SHANGHAI, July 23 (Reuters) - China's yuan slipped against the dollar on Friday but still looked set for a marginal weekly rise, thanks to strong corporate demand and heavy foreign inflows.
Currency traders said the yuan was consolidating in a narrow range, with many participants refraining from making bets on the currency before a slew of potentially market moving events, including a Sino-U.S. meeting later this week, and meetings of the U.S. Federal Reserve and China's Politburo next week.
Prior to the market opening, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the midpoint rate at 6.465 per dollar, 1 pip firmer than the previous fix of 6.4651.
In the spot market, the onshore yuan opened at 6.4685 per dollar and was changing hands at 6.4716 at midday, 15 pips weaker than the previous late session close.
If the yuan finishes the late night session at the midday level, it would have gained 0.11% to the dollar for the week, marking the second straight weekly rise and the best since late May.
Much of the market's attention is on the Politburo meeting, which usually takes place in the final week of the month, with the country's top decision-making body expected to comment on the economic situation in the first half of the year and key tasks for the second half, traders said.
A surprise cut in banks' reserves this month has sparked debate over whether Chinese policymakers are shifting towards an easier stance as the economy's post-COVID rebound has peaked and growth rates start to moderate.
"Top leaders are likely to maintain the current policy stance but turn less hawkish on the margin," said Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie.
"Given the aggregate growth numbers are still steady, the focus in 3Q21 would remain on the micro side including anti-monopoly, environment policy and financial risks."
Traders are also watching a meeting between senior officials from China and the United States later this week, when U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman will meet with State Councillor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi and other officials.
Markets would be anxious to see how the world's two largest economies navigate a deeply troubled relationship.
"China-U.S. tensions will likely be back in the news in H2 when President Biden's administration will have shifted their focus from domestic issues to foreign policy," said Raymond Young, chief economist for Greater China at ANZ.
The Fed, meanwhile, will hold a two-day policy meeting on July 27-28, with investors looking for more clues on its timeframe for tapering stimulus.
By midday, the global dollar index rose to 92.866 from the previous close of 92.831, while the offshore yuan
was trading at 6.4731 per dollar.
The yuan market at 0403 GMT:
ONSHORE SPOT:
Item Current Previous Change
PBOC midpoint 6.465 6.4651 0.00%
Spot yuan 6.4716 6.4701 -0.02%
Divergence from 0.10%
midpoint*
Spot change YTD 0.88%
Spot change since 2005 27.89%
revaluation
Key indexes:
Item Current Previous Change
Thomson 98.57 98.67 -0.1
Reuters/HKEX
CNH index
Dollar index 92.866 92.831 0.0
*Divergence of the dollar/yuan exchange rate. Negative number indicates that spot yuan is trading stronger than the midpoint. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) allows the exchange rate to rise or fall 2% from official midpoint rate it sets each morning.
OFFSHORE CNH MARKET
Instrument Current Difference
from onshore
Offshore spot yuan 6.4731 -0.02%
*
Offshore 6.6466 -2.73%
non-deliverable
forwards
**
*Premium for offshore spot over onshore **Figure reflects difference from PBOC's official midpoint, since non-deliverable forwards are settled against the midpoint.