To The Moon

The Passenger Vehicle Association has released its analysis of the nationwide passenger vehicle market for August 2026, revealing that new energy passenger vehicle production reached 1.528 million units last month, representing a 19.2% increase year-on-year and a 5.0% rise month-on-month. Cumulative production for the January-August period reached 9.758 million units, up 9.8% compared to the same timeframe last year.

Wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in August totaled 1.510 million units, up 16.4% year-on-year and 3.9% month-on-month, with the eight-month cumulative figure reaching 9.778 million units, an increase of 9.1%. Conventional fuel passenger vehicle wholesale sales hit 840,000 units in August, declining 29% year-on-year while growing 5% month-on-month. Retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.005 million units in August, falling 10.1% year-on-year but climbing 5.7% month-on-month, bringing the January-August retail total to 6.674 million units, down 12.1% year-on-year. Conventional fuel vehicle retail stood at 540,000 units in August, dropping 40% year-on-year with a 5.1% month-on-month increase.

The nationwide passenger vehicle market retail for August 2026 reached 1.541 million units, down 23.6% year-on-year and up 5.5% month-on-month, with cumulative retail for the year reaching 11.716 million units, a 20.8% decrease. The domestic market in August exhibited a pattern of weak overall recovery, stronger sequential performance, and extreme structural divergence, with the tail end of the off-season showing signs of bottoming out as structural adjustments within the industry continue to deepen.

The forecast team's prediction index for July stood at 19%, with the August mid-month satisfaction assessment for July at 17%. The prediction index for August has been set at 12%, reflecting historically low levels, though expectations suggest the satisfaction figures due for release in mid-September should show improvement.

The 5.5% month-on-month recovery in August retail resulted from multiple converging factors, including elevated oil prices suppressing demand, a relatively weak macroeconomic environment, rising policy expectations, and the stimulus from the Chengdu Auto Show. Ongoing geopolitical conflicts continue to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, keeping international oil prices elevated and volatile. Domestic gasoline prices in 2026 have accumulated increases exceeding 1,720 yuan per ton, including a 180 yuan rise since late July, significantly raising fuel vehicle operating costs and causing sustained sharp contraction in domestic fuel passenger vehicle consumption demand.

August's manufacturing PMI recovered 0.6 percentage points month-on-month to 49.8%, still below the boom-bust line, indicating that while terminal domestic demand has seen marginal improvement, the momentum remains limited. The early-to-mid August heat-related factory holidays suppressed dealership foot traffic, while the late-month Chengdu Auto Show helped lift market sentiment, and month-end sales drives pulled daily retail figures upward, with terminal orders and traffic showing a pattern of weakness early and strength later in the month.

Additionally, following the implementation of new national safety standards for new energy vehicles, compliant products have been undergoing concentrated iterative launches. The raising of technical barriers is pushing the industry from price-based competition toward value-based competition. Combined with the July Politburo meeting's clear direction for enhanced fiscal efforts and the continued rollout of policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and boosting consumption, the market has found bottom support. This current market downturn represents a stage-specific structural fluctuation rather than a sector-wide trend deterioration.

In summary, the August 2026 passenger vehicle market displayed five prominent characteristics. First, total volume recovered month-on-month but remained under pressure year-on-year, with structural divergence amplified to extremes, as fuel vehicles experienced deep cooling while new energy vehicles led strongly, with high oil prices accelerating the pace of oil-to-electric substitution. Second, fuel vehicles contracted across the board, with August fuel vehicle retail declining over 40% year-on-year, nearly halving, though regular hybrid models proved relatively resilient. Third, new energy penetration continued breaking new records, with August new energy retail reaching 1.005 million units, down 10.1% year-on-year and up 5.7% month-on-month, achieving a penetration rate of 65.2%, another historic high. Fourth, exports continued playing a supporting role, effectively stabilizing manufacturer wholesale and production capacity, as August manufacturer wholesale reached 2.353 million units, declining only 5.3% year-on-year with a 4.5% month-on-month increase, with wholesale growth outpacing retail growth by 18.3 percentage points. Fifth, industry inventories continued declining, with high oil prices clearly impacting fuel vehicles, leaving dealers under significant survival pressure with weak confidence, and the distribution channel remaining under sustained pressure amid weak wholesale and retail performance patterns.

August fuel vehicle retail declined 40% year-on-year, with pure fuel vehicles down 45% and regular hybrids up 10%. Among fuel vehicles, domestic brands fell 45%, mainstream joint ventures dropped 40%, and luxury brands declined 33%, all suffering uniformly from the impact of high oil prices. New energy vehicle retail in August fell 10.1% year-on-year, with domestic brands down 11%, mainstream joint ventures up 35%, and luxury brands down 12%. Domestic A00-class economy electric vehicles experienced severe retail declines due to unfavorable subsidy policy impacts.

Domestic brand retail reached 1.08 million units in August, down 19% year-on-year and up 4% month-on-month, with domestic brands capturing a 69.9% share of domestic retail, a 4.1 percentage point increase year-on-year. Overall, domestic brands showed relatively stable performance in both the new energy and export markets. Mainstream joint venture brand retail reached 310,000 units, down 35% year-on-year and up 5% month-on-month. German brands held a 12.5% retail share in August, down 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, while Japanese brands held 10.9%, down 1.4 percentage points. American brands captured a 5.6% market retail share, down 0.04 percentage points year-on-year. Lower-volume joint venture automakers are gradually regaining vitality.

Luxury vehicle retail reached 150,000 units in August, down 26% year-on-year and up 22% month-on-month. With luxury vehicle suggested retail prices reasonably adjusting back, luxury brands achieved a 10% retail share in August, declining only 0.3 percentage points year-on-year.

Regarding exports, according to the association's data, August passenger vehicle exports, including complete vehicles and CKD kits, reached 888,000 units, up 77.8% year-on-year and down 4.2% month-on-month, accounting for 38% of manufacturer sales, compared to 41% last month and 20% in the same period of 2025. New energy vehicles comprised 58.4% of total exports in August, a significant 18 percentage point increase year-on-year. Domestic brand exports reached 780,000 units, up 82% year-on-year, while joint venture and luxury brand exports totaled 108,000 units, up 53%.

On the production front, August passenger vehicle production reached 2.348 million units, down 4.5% year-on-year and up 5.7% month-on-month. Luxury brand production declined 24% year-on-year with a 2% month-on-month increase, joint venture production fell 26% year-on-year but rose 14% month-on-month, and domestic brand production increased 4% year-on-year with a 4% month-on-month gain.

Wholesale figures show nationwide passenger vehicle manufacturer wholesale at 2.353 million units in August, down 5.3% year-on-year and up 4.5% month-on-month, with wholesale growth exceeding retail growth by 18.3 percentage points, driven by the surge in exports. Domestic automaker wholesale reached 1.822 million units, up 5% year-on-year and 5% month-on-month. Mainstream joint venture wholesale totaled 333,000 units, down 32% year-on-year with a 6% month-on-month increase, while luxury vehicle wholesale reached 200,000 units, down 24% year-on-year and 3% month-on-month. The wholesale landscape among major manufacturers continued to shift, with companies including SAIC Passenger Vehicle, Leapmotor, Arcfox, Li Auto, GAC Aion, and Beijing Automotive achieving year-on-year growth exceeding 20%.

Market concentration increased further in August, with seven manufacturers achieving wholesale volumes above 100,000 units, compared to five last month and six in the same period last year, collectively holding a 59.1% market share, up from 50% last month and matching the 50% from a year ago. Manufacturers with wholesale volumes between 50,000 and 100,000 units held a 15.0% share, down from 19% last month and 23% in the prior-year period, while those with 10,000 to 50,000 units held 23.9%, compared to 27% last month and 25% last year.

Regarding inventories, given the highly cautious production arrangements in August, manufacturer wholesale exceeded production by 5,000 units, while monthly domestic wholesale fell 76,000 units below domestic retail. This year has been marked by notable inventory reduction, with total passenger vehicle industry inventories declining by 730,000 units over January-August, compared to reductions of 310,000 units in the same period of 2025, 760,000 units in 2024, and 200,000 units in 2023.

New energy vehicle production reached 1.528 million units in August, up 19.2% year-on-year and 5.0% month-on-month, with cumulative production reaching 9.758 million units through August, up 9.8%. Wholesale sales totaled 1.510 million units, up 16.4% year-on-year and 3.9% month-on-month, bringing the eight-month total to 9.778 million units, up 9.1%. Conventional fuel passenger vehicle wholesale reached 840,000 units, down 29% year-on-year and up 5% month-on-month. Retail of new energy passenger vehicles hit 1.005 million units, down 10.1% year-on-year and up 5.7% month-on-month, with cumulative retail at 6.674 million units, down 12.1%. Conventional fuel vehicle retail stood at 540,000 units, down 40% year-on-year and up 5.1% month-on-month. New energy passenger vehicle manufacturer exports reached 518,000 units in August, up 154.7% year-on-year and down 5.0% month-on-month, with cumulative exports of 3.329 million units over January-August, up 135.1%. Conventional fuel passenger vehicle exports totaled 369,000 units, up 25% year-on-year and down 3% month-on-month.

Looking at wholesale penetration, new energy vehicles achieved a 64.2% penetration rate among manufacturers in August, a 12 percentage point improvement over August 2025. Domestic brand new energy penetration reached 74.3%, luxury brands reached 53.1%, and mainstream joint venture brands rose to 15.7%. Pure electric wholesale sales totaled 1.032 million units, up 25.9% year-on-year and 6.8% month-on-month, while plug-in hybrid sales reached 386,000 units, up 3.1% year-on-year and down 0.3% month-on-month. Range-extended vehicle wholesale totaled 93,000 units, down 10.9% year-on-year and 8.0% month-on-month. The August new energy wholesale structure showed pure electric vehicles accounting for 68.3%, up 5.3 percentage points year-on-year and 1.9 points month-on-month, plug-in hybrids at 25.6%, down 3.4 points year-on-year and 1.1 points month-on-month, and range-extended vehicles at 6.1%, down 1.9 points year-on-year and 0.8 points month-on-month.

B-class electric vehicle wholesale reached 303,000 units, up 24% year-on-year and 1% month-on-month, representing 29% of pure electric share, down 0.6 percentage points from the prior-year period. The A00-class economy electric vehicle segment faces significant market pressure, with August A00-class wholesale at 61,000 units, down 51% year-on-year and up 17% month-on-month, capturing only 6% of pure electric share, a substantial 9.3 percentage point decline year-on-year. A0-class wholesale reached 365,000 units, comprising 35% of pure electric share, up 12.2% year-on-year, while A-class electric vehicles totaled 252,000 units at 24% share, down 3.3 percentage points year-on-year. From a long-term adoption perspective, economy electric vehicles hold the greatest growth potential, as only widespread adoption of entry-level electric vehicles can truly drive sustainable incremental growth in the passenger vehicle market.

Twenty-one models achieved wholesale volumes exceeding 20,000 units in August, up from 18 last month, including BYD Yuan UP with 64,170 units, BYD Song with 63,637 units, Geely Xingyuan with 60,955 units, Model Y with 55,697 units, BYD Seagull with 36,106 units, Bin Yue with 33,515 units, Chery Tiggo 7 with 32,930 units, Leapmotor A10 with 32,214 units, Fangcheng Bao Tai 7 with 30,572 units, Model 3 with 30,469 units, BYD Dolphin with 29,147 units, Chery JAECOO J5 with 28,800 units, Wuling Bingo with 25,602 units, MG 4 EV with 23,454 units, BYD Seal 06 with 23,002 units, Qiyuan Q05 with 22,680 units, Jetour Traveler with 21,460 units, Deepal S05 with 21,002 units, Starship 7 with 20,834 units, BYD Yuan PLUS with 20,380 units, and Leapmotor B10 with 20,011 units. New energy models dominate this list.

In terms of retail, new energy vehicles achieved a 65.2% penetration rate in domestic passenger vehicle retail during August, a 9.9 percentage point increase year-on-year and a 0.1 percentage point rise month-on-month. Within domestic retail, new energy penetration among domestic brands reached 83.9%, luxury brands achieved 38.9%, while mainstream joint venture brands saw penetration rise to only 13.4%. Looking at monthly new energy retail share, domestic brands held 63.7% in August, a 6.1 percentage point decline year-on-year, mainstream joint ventures held 4.3%, up 0.7 percentage points, and new forces captured 26.0%, with Leapmotor and NIO among the brands driving a 5.5 percentage point year-on-year increase in new force share.

On exports, new energy passenger vehicle exports reached 518,000 units in August, up 154.7% year-on-year and down 5.0% month-on-month, accounting for 58.4% of passenger vehicle exports, an 18 percentage point increase year-on-year. Pure electric vehicles comprised 63.4% of new energy exports, compared to 66.0% in the prior-year period, with A00 and A0-class pure electric vehicles accounting for 56.5% of pure electric exports, up from 45.2% last year. As China's new energy vehicle scale advantages become apparent and market demand expands, an increasing number of Chinese-made new energy brand products are going global, with overseas recognition continuously rising. Plug-in hybrids accounted for 32.9% of new energy exports, up from 31.7% last year, while range-extended vehicles comprised 3.7%, up from 2.2%. Despite some external interference from certain countries, domestic plug-in hybrid exports to developing nations are growing rapidly with promising prospects. Leading performers in August new energy exports included BYD with 184,446 units, Geely Automobile with 69,910 units, Chery Automobile with 68,431 units, Tesla China with 36,119 units, Changan Automobile with 28,323 units, SAIC Passenger Vehicle with 24,991 units, Leapmotor with 18,255 units, and SAIC-GM-Wuling with 17,376 units. Regarding overseas system development, some domestic brands show strong CKD export proportions with excellent internationalization performance, including Great Wall Motor at 48.5%, SAIC-GM-Wuling at 36.4%, Lingtu Automobile at 16.6%, and SAIC Passenger Vehicle at 15.9%.

Among automakers, new energy passenger vehicle companies showed strong overall performance in August, with BYD's dual-drive strategy combining pure electric and plug-in hybrid technologies cementing its leading position among domestic brands. Plug-in hybrids from BYD, Geely, Chery, and others continued demonstrating robust performance. With domestic automakers implementing multi-pronged new energy strategies, the market base continues expanding, with 19 manufacturers achieving monthly new energy wholesale volumes exceeding 10,000 units, two fewer than the prior-year period and one fewer than last month, collectively accounting for 93.6% of total new energy passenger vehicle volume. Leading manufacturers included BYD with 432,684 units, Geely with 173,675 units, Chery with 115,245 units, Leapmotor with 103,129 units, Tesla China with 86,166 units, Changan with 75,788 units, SAIC-GM-Wuling with 70,941 units, SAIC Passenger Vehicle with 57,728 units, Great Wall with 40,695 units, XPeng with 39,107 units, Li Auto with 37,679 units, NIO with 35,836 units, GAC Aion with 33,694 units, Xiaomi Automobile with 30,153 units, Seres with 20,509 units, Dongfeng with 18,649 units, Arcfox with 17,094 units, GAC Toyota with 12,602 units, and SAIC-GM with 12,043 units. Enterprise brands achieving domestic new energy retail above 20,000 units included BYD with 233,943 units, Geely with 110,560 units, Leapmotor with 84,874 units, Changan with 57,874 units, SAIC-GM-Wuling with 53,087 units, Tesla China with 50,047 units, Chery with 46,391 units, Harmony Intelligent Mobility with 42,101 units, Li Auto with 37,679 units, NIO with 35,655 units, Great Wall with 33,531 units, XPeng with 30,982 units, Xiaomi with 30,153 units, SAIC Passenger Vehicle with 27,663 units, and GAC Aion with 24,510 units.

New forces captured a 26.0% retail share in August, up 5.5 percentage points year-on-year. Pure electric vehicles comprised 78.2% of new force model sales, substantially higher than the 68.2% recorded in the prior-year period, with the 100,000-150,000 yuan price segment within new force pure electric sales growing significantly. Independent new energy brands from traditional domestic automakers performed strongly as second-generation innovators, achieving a 15.1% share, up 2.3 percentage points year-on-year. Brands including Zeekr, Yipai Technology, Deepal, Arcfox, and Voyah demonstrated excellent performance.

Regular hybrid passenger vehicle wholesale reached 107,000 units in August, up 54% year-on-year and 10% month-on-month, with FAW Toyota at 36,403 units, GAC Toyota at 29,802 units, SAIC Passenger Vehicle at 16,304 units, Geely at 10,890 units, Dongfeng Honda at 4,126 units, Great Wall at 3,792 units, GAC Trumpchi at 2,422 units, Changan Ford at 1,917 units, and GAC Honda at 1,046 units. Domestic hybrids from SAIC Passenger Vehicle and Geely have emerged strongly in overseas markets.

Looking ahead to September 2026, with the Mid-Autumn Festival falling early on September 25th, September will have 22 working days, one fewer than the prior-year period. The market enters the traditional golden September and silver October consumption peak season, with terminal traffic expected to continue recovering. At the macroeconomic level, August's manufacturing PMI recovered month-on-month with stable CPI, presenting characteristics of marginal demand recovery and stabilizing overall volumes at low levels, providing bottom support for market recovery. However, September faces an extremely high base from the prior year, as the rush buying before subsidy termination in some regions drove retail to historic peaks in September 2025, and this high-base effect will further suppress this September's recovery.

Since late July, cumulative gasoline price increases have exceeded 830 yuan per ton this year, while new electric vehicle products grow increasingly attractive, with fuel vehicle consumption intentions continuing to be suppressed. Upstream raw material prices have moderated somewhat, and with the industry's anti-involution consensus deepening, upstream profits have surged. However, price pressure is transmitting from upstream to vehicle manufacturers, with operating pressure on vehicle companies continuing to intensify. On the policy front, trade-in subsidy policies continue strengthening this year, with subsidy volumes expected to trend lower early and higher late. Many local governments will further increase support in September, effectively driving market warming. With the trend toward larger electric vehicles becoming more pronounced, family travel opting for large electric vehicles offers exceptional value, and October's National Day holiday travel is expected to further boost large electric vehicle sales. With national standards for assisted driving and L3 intelligent driving products released, revisions to the intelligent driving provisions of the Road Traffic Law underway, and overseas autonomous ride-hailing advancing to new levels, assisted intelligent driving is transitioning from novelty to standard equipment, with low-cost high-intelligence technology being the key competitive factor. Consumer expectations for intelligent driving features will continue driving interest and purchase intentions for high-level intelligent driving models, potentially becoming a new driver of structural growth in the new energy vehicle market. With anti-involution efforts continuing to deepen, September's market is expected to sustain the sequential recovery trend, with year-on-year declines narrowing significantly once the high-base effect recedes.

Current passenger vehicle consumption displays four core characteristics. First, high oil prices continue suppressing fuel vehicle demand, accelerating oil-to-electric substitution, with new energy penetration operating above 65% and vehicle operating costs carrying increasing weight in consumer purchase decisions. Second, replacement demand is squeezing first-purchase demand, with consumer upgrading and downgrading coexisting, as B-class and above high-end models see robust demand while A-class and A00-class economy electric vehicles continue contracting due to complex factors. Third, new consumption demand driven by intelligent driving is forming, with consumer attention to AI intelligent driving features rising rapidly, and technological experience becoming the third most important purchase decision factor after range and charging. Fourth, the A-class market shows a clear trend toward pure electrification, with fast-charging technology improvements under high oil prices effectively driving A-class electric vehicle sales.

The automobile industry achieved a 3.6% profit margin during January-July 2026. Facing multiple challenges including complex international developments and domestic transformation pressures, the national economy got off to a good start with improved quality and efficiency, as equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing saw rapid profit growth and raw materials manufacturing achieved double-digit profit growth, laying a solid foundation for stable full-year economic performance. July 2026 automobile production reached 2.53 million units, flat year-on-year, with new energy vehicle production at 1.55 million units, up 30% with 61% penetration, and fuel vehicle production at 980,000 units, down 27%. July automobile industry revenue totaled 888.7 billion yuan, up 8.3% year-on-year, with costs at 795.7 billion yuan, up 10%, profits at 20.9 billion yuan, down 28%, and an industry profit margin of 2.4%.

For January-July 2026, automobile production reached 17.61 million units, down 3% year-on-year, with new energy vehicle production at 8.95 million units, up 10% with 51% penetration, and fuel vehicle production at 8.67 million units, down 14%. Industry revenue totaled 6.078 trillion yuan, up 2.7%, costs at 5.4058 trillion yuan, up 3.8%, profits at 216.2 billion yuan, down 20%, with an industry profit margin of 3.6%, still low relative to the 6.5% average profit margin of downstream industrial enterprises. While local governments have vigorously implemented two-new policies, gradually and effectively releasing domestic demand vitality, the improvement in automobile industry profitability has clearly lagged behind other consumer goods. This year, the automobile industry has been squeezed by upstream pressures with procurement costs remaining high, compounded by surging oil prices and profit explosions in non-ferrous metals and semiconductors, severe consumer wait-and-see attitudes at the terminal, and price competition, leading to continuously increasing operating pressure on automakers and significant impacts on high-quality development from upstream and downstream industries.

China's automobile exports reached 6.41 million units during January-July 2026, a 54% year-on-year increase, with July exports at 1.09 million units, up 57% year-on-year and 2% month-on-month, showing strong overall year-on-year performance and positive sequential trends. The main growth drivers remain high oil prices, enhanced competitiveness of Chinese products, and sustained demand growth from Global South markets. The top ten destinations for July 2026 automobile exports were Russia with 94,700 units, the United Kingdom with 65,245 units, Mexico with 55,727 units, Belgium with 52,078 units, Australia with 51,263 units, the Philippines with 39,936 units, Thailand with 28,598 units, Saudi Arabia with 25,731 units, Italy with 25,386 units, and Spain with 25,094 units. The top five markets by year-on-year volume increase were Russia with 45,486 units, the UK with 33,454 units, Australia with 26,829 units, Belgium with 19,653 units, and Spain with 14,233 units.

The top ten cumulative destinations for January-July complete vehicle exports were Russia with 542,857 units, Brazil with 427,673 units, the UK with 320,505 units, Australia with 289,086 units, Belgium with 271,808 units, Mexico with 265,882 units, the Philippines with 188,663 units, Italy with 180,256 units, the UAE with 168,569 units, and Algeria with 165,859 units, with the top five by volume increase being Russia with 312,897 units, Brazil with 252,324 units, the UK with 152,302 units, Australia with 121,197 units, and Algeria with 107,481 units. China's new energy vehicle exports reached 540,000 units in July 2026, up 85% year-on-year with solid month-on-month performance, bringing cumulative exports to 2.96 million units over January-July, up 72%.

The July 2026 export structure showed pure electric vehicles at 32%, up 3 percentage points year-on-year, plug-in hybrids at 18%, up 5 points, regular hybrids at 7%, flat, and pure fuel vehicles at 35%, down 8 points. The top ten destinations for July new energy vehicle exports were the UK with 51,411 units, Belgium with 49,400 units, Australia with 40,450 units, the Philippines with 36,843 units, Thailand with 27,976 units, South Korea with 17,788 units, Spain with 15,895 units, Indonesia with 15,800 units, Italy with 14,835 units, and Mexico with 12,387 units, with the top five by increase being the UK with 29,146 units, Australia with 24,099 units, Belgium with 19,248 units, Thailand with 14,827 units, and the Philippines with 13,518 units. The top ten cumulative new energy vehicle export destinations for January-July were Brazil with 306,534 units, Belgium with 258,617 units, the UK with 232,671 units, Australia with 207,576 units, the Philippines with 162,905 units, Thailand with 154,622 units, Germany with 95,576 units, Italy with 94,338 units, South Korea with 93,218 units, and Spain with 88,618 units, with the top five by increase being Brazil with 184,616 units, Australia with 122,843 units, the UK with 118,362 units, Belgium with 83,201 units, and Thailand with 81,124 units. China's new energy commercial vehicle exports for January-July 2026 exceeded expectations, with plug-in hybrids and regular hybrids replacing pure electric vehicles as new growth points, particularly with strong pure electric truck export performance becoming a highlight. Restored shipping capacity contributed to the July export surge. Chinese new energy vehicle exports primarily target Western Europe and Central and South American markets, while Middle East markets remain constrained.

According to World Automotive Organization statistics, global automobile production continues growing, reaching 96.38 million units in 2025, a 4% increase from 92.72 million in 2024, with China accounting for 35.4% of world production. Global automobile sales reached 96.89 million units in 2025, up 6% year-on-year. July 2026 world automobile sales reached 8.24 million units, up 5%, bringing January-July sales to 56.11 million units, up 3%. Given negative year-start sales growth in the US and Chinese markets, 2026 January-July world market growth has not been strong. China achieved a 35.4% share of world automobiles in 2025, but this retreated to 31.4% in early 2026. China's automobile sales declined considerably in early 2026, and while this year's subsidy policies actually strengthened Chinese commercial vehicles, the market shows characteristics of weak passenger vehicles, strong commercial vehicles, and surging exports. Expectations remain for policies supporting low-end passenger vehicle consumption. As policy stimulus effects gradually reappear, the Chinese market is expected to strengthen through the second half of the year.

January-July 2026 global automobile sales grew 3%, with Chinese sales down 4%, US sales down 3%, India up 19%, Thailand up 14%, Russia up 8%, and Vietnam up 29%. Emerging markets are driving better performance. With the East rising and West falling, international brands other than Toyota, Hyundai-Kia, Suzuki, and Tata experienced significant share declines in 2026. Relative to 2019, the rising share of Chinese domestic brands has substantially increased China's global vehicle share. Geely, BYD, Chery, SAIC, and Changan have performed strongly. Global electrification trends have also led to progressive weakening of some international automakers, with international brand shares showing comprehensive major declines except for Hyundai-Kia and Suzuki benefiting from strong Indian market conditions.

World automobile sales reached 56.11 million units during January-July 2026, with new energy vehicles reaching 13.52 million units. The new energy share reached 25.1%, with pure electric at 16.8%, plug-in hybrids at 7.3%, and regular hybrids at 8.1%, representing excellent performance. With European new energy trends substantially recovering, overseas new energy vehicle sales in July reached 780,000 units, up 29%, with January-July overseas sales at 5.11 million units, growing 30%, approaching the average levels of the previous two years. US new energy vehicle sales reached 104,000 units in July 2026, down 20% year-on-year, with January-July US new energy sales at 710,000 units, down 29%. European new energy passenger vehicle sales reached 3.86 million units in 2025, adding 960,000 units over the previous year with 33% growth. Preliminary statistics show European new energy passenger vehicle sales at 410,000 units in July, up 38%, bringing cumulative January-July sales to 2.79 million units, up 34%.

The global new energy vehicle penetration rate shows a rapid upward trend, reaching 13.1% in 2022, 15.9% in 2023, 19.5% in 2024, 23.6% in 2025, and 24.1% in 2026, with Germany at 32.6%, Norway at 81%, the UK at 35%, while the US stands at only 7% and Japan at only 4%, demonstrating the extreme imbalance in global new energy development. China's new energy passenger vehicle world share was 68.3% in 2025, reaching 62% for January-July 2026, with July achieving a solid 65.3%. China's world pure electric share stands at 58% for 2026, with early-year performance temporarily weaker but recovering to 62% by July. China achieved an ultra-high 76.4% world plug-in hybrid share in 2025, maintaining a strong 71% for 2026, reaching 74% in July, demonstrating exceptional performance in the global plug-in hybrid market. Domestic brand new energy passenger vehicles achieved a 15.8% overseas market sales share in 2025, improving rapidly, and this has further increased substantially in 2026, reaching 28% in July.