巴西阿拉比卡咖啡今年或减产近40% ，为2009年以来最低

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巴西阿拉比卡咖啡今年或减产近40% ，为2009年以来最低

新浪财经2021-09-23

财联社（上海，编辑周玲）讯，巴西是全球最大咖啡生产国，但一波又一波的霜冻和干旱导致今年巴西咖啡大幅减产。据机构预测，今年巴西阿拉比卡咖啡产量可能创12年新低。以往9月份，巴西咖啡农户将丰收的咖啡豆装满仓库，运输卡车往往需要排队等上一整天才能取到货，但今年巴西咖啡产量如此小，长长的运输队伍几乎消失了。根据巴西农作物预测机构Conab数据，今年巴西阿拉比卡（ arabica）咖啡产量可能较去年...

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Aidenmiao
·2021-09-23
[驚訝]
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Weimar
·2021-09-23
Zan
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- Aidenmiao:
  [呆住]
  2021-09-23
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中国ChinaATM
·2021-09-23
針對我
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- Weimar:
  zan
  2021-09-23
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2009","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc933a6a39b9f43c1d2bab3734c531c4","symbols_score_info":{},"content_text":"财联社（上海，编辑 周玲）讯，巴西是全球最大咖啡生产国，但一波又一波的霜冻和干旱导致今年巴西咖啡大幅减产。据机构预测，今年巴西阿拉比卡咖啡产量可能创12年新低。\n以往9月份，巴西咖啡农户将丰收的咖啡豆装满仓库，运输卡车往往需要排队等上一整天才能取到货，但今年巴西咖啡产量如此小，长长的运输队伍几乎消失了。\n根据巴西农作物预测机构Conab数据，今年巴西阿拉比卡（ arabica）咖啡产量可能较去年减少近40%，为2009年以来最低水平。减产规模相当于全球最大咖啡消费国——美国咖啡消费量的三分之二。\n减产意味着全球咖啡豆的供应将出现严重短缺，咖啡价格将持续上涨。今年以来，美国ICE阿拉比卡咖啡期货价格上涨约45%。\n今年，多地干旱以及霜冻天气冲击了巴西农作物的生长。此外，巴西农作物产量遵循着大小年的规律，今年恰逢产量较小的一年。\nConab在周二（21日）一份报告中预测，巴西农民今年可能收获3070万袋阿拉比卡咖啡，而去年收获了4880万袋，一袋重约60公斤。\n优质咖啡阿拉比卡的短缺已经促使巴西烘焙商转向罗布斯塔(robusta)，这是一种味道更苦、价格更便宜的咖啡豆。巴西贸易商Tristao Cia主管费雷拉(Marcio Candido Ferreira)表示，今年混合咖啡中罗布斯塔的含量占比预计将从以往的50%上升到90%。\n尽管巴西罗布斯塔咖啡的产量创下了历史新高，但Ferreira称，由于买家竞相争夺供应，罗布斯塔也已经全部售罄。\n短期内紧缺态势难缓解\n预计咖啡市场的紧张局面短期内难以缓解。巴西在7月遭遇毁灭性霜冻天气之前，美国就估计巴西咖啡库存已处于几十年来最低水平。\n除了恶劣天气的影响，惠誉还表示，Mu变异新冠病毒也可能导致巴西实施长期疫情限制措施，可能出现劳动力短缺，从而破坏农作物生产。\n此外，全球第二大咖啡出口国——越南为控制疫情蔓延而实施的封锁措施，也在限制全球咖啡供应——8月越南咖啡出口环比下降了8.7%；1月至8月，越南累计咖啡出口同比下降6.4%。\n惠誉日前警告，咖啡价格到2022年仍将保持“相对较高”水平。惠誉将2021年阿拉比卡咖啡均价预测从每磅1.35美元，上调至每磅1.60美元；并将2022年预测从每磅1.25美元上调至每磅1.5美元。\n星巴克提前锁定成本\n虽然全球咖啡豆的供应呈紧张态势，但像星巴克这样的大型连锁咖啡品牌早已经锁定成本，料不会受涨价冲击。\n星巴克总裁兼首席执行官凯文·约翰逊表示，为因应咖啡豆成本攀升，星巴克已采取提前采购、锁定价格等策略，以具吸引力的成本价购入咖啡豆，避免调涨商品售价。\n“如果他们（竞争对手）提前购买咖啡豆的时间不如我们早，肯定不会有我们这样的成本结构（优势）”，约翰逊称。\n不过，从历史上看，咖啡豆的价格飙升都是短暂的。数据显示，在咖啡价格反弹60%左右后，一般供应也会随之增加。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":863383759,"gmtCreate":1632358616871,"gmtModify":1676530761262,"author":{"id":"4090707198019820","authorId":"4090707198019820","name":"Aidenmiao","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11d405f3b76b61752ea4de130a53cf2a","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4090707198019820","authorIdStr":"4090707198019820"},"htmlText":"[驚訝]&nbsp;","listText":"[驚訝]&nbsp;","text":"[驚訝]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/863383759","repostId":2169653790,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":863334663,"gmtCreate":1632357760152,"gmtModify":1676530760905,"author":{"id":"3577161019857161","authorId":"3577161019857161","name":"Weimar","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da6e5b3d505c60c5dbc3873ae72d6e3b","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577161019857161","authorIdStr":"3577161019857161"},"htmlText":"Zan","listText":"Zan","text":"Zan","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/863334663","repostId":2169653790,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5965349,"gmtCreate":1632358606046,"gmtModify":1663234303945,"authorId":4090707198019820,"author":{"id":4090707198019820,"idStr":"4090707198019820","authorId":4090707198019820,"name":"Aidenmiao","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11d405f3b76b61752ea4de130a53cf2a","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":863334663,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[呆住]","text":"[呆住]","html":"[呆住]"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":863397972,"gmtCreate":1632357155696,"gmtModify":1676530760684,"author":{"id":"3584867430360256","authorId":"3584867430360256","name":"中国ChinaATM","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd214125064b4d25501bb48cef2fb529","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a2963eb37c60c5d6d4a8dbcd266952","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3584867430360256","authorIdStr":"3584867430360256"},"htmlText":"針對我","listText":"針對我","text":"針對我","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/863397972","repostId":2169653790,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5965084,"gmtCreate":1632357753556,"gmtModify":1663234302942,"authorId":3577161019857161,"author":{"id":3577161019857161,"idStr":"3577161019857161","authorId":3577161019857161,"name":"Weimar","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da6e5b3d505c60c5dbc3873ae72d6e3b","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":863397972,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"zan","text":"zan","html":"zan"}],"langContent":"CN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":25,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}