市场压力越来越大，所有人盯着杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会

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市场压力越来越大，所有人盯着杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会

华尔街见闻2021-08-16

随着杰克逊霍尔（Jackson Hole）全球央行年会的临近，投资者静待届时美联储可能给出的关于Taper的信号，市场陷入一种暴风雨来临前的宁静。一年一度的全球央行年会将于当地时间8月26日至28日在美国怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔召开。美联储主席鲍威尔此前确认将在年会上发表讲话，但并未透露讲话的主题。不过按以往经验看，美联储常常会在杰克逊霍尔年会上，扔出“重磅炸弹”。目前市场普遍预期，美联储会在此次年...

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winwin_Tan
·2021-08-16
good
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小花猫24
·2021-08-16
等待
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SQ1128
·2021-08-16
贊
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3
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Kyochan
·2021-08-16
gogo
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1
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WYing
·2021-08-16
[財迷]
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1
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中国ChinaATM
·2021-08-16
壓力啥，我感覺很良好
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yoyo6969
·2021-08-16
[微笑]
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- yoyo6969:
  [微笑]
  2021-08-16
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Hole）全球央行年会的临近，投资者静待届时美联储可能给出的关于Taper的信号，市场陷入一种暴风雨来临前的宁静。\n一年一度的全球央行年会将于当地时间8月26日至28日在美国怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔召开。美联储主席鲍威尔此前确认将在年会上发表讲话，但并未透露讲话的主题。不过按以往经验看，美联储常常会在杰克逊霍尔年会上，扔出“重磅炸弹”。\n目前市场普遍预期，美联储会在此次年...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3637968\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"FT_SY_UB","symbol_name":"超30年美债","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3637968","article_id":"2159212005","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f"],"rights":{"source":"wallstreetcn_api","url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3637968","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2159212005","pubTimestamp":1629073072,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"wallstreetcn_api","name":"华尔街见闻"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"美国银行分析指出，随着杰克逊霍尔年会的到来，利率风险（duration 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\"的研究报告中称，美国国债一般倾向于在年会前上涨，但会后两周内几乎没有变化。\nCabana等写道：“今年如果出现类似的价格变动不会让我们感到意外。预计鲍威尔将发表演讲，阐述新冠疫情以来美国经济的进展，并承认FOMC将继续讨论缩减量化宽松，但不会发出信号。”\n市场严阵以待\n不过美债已经进入了严阵以待，过去一周走势几乎持平。摩根大通的客户数据显示，对美国国债持中性立场的客户数量创2月份以来最高水平。\n8月6日，在强于预期的7月份非农就业数据公布后，10年期美国国债收益率一度从6个月低点反弹，但目前反弹趋势已经停止，收益率降至1.3%左右。\n\n与债市的平静不同，美股势头强劲，欧股甚至连续十年上涨，创1999年以来最长连涨记录。但越是上涨，聚集的风险越高。\n美国银行首席股票策略师Savita Subramanian在一份报告中警告称，随着杰克逊霍尔年会的到来，利率风险（duration risk）处于历史最高水平。利率风险是指因为利率变动而产生的不利影响。\nSubramanian表示，在该行追踪的20个市场指标中，从统计学上来看，大多数都已经太昂贵了。在通胀和经济放缓影响下，预计下半年盈利增长大幅放缓，创纪录的利率风险意味着，如果利率仅仅是小幅上升，股市的下跌都会是令人痛苦的。\n\nSubramanian指出，越来越多的美联储官员正在敦促缩减购债规模，在强劲的就业报告公布后，市场隐含波动率上升了。\n在这种情况下，该行的公允价值压力测试表明，实际无风险利率每发生1个基点的变化，就会转化为标普500指数20-30个基点的波动。\n\n因此，与其他银行在市场走高时匆忙上调标普预期不同，美国银行仍然是唯一的看跌者，它对10年期收益率的预测是年底前达到1.9%，较目前上涨约55个基点，这将导致标普500指数下跌约15%。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":830597843,"gmtCreate":1629079821882,"gmtModify":1676529923066,"author":{"id":"3581581906530118","authorId":"3581581906530118","name":"winwin_Tan","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581581906530118","authorIdStr":"3581581906530118"},"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/830597843","repostId":2159212005,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":830258683,"gmtCreate":1629077327542,"gmtModify":1676529921926,"author":{"id":"3578310588131461","authorId":"3578310588131461","name":"小花猫24","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bd0b1cd795a1758b12afd5172b20ce6","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3578310588131461","authorIdStr":"3578310588131461"},"htmlText":"等待","listText":"等待","text":"等待","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/830258683","repostId":2159212005,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":830259167,"gmtCreate":1629077126059,"gmtModify":1676529921845,"author":{"id":"3585734231041878","authorId":"3585734231041878","name":"SQ1128","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ad0f18080fb0e8941f8451a1f9bb8f7b","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/622fc56f7e67b5729addb4e78a195511","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3585734231041878","authorIdStr":"3585734231041878"},"htmlText":"贊","listText":"贊","text":"贊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/830259167","repostId":2159212005,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":830221539,"gmtCreate":1629076748621,"gmtModify":1676529921651,"author":{"id":"4089193130492580","authorId":"4089193130492580","name":"Kyochan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc81b464ccbd183246bb9a55efdc950","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4089193130492580","authorIdStr":"4089193130492580"},"htmlText":"gogo","listText":"gogo","text":"gogo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/830221539","repostId":2159212005,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":830289883,"gmtCreate":1629075695642,"gmtModify":1676529921073,"author":{"id":"3578032265111945","authorId":"3578032265111945","name":"WYing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80583e319c493104d8bd1e597b2da753","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3578032265111945","authorIdStr":"3578032265111945"},"htmlText":"[財迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[財迷]&nbsp;","text":"[財迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/830289883","repostId":2159212005,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":830233090,"gmtCreate":1629074589110,"gmtModify":1676529920621,"author":{"id":"3584867430360256","authorId":"3584867430360256","name":"中国ChinaATM","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd214125064b4d25501bb48cef2fb529","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a2963eb37c60c5d6d4a8dbcd266952","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3584867430360256","authorIdStr":"3584867430360256"},"htmlText":"壓力啥，我感覺很良好","listText":"壓力啥，我感覺很良好","text":"壓力啥，我感覺很良好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/830233090","repostId":2159212005,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":830202848,"gmtCreate":1629073848084,"gmtModify":1676529920165,"author":{"id":"3578352381862815","authorId":"3578352381862815","name":"yoyo6969","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch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