On Monday, at Nvidia’s annual GTC conference, CEO Jensen Huang projected $1 trillionin artificial-intelligence infrastructure demand between 2025 and 2027.
It’s an incredible figure that means business for a host of companies, including Nvidia. The biggest loser in Huang’s scenario, however, might just be Tesla, with Nvidia’s autonomous driving solutions chipping away at a core part of investors’ reason for owning stock in Elon Musk’s electric-vehicle maker.
Nvidia’s DRIVE platform aims to bring AI into the real world, turning any car into a robo-taxi, with its DRIVE AGX Thor computer and a suite of predefined sensors, including cameras and lidar (laser-based radar).
Uber Technologies announced plans to launch a fleet of DRIVE-enabled robo-taxis in 28 global markets by 2028. That could have been business for Tesla, which has its own self-driving technology and is manufacturing its Cybercab, a purpose-built robo-taxi it plans to sell to others and use in Tesla-owned fleets.
Uber isn’t the only issue. On Monday, China’s BYD, Korea’s Hyundai Motor, Japan’s Nissan, and others announced plans to adopt DRIVE for their autonomous driving programs. That will boost the number of cars with advanced driver assistance technology, creating more competition for Tesla’s Full Self-Driving product.
The importance of self-driving technology to Tesla stock is hard to overstate. EV sales in the U.S. and China are slumping. Tesla’s sales have declined for two consecutive years. Still, coming into Tuesday trading, Tesla stock was up 141% over the past two years, boosted by hopes that AI-trained robo-taxis would unlock a new era of earnings growth.
Morgan Stanley, for instance, values Tesla’s autonomous driving technology at about $270 a share, or about $1.2 trillion, based on Tesla’s 4.5 billion fully diluted shares outstanding.
That valuation implies hundreds of billions in earnings and free cash flow generated from self-driving tech. But if Nvidia commoditizes the technology, it could become just another feature on a car. Something that drivers and fleet owners will pay something for, but not unique enough to justify trillion-dollar valuations.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk doesn’t seem worried. Earlier in 2026, he said that he is “not losing any sleep about” Nvidia’s self-driving technology, adding “I genuinely hope [Nvidia] succeeds.”
Musk might not be worried, but investors should spend some time thinking about what ubiquitous self-driving technology means for Tesla’s potential AI-related profits.
Tesla stock was up 0.5% at $397.57 in early trading on Tuesday, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average were up 0.5% and 0.6%, respectively.
Shares might be helped by a Monday report from Stifel analyst Stephen Gengaro. He increased his 2027 estimate for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization to $21.9 billion from $20.6 billion, citing robo-taxi and autonomous vehicle progress.
Nvidia shares were down 0.5% after its GTC conference on Monday. Uber shares were up 5.5%.