上半年的美股“马照跑舞照跳”，但人们都在准备跑

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上半年的美股“马照跑舞照跳”，但人们都在准备跑

华尔街见闻2021-06-29

在美股散户持续买入、标普500再创新高之际，华尔街开始保持谨慎。投行分析师警告称，考虑拜登税改及美联储缩减刺激政策的潜在威胁，目前美股的涨势恐不能持续。美股的上涨势头似乎不可阻挡。在持续买盘的驱动下，今年前6个月标普500指数上涨近14%，市值增加约6万亿美元，有望创1998年以来第二好的上半年表现。自去年10月底以来，标普500指数从未出现单日回调5%的情况。而在类似估值水平的1999年，...

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EeMei
·2021-06-30
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James1188
·2021-06-29
要謹慎，慢慢佈局。多多關注市場新聞
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YongGuang
·2021-06-29
ok
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Research数据显示，当标准普尔500指数上周下跌超过1%时，散户投资者向股市投入了创纪录的20亿美元。\n这种持续性的买入似乎不会因疫情解封而结束。Betterment调查显示，在1500名受调查的美股散户中，有58%的人计划在疫情解封后更多的交易，仅有12%的表示交易数量将随着疫情解封而降低。\n市场的整体估值也在趋向正常。由于利润的持续扩张，市场整体市盈率已经从年初的23x（接近互联网泡沫以来最高）下跌至21x，但仍高过5年平均水平的18x。\n但在股市持续上涨之际，板块之间分化正在扩大。市场中表现最佳板块与表现最差板块之间今年3月出现了2002年以来的最严重分化。\n中大型股和小型股也走出了相当独立的行情，而上一次出现这种情况还要追溯到2000年的互联网泡沫时期。\n对于美股未来前景，华尔街分析师们出言谨慎。分析师们普遍预计，美股公司疫情后业绩的强劲反弹将在本季见顶，考虑拜登税改及美联储缩减刺激政策的潜在威胁，目前华尔街对于标普500年末的平均目标点位预测仅有4213，较最新市场收盘低1.7%。\n空头们也在重新聚集。IHS Markit数据显示，目前市场上对SPDR S&P 500 ETF的卖空比例已从年初的不到2%攀升至5%。期权市场对未来几个月损失的保护需求也在上升。\n市场分析认为，目前对于美股最大的威胁来自美联储。如果美联储提前加息，现金和债券将会更有吸引力，而投资者别无选择只能抛售股票。\n市场对于美联储的动向也异常敏感。此前在美联储释放“鹰派”信息后，美股一度出现剧烈波动。美联储两年后加息、而非此前预计的三年后加息的言论加大了股市的压力，标普500指数在三天内累计跌幅略高于2%，之后才恢复升势。\nWashington Crossing 基金经理Kevin 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