美联储预期提早加息次日，长期美债收益率大跌，为什么？

华尔街见闻2021-06-18

6月17日周四，在美联储FOMC意外转鹰、“点阵图”暗示将提前至2023年加息的一天后，美国长期国债收益率大跌，回吐昨日全部涨幅，收益率曲线更加趋平。 10年期基准美国国债收益率重回1.50%关口下方，日内最深下行9.7个基点，日低下逼1.47%，昨日曾从不足1.50%飙升至1.569%。 30年期美债收益率日内最深下行16个基点，创2月以来最大盘中跌幅，日低至2.049%，刷新2月中旬来的四个...

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Comment（7）

yeechiannn
·2021-06-18
好
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ysc74
·2021-06-18
應該是他印錢瓜，要還的。
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无欲2057
·2021-06-18
不奇怪
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美股爆爆看
·2021-06-18
[流淚]
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Ericpang122
·2021-06-18
情況有點亂但是長期美股會下跌
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一剑奈何
·2021-06-18
?
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爱丽丝郑
·2021-06-18
Like & comment, thank you
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8月期金收跌近4.7%，至少创去年11月以来主力合约最大单日跌幅，收报不足1775美元，也创4月30日以来收盘最低。\n美联储加息时间表提前抑制长期通胀预期，促使美债收益率曲线趋平\n为何长期美债收益率出现戏剧性逆转，同时收益率曲线在加速坍塌？据彭博社数据，过去两天的综合美债收益率曲线趋平幅度，为去年3月流动性危机以来的最高水平。\n有分析认为，美联储最新点阵图预期2023年底之前将加息两次，这一转变推高了较短期限的市场利率，并制约了长期通胀预期，导致美债收益率曲线趋平。货币市场交易员们甚至把对美联储加息25个基点的定价预期提前到了明年第四季度。\nMUFG Securities Americas 美国宏观策略主管George Goncalves认为，美联储“作为通胀斗士的可信度”，给此前担心购买长久期国债作为投资的人们大开绿灯，市场参与者开始购入长期美债，用来对冲投资组合中其他风险更高的头寸。\n道明证券的全球利率策略主管Priya Misra也认为，继美联储在6月政策会议上发出鹰派信号之后，再通胀交易（reflation trade）遭受了“重大挫折”，建议退出押注五年/30年期美债收益率曲线陡峭化的交易。高盛集团首席利率策略师Praveen Korapaty也持类似观点。\n财经媒体CNBC则认为，铜等基础金属价格继续周度下跌，债券交易员正在关注大宗商品的大幅抛售。债券收益率通常与大宗商品同步变动，因为它们都被视为全球经济增长的晴雨表。今日最新数据显示，上周美国首申失业金人数增至41.2万，重回40万关口上方，高于市场预期的36万人，避险需求也导致部分投资者回流美债市场，进而压低债券收益率。\n金融博客Zerohedge援引全球经济趋势网站Mish Talk的分析称，美债收益率曲线目前不能称为“绝对平坦”，但日渐趋平的趋势很重要，30年期长期美债收益率大跌本身也是重要信号，这代表通胀恐慌已经基本处于“后视镜”中，即不是市场主要担心并影响交易举动的要点了。\n美债收益率曲线高调趋平或是QE量宽买债即将终结的号角，投资者应买债\n华尔街见闻也分析指出，昨日被称为“五年来最重要”的FOMC会议标志着货币政策将逐渐走入下半场，以后市场分歧的焦点或在于货币政策正常化的“缓”与“急”，而不是会否正常化，“流动性盛宴”的惯性思维需要作出转变：\n\n 从结果来看，我们在周二前瞻中提到四大“惊喜”居然系数落地：放风Taper，通胀预期上调，加息时点前移，IOER /ON RRP利率上调，这意味着美联储已表现出通过预期引导工具，释放阶段性退出信号的姿态。\n\n不少人认为，美债收益率曲线高调趋平发出的正是QE量宽买债即将终结的警示音。\n分析师Michael Lebowtiz对比了美债收益率在美联储历次QE前、中、后不同时期的表现。他发现，10年期美债收益率在每个QE期间上升、并在QE结束时下降，如下图画圈处所示，当美联储通过量化紧缩 （QT）来逆转QE买债时，美债收益率往往急剧下降。\n\n同样，两年/10年期美债收益率曲线的走势类似。QE量宽期间，短期收益率相对稳定且长期收益率上升，即收益率曲线陡峭化，但在QE结束后，收益率曲线会迅速变平。\n\n他给出的建议是：\n\n “从QE开始到QE期间的峰值收益率水平处，10年期美债收益率往往会上涨约1%。美债收益率会在QE结束前达到峰值，这时美联储也会越来越接近缩减购债（taper）或停止QE购买。目前，美债收益率正接近其周期高点，如果美联储接近缩减购债，美债收益率可能会见顶。鉴于此前的QE末期缩减购债经验，如果美联储实际上即将taper，10年期美债收益率会在未来6个月到一年内下降1%甚至更多。股市投资者可能不知道的是，QE期间债券表现不佳，QE结束后会表现强劲。\n 债券投资者应该在美联储买入时卖出、在美联储卖出时买入。随着我们对美联储降低量化宽松步伐的信心增强，我们的债券配置总量和债券久期都应增加。”\n\n自昨日FOMC意外转鹰后，巴克莱银行的经济学家认为，美联储将在9月会议上正式宣布缩减资产购买的taper计划，实际削减买债从11月开始执行，快于他们此前预期的今年11月宣布和明年1月开始执行。而taper也是实际加息的前兆。\n中信证券明明曾称，趋平的收益率曲线可能会对消费水平有所影响，因此，收益率曲线趋平通常表明市场认为经济增长不可持续，将在未来下降：\n\n 短期收益率水平的上升可能会通过间接影响某些抵押贷款利率，如果短期利率高于长期利率，一些消费抵押贷款利率也会随之升高，进而影响消费者的消费需求；此外，短期国债利率的升高可能会提升部分融资成本，消费者的可支配收入相对减少，对消费需求可能产生负面影响。趋平的收益率曲线对固定收益投资者和房地产投资者也有负面影响。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":168744605,"gmtCreate":1623984741707,"gmtModify":1703825592255,"author":{"id":"3559689348047556","authorId":"3559689348047556","name":"yeechiannn","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3559689348047556","idStr":"3559689348047556"},"htmlText":"好","listText":"好","text":"好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/168744605","repostId":2144164740,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":168423919,"gmtCreate":1623981387531,"gmtModify":1703825416854,"author":{"id":"3578992927451288","authorId":"3578992927451288","name":"ysc74","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a45f7677d6eddb134c486d8794347f9a","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3578992927451288","idStr":"3578992927451288"},"htmlText":"應該是他印錢瓜，要還的。","listText":"應該是他印錢瓜，要還的。","text":"應該是他印錢瓜，要還的。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/168423919","repostId":2144164740,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":168485836,"gmtCreate":1623980985225,"gmtModify":1703825394965,"author":{"id":"3581983097481247","authorId":"3581983097481247","name":"无欲2057","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54e1909dfac2a022786e0d074699d2f2","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3581983097481247","idStr":"3581983097481247"},"htmlText":"不奇怪","listText":"不奇怪","text":"不奇怪","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/168485836","repostId":2144164740,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":168435509,"gmtCreate":1623980516101,"gmtModify":1703825370076,"author":{"id":"3560042760758931","authorId":"3560042760758931","name":"美股爆爆看","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f71c5691fc3970d218e72d88c3d09a0c","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3560042760758931","idStr":"3560042760758931"},"htmlText":"[流淚]&nbsp;","listText":"[流淚]&nbsp;","text":"[流淚]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/168435509","repostId":2144164740,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":168574608,"gmtCreate":1623979847404,"gmtModify":1703825326073,"author":{"id":"3576043073516562","authorId":"3576043073516562","name":"Ericpang122","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f098e8bc7471d831621d3a8a417ec8b3","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3576043073516562","idStr":"3576043073516562"},"htmlText":"情況有點亂 但是長期美股會下跌","listText":"情況有點亂 但是長期美股會下跌","text":"情況有點亂 但是長期美股會下跌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/168574608","repostId":2144164740,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":168543249,"gmtCreate":1623979455881,"gmtModify":1703825306119,"author":{"id":"3586266967551836","authorId":"3586266967551836","name":"一剑奈何","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b073a07f77dbe6b3bec6b12311fde6bd","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3586266967551836","idStr":"3586266967551836"},"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/168543249","repostId":2144164740,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":168515476,"gmtCreate":1623978586195,"gmtModify":1703825240006,"author":{"id":"3582722070972100","authorId":"3582722070972100","name":"爱丽丝郑","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b23509784d45d9eceffcc0d970b181d","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3582722070972100","idStr":"3582722070972100"},"htmlText":"Like &amp; comment, thank you&nbsp;","listText":"Like &amp; comment, thank you&nbsp;","text":"Like & comment, thank you","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/168515476","repostId":2144164740,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":36,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}