大退潮：暴跌的贝壳还能上岸吗？

虎嗅2021-08-10

贝壳正站在悬崖边，股价一度跌破发行价。中概股暴跌，波及到贝壳。美国东部时间8月5日收盘，贝壳跌破发行价至19.81美元每股、市值236亿美元（人民币约1525.39亿元），与去年8月刚上市相比，市值缩水了一半以上。贝壳这次被波及并非没有道理。一直以来，质疑这个地产中介“巨无霸”垄断的声音不断。整治很快降临。7月23日，住房城乡建设部、国家发展改革委、公安部等八部门发布了关于持续整治规范房地产...

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Comment（7）

机器人总动员员员
·2021-08-11
政策太多避風港呆呆
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拿着青春陪你赌
·2021-08-11
你怕滴是根本不懂中介，沒技術含量？你買房你自己去找，自己去談價格，自己去過戶，自己去約銀行
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1
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Doubleli
·2021-08-11
等吧
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winwin_Tan
·2021-08-11
可以考慮了。
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Youn7276
·2021-08-11
閱！
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9
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雨后就是彩虹
·2021-08-11
666
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- 持仓坚赞:
  死定了
  2021-08-11
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- 雨后就是彩虹:
  666
  2021-08-11
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- 垂死的小猫:
  [微笑]
  2021-08-11
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LingKS
·2021-08-10
I $AMD(AMD)$
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- CodyTang:
  [呆住]
  2021-08-10
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Morse姐制图\n这还不够，左晖以彭永东（现贝壳找房董事长、CEO）为先锋，在互联网开疆拓土。2018年4月，在一片质疑声中，贝壳找房上线，它被定位为开放的行业平台。其实，彭永东心里也有疑问，毕竟已经有了链家网，再做2014年就搁置的贝壳会不会“劳民伤财”？\n其实这中间本质的区别是，链家主打的传统中介在资本市场不好讲故事，而主打互联网科技平台的贝壳的故事更诱人，贝壳实为纾解链家上市困境的手段。\n贝壳的开发平台体现在，通过ACN网络（注：经纪人协作网络）快速拓展、合作线下门店与中介。\n入驻贝壳平台的中介品牌，可通过共享的资源获得更多的房源及潜在客户，促进商品房成交。成交后，按照目前ACN网络规则，贝壳平台与品牌方按照一定比例扣收门店成交的业绩分佣，剩余部分由门店、成交经纪人、房源录入者、维护人、推荐人、金融顾问等各方角色共同分享。\n一次交易中，参与的人可能达到10人以上，这便是贝壳点睛之处。\n扩张路上，贝壳在二手房领域加大筹码，通过让利获得合作品牌加盟，用提佣率的下滑换取整体市场占有率提升。其整体GTV从2017年0.7万亿元增长至2020年1.9万亿元，提佣率从2.5%下降至1.6%，整体市占率从12.3%提升至26.2%。\n通过这个模式，每个参与者分到交易分成，并催肥了贝壳的体量。\n贝壳招股书显示，贝壳2019年就已成为中国第二大商业平台，仅次于淘宝，而高于拼多多、京东、携程等。\n作为房地产中介龙头，截至2020年报披露时，贝壳线下门店4.7万家，中介49.31万人，线上VR房源911万套。\n这当中，贝壳有两个规模较大的主体，一个是占比80%的嫡系的链家，另一个是占比20%的21世纪不动产等合作加盟品牌。\n在没有技术含量的中介行业，光有规模是不够的。于是，为对抗竞争者，贝壳实施房屋数据、服务和经纪人三大元素标准化，加固护城河，这也是其在业界独树一帜的重要基础。\n尤其是在房屋数据方面，贝壳依托链家自2009年就实施的搜集房屋信息、构筑“楼盘字典”，开启真房源验证。截至2020年第一季度末，“楼盘字典”拥有2.26亿套真实房屋信息。坐拥巨大市场规模下，加持真房源，这是外界同行难以匹敌的竞争壁垒。\n贝壳的ACN经纪人合作网络模式以及打造的房屋信息大数据库“楼盘字典”等概念，戳中了海外投资者的兴趣点。\n2020年8月13日，贝壳成功IPO，募资超过20亿美元，当日涨幅超过80%，市值达到 2900多亿元人民币。彼时，贝壳的市值相当于1.5个碧桂园、2个融创。\n存量房业务（二手房中介和租赁中介业务）和新房业务庞大交易数据的影响下，贝壳2020年总交易额3.5万亿元，收入705亿元，净利润27.8亿元。\n“垄断”质疑\n大而不倒，通常是人们对资本无序扩张且垄断一切的质疑，今天成为“众矢之的”的贝壳同样面临这个问题。\n贝壳成为平台后就跃升到更高的台阶，它的盈利模式从之前的自己动手升级为让其他公司为它打工。入驻的中介被抽取佣金这倒无可厚非。任何平台如果长期采取强管控来压榨，必然会引起反弹。\n强管控到什么程度？入驻之后就不能再加入其它平台，而且在收入分成模式下，入驻的中介需要把人事、 财权等核心机密上交贝壳。\n基于一套考核标准，中介被分为 A、B、C、D四个等级。每个等级拥有不同的权限，C等级和D等级的门店在客源和房源查看权限等方面相对较少，经纪人也会分为不同等级，曝光率也会有所差异。\n贝壳这种强管控，使行业内中介（既包括未入驻贝壳，也包括已经入驻贝壳的）怨声载道，出现了很多抵制行为。\n其中有两点一直被诟病：\n\n链家作为贝壳的自营项目，被认为得到了更多的资源倾斜和平台曝光，这被批评为“既制定规则又下场比赛，既当裁判又当运动员”；\n\n\n贝壳处于行业绝对领先地位，容易导致合作中介被架空品牌、失去团队，交出房源和客户等商业机密，分佣抽成也只能听任贝壳摆布。\n\n其实，开发商也不太开心。\n在新房领域，贝壳A级、B级合作实行“有我没他，有他没我”排他性式分销，也就是房企选了贝壳就不能选择其他渠道商；只有在C级合作中，房企才能同时与其他渠道商合作。\n贝壳的地位有多高？“现在做房地产高管真的很简单，要么拿出百试不爽的杀手锏降价；要么说服老板上贝壳。”一个业内人士苦恼道。\n贝壳掌控了话语权，利润分成的定价权也握在了手里。贝壳新房提佣率从2017年的2.54%提升至2020年的2.74%。高佣金下，贝壳新房业务总交易额从2526亿元增长至1.4万亿元。高的时候，贝壳佣金等同于宇宙房企中国恒大（03333.HK）2020年6%的净利率。\n贝壳站在了房地产利润分成的顶端，甚至把一向强势的开发商压过一头。一些人不干了，恒大率先祭出房车宝抗衡，其他房企也开始自建营销渠道。\n贝壳让人嫉妒的红利，以及碾压式竞争方式，让其他互联网同行颇感不适。\n今年4月10日，58同城CEO姚劲波愤愤地发了这么个微博：“房产交易领域有更明目张胆地二选一包装成自愿，强烈呼吁国家反垄断罚款贝壳找房40亿元。”\n自2019年以来，金华、绍兴、南昌等多地出现了房产中介抵制贝壳的“反壳联盟”。更早“反壳”的还是姚劲波。2018年6月，58同城联合我爱我家、中原地产、21世纪不动产等房屋中介成立了“反贝壳联盟”。\n随着贝壳规模的扩大，贝壳在数据应用方面拥有无限可能，这种无限可能暗藏着踩上反垄断的危险。\n贝壳一旦成为 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