美银“惊人”预计：美联储今年加息七次

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美银“惊人”预计：美联储今年加息七次

华尔街见闻2022-02-08

薪资上涨对工人来说是个好消息，但于美联储而言却是坏消息。如果工资增长过快，预计将推动美联储以更快的速度加息。上周五，美国劳工部公布的数据显示，1月份平均时薪环比增长0.7%，过去12个月的增幅为5.7%，这是自2007年3月以来增速最快的一次（疫情初期的两个月除外）。人们越来越多地认为，美联储在政策方面落后于通胀增速，目前美国通胀率正以近40年来最快的速度增长。周一，美国银行全球经济研究部主管...

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signs)。几乎所有收入阶层的工资都在飙升Harris在电话会议中提及美联储2020年9月批准的货币政策新方法。美联储表示，在灵活的平均通胀目标下，为了实现充分就业，允许通胀率高于2%的目标。但随着通胀率增长到7%左右，劳动力市场越来越紧张，美联储现在加速“追赶”，改变货币政策进而应对严峻的通胀形势。Harris指出，几乎所有收入阶层的工资都在飙升。受疫情影响最严重的休闲和酒店行业工资增幅最大，在过去一年的上涨了13%。金融行业的工资上涨了4.8%，而零售行业的工资更是上涨了7.1%。此前见闻文章提及，加薪“全面开花”，除了中低阶层工人提高了工资，华尔街金融机构也“你追我赶”地增加员工薪资，拜登上个月还发布了上调联邦雇员的最低工资至15美元的行政命令。工资飙升是“大辞职潮”的一部分高盛将工资飙升这一趋势视为“大辞职潮”的一部分，“大辞职潮”是指2021年以来，美国离职人数陡增，离职率处于近20年来最高水平。根据美国劳工部数据，2021年全年美国劳动力更换或离职次数为4740万人次。高盛经济学家Joseph Briggs和David Mericle在一份报告中指出，“大辞职潮”包括两个截然不同但相互关联的趋势：数百万工人离开了劳动力大军，还有数百万人为了更好、更高收入的就业机会而辞职。这些趋势已将工资涨幅推至一个越来越令人担忧的水平，即工资通胀螺旋上升。高盛数据显示，今年美国工资增长将会放缓，但只是小幅放缓，到今年预计会达到5%左右。值得一提的是，高盛预计，2022年将有四次加息。高盛经济学家指出，劳动力成本的增长速度快于2%的通胀目标，这可能会使通胀继续走高，美联储将采取更激进的应对措施。加息50个基点“合理”，但与鲍威尔“谦逊”态度不一致市场一直在缓慢地加码美联储加息，预计今年将有五次加息，但仍有可能加息更多次，而且速度更快。尽管交易员普遍预计美联储将在3月份加息25个基点，但也不排除美联储3月选择一次性大幅加息50个基点，目前加息50个基点的可能性已升至近30%。Harris表示：加息50个基点将是\"一件合理的事情\"，但这与美联储主席鲍威尔在1月FOMC会议后的新闻发布会上所支持的\"谦逊\"（humble）态度不一致。安联集团首席经济顾问Mohamed El-Erian周一在CNBC的Squawk 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