决议后市场竟然这么走!美联储想到了吗?

智通财经网2021-06-20

美联储决议后的市场表现，无论从什么角度来看都非比寻常：美元指数自去年3月新冠疫情席卷全球以来创下单日最大涨幅，长端美债收益率跌至2月以来最低，部分商品价格跌至去年3月以来新低，但纳斯达克指数却创下历史新高。市场为何出现如此出乎意料的表现?德意志银行首席外汇策略师George Saravelos在报告中表示，从收益率曲线平坦化可以看出，美联储犯了一个重大的政策错误。而这归结为市场对中性利率r*的...

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Comment（26）

blueline
·2021-06-21
所以減倉麼
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VersaillesLi
·2021-06-21
[呆住] [呆住] [呆住]
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1
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- 赞我的今年账户翻十倍:
  hi
  2021-06-21
  Reply
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karlbox512
·2021-06-21
所以拜登準備準備向富人加稅，他可能已經意識到美聯儲這樣來回整水已經陷入到自己走不出來的境地了。
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hhyw
·2021-06-21
股市在高點太久了
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4
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- jiann85:
  [微笑]
  2021-06-21
  Reply
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云里梦里飞
·2021-06-21
天下苦美久矣
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2
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- hhyw:
  好
  2021-06-21
  Reply
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龙胆虎威
·2021-06-21
??
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2
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chrischua
·2021-06-21
[開心]
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Wishonest
·2021-06-21
危機馬上就要來了，等不到2024
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3
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- hhyw:
  好事
  2021-06-21
  Reply
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- YourCFP:
  [捂脸]
  2021-06-21
  Reply
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Jack91
·2021-06-21
?
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小虎发财
·2021-06-21
?加油
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1
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- 持仓坚赞:
  好
  2021-06-21
  Reply
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Yim_有理想
·2021-06-20
[開心] [微笑]
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1
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Eda95
·2021-06-20
[開心]
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- Xlaire:
  [微笑]
  2021-06-23
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AndrewLam
·2021-06-20
加油
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AndrewLam
·2021-06-20
??
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2
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Miaw
·2021-06-20
現在應該在於復甦及過熱期
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3
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- Eda95:
  [无语]
  2021-06-20
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星月草莓蛋糕
·2021-06-20
你哈
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- Eda95:
  [呆住]
  2021-06-20
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坐等拿钱
·2021-06-20
???
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2
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Jack91
·2021-06-20
?
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1
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Kiong715
·2021-06-20
[微笑]
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小熊熊小
·2021-06-20
幫我點贊謝謝
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- Kiong715:
  ??
  2021-06-20
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Has the Fed thought of it?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb9c99063e253efc310abcbfebbd77d7","symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"QID":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"DDM":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9},"content_text":"美联储决议后的市场表现，无论从什么角度来看都非比寻常：美元指数自去年3月新冠疫情席卷全球以来创下单日最大涨幅，长端美债收益率跌至2月以来最低，部分商品价格跌至去年3月以来新低，但纳斯达克指数却创下历史新高。\n市场为何出现如此出乎意料的表现?德意志银行首席外汇策略师George Saravelos在报告中表示，从收益率曲线平坦化可以看出，美联储犯了一个重大的政策错误。而这归结为市场对中性利率r*的极度悲观看法，“换句话说，这与我们六年前预测的，美联储加息周期将以灾难结束时的论点相同。”为何市场会有如此意外走势?德银分析师一一给出分析：\n美元大涨：美元大涨的表现完全符合传统观点，即对美元指数影响最大的是前端实际利率。美联储2023年收紧货币政策的预期已经被重新定价，支撑近期美元强势的表现。即便10年期美债收益率没有创下新高，美元指数强势反弹也并不让人惊讶。商品暴跌：不应低估美联储在推升商品价格方面起到的作用，或许我们从目前美元与基金属价格之前非常高的相关性中可以看出。德银此前的报告也表明，美联储资产负债表、商品价格和通胀预期之间存在强关联性，2013年缩表也标志着当时的通胀预期顶。而多项基于调查的指标，比如密歇根大学通胀预期指数也表明商品价格与通胀预期的高关联性。上述的论据都表明，美联储通过美元和商品影响通胀预期的能力远超一般人想象。\n最后，也是最重要的，债券和中性利率的部分。从下图可以看出，在过去48小时内，债券市场出现明显的扭曲平坦化，在美联储甚至还没开始加息的时候出现这种情况非比寻常。\n重演2015年至2019年美联储加息周期，尽管市场对2023年和2024年加息定价已经上升，但这两个时间点之后的收益率开始下降，主要因市场认为美联储最多能做到的也只有在不到两年时间内加息。这也与通胀预期的明显下降相吻合。事实上，美联储甚至在盈亏平衡通胀率达到2014年正常区间水平前就出现了鹰派的转变。而现在市场对中性利率r*采取了极其悲观的看法。换句话说，如果美联储决定提前行动，那么市场的声音表示，在通胀和增长达到速度极限前，美联储无法走得很远，这也导致市场对美联储第一次加息后的利率预期下降。\n债券市场之外的其他市场也反映出对中性利率r*的悲观，全球投资者对收益率的巨大需求推动美元走强，并产生比预期来得更快的去通胀(通胀放缓，disinflation)影响。换句话说，全球中性利率的低迷将美国中性利率推得更低了。\n而低中性利率与股市走强是相一致的，特别是严重依赖中期贴现利率的成长股。过去两天美股走势反映的是从罗素2000到纳斯达克指数的巨大相对轮动，但德银分析师警告，这其实是2010年到2019年长期停滞十年定价的2.0版本。虽然一两天的价格表现并不能构成趋势，但市场发出的奇怪信号不应被忽略。德银分析师在过去几周一直强调，从V型复苏到后新冠时代的稳定状态，还有许多问题有待解决，包括新冠疫情对私营部门储蓄率，以及新均衡实际利率水平留下的结构性损伤。可以想象，没有财政刺激措施之后经济的悲惨情形——没有每年数万亿美元的新财政刺激措施，美国是否能维持正的GDP增长率?而如果美联储被迫在通胀之火熄灭前就降息，通胀率会怎样?这些都是市场在未来几个月内不得不考虑的问题。\n美联储当前面临的最大问题在于是否可能重蹈1937年覆辙，当时美联储认为美国经济已经好转，并开始启动加息，但结果是美国经济重新陷入困境，最终是二战时期的大规模财政再通胀挽救了一切。\n但问题在于，目前美国的债务和赤字都已经升至二战时的水平，没有战争，美国政府还能如何证明每年几万亿美元的财政刺激措施合理?当2024年物价继续上涨，经济再度陷入衰退，时任的美联储主席要如何抗击通胀?","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":164457015,"gmtCreate":1624234544137,"gmtModify":1703830994390,"author":{"id":"3577190350066570","authorId":"3577190350066570","name":"blueline","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc6cf22d30c6e8d194acfa93802ff23","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3577190350066570","idStr":"3577190350066570"},"htmlText":"所以 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