特斯拉事故调查，真相离我们还有多远？

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特斯拉事故调查，真相离我们还有多远？

财经十一人2021-04-28

上海车展特斯拉车主维权事件事发已超过一周，随着部分重要数据的披露，对此事的关注焦点已从特斯拉傲慢与否转向对事故原因的探究。今天这篇文章，呈现的就是财经十一人对真相的探寻。这些真相事关特斯拉的产品质量，以及消费者和特斯拉车主据此所能做出的选择。最后，我们附上了对特斯拉的建议。一、特斯拉与维权车主的最新回应首先，还是让我们来看一下特斯拉与河南安阳维权车主张女士的最新回应。 4月22日，19点...

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Comment（24）

CKWAI
·2021-04-29
很好
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AndrewChong
·2021-04-29
好啊
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YongGuang
·2021-04-29
個例吧...
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1
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- YongGuang:
  Alright
  2021-04-29
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- YongGuang:
  会不会是2恶意竞争导致的炒作啊
  2021-04-29
  Reply
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NELSONCY
·2021-04-29
車紅是非多! 多少適合買進啊?
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1
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hhyw
·2021-04-29
爲什麼還有那麼多公司要進軍汽車業？???利潤有那麼可觀嗎？??
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- hhyw:
  疯狂，太疯狂了?
  2021-04-29
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- grrrr_nt:
  Because there is no "clear winner" yet, so everyone is trying to grab onto whatever market share they can get!
  2021-04-29
  Reply
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holdparty
·2021-04-29
電車提速快，每個人的駕駛習慣不一樣，能否駕馭這麼快的車還不一定。再加上路況不同，出現事故的概率很高的。
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Yucy_TG_Mini
·2021-04-29
全面
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1
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高明兴_8399
·2021-04-29
樹大招飛
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1
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- SunnyLeo:
  ?
  2021-04-29
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神明保佑
·2021-04-29
倒拉
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Cheegan
·2021-04-29
?
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1
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powe
·2021-04-29
真相往往在眼前卻沒有人願意相信
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1
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Raymondtang
·2021-04-29
Gg
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1
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Zmhell
·2021-04-29
維權要是有理，請解釋一下上訪羣衆[開心] 要是沒理，國家幹嘛狂批？
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鸟语花香在坡县
·2021-04-28
[微笑]
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2
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虎老老老
·2021-04-28
貌似客觀，結果又是特馬德黑文！特斯拉這波流量算是養活了不少這類人！?
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宁可十年不将军
·2021-04-28
我本來不同意，不過他們一直加錢，加錢
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3
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- hhyw:
  钱钱钱钱
  2021-04-29
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初吻给了奶嘴
·2021-04-28
軟件bug的可能性很高
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Yuyi
·2021-04-28
?
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1
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- Yuyi:
  666
  2021-04-29
  Reply
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- Yuyi:
  ?
  2021-04-29
  Reply
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- kimxuan:
  回复
  2021-04-28
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飞鸟跌穴298884
·2021-04-28
嗯，一切按劇本走。
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- Yuyi:
  ?
  2021-04-28
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Lucifer王祥雨
·2021-04-28
中國車企的惡性競爭，懂得都懂
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没有拒绝第三方鉴定，只是不接受特斯拉指定的第三方鉴定机构。\n在双方给出最新的回复之后，财经十一人第一时间联系了特斯拉方面，问询了数据真实性和完整性，得到的回复是，“我们是希望车主能尽快同意做检测，这样数据+检测结果就能给大家一个事实真相了”，“有人质疑数据真实性，其实这些数据都是要上传国家监管平台的，谁会蠢到在这方面造假”，“更详细的在车主那”。\n对于前两段回复，笔者是比较认同的，在数据上作假，对于特斯拉来说成本太高，收益太低，完全不合逻辑，提供给公众的数据，真实性存疑的概率极低，不过完整性的确存疑，目前的数据不够完整，下文还会专门讨论。\n另外最后那句“更详细的在车主那”，指的是EDR数据。Event Data Recorder车辆事件数据记录系统，简称EDR，可以看做是汽车上的黑匣子，会记录车辆在事故发生前后的多项关键数据。这个EDR数据并不会全部上传，特别是事故发生后，由于车辆损伤，也无法保证上传云端的数据是准确完整的，所以只有通过专门的解码电脑连接车辆的EDR，读取其加密数据来获取完整的原始数据。\n在接下来，不论是特斯拉补充更完整的云端数据，还是车主张女士同意鉴定，读取EDR数据，想要复原事故经过，完整的数据必不可少。\n但是基于现有数据，我们有能够获取哪些事实呢?\n二、数据给了什么，缺了什么?\n针对目前特斯拉给出的这份相对详细的数据，各方专家和伪专家都有大量解读，财经十一人引用的是制动系统专业人士，博世工程技术中国区电子稳定系统标定工程师罗新雨的分析，罗工参与过至少8款不同车型的制动系统标定工作。\n分析的原始视频超过24分钟，请大家自行通过罗工的官方微博@大众风volkswind获取，财经十一人在学习过罗工的数据解析之后，总结出这套数据的几个有效信息，当然还有重要的数据缺失以及疑点。\n首先，还是将特斯拉公布的原始数据附上，供给有意研究的朋友使用。\n\n罗工在分析这份数据后，得出的主要结论：\n1. 刹车系统正常工作，ABS正常工作，自动紧急刹车正常工作，刹车主泵的压力在持续上升，数据可以证明整个刹车系统的硬件工作正常。\n2. 从开始制动到触发ABS时间较长，23秒17踩下制动踏板，26秒09前后轮ABS才全部触发，至于用时将近3秒才触发ABS，是由于踩踏力度不够，还是踏板踩不动，目前数据不足，无法给出结论。\n主要疑点：\n1. 先触发的自动紧急制动，然后才出现前撞预警信号，这不符合逻辑。按照逻辑，一定是先预警要发生碰撞，提醒驾驶员，然后在车辆计算机判断必须刹车后，才会启动自动紧急制动，目前的数据中，这是一大疑点。\n2. 在刹车主泵已经有了很高压力，也就是刹车力度很大的情况下，实际减速数值很低，在触发ABS之后，车辆减速的幅度仅有常规紧急刹车的50%~70%，这种减速不足给驾驶员带来的直观感受就是刹车失灵。\n想要回答上面的疑点，这份数据当中主要缺少：\n1. 刹车踏板的行程，用来判断驾驶员是否真的踩下刹车，踩踏深度有多少。\n2. iBooster助力系统工作状态，判断助力是否正常，回应车主的主要投诉：刹车很硬，踩不动。\n3. 路面状况，用来回答为什么刹车主泵压力很大的情况下，依然刹不住。\n4. 电机扭矩，用来回答是否有制动系统以外的因素干扰了刹车的正常效果。\n5. 四轮轮速，用来回答ABS的实际工作效果。\n这五点当中，除了第三点，其他四点都能通过EDR或特斯拉补充来获得，因此相信随着事态的进一步发展，我们必然距离真像越来越近。而在接近这次事故的真像之前，4月26日的一段视频，让我们首先明确了一个真相：特斯拉是否刹不住存疑，但踩不动实锤了。\n三、踩不动的刹车\n4月26日晚17点整，以10万公里双车耐久对比测试闻名的车评人王垠在自己的多个社交媒体平台发布了一段视频，在这段视频中，王垠的团队在测试特斯拉Model 3的过程中，出现了刹车踏板非正常变硬的现象，并且被视频全程记录了下来。\n在这里，首先要澄清一个事实，刹车踏板在某些条件下是会变硬的，比如触发ABS的时候，刹车弹脚，踏板变硬，这是正常现象，还有车辆启动之前，因为车辆没有通电，电动助力系统没有工作，刹车踏板也会很硬，这些都属于正常现象。\n但是像视频所示，伴随动能回收功能受限出现刹车踏板变硬，这就绝对不属于正常现象了。\n在视频上线之后，我们也第一时间联系了王垠团队，提出了几个比较关键的问题：\n问：诱发视频中刹车踏板变硬的具体工况细节可以介绍一下吗?如速度、路面材料、温度、何时缓解、何时恢复正常等?\n答：下坡过程出现能量回收受限的提示，之后试驾工程师将车辆刹停，此过程感到刹车踏板较硬。之后倒车上坡，前进下坡，停在路边，填写测试日报。坡道路面稍微粗糙，坡上的速度不超过25km/h。工程师填写报告时，提示消失，车辆恢复。\n问：除了视频中的这次，刹车踏板变硬的现象在测试过程中重现过吗?\n答：日常试驾时，试驾编辑汇报过一次，在普通公路巡航状态下出现，动能回收受限，刹车踏板变硬，当时没有记录条件，因此没有在视频中体现。\n问：如果重现过的话，重现环境是否相似?\n答：实验还在进行中，我们会密切关注类似现象的重现的环境和场景。\n问：动能回收受限或关闭的情况在测试中出现频繁吗?\n答：目前还不常见。\n问：哪些工况会大概率诱发动能回收系统受限或关闭?\n答：在测试场中出现时，路面不十分平整。\n王垠团队的回答证实了一个最为重要的事实，刹车踏板变硬会重复出现，当前已经发生的两次变硬都是伴随动能回收功能受限出现的。就像视频中王垠所说，专业汽车编辑对于刹车变硬是有一定应对经验的，知道发生这样的情况只要用力还能踩的下去，但普通消费者在遇到这种情况时，惊慌失措是正常反应，如果是在紧急状况下发生踏板变硬，那消费者的反应就更加难以估计。\n至于发生这种现象的原因，一位自动驾驶企业技术负责人告诉《财经》记者，比起刹车硬件有问题，此次特斯拉刹车失灵事件更可能是电子助力刹车系统的逻辑问题。“特斯拉的硬件都是最好的”，然而，“好的硬件和软件整合成一套系统后，形成对刹车的操作和交互逻辑可能和人在一些极端情况下的直觉反应是违背的”。\n在特斯拉的历史上，通过软件手段影响刹车性能有过先例。2018年5月，美国权威的《消费者报告》将刚上市的Model 3列为不推荐购买等级，原因就是在实际测试中，Model 3从60英里/小时到静止的制动距离长达46米，比F150这种大皮卡都长。\n马斯克当时就在推特上怼了《消费者报告》，表示要么是你们用的车是早期版本，要么是路面不符合测试规定，反正不是产品的问题。随后表示可以通过Over the Air(OTA)无线升级来改进刹车性能。《消费者报告》也同意，可以在OTA之后进行第二次测试。\n在第二次测试中，Model 3的刹车距离缩短到了40米，当时《消费者报告》的测试总监Jake Fisher表示，“我在这岗位工作了19年，测试了上千款车型，第一次见识到有车能通过无线升级来大幅度地改善性能表现的。”\n既然特斯拉可以通过软件能力大幅度改进车辆的刹车性能，那么现在刹车系统因为软件存在Bug而发生故障自然也就不奇怪了。\n既然存在Bug，自然就需要打补丁，不过目前特斯拉的很多做法似乎并没有要积极修复问题，关于这一点，一位接近特斯拉的行业人士向财经十一人表示，近半年特斯拉的安全事故已经“过高了”。\n他认为，在此次车主维权事件中，特斯拉表现傲慢只是第一层错误。更严重的第二个错误是，这么多事故，特斯拉不可能不去认真分析原因，而分析后仍然不改，事故还在持续不断发生，那只有一个原因：改进的成本太高，因此选择不改，出了事故再说。“半年来不断累积的事故迟早要爆发。没有河南车主大闹车展，也会有河北车主怒砸特斯拉。”\n而且特斯拉的问题恐怕还不仅仅是刹车而已。\n四、除了刹车，还有幽灵加速、抢轮、起火\n除了刹车的问题，特斯拉在过去这一年时间里，还有多起目前尚无结论的安全事件，其中最具代表性的就是“幽灵”加速、抢轮、电池起火。\n“幽灵”加速的问题多次发生，前不久美国国家公路交通安全管理局给出了目前为止唯一的一份官方鉴定结论，认定所调查的超过246起特斯拉的事故中，都有证据证明事故是由错误使用踏板造成的。\n不过在我们与一位效力过多家汽车主机厂的电动系统测试资深工程师的交流中，他明确表示，在低速+转向的情况下，特斯拉的车主的确应该小心突然加速的问题，特斯拉的ESP存在扭矩补偿，也就是为了保持车身稳定，在没有踩加速踏板的时候，让电机输出动力。这位工程师表示，这种扭矩补偿在理论上无法排除突然加速的可能性。\n另外，关于抢轮，这是这几天仅次于刹车的另一大特斯拉热点话题。这个事情的起源是发生在广东的那次导致一人死亡的恶性事故，据当事人表示，当时方向盘打不动，车辆和驾驶员争抢方向盘控制权，即“抢轮”。\n之后，车评人，特斯拉车主陈震在微博上发视频证实，他在北京西四环中路华熙Live出口处主路出辅路的过程中，数次发生了车辆和驾驶员抢轮的问题，而且是在没有打开自动辅助驾驶，没有打开车道居中辅助的情况下，发生了抢轮现象。\n抢轮，归根结底依然是软件控制逻辑的问题，车辆会在某些特殊情况下判断有可能发生危险，为了避险，越过驾驶员接管车辆。这方面的问题其实很多特斯拉的车主群都有过抱怨，不过因为此前尚未发生严重事故，所以大家多是当做谈资而已。\n最后还有最为容易引发关注的起火问题，今年1月，上海地库发生的特斯拉起火事故的调查至今依然没有任何结论。广东发生的这次事故目前也高度怀疑从发生碰撞到起火燃烧，之间的时长不足5分钟，没有达到GB 38031-2020《电动汽车用动力蓄电池安全要求》的强制性要求。\n刹车踏板变硬实锤、抢轮现象频发、电池安全存疑，面对这样的特斯拉，车主和消费者能怎么办?特斯拉该怎么办?\n五、消费者能做什么，特斯拉该做什么?\n这里的两个问题，前一个可能是现在最难回答的一个，后一个可能是现在最好回答的一个。\n消费者能做什么?对于任何消费品，我们消费者能做的最多也就是用脚投票而已。现在，对于麻烦缠身的特斯拉，消费者最为理性的做法恐怕就是继续做一个“等等党”。之前等等党赢来的只有价格，现在这情况，等等党恐怕会赢的更多。\n未来一年，中国市场上产品力可以和特斯拉一较短长的产品将是全球最多的，自主品牌、国际大厂都将在中国市场投放大量新能源车，以前的等等党只是等降价，现在的等等党，等的是上新。\n而已经是特斯拉车主的消费者，现在应该是心情复杂。不断曝出的各种限制特斯拉车辆通行、停放的规定让这些车主在生活中忍受各种不便，再加上网络上各种对特斯拉车主不友好的言论，也让他们备受伤害。\n面对这样的环境，特斯拉该做什么呢?\n我认为，对车主，要尽最大所能补偿，不论是产品上的缺陷、还是公关上不恰当的操作，都让车主承受了额外的伤害和损失，特斯拉应该给予补偿。\n至于对其他消费者，特斯拉不光要拿出态度，更要拿出行动，积极解决目前发生的问题，比如已经实锤的刹车踏板变硬，抢轮，在无法快速通过软件升级根治问题之前，是否可以在屏幕提示，操作指南方面提供更完善的解决方案，比如动能回收系统受限，刹车踏板变硬的提示文字、音效以及应急操作指南，这些更新应该很容易快速实现。\n对消费者来说，让特斯拉低下高傲的头不是目的，真正解决问题才是目标。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":109041535,"gmtCreate":1619656363327,"gmtModify":1704727440496,"author":{"id":"3576460381606543","authorId":"3576460381606543","name":"CKWAI","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/114d4a21d215b59ce4a06920df73aed5","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3576460381606543","authorIdStr":"3576460381606543"},"htmlText":"很好","listText":"很好","text":"很好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/109041535","repostId":2130851376,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":109061083,"gmtCreate":1619655185542,"gmtModify":1704727401142,"author":{"id":"3573001575785747","authorId":"3573001575785747","name":"AndrewChong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c473911ad38ea4602faab9ef81c6976e","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3573001575785747","authorIdStr":"3573001575785747"},"htmlText":"好啊","listText":"好啊","text":"好啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/109061083","repostId":2130851376,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":109014893,"gmtCreate":1619654559212,"gmtModify":1704727381006,"author":{"id":"3577440999113647","authorId":"3577440999113647","name":"YongGuang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44506513dddf0624d6b604740dfba888","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577440999113647","authorIdStr":"3577440999113647"},"htmlText":"個例吧...","listText":"個例吧...","text":"個例吧...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/109014893","repostId":2130851376,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4172744,"gmtCreate":1619705211616,"gmtModify":1680786210228,"authorId":3577440999113647,"author":{"id":3577440999113647,"idStr":"3577440999113647","authorId":3577440999113647,"name":"YongGuang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44506513dddf0624d6b604740dfba888","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":109014893,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>Alright</u>","text":"<u>Alright</u>","html":"<u>Alright</u>"},{"id":4165506,"gmtCreate":1619654595120,"gmtModify":1680786098951,"authorId":3577440999113647,"author":{"id":3577440999113647,"idStr":"3577440999113647","authorId":3577440999113647,"name":"YongGuang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44506513dddf0624d6b604740dfba888","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":109014893,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"会不会是2恶意竞争导致的炒作啊","text":"会不会是2恶意竞争导致的炒作啊","html":"会不会是2恶意竞争导致的炒作啊"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":100746328,"gmtCreate":1619652725564,"gmtModify":1704727313410,"author":{"id":"3561972131402911","authorId":"3561972131402911","name":"NELSONCY","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/112cbb9b208a9fe85865c515b4aca3e6","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3561972131402911","authorIdStr":"3561972131402911"},"htmlText":"車紅是非多! 多少適合買進啊?","listText":"車紅是非多! 多少適合買進啊?","text":"車紅是非多! 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