摩根士丹利：中国正在重置经济底层逻辑

Alpha2021-08-15

来源｜MorganStanley 翻译｜狮刀北京正在将其监管优先顺序转向在增长、可持续性、改善社会不均衡、维护各项安全之间求得平衡。这将会让经济利益的划分更多转向劳动者，降低企业盈利。我们认为这将带来长久和深远的市场影响。 01 新目标带来的监管底层逻辑的重置我们正站在中国经济和资本市场一个重要的转折点上，在经过数十年消除绝对贫困的努力后，北京正在将其监管优先级进行调整，更加关心可持续性、社会...

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Comment（27）

_无解_
·2021-08-20
Reboot error
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Hsuhsuhsu
·2021-08-19
2012
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陈斌1111
·2021-08-19
上層建築不改革中間層底層不管怎麼分都不夠分
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13
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西王食品
·2021-08-19
修生養息
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陈斌1111
·2021-08-19
中國有三類人劃分財富權貴企業家草民權貴分大頭企業家分中間草民喝湯現在要照顧草民權貴的不能少草民要多分分誰的這模式可以持續嗎大頭不拿出來分剩下怎麼分都要涼
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11
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- 隔壁王中王:
  透彻。补充：权贵贡献最少，分的最多；企业家贡献最多，分的也多。现在保持贡献最少的继续分大头，却让贡献最大的分的变少
  2021-08-19
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小核桃123
·2021-08-18
就是拍腦瓜
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7
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blue12138
·2021-08-17
縮減企業盈利就一定可以把這部分轉移到基層勞動者身上？？參考美團社保
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3
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墨之
·2021-08-17
先把錢拿走，過段時間扣掉“手續費”，再還給你。
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朱时
·2021-08-17
新能源也不行啊
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madhatter
·2021-08-17
小摩就是小摩，適逢其時，說話滴水不漏，又巧妙避雷
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2
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- Fir38989Replying tomadhatter:
  不懂
  2021-08-18
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- madhatter:
  是的，搞错了 [微笑]
  2021-08-17
  Reply
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- 萨摩耶资本:
  小摩是jpm，大摩是ms
  2021-08-17
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meisini8
·2021-08-17
有高人！！！
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_无解_
·2021-08-17
有病亂投醫
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2
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周赞扬
·2021-08-16
沒有底了，要跌到什麼錢時候呀
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来大姨妈了哦
·2021-08-16
pZ
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PINGSTYLE823
·2021-08-16
dian zan
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黄黎黎
·2021-08-16
中國??加油?……
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1
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- 黄黎黎:
  说这话的意思是你已经加入其他国家的国藉了吗？你哪来的勇气质疑一个中国人的爱国心……
  2021-11-30
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- ChrisLu:
  呵呵！！那你的钱去加油吗？
  2021-08-20
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LNM888
·2021-08-15
Ok
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2
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山那边的英英子
·2021-08-15
X
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1
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- 山那边的英英子:
  B
  2021-08-15
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小小小橘子
·2021-08-15
G
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- 小小小橘子:
  J
  2021-08-15
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winwin_Tan
·2021-08-15
加油，加油。
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Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"MS","symbol_name":"摩根士丹利","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA4MzI5NDYzOQ==&mid=2661002050&idx=1&sn=00d0687862af9e48c8cf54e4d22ddbaf&chksm=8497ab82b3e02294440fbd1c6978b4f09d0e384d2426a7bd2c0c9a02758ff8dcd42028f74fe8&mpshare=1&scene=1&srcid=0814V2xUfdOGqfm36EtASXgx&sharer_sharetime=1628996831379&sharer_shareid=5b9c903a20bc36d4de78164764e2988e&key=d1d8edcf521e80783a7af918a5251862b7179024ee5f74028abb41196df309dff466c333f305e9a58db3153cf0ed27aa5a519ec835eca32abbed9002b29c993e6cce9e324ad4e51d211be0c0fa5cbdcdc90fb911e2f78d81b9e969cc4c2c9b4eb9a1e26cc028c6e81624d030fa214d4ecca61cab6c218f420979df4429f792a4&ascene=1&uin=MjIyNzA3NjE3Ng%3D%3D&devicetype=Windows+10+x64&version=62090529&lang=zh_CN&exportkey=Acrj7L%2Bt8pq%2FprzZTLxC2AE%3D&pass_ticket=PeyI1lzG6jIysNB%2F54HPTZyzbZITEgY8rwEJztYIe%2Blfggnlig23JKX87hQKrq8U&wx_header=0","article_id":"1198913754","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/68da0043a3f7932eb6870829ddb8962d"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198913754","pubTimestamp":1628997403,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"lsy1628997733188","name":"Alpha智库"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"中国似乎正在尝试将经济利益分配向劳动者倾斜，这将会带来企业盈利占比的下降。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"qq.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"MS":"摩根士丹利"},"translate_title":"Morgan Stanley: China is resetting the underlying logic of the economy","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af21bb854014a954f91cd49a2b96913f","symbols_score_info":{"MS":0.9},"content_text":"来源｜MorganStanley\n翻译｜狮刀\n北京正在将其监管优先顺序转向在增长、可持续性、改善社会不均衡、维护各项安全之间求得平衡。这将会让经济利益的划分更多转向劳动者，降低企业盈利。我们认为这将带来长久和深远的市场影响。\n01\n新目标带来的监管底层逻辑的重置\n我们正站在中国经济和资本市场一个重要的转折点上，在经过数十年消除绝对贫困的努力后，北京正在将其监管优先级进行调整，更加关心可持续性、社会公平、数据安全，和自主可控。中国对于金融科技、大科技巨头、课后教育、数字货币，以及碳排放的限制升级正是这次逻辑重置的体现。\n经济方面的影响：在新的逻辑范式下，中国似乎正在尝试将经济利益分配向劳动者倾斜，这将会带来企业盈利占比的下降。我们看到和社会不平衡，经济可持续性，以及数据和网络安全相关的行业政策风险可能上行，而高端制造、科技自主可控、以及清洁能源有政策利好的支撑。我们仍然严密监控可能的“过度监管”风险。同时也关注可能的反转信号，包括例如，在港科技企业IPO、平台型企业雇员福利问题解决的清晰信号、或者有分量的政策制定者（top policymaker）的讲话。\n投资方面的影响：我们预计这次重置对于中国权益市场的估值和ERP会带来长久和深远的影响，但主要因为其影响在互联网板块，这是中国指数的重要权重，在MSCI China占比大约在40%到50%。这一板块未来收入和利润率的不确定性仍较大。\n挑战和机会：重数据型科技和平台企业，以及房地产企业仍然处于政策压制中。“新经济”板块会继续享受政策支持。\n从增长优先到兼顾公平：长达数十年的消除绝对贫困的努力之后新的目标是社会平等、数据安全，以及自主可控。\n\n\n四个政策关注的主要领域：社会风险、国家风险、金融风险、环境风险\n\n中国历史上每一次监管都带来某个行业底层逻辑的颠覆：采掘、乳制品、酒、跨境投资、游戏、医药、以及这次的互联网：\n\n过去历次监管带来的行业震荡：\n\n可能需要观察的风险点包括：过度监管带来的市场震荡、政策协调不足、政策沟通不足，以及最终可能对生产力的拖累：\n\n可以观察的事件解决路标：\n\n对中国权益指数的影响主要在MSCI China（互联网占比47%）：\n\n02\n怎样理解中国的逻辑重置\n新纪元新目标：我们相信近期的监管收紧反应了中国底层逻辑的改变，并不只是针对互联网巨头。在过去十年中北京的核心目标是保持双位数的收入增速，并消除绝对贫困，给予经济增速以最高权重。可是同时也带来了巨大的社会不均衡，这促使本届政府转向”共同富裕“（”getting rich together---common prosperity“）作为新的发展目标，并将包括社会平衡、供应链可控、数据安全等引入了新的政府KPI。\n过去9个月的政策制定反映了这一目标。 简单来说，我们认为中国正在平衡上升中的企业利润，和下降中的劳动者补偿，让劳动者更多分享到经济体发展的收益，这可能带来某些板块系统性的估值下降。我们认为政策制定者必须面临一个严峻的平衡挑战：如果中国仍希望能成为强大的经济体，就必须保证私营企业部分的活力，来促进创新，以及帮助人民币国际化和资本流动。尽管新的监管对社会责任和数据使用带来限制，但我们仍相信不会对其他权益板块有过大的影响。\n但这并不代表不会有权益市场的震荡：\n\n\n这次监管的很多内容实际都是老内容，为什么在过去9个月中突然加速？我们曾见过这一幕不知道多少次：之前06-08年的采掘行业，08-10年的乳制品行业，13-14年的高端白酒餐饮行业，16-17年的对外投资，18年的游戏，18-19年的药品，大多都存在了1-2年。\n如何在调仓上应对：仍需要暂时回避政策利空的行业板块（民生、安全相关的标的）。更多关注：清洁能源、数据和网络安全、高端制造、半导体供应链可控、创新生物药等新经济板块。\n\n03\n过去的几次政策影响经验\n2012-2016年：反腐败\n\n\n\n\n2015-2018年供给侧改革：\n\n\n\n\n\n\n摩根士丹利发布了一份名为《消费2030：“服务”至上》的报告，报告称，到2030年，中国的消费格局将发生巨大变革。这场变革带来的结果是，服务为GDP创造的价值将超过商品。\n根据摩根士丹利预计，到2030年，中国家庭人均收入将翻一番，而购买力将由35-44岁和55岁以上年龄段（1960年代出生的婴儿潮一代及其子女）主导，此外，到了2030年，消费重点将从现在的“年轻消费者”转向为“家庭需求和退休消费”。\n以“情感健康”和“自我实现”为目标的消费将日益突出，消费者将越来越依赖一个“全自动化”的社会。摩根士丹利认为，中国消费者的消费理念将引领全球。\n那么这场变革的主要驱动力是什么？摩根士丹利认为有五个因素：收入、人口特性、技术、政策和文化，同时，报告也指出了消费发展过程中可能存在的风险点。\n\n以下为报告的部分摘要：\n中国将超越美国成为全球第一大消费国\n在这份报告中，基于家庭收入和政策动向方面的变化，我们更新了我们对中国消费市场的预测。我们认为到2030年中国的家庭平均收入将从6000美元上升到12000美元，增长的重要驱动力为城镇化2.0、经济持续开放以保持中国供应链的国际竞争力、以及持续的改革以吸引外资流入。\n尽管人口老龄化会自然地提升消费率，中国的政策制定者也在努力地推进经济内循环战略以释放中国的消费潜力，主要目的是应对一个多极化的后新冠时代给中国出口带来的挑战。\n推进这个战略的主要手段一方面为数字化，以提升电子商务在实物类和服务类两方面的渗透率，支持随时随地的消费；另一方面是通过改革消除影响消费的瓶颈因素，比如物流、进口税，以及户口等方面。\n因此我们预期中国的消费市场规模将在下一个十年中翻倍，达到12.7万亿美元，这比我们2017年做的预测9.7万亿美元高出30%。\n这意味着下一个十年里中国的消费市场规模将保持年化7.9%的增长率，成为全球消费市场规模增长最快的国家之一。\n中国的商品类消费市场规模目前已经超过美国为其全球第一大市场。如果把服务类消费统计在内，当前美国消费市场规模仍显著大于中国。但是如果我们的预测成为现实，即使是把服务类消费统计在内，十年后中国也将成为世界上最大的消费市场。\n下一个十年里中国消费市场变化的一个重要特征是服务类消费超过实物类消费。\n我们现在预期服务类消费的占比将从当前的45%提升至52%，年化增长率为9.2%，超过同期实物类消费6.7%的增长率。\n这一点跟西方国家有所不同。在西方国家，当家庭平均收入达到8000到10000美元时，服务类消费占比的提升就基本上停滞了，但是在中国我们观察到稳定的提升趋势，主要原因一方面是中国独特的人口结构，中国持续多年的一胎化政策极大地加重了壮年人口照看年老父母的负担，因此带来了更多的服务消费的需求。另一方面是基于移动互联网的高度数字化，使获得服务的便利性和快捷性大大增强。\n\n哪些赛道值得投？\n我们使用的投资框架：随着中国的消费市场增长从实物驱动转向服务驱动，而且关注点从年轻人的消费转向家庭需求和退休计划，我们预期各行各业也会有相应的变化。为了更好地分析这些变化，我们把诸多的行业基于他们的产品线和行业变化的驱动力，分为四个大的类别：\n➤ 扩张（服务相关的行业主要落在这个大类）\n在未来几年里将面临结构化的增长，比如：物业管理，医疗服务，养老服务，医疗保险，教育，国内旅游和入境游，旅游购物尤其是免税店，家庭便利服务和本地生活服务。\n➤ 进化（主要由新商业模式驱动）\n未来几年将面临结构性的变化。又分两类。一是进化的商业模式，比如:集成平台，供应链管理和销售渠道管理服务，C2M（Consumer2Manufacturer，即大规模定制化服务）商业模式的落地，更广泛的AI，AR和VR应用。\n➤ 新兴（由技术和服务相结合驱动的行业）\n在2020年还规模有限，但是2030年之前将具备重大商业影响力的行业。比如：情感伴侣，康复医疗服务，服务机器人（商业和消费类）,婚恋服务，对公司的社会责任感（ESG，Environmental，Social，and Corporate Governance，即环保，社会责任，和公司治理）更加注重的消费者。\n➤ 前增长（那些被人口结构变化和技术颠覆的成熟行业）\n比如：低端酒精饮料，基础必需品，传统汽车，传统家电。\n\n以上基于对下一个十年的展望作出的对诸多行业的分类为我们的自上而下的选股方法论打下了基础。\n下面我们把这个分类体系进一步细化，把每个大类里的公司通过四个要素维度来分析，以构成我们针对个股进行研究的框架。这四要素分别是：品牌，渠道，技术和服务。有了这个框架，我们就可以对一家公司在行业内的竞争力进行研究。\n投资结论：\n我们预期机构化的服务（教育，集成平台，医疗保健，养老服务，医疗保险，供应链管理），智慧生活（数字化物业管理，智能家居，和电动汽车），生活体验增强服务/产品（情感伴侣类，比如宠物，玩具，康复医疗服务，服务机器人，和社交平台）会有稳定和快速的增长。\n但是离线的平台比如传统的汽车和家电，将面临被颠覆的命运。我们还预计当前在快速增长的一些行业会面临增速放缓，比如中低端酒精饮料，基本必需品，和传统家庭用品。\n 五大驱动因素和可能的风险点\n下一个十年内中国消费市场规模增长和模式演化的五大驱动因素：\n（1）  收入-- 变成高收入国家的过程中通常伴随着服务类消费的稳定增长。\n根据我们的计算，到2030年，人均可支配收入将从现在的6000美元翻倍到12000美元。从国际经验来看，当人均可支配收入达到8000-10000美元时，服务消费的份额会稳定增长，未来十年中，中国服务消费的年均复合增长率有望达到9.2%，超过商品消费的6.7%。\n该趋势可能与以下两个因素有关：\n1，二胎全面开放之前，中国的计划生育政策导致人口老龄化加剧，增加了高龄人口的护理负担，如今，这一现象很可能会转化成为更多的服务消费需求。\n2，2020年的新冠疫情促使公众对大数据等技术的认知度进一步加深，这一年可能成为技术大规模使用的拐点，而伴随着基础技术的广泛应用，服务的门槛也会不断降低。\n（2）人口特性–最重要的世代转换发生在2-3年内\n过去几十年中国人口政策的变化导致人口在各个年龄层的分布不均匀；过去几十年中国经济的快速变迁也导致收入水平在各个年龄层之间的分布跟普通的经济体不太一样。\n根据我们的研究，到2030年，人口分布最集中的两个年龄段分别是35到44岁和55岁以上。\n而从收入水平的角度看，届时这两个年龄层也恰好是可支配收入最高的两个年龄段。从消费行为角度看，35到44岁人群的主要消费支出集中在家庭需要，而55岁以上则主要是老龄化和退休人群。\n基于这样的分析，我们得出结论，认为中国消费市场将从2020年的以年轻人为主力过渡到2030年的以家庭需求和退休计划为主力的形态。\n（3）技术-中国独特的消费增长路径\n数字化也能从另一个角度有力地支持中国将变成消费驱动的经济体这样一个结论。\n数字化在中国极高的渗透率对toC公司的经营效率以及消费者和销售渠道之间的互动效率都有很大的提高。\n数字化也非常符合中国政府以超级智慧城市为目标的城镇化战略。这个战略希望用借助于5G,云计算，大数据，物联网和人工智能这样一些数字技术实现更快、更安全、更环保、更宜居的城市社区。\n具体地说，我们看到两种不同的促进消费的趋势：\n1.传统经济的数字化：这会整体上提升运营效率并增强家庭的消费能力。\n2.超级智慧城市中新的生活方式：下一代技术的广泛应用可以支持随时随地的消费。这些技术包括：超级APP，基于物联网的智能家居，人工智能和大数据分析。\n（4）政策--政府支持以释放消费潜力\n中国的14个五年计划将专注于发展国内需求驱动的可持续的增长，以应对多极化的后新冠世界，也在努力地推进经济内循环战略以释放中国的消费潜力。\n日本在1990年人口开始老龄化的时候，城镇化率已经达到77%，家庭储蓄率处在17%这样一个相对低的水平。\n而中国目前的城镇化率只有61%，家庭储蓄率处在35%的较高水准，看起来可挖掘的消费潜力还非常巨大。\n所以我们预计在未来数年中会看到供给端和需求端都会有各种措施来消除消费瓶颈。供应端的措施包括提升新基建、升级高铁网络、为消费回岸提供便利。需求端的措施则包括提高社会福利的覆盖率、降低收入不平等、以及促进职业培训。\n（5）文化-来自于消费者价值观的影响\n不同国家之间的文化差异可能是导致不同的消费行为的重要原因。买什么，在哪里买，甚至怎么买，中国的消费者和西方国家的消费者，甚至亚洲其他国家的消费者的行为都可能不懂。\n虽然全球化为当代中国的生活方式带来了很多西方元素，但是我们仍然可以看到中国的消费者根植于中国独特的本地文化。\n1.非常看重家庭纽带，愿意为家庭成员提供相当大的金钱上的支持。\n2.消费的时候经常会有长远的目标。\n3.不同年龄层之间生活方式有显著的差异（比如在线平台的使用和外出旅行需求）\n\n可能的风险点：\n（1）针对集成技术平台的反垄断措施：服务相关消费的快速渗透和增长高度依赖于集成化的互联网技术平台。政府发布的反垄断政策旨在防止大型科技公司对市场的垄断，促进健康的市场竞争，但是过于激进的政策也有可能延宕服务相关消费的增长。\n（2）消费信贷的收紧：政策制定者最近升级了对互联网小贷和消费信贷平台的监管，但是我们认为对消费的影响应该不大，因为中国家庭资产负债表整体看上去还很健康。但是如果政策对消费信贷进一步收紧，甚至影响到银行渠道的话，那可能会对消费的增长形成负面影响。\n（3）相对迟缓的社会保障改革推进：我们相信更普遍和均匀的社保覆盖，尤其是在那些关键的都市圈里，会有效地降低人们为应对未来的不确定性而存起来的钱，从而促进消费。因此，在这些方面的改革的推进如果比预期要慢，则会影响消费潜力的释放。\n（4）针对大数据的隐私顾虑：中国拥有的一大优势是在建设智慧城市过程中在消费者数据收集方面面临较低的阻力。如果大众对数据隐私更加关注，或者国际间数据监管协调机制面临升级，则会导致对基于大数据分析的诸多新技术在消费领域应用的限制。不过，在新冠疫情期间个人定位技术和健康码的广泛应用在一定程度上提高了大众对大数据应用的的接受度，因此降低了这方面的风险。\n（5）无意中引发的社会问题：自动化和人工智能的广泛应用可能会导致比预想的要严重的失业问题，尤其是在建筑和低附加值制造领域。当然我们相信职业培训和快速增长的服务可以解决一部分问题，但是如果高科技的应用过快，失业导致的社会摩擦仍然有抑制消费增长的风险。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":838698947,"gmtCreate":1629388849789,"gmtModify":1676530026958,"author":{"id":"3549871285956389","authorId":"3549871285956389","name":"_无解_","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfd513996b2ed568c822a25e7a5f7284","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3549871285956389","idStr":"3549871285956389"},"htmlText":"Reboot 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