Tesla (TSLA.US) has recently unveiled the fourth chapter of its Master Plan, alongside securing Elon Musk’s largest-ever incentive package and his increased stake in the company. Musk is intensifying focus on robotics, with hardware finalization and mass production milestones approaching. The Optimus V3 is slated for release in Q1 2026, entering mass production by year-end.
Chinese suppliers play a pivotal role in Tesla’s robotics supply chain, addressing challenges in large-scale manufacturing and cost reduction. As Tesla’s Optimus moves toward mass production, domestic firms are poised to benefit. CITIC SEC highlights key insights:
1. **Master Plan Chapter 4: Optimus Takes Center Stage** The Master Plan outlines Tesla’s strategic goals, with each chapter marking a milestone. Released in September 2025, Chapter 4 emphasizes integrating AI, automation, and mass production to accelerate global "sustainable abundance." Humanoid robots, as physical AI carriers, will become Tesla’s core product. Musk estimates ~80% of Tesla’s future value will stem from Optimus.
2. **Musk’s Renewed Focus: Optimus V3 on Track** Earlier this year, Musk revised production targets upward, targeting 1 million units annually by 2030. After leadership changes in the Optimus project in June 2025, Tesla optimized Gen 2 designs and plans Gen 3 mass production starting 2026. Musk has since prioritized Optimus, showcasing the robot at high-profile events like a UAE media leader meeting and *TRON: Ares* premiere. Per Tesla’s Q3 2025 earnings call, Optimus V3 will debut in Q1 2026 and enter mass production by late 2026.
3. **Localized Supply Chain Drives Cost Efficiency** Musk projects sub-$20K pricing for Optimus, with cost reductions relying on Chinese supply chain localization and economies of scale. China’s manufacturing prowess and breakthroughs in key components position domestic firms as critical enablers of cost-effective production. Tesla’s Thai factory underscores overseas supply chain expansion.
**Risks**: Slower-than-expected robotics advancements, limited application scenarios, technical pivots, regulatory hurdles, competition, legal constraints, and geopolitical tensions.
