* European Stoxx up 0.6%, on new record highs
* Miners best performers, up 1.8%
* Bank stock index down 0.3%
* Wall Street futures tick up
*
June 11 - Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com
STOXX: SOME UPSIDE SEEN DESPITE RECORD HIGHS (1241 GMT)
It's fairly understandable for investors to feel some unease with the STOXX 600 setting a new record high above what most pundits just recently believed was a decent 2021 target.
Buying the dip often feels more comfortable than buying what looks like a peak.
At 457 points, the pan-European Index is cruising higher than the 451 points 2021 target of the Reuters poll published on May 26.
Still, there are few analysts advising clients to move out of equities while many more still see some upside.
"Enjoy the ride for now", say Citi strategists who this morning had 5% and 7% further gains penciled for the STOXX 600 and FTSE 100 respectively.
At the core of their call is the fact that profits at Europe Inc are firmly on the rise with EPS rebounding 41% in 2021 and enjoying a 11% rise in 2022.
"This should help markets move further ahead, despite QE tapering concerns and rising valuations", they argue, making the case for cyclicals.
Citi favors consumer discretionary, financials, materials and IT while it's not so keen on defensives.
Here's their sector allocations:
Also:
POLL-European stocks stuck at peak as recovery uplift fades
(Julien Ponthus)
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WHAT'S UP? SAME OLD, SAME OLD (1153 GMT)
Three weeks since the S&P 500 made a daily move over 1%, VIX back to mid-teens, a slow grind to fresh record highs almost every other day -- sounds familiar?
Yes, this is mostly how markets were behaving before the pandemic set in.
With U.S. Treasury yields back in the 1.40s and not a posing rate hike threat in the near-term, stock markets don't show signs of a pullback.
And that's what it's gonna look like for the next six months or so, UniCredit strategists say.
"The underlying environment remains positive for equities, although in the short-term, most positive developments should be reflected in current prices," says Christian Stocker, lead equity strategist at the Italian bank.
"Therefore, we expect no strong positive momentum over the summer months and rather a continuing struggle between profit taking and the fear of missing further potential positive performance."
He thinks if you're entering the market now, you should probably look into value sectors such as Automobiles & Parts and Banks -- both have potential to outperform the market.
See Renault's spike today
In a nutshell, leave your money in equities and take your much deserved holiday!
(Thyagaraju Adinarayan)
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THE MYSTERY OF THE FALLING YIELD (1125 GMT)
Treasury markets reacted to yesterday's 5% U.S. inflation print with a yawn.
An initial jump in 10-year yields subsided quickly as buying kicked in -- yields fell today to a new 3-1/2 month low and are set for the biggest weekly decline in a year.
Some attribute this to markets finally buying the Fed's transitory inflation message, while others say a Treasury snapback was inevitable after the Q1 selloff.
Overseas buyers recycling commodity windfalls or hedging Sino-U.S. tensions are also cited.
All are likely correct. But an ever powerful impetus also comes from U.S. money-markets.
The Fed yesterday took a record $535 billion in bids for its overnight Reverse Repo Facility, from $450 billion three weeks ago and next to nothing in March.
The RRP pays 0%, not exactly whopping but alluring all the same for money market funds awash with cash. With the Fed pumping $120 billion a month, the Treasury running down its cash account and T-bill supply shrinking, yields have been crushed on the short-dated instruments such funds prefer.
Lower Treasury yields could reflect a "growing cash-glut in the U.S. money market forcing investors further out on the yield curve," Danske Bank analysts write.
Analysts at ING agreed that "front-end longs can crowd out up the curve."
This could change if the Fed acts next week and raises the 0.10% rate on its excess reserves facility and the 0% reverse repo rate.
For some that's unlikely. The effective fed funds rate is at the bottom of its target range but analysts at Oxford Economics argue the Fed has acted in the past only when the rate has strayed further off the mid-point.
(Sujata Rao)
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BANK STOCKS: NOT RATE RISE TILL MARCH 2024 (1108 GMT)
Yesterday’s ECB policy meeting outcome wasn’t so good for a possible rising trend in interest rates and for euro zone bank stocks as their earnings are positively correlated with borrowing costs.
Today the bank stock index is the Stoxx 600 worst performer, down 0.4%.
The main question here is for how long eurozone interest rates will remain subdued. Credit Suisse analysts answer that “the futures market imply the first rate increase by the ECB in March 2024.”
This means that loan volume growth will be the critical driver of Net Interest Income (NII) during the forecast period, supporting a “more cautious view of the domestic eurozone NII outlook, particularly across Southern Europe banks,” they say.
Not to mention the “disintermediation trend,” namely the fact that “corporates across most of Europe have meaningfully increased their borrowing from the capital markets at the detriment of bank loans.”
“Italy and Spain, as well as the Netherlands, stand out as places where this trend has been most pronounced,” they add.
Among Southern European banks, they continue to favour Santander for its exposure to emerging markets and Unicredit for its re-rating potential.
(Stefano Rebaudo)
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UK GDP: NOT MUCH ANGST ON REOPENING DELAY (1021 GMT)
It's fair to say that the market price action following the UK GDP data hasn't been that impressive.
"Sterling and UK equity markets have had a muted reaction to the figures", commented Mike Owens, Global Sales Trader at Saxo Markets.
The FTSE 100 is currently up 0.6%, slightly better than the STOXX 600 at 0.4% but sterling is ticking down about 0.15%.
Anyhow, it feels that the possibility of Boris Johnson delaying the reopening date of June 21 because of the exponential spread of the Delta variant isn't spooking investors.
Berenberg's note this morning had quite a measured tone on that scenario for which they see a likely delay of four weeks to the removal of the final restrictions.
"The economic effects would be minor", Berenberg's team wrote, adding that "any damage from a later easing after most restrictions have been lifted anyway could be offset afterwards by a confidence effect if vaccines prove to be the game-changer".
Dean Turner, at UBS GWM has a similar take.
"While this would delay the recovery, assuming that any hold up is relatively short, measured in weeks not months, we expect this would have only a minimal impact on the economy, especially in light of the resilience shown by households and firms during the early month of the year".
Also a fairly optimistic view from David Page at AXA IM who is yet "more cautious of output over H2 in the light of surging delta-variant cases and the ending of furlough".
The big picture however remains that thanks to its speedy economic recovery the UK could be among the first countries to normalize monetary policy.
"We maintain our forecast for the BoE to first hike Bank Rate in August 2023, but acknowledge that further upside growth surprises could bring this sooner".
Some reading :
UK recovery quickens in April as economy posts record annual jump
Total UK cases of Delta variant spike to 42,323
(Julien Ponthus)
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ANY RISKS FROM NEXT WEEK'S FOMC? (0925 GMT)
Now that the ECB policy meeting and the U.S. inflation data are behind us, focus is shifting to next week's Fomc meeting and obviously again, on the 't' word: bond-buying tapering.
Most analysts think that the Federal Reserve will start discussions at Jackson Hole economic symposium in late August, but there are different views.
"A proper tapering discussion, however, cannot be avoided in the press conference (next week), and Powell will probably acknowledge that the FOMC has also started this discussion," Commerzbank, head of rates and credit Christoph Rieger, says after mentioning the Jackson Hole deadline for a tapering signal in the policy statement.
In April, Powell said, "it's not time yet", he recalls. "In contrast to the ECB, the Fed is likely to take a step toward the QE exit next week."
But what about a possible market reaction?
"A tapering discussion at next week's meeting should catch no one by surprise," Rieger says.
But "however, the risks of a setback are increasing. With yields at the lowest level since March while equities are at record highs," he adds.
He also highlights he doesn't expect a repeat of the 2013 taper tantrum, which caused 10-year U.S. Treasury yields to rise by some 140bp between May and September.
Treasuries are headed for their best week in a year as the market deemed an inflation spike to be transitory.
The chart below shows the absolute weekly change in U.S. 10-year Treasury yields .
(Stefano Rebaudo)
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MINERS PUSH STOXX TO RECORD (0745 GMT)
European equities hit a new record high led by gains in mining stocks. In contrast, the bank stock index is the worst performer as investors think that interest rates will remain subdued for the foreseeable future.
Benchmark 10-year Treasuries were headed for their best week in a year on Friday as the market deemed a spike in inflation to be transitory, squeezing bears out of a host of short positions.
According to Deutsche Bank analysts, the very fact that Treasuries rallied very strongly again after yesterday's big CPI beat indicated that something is going on behind the scenes in terms of positioning or with regards to excess liquidity.
The Stoxx 600 index is up 0.2%, with basic materials stock index up 1.4%, after yesterday's U.S. data showed much of the price surge came from commodities and airfares, while the bank stock index is down 0.6%.
Travel and leisure stock index rises 0.8% ahead of summer reopenings.
Shares in Scor are up 5.5% after its top shareholder agreed to an orderly exit from the company. The battling insurance group reached a settlement over a frustrated takeover attempt and ensuing legal disputes.
Morphosys down 3.9% after JP Morgan cut to "neutral." Shares in Deutsche Bank are down 3.8%; the ECB is still waiting for the bank to identify a successor and has ratcheted up pressure on Germany's biggest bank and its chairman in recent months.
(Stefano Rebaudo)
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FROM RUSSIA, WITH A RATE HIKE (0658 GMT)
All eyes today on Russia, where the central bank is expected to raise its 5% interest rate by as much as 50 basis points -- its third rate rise in a row.
The rouble faces risks from geo-politics and more importantly, inflation is running above-target.
Russia, like many emerging markets, is seeking to get ahead of the Federal Reserve, which has stressed it will look past any temporary rise in inflation and keep stimulus in place. That message helped markets take in their stride Thursday's blowout U.S. CPI print of 5% .
Despite that number, U.S. Treasury yields are at three-month lows and down 12 basis points this week -- set for their biggest weekly drop in a year. Stock markets too are keeping their faith in the Fed for now, with MSCI's world stock index up. European and U.S. equity futures are higher too.
UK markets have reason to cheer as well -- Britain's economic output in April was a record 27.6% larger than 12 months before, data showed .
Meanwhile, leaders of the Group of Seven wealthiest economies meet in the English seaside resort of Carbis Bay. In Joe Biden's first G7 meeting, the U.S. President faces lingering doubts about America's reliability as a partner.
Leaders from the G7, NATO and the European Union are worried about the pendulum of U.S. politics swinging yet again, and are looking for concrete action, not words after the shock of the Trump years.
Quite active on the corporate front too -- Didi Chuxing, China's biggest ride-hailing firm made public the filing for its long-anticipated U.S. stock market listing which is expected to be this year's biggest initial public offering.
Key developments that should provide more direction to markets on Friday:
- UK April industrial output up 27.5%
- US Uni of Michigan inflation expectations
- G7 summit in Cornwall
- German Bundesbank sees 2021 inflation at 2.6% vs 1.6% before
(Dhara Ranasinghe)
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EVERYTHING AS EXPECTED? (0533 GMT)
European stock futures are slightly higher after yesterday's ECB policy meeting ended in line with analysts' expectations, and U.S. data supports the Fed's view that the current inflation will be transitory.
The European central bank reaffirmed its pledge to buy bonds at a "significantly higher" pace while raising its growth and inflation projections.
U.S. CPI data were above consensus, but much of the price surge came from commodities and airfares, seen as temporary.
The only thing that can now move the needle would be mentioning the 'tapering' word at next week's Fomc, which is seen as unlikely.
(Stefano Rebaudo)
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