为什么美国的利率在2021年只可能小幅上升

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为什么美国的利率在2021年只可能小幅上升

金十数据2021-02-07

Russel Investments认为，在美国经济完全复苏之前，美联储还将继续干预国债市场。此前，美联储宣布将其隔夜利率保持在零附近的水平。这符合预期，因为数以百万计的美国人仍然没有工作，通货膨胀率仍然低于目标，而美联储希望在上调利率前使通胀达到预期目标。Russel Investments预计在2024年年初之前，美联储可能撤回对经济的支撑。长期利率的水平不仅取决于美联储今年的预期举措，还...

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磐石533
·2021-02-08
?
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雁翔云天
·2021-02-08
關注着
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hhyw
·2021-02-07
別起啦????
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仁者无敌888
·2021-02-07
[難過]
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Investments称，有很多人误解了通胀的原因。有些人可能听说过津巴布韦的恶性通货膨胀，因此认为印钞会导致失控的通货膨胀和货币贬值。但实际上，通胀的发生过程有点复杂。简单来说，可以把通货膨胀理解为一种平衡供给和需求的方式。比如从微观层面来说，如果家长想给孩子买一台电子产品，那么他需要付出高于这台电子产品建议零售价的钱，因为相对于可供应的电子产品数量来说，市场的需求太大了，所以价格会被推高。在宏观层面上，经济学家使用总需求和总供给来描绘通货膨胀水平。总需求是消费者、企业和政府支出（即GDP）的函数；总供给是满足这种需求的人和机器的数量和质量的函数。下图描绘了产出缺口的情况，即一种比较当前需求与潜在供应的汇总指标。Russel Investments说，当这条线高于零的水平时，表明通胀压力正在累积。当这条线低于零的水平时，表明通缩压力占据主导地位。因此，通胀率在2020年初或2009年初（当时美联储在疯狂印钞，而美国政府实行大规模财政刺激措施）放缓的原因很简单，那就是总需求不足。02、通胀在明年之前不太可能持续上升Russel Investments表示，如今虽然有大规模的财政刺激措施，经济也逐渐复苏，但总需求仍然疲弱，特别是对于服务业的需求。Russel Investments预计，2021年经济的强劲增长将有助于美国比2008年金融危机时更快地摆脱当前的困境。另外，值得注意的是，随着更多与疫情相关的限制措施的取消，被压抑的消费需求正在释放，今年晚些时候通胀可能会在短期内飙升。鲍威尔在上周的美联储政策会议上也说了同样的话，他强调通胀的迅速飙升都将是短暂的，而不是持久的。Russel Investments对此表示认同，并认为持续的通胀压力最早也要到2022年才会出现。Russel Investments得出这一观点的原因是，他们的模型显示美国核心个人消费价格指数通胀指标（PCE）预期到今年年底将触及1.8%，该指标是美联储通常使用的衡量通胀的指标。而从上图可以看出，1.8%的水平低于美联储的通胀目标。在过去十年的大部分时间里，通胀率都低于美联储的目标水平。但美联储正试图使通胀率高于目标水平，因此这意味着美联储的宽松政策将持续更长的时间。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":389168756,"gmtCreate":1612738574575,"gmtModify":1704873663174,"author":{"id":"3573863078476577","authorId":"3573863078476577","name":"磐石533","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3acfdf718b918510c617d15517144155","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3573863078476577","authorIdStr":"3573863078476577"},"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/389168756","repostId":2109715977,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":389163262,"gmtCreate":1612737355956,"gmtModify":1704873660082,"author":{"id":"3554543753250021","authorId":"3554543753250021","name":"雁翔云天","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6198a1f9650cf49bbb49ecd27d0876f2","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3554543753250021","authorIdStr":"3554543753250021"},"htmlText":"關注着","listText":"關注着","text":"關注着","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/389163262","repostId":2109715977,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":389373200,"gmtCreate":1612702978500,"gmtModify":1704873580511,"author":{"id":"3561544476596136","authorId":"3561544476596136","name":"hhyw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62f8a12108672917c80685184f331b6f","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3561544476596136","authorIdStr":"3561544476596136"},"htmlText":"別起啦????","listText":"別起啦????","text":"別起啦????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/389373200","repostId":2109715977,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":389311353,"gmtCreate":1612684626772,"gmtModify":1704873501422,"author":{"id":"3568281367488341","authorId":"3568281367488341","name":"仁者无敌888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c44ec95b7d1254755739ff7e3388501b","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3568281367488341","authorIdStr":"3568281367488341"},"htmlText":"[難過]&nbsp;","listText":"[難過]&nbsp;","text":"[難過]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/389311353","repostId":2109715977,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":19,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}