Australia’s Core Inflation Breaks Above RBA Target Midpoint

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Australia’s Core Inflation Breaks Above RBA Target Midpoint

Bloomberg2022-01-25

Money markets are pricing in a quarter-point rate hike by MayTD Securities brings forward rate hike expectation to AugustAustralia’s core consumer prices surpassed the midpoint of the Reserve Bank’s 2...

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Bull1973
·2022-01-25
Correct
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Novice2
·2022-01-25
Inflation is common issue everywhere
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暗涌 44984tgr
·2022-01-25
Ok
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T0000024852
·2022-01-25
hi
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Lonewolf
·2022-01-25
Nice
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On a quarterly basis, the measure rose 1% versus a forecast 0.7% gain.In response, Australia’s benchmark three-year bond yields surged as much as nine basis points to 1.44%, the highest level since April 2019, as traders bet rates hikes will come sooner than the RBA has indicated. The gain eased to seven basis at 12:44 p.m. in Sydney while the currency was marginally higher.The result adds ballast to expectations the RBA will scrap its bond-buying program at next Tuesday’s meeting and potentially opens the door to rate rises this year, something Governor Philip Lowe had previously all-but ruled out. Money markets are now pricing in a quarter-point rate rise by May, while economists are increasingly landing on rate liftoff in August.Australia had previously been on the periphery of the global inflation story, allowing its central bank to remain dovish.But now the global inflation battleground has made its way Down Under, reflecting persistent supply chain disruptions and energy shortfalls. These have already prompted New Zealand and the U.K. to tighten policy and the Federal Reserve is expected to begin raising rates soon.Today’s data “seals the fate of the end of quantitative easing next week and change of forward guidance to earlier lift off from RBA’s end-23 start,” said $Royal Bank of Canada(RY-T)$’s Su-Lin Ong. “Price pressures look broad-based and while some are Covid-19/supply chain-related, others are not and are a function of a firmer economy and labor market.”The RBA holds its first board meeting of the year on Feb. 1, where it is due to decide the fate of its A$4 billion ($2.9 billion) a week purchase program. It will publish a quarterly update of economic forecasts three days later on Feb. 4.What Bloomberg Economics Says:“A stronger-than-expected acceleration in inflation leaves the Reserve Bank of Australia facing a question confounding many central banks -- what should monetary policy do, if anything, to counter faster price gains driven by supply disruptions.”--James McIntyre, economist.In his last speech of 2021, Lowe reiterated rates won’t rise until actual inflation, not forecast, is sustainably within the 2-3% target. He cited RBA forecasts showing underlying inflation will only reach the mid-point of the band in late 2023, suggesting that was a more likely timing for rate liftoff.Those inflation forecasts are very likely to be revised higher in next week’s Statement on Monetary Policy.Prashant Newnaha, Singapore-based macro strategist at TD Securities, brought forward his rate call to August from the fourth quarter previously.“By then the RBA will have another two more CPI prints to assess the CPI trend, which is likely to remain elevated as the post lockdown recovery gains traction.” Newnaha said. He sees a follow-up move in November and four hikes in 2023 which would take the cash rate to 1.5%.Other DetailsHeadline consumer price index advanced 3.5% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier compared with economists’ estimates of a 3.2% gain.Inflation gains were led by dwelling purchases and fuelTradables prices, which are typically impacted by the currency and global factors, rose 4.9% from a year earlierNon-tradable prices, which are largely affected by domestic variables like utilities and rents, advanced 2.8% on the year","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9090346034,"gmtCreate":1643098595460,"gmtModify":1676533773687,"author":{"id":"3584680402793671","authorId":"3584680402793671","authorIdStr":"3584680402793671","name":"Bull1973","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/866d29bf88ff7363d121a5ccc6028aae","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3584680402793671"},"htmlText":"Correct&nbsp;","listText":"Correct&nbsp;","text":"Correct","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9090346034","repostId":2206911881,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9090325814,"gmtCreate":1643090214690,"gmtModify":1676533773264,"author":{"id":"4094948028342190","authorId":"4094948028342190","authorIdStr":"4094948028342190","name":"Novice2","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/926c595669ac5fd03ab7d9f5526f5743","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4094948028342190"},"htmlText":"Inflation is common issue everywhere","listText":"Inflation is common issue everywhere","text":"Inflation is common issue everywhere","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9090325814","repostId":2206911881,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9090368362,"gmtCreate":1643085588880,"gmtModify":1676533772908,"author":{"id":"4098343358404650","authorId":"4098343358404650","authorIdStr":"4098343358404650","name":"暗涌 44984tgr","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4d2fb5cfce52c0c6c677c5256368e431","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4098343358404650"},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9090368362","repostId":2206911881,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9090383845,"gmtCreate":1643082928719,"gmtModify":1676533772620,"author":{"id":"3586426272011868","authorId":"3586426272011868","authorIdStr":"3586426272011868","name":"T0000024852","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/558c2124ff14f2c3586c97422ed4a346","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3586426272011868"},"htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9090383845","repostId":2206911881,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9090389541,"gmtCreate":1643082744524,"gmtModify":1676533772596,"author":{"id":"3582108668867504","authorId":"3582108668867504","authorIdStr":"3582108668867504","name":"Lonewolf","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57b5036bdbe3813d34ad83638f24538a","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582108668867504"},"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9090389541","repostId":2206911881,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":116,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}