* Major U.S. equity index futures dip modestly
* Euro STOXX 600 edges lower
* Bitcoin surges to a new record
* Dollar, crude down; gold rises
* U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield ~1.15%
Feb 9 - Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com
YOU KNOW BITCOIN CAN FALL RIGHT? RIGHT? (0922 EST/1422 GMT)
Turbocharged by the Tesla hype, bitcoin is trading around $46k a chip but it seems some investors haven't fully grasped how risky crypto is.
A January online survey of 1,134 UK cryptocurrency investors conducted by findoutnow on behalf of AJ Bell shows there's some kind of misunderstanding about the risks involved.
"30% of cryptocurrency investors are not willing to lose any of the money they’ve invested, which suggests they lack an appreciation of the potential downside of their investment", Laith Khalaf, an analyst at the investment platform.
"Only one in four cryptocurrency investors would be willing to lose 75% or more of their investment, which is not beyond the bounds of possibility, given the volatility of the asset class", he added.
Another interesting finding is that crypto buyers are not your regular mom and pop investor. 50% don't have a savings account or a pension.
AJ Bell's take on the survey in a nutshell?
"UK consumers seem to be playing Russian roulette with their money on the cryptocurrency markets".
Here's a chart from AJ Bell's survey showing how much of their capital UK buyers are ready to lose when buying crypto:
(Julien Ponthus)
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MICRO CAPS HAVING THEIR DAY (0900 EST/1400 GMT)
Small caps have certainly been garnering their fair share of attention of late. This as the small-cap iShares Russell 2000 ETF has handily outperformed the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
off the March 2020 bottom.
Indeed, the IWM has rallied as much as 138% off its March trough vs a 79% advance for the SPY.
That said, that gain in small caps pales in comparison to the rise in micro caps. The iShares Micro-cap ETF has surged about 177%.
This can be a double-edge sword as strong gains in the shares of companies that have a market capitalization of roughly $50 million to $300 million can suggest great confidence in the economic outlook, or it could indicate out-of-control animal spirits and rampant speculation.
In any event, with the recent outperformance of micro caps vs large caps, the IWC/SPY ratio is fast approaching a 15-year resistance line:
Thus, micro caps now face a big test, which could also have important implications for the overall market. A ratio failure at the resistance line could lead to the kind of multi-week divergence vs the SPY that has preceded significant market declines.
Conversely, a breakout would suggest potential for greater outperformance. That said, even in that event, given that the IWC/SPY ratio is now track to rise for a 6th straight week, and 13 out of the last 14 weeks, any downtick may raise a red flag.
(Terence Gabriel)
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(Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)