高盛“认错”：错估了美联储

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高盛“认错”：错估了美联储

华尔街见闻2021-03-18

美联储公布本周货币政策会议决议后，高盛承认其错估了美联储。该行此前对美联储货币政策进行预测时曾表示，预计到2023年联邦基金利率预期中值将有所上升，一度引起市场慌乱。美联储若发出短期加息信号，将引发整个利率体系的“重新定价”，势必影响风险资产。但如今证明，美联储这一预期中值继续保持不变。根据美联储预测，长期联邦基金利率预期中值为2.5%，去年12月预期为2.5%；2021年底到2023年底，联邦...

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Mrwyy
·2021-03-18
Jana
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梅西点球打飞
·2021-03-18
高盛：在任何時候高估任何東西
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联储货币政策委员会FOMC的委员一致同意，将政策利率联邦基金利率的目标水平保持在0-0.25%不变，并维持当前的政策前景特征和资产购买政策。本次会议声明继续重申新冠疫情对当前经济形势的严重影响，但相较之前，这次它承认了复苏步伐在此前放缓后“最近有所加快”。会议声明中也删除了关于油价下跌“抑制”通货膨胀的措辞，更明确地表述为“通货膨胀继续低于2%”。同时，FOMC将隔夜逆回购工具（RRP）单个对手限额从单日300亿美元提高至800亿美元。2. 《经济预测摘要》中对政策利率的预测中值保持不变，与我们加息的预期相左。然而，FOMC参会者表达了不同的观点，预计到2023年底至少加息一次的7名参会者中（此前是5人，而我行预计为11人），有6名预计会多次加息。此外，4名参会者预计会在2022年底加息（此前仅1人，而我行预计为2人）。联邦基金利率的中长期预测中值如预期一样维持在2.5%不变。3.美联储大幅上调了今年GDP预期，可能反映了美国经济救济法案的影响和公共卫生状况的改善。2021年GDP预期增速上调2.3个百分点（pp）至6.5%（2022年和2023年预期增速变化不大，分别较此前上调0.1pp和下调0.2pp)。虽然2021年的核心通货膨胀率（PCE）大幅上调0.4pp至2.2%，但其余预期并未显示出中期经济过热的迹象：到2023年的失业率预期仅下调0.2pp至3.5%，长期失业率下调0.1pp至4.0%；2023年PCE通胀预期上调0.1pp至2.1%，且只有一名参会者预计会超过2.2%。最后，就高盛修正后的美联储政策反应预期而言，Hatzius写道：“3月份的预测表明，一些FOMC成员设定的通胀门槛高于2.1%。我们仍然预计，美联储将从2022年初开始缩减购债规模，联邦基金利率将保持不变，直到2024年上半年。”","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":324772224,"gmtCreate":1616035000668,"gmtModify":1704790020968,"author":{"id":"3561886000100164","authorId":"3561886000100164","authorIdStr":"3561886000100164","name":"Mrwyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2ce878536f012f665bfed5bad723d18","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b073a07f77dbe6b3bec6b12311fde6bd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3561886000100164"},"htmlText":"Jana","listText":"Jana","text":"Jana","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/324772224","repostId":2120131537,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":324748710,"gmtCreate":1616034095330,"gmtModify":1704790004656,"author":{"id":"3521547763506220","authorId":"3521547763506220","authorIdStr":"3521547763506220","name":"梅西点球打飞","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d9e9ee5b672c7e226d0fa33581c3ed5","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3521547763506220"},"htmlText":"高盛：在任何時候高估任何東西","listText":"高盛：在任何時候高估任何東西","text":"高盛：在任何時候高估任何東西","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/324748710","repostId":2120131537,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}