure as a publicly-traded company.\nBut allow me to work with more realistic time frames. For this exercise, I will consider “investors” those who hold AAPL for one year. To be clear, many might consider twelve months a minimum investment horizon to qualify as long term.\nAlso, I am limiting my analysis to the past 20 years, since the stock used to be much riskier and more volatile in its first couple of decades of existence than it is now. Apple stock’s returns have been even better during this period that begins with the end of the dot-com correction:35% annualized.\nThe chart below shows the distribution of weekly returns earned by an Apple stock investor, using the parameters described above, if the bet had been made on any give day since May 2001.\nFigure 2: AAPL investor's weekly return distribution.\n\nKey observation: if held for one year, and based on historical observations alone (i.e. not on modeled projections for the future), Apple stock can arguably be expected to produce weekly returns of about +0.5% to +1.0%. Rarely has the stock been a big-time winner or loser – say, weekly returns of more than +2% or less than -1% on average – when the investment horizon is one year.\n\n#2. AAPL speculators: higher octane\nSpeculators have had a bit different experience from the above. Here, I characterize as “speculator” someone who buys AAPL and sells it ten weeks later, or roughly two and a half months after the purchase date.\nSee histogram below. For ease of comparison with the weekly return analysis immediately above, I kept the chart’s scale unchanged.\nFigure 3: AAPL speculator's weekly return distribution.\n\nKey observation: the distribution above is still somewhat bell-shaped, meaning that a weekly return of between +0.5% and +1.0% is still quite common. However, notice the much “fatter tails”. The probability of larger weekly gains or losses tends to increase when Apple stock is held for ten weeks rather than one year.\n\n#3. AAPL day-traders: buckle up!\nLastly, day-traders that buy Apple stock and sell it within less than a full week have been playing a completely different game. Once again, the histogram below depicts the averageweekly returnin AAPL when the timeframe is compressed to no more than 7 days. The chart scale, again, remains unchanged for ease of comparison.\nFigure 4: AAPL day traders's weekly return distribution.\n\nKey observation: when buying and selling AAPL in a matter of days, it is most common for the bets to result in much more sizable weekly gains or losses: less than -2.0% or more than +2.0%. Earning long-term average gains of about +0.5% to +1.0%, in these cases, has been a rarity.\n\nWhat to make of it all\nBack to the original question: how long should Apple stock be held? Based on historical analysis, the answer really depends on personal goals. Here is the roadmap:\n\nIf merely seeking long-term capital appreciation that might be market-beating, but probably not by a very wide margin, buying AAPL and holding it for a year or more is highly advisable. Speculative bets of a few weeks here and there (say, selling into strength and buying into weakness based on price action) could help to boost returns, if the trades are well executed.\nIf seeking outsized gains, trading AAPL within days would be the best approach. However, this strategy is also the riskiest, as it could lead to outsized losses instead. I believe that day-trading Apple stock is the least advisable approach to most people, but possibly an interesting proposition for a select few.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":133481868,"gmtCreate":1621782871754,"gmtModify":1704362372939,"author":{"id":"3558267776429365","authorId":"3558267776429365","name":"lingling07","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a369ade3411ab47e0d3b0f18ce029e2a","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3558267776429365","authorIdStr":"3558267776429365"},"htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/133481868","repostId":1197544614,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":133413369,"gmtCreate":1621781532151,"gmtModify":1704362357574,"author":{"id":"3582717601667302","authorId":"3582717601667302","name":"burdess","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a17f2b2e5a6a0f0cee2c197cc22ac550","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582717601667302","authorIdStr":"3582717601667302"},"htmlText":"like n comment [Smile]&nbsp;","listText":"like n comment [Smile]&nbsp;","text":"like n comment [Smile]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/133413369","repostId":1197544614,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":133549765,"gmtCreate":1621774700357,"gmtModify":1704362289525,"author":{"id":"3583998685772567","authorId":"3583998685772567","name":"Tiggermum","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21d0083a947df09fcc75ee225323c672","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3583998685772567","authorIdStr":"3583998685772567"},"htmlText":"That means I can hold this for long term?","listText":"That means I can hold this for long term?","text":"That means I can hold this for long term?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/133549765","repostId":1197544614,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4531397,"gmtCreate":1622552982637,"gmtModify":1680792423175,"authorId":3583634477135714,"author":{"id":3583634477135714,"idStr":"3583634477135714","authorId":3583634477135714,"name":"piggytank","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bab67e8bc985eb4d4ec0e266af302f0c","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":133549765,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Now like not <u>moving</u>","text":"Now like not <u>moving</u>","html":"Now like not <u>moving</u>"},{"id":4518084,"gmtCreate":1622462733070,"gmtModify":1680792188846,"authorId":3583998685772567,"author":{"id":3583998685772567,"idStr":"3583998685772567","authorId":3583998685772567,"name":"Tiggermum","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21d0083a947df09fcc75ee225323c672","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":133549765,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok. tks","text":"Ok. tks","html":"Ok. tks"},{"id":4423996,"gmtCreate":1621808815214,"gmtModify":1680790505243,"authorId":3574190598868333,"author":{"id":3574190598868333,"idStr":"3574190598868333","authorId":3574190598868333,"name":"sinneDteo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/120e946e020025a0f2a0ab36032d4712","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-3","templateUuid":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03","name":"President Tiger","description":"The transaction amount of the securities account reaches $1,000,000","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbeac6bb240db7da8b972e5183d050ba","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/436cdf80292b99f0a992e78750ac4e3a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/506a259a7b456f037592c3b23c779599","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.07.14","exceedPercentage":"93.69%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":133549765,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Depends on the entry price <u>too</u>","text":"Depends on the entry price <u>too</u>","html":"Depends on the entry price <u>too</u>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":133565278,"gmtCreate":1621771078494,"gmtModify":1704362256634,"author":{"id":"3562062018050031","authorId":"3562062018050031","name":"Genekun","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffb91ce7286a4dd47ea48415366d485f","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3562062018050031","authorIdStr":"3562062018050031"},"htmlText":"With 5g coming soon. Next few yrs would be good to hold on to apple","listText":"With 5g coming soon. Next few yrs would be good to hold on to apple","text":"With 5g coming soon. Next few yrs would be good to hold on to apple","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/133565278","repostId":1197544614,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":133561158,"gmtCreate":1621770551074,"gmtModify":1704362250909,"author":{"id":"3581852136286680","authorId":"3581852136286680","name":"Peaball","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ebc9fceefb91017a00835b783fa21c1","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581852136286680","authorIdStr":"3581852136286680"},"htmlText":"As long as possible","listText":"As long as possible","text":"As long as possible","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/133561158","repostId":1197544614,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":133509355,"gmtCreate":1621761815077,"gmtModify":1704362182977,"author":{"id":"3559522411638426","authorId":"3559522411638426","name":"paxxie","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3559522411638426","authorIdStr":"3559522411638426"},"htmlText":"forever&nbsp;","listText":"forever&nbsp;","text":"forever","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/133509355","repostId":1197544614,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":133210586,"gmtCreate":1621751613545,"gmtModify":1704362090178,"author":{"id":"3579482809178950","authorId":"3579482809178950","name":"Dawang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0f01f2346125f600328ffd48beb3a4c","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a2963eb37c60c5d6d4a8dbcd266952","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3579482809178950","authorIdStr":"3579482809178950"},"htmlText":"Hold it until i cant hold on!","listText":"Hold it until i cant hold on!","text":"Hold it until i cant hold on!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/133210586","repostId":1197544614,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":133670806,"gmtCreate":1621746809205,"gmtModify":1704362037463,"author":{"id":"3582712915585862","authorId":"3582712915585862","name":"Yappyyell","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e2de602327fd6668cd4baeadff7e967","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582712915585862","authorIdStr":"3582712915585862"},"htmlText":"Hold. [Miser]&nbsp;","listText":"Hold. [Miser]&nbsp;","text":"Hold. 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