华为遭过的罪，会在蔚来身上重演吗？

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华为遭过的罪，会在蔚来身上重演吗？

格隆汇2021-05-08

蔚来出海了。和小鹏一样，蔚来也选择了挪威作为第一站。为什么选择挪威？李斌直言：“挪威是一个对电动汽车非常友好的国家，比如取消了电动汽车的关税，车从中国出口过去，只需要支付一些运输费用，这是一个很现实的考虑；挪威的市场体量也比较合适，不是很大，也不是很小，挪威的汽车市场结构也比较健康，高端车、中端车总体上比较均衡，高端车不少，特斯拉在那里卖得就不错。” 但是话风一转，又略显沉重。 “今天，一个...

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Comment（21）

Derick 哈哈哈哈
·2021-05-09
nio的審計合規是一個救心丸。至少不會有中國審計合規風波。。至於要怎麼搞搞nio肯定不會像搞華爲那樣弄。海外機構和政府都不是傻子，保險公司和養老金往未來裏注，你覺得他們可能自己搞自己麼？至於什麼抑制發展，個人就是中國政府的支持程度和本身芯片技術這塊吧。萬一政府把nio棄了可能什麼都不是了
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2
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- __小曦曦Replying toDerick 哈哈哈哈:
  [生气]
  2021-05-09
  Reply
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- Derick 哈哈哈哈:
  哈哈哈哈，涨起来
  2021-05-09
  Reply
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- __小曦曦:
  [流泪]快涨
  2021-05-09
  Reply
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Daniel_bao
·2021-05-09
加油。。。。
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安妮1022
·2021-05-09
?
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2
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- Youn7276:
  历史一直在重复！
  2021-05-09
  Reply
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如果需要一个
·2021-05-09
扯淡文，蔚來有利用皮包公司偷偷賣設備給伊朗嗎？
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5
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- 萎莱:
  现在看到华为就反胃，孟晚舟自己利用职务关系，把美国惠普的设备倒卖给伊朗，违反美国法律，还整天为她洗白，我咋没看到联想集团被美国制裁啊？华为不是技术牛，是做生意没有节操不遵守国外市场规则，被打压很正常
  2021-05-09
  Reply
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- Aldrin:
  gg
  2021-05-09
  Reply
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幸福老猫
·2021-05-09
風馬牛不相及怎麼能和華爲比！一個靠核心技術，一個靠PPT
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呆牛张
·2021-05-09
蔚來有什麼是需要制裁的麼？不就一汽車界的海底撈麼
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4
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- FattyLau:
  Seema like dead meat This time
  2021-05-09
  Reply
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godzilla
·2021-05-09
我們一起
Reply
1
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- godzilla:
  很好很好b
  2021-05-09
  Reply
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53570b80
·2021-05-09
制裁華爲是利益方的博弈不過手機質量和服務確實比不上蘋果
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2
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- Alicia Ling:
  苹果?应该对自己产品?️信心，更不应该打压
  2021-05-09
  Reply
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53570b80
·2021-05-09
希望蔚來能揚帆凱旋
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4
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- FattyLau:
  Agree
  2021-05-09
  Reply
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淡然笑
·2021-05-09
好極了
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4
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- 隨缘呗:
  [微笑]
  2021-10-27
  Reply
  Report
Wishonest
·2021-05-09
除非能威脅到特斯拉
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2
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- RocketMan:
  Highly chance
  2021-05-09
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- YourCFP:
  最终制裁会放在芯片上
  2021-05-09
  Reply
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- Wishonest:
  可能
  2021-05-09
  Reply
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joyo1662
·2021-05-09
還是看好 EV
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2
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洞幽烛远
·2021-05-09
這是場長期的競爭。
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1
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NCP88
·2021-05-08
馳名雙標。合則用，不合則棄
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Zmhell
·2021-05-08
這是多心虛啊，當然也是實力使然。華爲是罪有應得，但未來完全可以放心：公平競爭下，誰也沒有興趣動你。
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3
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AB_Iphone
·2021-05-08
Gambate
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- AB_Iphone:
  我喜欢
  2021-05-08
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- Miaw:
  [比心]
  2021-05-08
  Reply
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隨缘呗
·2021-05-08
[微笑]
Reply
1
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- 飞鸟跌穴298884:
  中概股～...
  2021-05-09
  Reply
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甜一点
·2021-05-08
?
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昨夜梦见你
·2021-05-08
幹它
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1
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- SKng:
  Hi
  2021-05-08
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Chloe_See
·2021-05-08
加油!
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3
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Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"NIO","symbol_name":"蔚来","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/464724","article_id":"2133795685","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ad9b9789492470167d18ef00d8dd407"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2133795685","pubTimestamp":1620468527,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"gelonghui_highlight","name":"格隆汇"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"中国必须突破封锁","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"gelonghui.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"translate_title":"Will Huawei's crimes be repeated in NIO Inc.?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a43a891855e00dee87c999f2cd1f333","symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9},"content_text":"蔚来出海了。\n和小鹏一样，蔚来也选择了挪威作为第一站。\n为什么选择挪威？\n李斌直言：“挪威是一个对电动汽车非常友好的国家，比如取消了电动汽车的关税，车从中国出口过去，只需要支付一些运输费用，这是一个很现实的考虑；挪威的市场体量也比较合适，不是很大，也不是很小，挪威的汽车市场结构也比较健康，高端车、中端车总体上比较均衡，高端车不少，特斯拉在那里卖得就不错。”\n但是话风一转，又略显沉重。\n“今天，一个中国背景的公司进入到中国以外的市场，压力是非常大的，和5年前、10年前相比，压力大了一个量级，我们一定要做好充分的思想准备。我们不期望在挪威市场一炮走红，总是想着一炮走红的企业，往往会死得很难看。”\n作为中国市值第二高的汽车公司掌门人，李斌对于战略性的问题还是看得很清楚，或者说他不能不看清楚，因为华为的遭遇还历历在目。\n01\n全球化水逆，华为遭罪\n自1840年，西方贸易者用坚船利炮打开中国国门至今，唯一一家称得上高科技含量，又能把产品卖到全世界的中国公司，是华为。\n华为的成功，得益于全球化。但现在，全球化遭遇逆流，西方国家以各种理由试图将全球化的红利收归自己，华为正是这种逆流的受害者。\n美国以各种理由制裁华为，誓要把华为往死里搞的节奏，英国5G建设排除华为，并将现有的核心通信设备中华为部分做替换。\n英美两国是西方世界的老大，他们这样做，小弟们愿意也好，不愿意也罢，都只能低头跟随，加拿大、澳大利亚、新西兰、德国、意大利、印度......相继表明在5G建设中排除华为。\n一轮轮的制裁下来，华为也是伤痕累累。华为被迫剥离荣耀手机品牌，手机的全球占比已经掉出前五，回看两年前，我们还在为华为销量干苹果，打三星，即将坐上全球老大而呐喊助威，短短两年，已是物是人非。\n\n比手机更严重的，是华为的核心竞争力--5G通信设备，不断被西方主流国家排除在外。科技圈经常说，技术无国界，不在全球的框架下做研发、做应用，产品就必定会有局限性。现在华为的遭遇，不仅是华为的损失，也是中国高科技出海的重大损失。\n西方的强力封锁也使得华为逐渐看清楚一些事，所以任正非在选择智能汽车作为出路时，并没有涉及终端产品，而是专注ICT，为终端车厂赋能。\n换句话说，对于整个智能汽车市场，多一个华为汽车不多，少一个不少，推出汽车品牌，未必能够冲出重围，搞不好还要被美国搞，而专注于ICT，如果能在芯片、智能操作系统、激光雷达等核心零部件上形成优势，反而可以吃到整条产品链上最肥的那块肉。微软、安卓、英特尔、高通都没有终端品牌，但终端产品的利润率，还不到他们零头。\n当然，华为有深厚的技术积累，可以这么做，但是对于蔚来、小鹏而言，他们只能走终端这条路。\n现在这些公司开始出海，我们期待之余，也不免担忧，华为的遭遇究竟会不会在蔚来小鹏身上重演？\n看似云淡风轻的挪威市场，将来又会不会牵起新的血雨腥风？\n02\n西方的打压，只需要一个理由\n作为标榜民主自由的西方，打压华为，也得出师有名。\n他们最喜欢的理由，就是国家安全。\n因为通信设备承载着大量的数据流动，无可避免会成为数据“集中营”，尤其是现在的电子化、网络化时代，一些重要的、敏感的甚至机密的信息也会在通信设备上跑。要是通信设备留有后门，很容易窃取到机密情报，这无疑是国家安全的一大隐患。\n但是，美国看似有理的背后，只不过是千年不变的真理：只许州官放火，不许百姓点灯。\n正因为通过自己的IT优势去窃取情报的事干多了，干熟了，获得的好处多了，也才更加明白如果有人如法炮制，会是什么后果。2013年爆出的斯诺登事件，就是最好的证明。\n\n其实，国家安全的背后，还是生意，美国最牛的两个产业，一是金融，二是IT，尤其在IT领域，在核心、关键且最赚钱的领域，美国基本上垄断了全球，IT巨头的市值、营收，富可敌国。\n华为的问题也在于此，偏偏干的是通信设备的生意，偏偏又把技术干到全球顶级，还把生意做到全世界，甚至把美国的重要盟友，一个不落，全撸一遍，美国人的焦虑、恐慌、嫉妒、愤懑，最终化为一道道的禁令，大刀落下，华为见血。\n而作为下一个信息终端，智能汽车无疑是最有希望接过智能手机衣钵的电子终端，加上自动驾驶、网联化、共享化等各种花哨的应用，在智能汽车上流动的数据将会非常的庞大，这当中难免会涉及到重要的、敏感的、机密的信息，例如汽车上布满了摄像头，拍摄到的图像，各种人机交互的声音、图像资料，可以瞬间通过网络全到它想去的地方。\n正因看透了美国的招数，中国国内已经有声音质疑，特斯拉的摄像头会不会成为中情局的“眼线”，中国花大力气引入的特斯拉，又会不会成为助长外国间谍的错误决策？如果美国安全部门要求特斯拉交出在中国拍摄到的关键数据，马斯克敢不敢say no？\n但话又说回来，如果这个逻辑成立，那同属智能汽车的蔚来、小鹏，把车卖到外国，外国也有理由报以同样的对待，蔚来又会何去何从？\n03\n蔚来会在数据安全问题上栽跟头吗？\n5月6日蔚来的战略发布会上，李斌被问及同样的问题，他给出的答案是：\n“我们会符合欧洲对数据保护的标准，欧洲对隐私保护、个人数据保护有非常严格的规定，我们要用最高的标准去要求自己。”\n李斌说自己最近重读了《文明的冲突与世界秩序的重建》一书，这是美国政治学家萨缪尔·亨廷顿在上世纪90年代撰写的一本关于国际关系的论著，20多年过去了，这本书依然给了自己不少启发。\n看来李斌已经看透华为的遭遇，也看透了中美两个大国博弈甚至对抗的长期性、艰巨性，所以显得很谨慎。\n不过，李斌对蔚来进入更多的国家仍然有信心。\n“一个国家肯定不够，未来我们会进入更多的国家。正如前面所讲，在全球市场进行扩张，肯定是一个长期的计划。在欧洲市场，挪威是第一站，计划在明年时进入到5个欧洲国家。”\n究竟又是什么给了李斌底气？\n其实，看清汽车这个行业格局，就不难理解。\n汽车行业的参与者很多，美欧日韩中，都有自家品牌，很难出现一家或者少数几家垄断的局面。\n华为被打压，其中一个重要原因，就是通信设备是少数寡头垄断的行业，华为又把原本的西方设备商基本干趴下，美国没了，日本没了，欧洲的爱立信、诺基亚都不是对手，自己不但登上龙头老大的位置，还遥遥领先。\n但在汽车行业，还看不到中国可以干趴欧美列强的可能性。燃油车就不说了，中国的自主品牌花了40年时间，也没捞到多少核心技术，反而一步步沦为西方品牌的代工厂。\n电动车来了，我们想弯道超车，但前有早已入局的特斯拉，后面还是来势汹汹的大众、奔驰、丰田、通用，这些公司的实力，没有一个比蔚来差。\n至于数据安全问题，相必美国会如法炮制，不给你进就完事了，让你进的欧洲，也不是善人，自知自己没有像样的IT企业，得依赖外国，但不代表欧洲对外国IT公司无计可施，微软、google、苹果、英特尔、亚马逊、facebook，一言不合就被欧盟拉清单，罚款的数额，可以大到超乎想象。\n\n如果中国公司触礁，搞不好被罚到倒闭，也不是没有可能，也难怪李斌说要用欧洲最高的标准要求自己。\n既然如此，西方又有什么理由像担忧华为那样担忧中国的电动车？\n04\n结语\n起源于西欧，长达数百年的全球贸易浪潮，在推动文明传播、生产力进步的同时，也编织了一张巨大的、由西方主导规则的贸易网络。这张网络直到今天，仍然源源不断地将全球利润输往西方国家，让西方臣民们过着优哉游哉的美好生活。\n而西方在高科技、高利润行业，在新兴产业的垄断和封锁，正是西方国家不断延续“美好生活”的秘密武器。\n但是，中国正努力突破这种垄断和封锁，并要在这个既有贸易格局中分一杯羹，或者说用自己的力量重塑贸易格局，让自己拥有一席之地。\n这必然会引起既得利益者的围追堵截，但不管如何，中国都必须也必然会突破这种封锁。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":190992970,"gmtCreate":1620565922890,"gmtModify":1704345015872,"author":{"id":"3564013861347254","authorId":"3564013861347254","name":"Derick 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