今天阿里腾讯大和解，明天太阳照常升起

财经琦观2021-07-15

15世纪，西方世界逐步迎来了波涛汹涌的大航海时代。葡萄牙先发致胜，西班牙后发制人。两个来自于伊比利亚半岛的小家伙，凭借着人类史上从未听说过的“制海权”迅猛崛起，一脚踹开了全球时代。国力的崛起背后，是尚未反应过来的权力结构。在军事武力之外，人们仍高度尊崇着宗教的旨意。在神的荣光下，他们普遍认同，基督教国家有权力占领异教徒的国土，同时，教皇有权力决定尚未被基督教统治者所占领的土地的主权归属。...

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Comment（18）

铑金
·2021-07-16
好
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2
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浴缸潜水员
·2021-07-16
說惺惺相惜有點太假，說並肩戰鬥更浮誇，不如一起在屋檐下暫時避避雨吧。
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4
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Sunnylr
·2021-07-16
相互不封殺才是成長的開始,中國科技公司才能更大更強
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Johnm
·2021-07-16
形象比喻，有見解
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2
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wwww_wu
·2021-07-16
小程序不好用。對微信支付確實是利好。用啥支付都無所謂，給補貼纔是王道
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钱江之星
·2021-07-16
有見地，有條有理，有深度，很棒
Reply
1
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yingliwayne
·2021-07-16
同是天涯淪落人，相逢何必曾相識
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华尔街老牛
·2021-07-15
俞敏洪說了一句大實話:當今中國互聯網巨頭都是賺的中國人低級趣味的消費的錢。騰訊不知道臉紅了沒？
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5
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- Spoon:
  同意。现在的线上教育就是这些所谓新东方的名师带的低级趣味歪门邪道的风。
  2021-07-16
  Reply
  Report
- no musk:
  先顾好自己吧自己也不见得怎么样怎么样
  2021-07-16
  Reply
  Report
罗素London
·2021-07-15
強強聯合
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1
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野生投资家
·2021-07-15
Mark
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BTAIGA
·2021-07-15
監管面前還是自保爲上
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1
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嗷嗷坏
·2021-07-15
我們的征途是星辰大海。正所謂攘外必先安內
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lamnobody
·2021-07-15
沒用過支付寶的飄過
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1
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Olivia15
·2021-07-15
PDD和dy，壓力大了吧
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1
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KaiYue
·2021-07-15
天下大勢合久必分，分久必合
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1
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新加坡股神们的爸爸
·2021-07-15
大航海不就是殖民時代麼？出門全靠搶，一刀999級
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3
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VinHun
·2021-07-15
多少買點
Reply
1
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tanshenyong
·2021-07-15
阿里騰訊
Reply
1
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B赋能：真正的，流着牛奶与蜜的应许之地。\n与上述三条线有所不同，该业务线中蕴藏着的是时代船票。\n长远来看，上述三条线的最终胜负手，也将由本业务来决定。\n在底层驱动力上，AI、大数据、对5G的落地应用以及云计算算力支撑等高新技术，是企业的核心能力。\n目前，最为成熟的具体赛场即to B的云计算领域，阿里目前显然是领先了一个身位。\n无论是云计算本身的市占率，还是以钉钉为抓手的“云钉一体”战略，都确保了阿里云国内第一的江湖地位。\n眼下，是华为云紧随其后，腾讯云第三这样的江湖格局。\n\n但作为蓝海市场，大家还都是在不断打磨自己的差异优势，宽阔的市场前景尚不至于让各家立马开始短兵相接。\n比如微软凭借着其软件优势，给出了Office+Teams+Azure的套餐；\n亚马逊则在混合云方面先行一步，拿出了AWS Outposts；\n谷歌则在自身的开源容器编排系统的基础上，拿出了兼容性极强的Google Anthos等云计算形态。\n国内方面，百度试图与自身的AI优势相结合，提出了“云智一体”，京东方面则基于自身丰富的实体经验，立志要做“最懂产业的云”......\n此外，车联网赋能市场也已经露出了苗头，AT资本先行，腾讯重仓了蔚来，阿里重仓小鹏。\n\n进一步放眼未来，供应链改造，C2M，SaaS服务，企业软件等新业务，阿里方面似乎是领先着半个身位。\n但回到虚拟领域，在Metaverse（元宇宙）的宏大概念下，腾讯无论是战略盟友，还是自身的业务护城河，都有着不小的优势。\n相关业务：云计算、企业服务、低代码、无人驾驶、智慧城市、智能教育、智慧医疗等。\n三个结论 \n在四大战场的背景下，再来看“AT双方互相开放生态系统”一事，我们便不难得出一开始那三个结论。\n从相关信源以及大多数媒体观察来看，“阿里巴巴的初步举措可能包括将腾讯控股的微信支付引入淘宝和天猫”。\n而腾讯方面可以投桃报李的，无外乎就是“允许阿里巴巴的电商信息在微信分享，或允许微信用户通过小程序使用阿里巴巴的一些服务”。\n\n对应到四大战场上，不难看出所谓的“开放”，仅局限在两个尘埃落定的“零售”与“金融”战场上。\n而更加重要的“大文娱”和“To B”领域，没有必要也没有可能，去搞什么互相“开放合作”。\n回到六百年前的那个场景，“葡西瓜分地球”与“AT握手言和”这两件事，乍一看相似之下，其实处处都截然相反。\n教皇子午线划定之后，麦哲伦、达伽马才相继出生，大航海时代才正式开始轰轰烈烈的进行。\n相比之下，AT的这一停火协议，已经来到了移动互联网时代的尾声。\n真正与教皇子午线有相似意义的，实则是2013年11月，在丰饶的“移动互联网”来临初期，微信和淘宝互相屏蔽，双方生态走向封闭。\n此外，与教皇日渐衰落的权势相比，此次迫使AT握手言和的场外力量，则......\n\nAnyway，商业世界自有其复杂性，棋盘上的玩家也绝不止有AT两家。在真正的增量方向，蓝海市场面前，所谓的边界和礼让，才是一种可笑的傲慢。\n与此同时，在尘埃落定的红海战场里，随着彼此割肉，日益残酷的价格战喧嚣尘上之后，企业之间的生产效率和盈利能力都已经逼近极值。\n在这样的背景下，倒不如双方坦诚交流，划出一个大家都能接受的微利点，将精力和资源得以释放，这样的故事，在彩电、插排、农产品、电力服务、通信业务等各个“标准化”领域（产品难以做出差异性）中，都反复发生着。\nAT在红海领域的握手，也实在谈不上什么新鲜事。\n回头再来梳理那三句话。\n第一句，姿态方向大于具体动作，形式意义大于商业意义。\n随着反垄断大潮的日益高涨，这样的开放姿态，显然可以帮助企业与“凭借垄断地位，限制公平竞争”这一污点划出距离，即姿态意义重大。\n但与此同时，相关开放合作恐怕很难会涉及到二者真正核心的商业区域，而只是在存量市场中，进行资源的调配优化，因此并不能以此来判断“AT”两家的竞争态势就此趋缓。\n\n第二句，象征意味极强。往后在回顾互联网历史时，这一事件将作为重要的阶段节点被人记录解读；\n移动互联网时代将要结束了。\n但，它是在何时结束的？\nAT的此次握手，以其实际行动说明了过往市场已经不再是二者竞争的核心地带，战场进入了收尾打扫期。\n作为移动互联网时代结束的节点，恐怕再适合不过。\n第三句，实则就是对上述判断的补充解释。\n“在存量市场、红海市场的背景下，双方为了进一步精耕细作的必然产物”。\n同样的握手，不同的含义 \n最后，让我们以微软的转型故事作为本篇的结局。\n2013年，时任CEO史蒂夫宣布将在未来12个月内离开微软。\n消息传出后，微软股价大涨8%，市值直接蹿升200亿美元，侮辱性极强。\n这一切，都是因为资本市场对微软迟迟难以转型成功的一口怨气。\n翌年，新任CEO纳德拉上台，头一个星期就发布了一款新产品，Office for iPad。\n让人跌破眼镜的事接二连三的出现，Office开始支持安卓系统，开始支持iOS系统，iPhone新品发布时，微软开始去给iPhone站台。\n甚至在某次演讲期间，纳德拉居然当众从口袋里掏出一个iPhone。\n在他之前，曾经有一个知名的故事在到处流传：史蒂夫看到一个员工拿着iPhone，非常恼火地抡起一把椅子就砸过去了。\n但结果，就是微软凭借着在战略上“放弃了Windows的唯一核心地位”，转而以Office为抓手，成功实现了“云端至上”的云计算转型。\n到今天为止，微软收入中的70%来自于云计算，并且股票也再次得到了股民的巨大认可。\n大家可以对比来看一下这件事。\n微软的利器：Windows老大，office老二，二者相互绑定，一切产品逻辑都基于Windows阴影之中。\n阿里的利器：电商老大，支付老二，二者相互绑定，一切逻辑都基于电商的阴影之中。\nOffice与苹果的联手，带来的结果就是Office更开放，更活跃，被进一步赋能了，而Windows的利益得到了损伤。\n反观阿里，当电商与微信支付联手后，带来的结果就是电商更开放，更活跃，被进一步赋能了，而支付宝的利益得到了损伤。\n值得一提的是，在马云那个“艰难的，不完美但正确的决定”之后，支付宝就已经和阿里在股权结构上分道扬镳了。\n\n在“断腕”力度上，阿里确实没有微软那么壮烈。\n也可以说只是通过放弃一个“外部”产品的优势，进而为主业（电商）换取一个更大的可能。\n但定性来看，这同样显示了阿里转型的决心。\n事实上，在此次生态开放的新闻之前，早在今年3月份，阿里就曾经以淘宝特价版向微信提交小程序申请，只不过后来被拒绝了。\n这些都显露出阿里寻变的渴求。\n反观另一边，腾讯反而没什么要从阿里这边获取的。\n无论是四大战场的步调，还是“元宇宙”的总纲领，腾讯目前都在井然有序的进行着。\n只是在业务之外，相比于前者已经吃到了180亿罚单，腾讯头上那柄名为“反垄断”的达摩克利斯之剑仍未真正落下。\n因此，互相开放带来的“姿态意义”，对腾讯来讲就显得更加紧迫。\n在日常工作方面，互相开放或许不会给腾讯带来太大变化。\n今天微信支付登陆淘宝，明天该买游戏公司还得继续买，该推的企业服务也会正常进行。\n所谓握手，不过是尾部战场的打扫。\n时代滚滚向前，文娱、To 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