欧美制裁剑指俄罗斯外储，影响有多大？

华尔街见闻2022-02-28

俄乌局势如火如荼，而西方国家不断升级制裁，裁剑指俄罗斯外储。2月22日开始，西方各国对俄罗斯先后发起了两波制裁。2月26日晚间，美国、欧盟、英国和加拿大等西方大国突然发表联合声明，宣布禁止俄罗斯央行及几家俄主要银行使用SWIFT系统。值得注意的是，欧美在“SWIFT打击名单”中带上了俄央行，这是极其“严厉”的一招，目的在于防止俄罗斯央行通过动用“充裕的”外汇储备来降低制裁效果。斯坦福大学胡佛研究所...

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SP2021
·2022-03-01
Yue
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Jet2017
·2022-03-01
一開戰，就要關股市，現在大家明白西方制度的好處了吧！
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Futre
·2022-03-01
閱
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How big is the impact?","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80be13794a2967081c7fd38e92edc250","symbols_score_info":{"159934":0.6,"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"518880":0.6,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"GCmain":0.9,"EURmain":0.9,"SPY":0.86,"UBmain":0.64,"TNmain":0.64,"ZBmain":0.64,"ZFmain":0.64,"ZNmain":0.64,"ZTmain":0.64,"SDS":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"SH":0.6,"FXE":0.6,"GDX":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"GLD":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"NUGT":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"DJX":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"SGUmain":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"DUST":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"EUO":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"MEURmain":0.6,"MGCmain":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"SGCmain":0.6},"content_text":"俄乌局势如火如荼，而西方国家不断升级制裁，裁剑指俄罗斯外储。2月22日开始，西方各国对俄罗斯先后发起了两波制裁。2月26日晚间，美国、欧盟、英国和加拿大等西方大国突然发表联合声明，宣布禁止俄罗斯央行及几家俄主要银行使用SWIFT系统。值得注意的是，欧美在“SWIFT打击名单”中带上了俄央行，这是极其“严厉”的一招，目的在于防止俄罗斯央行通过动用“充裕的”外汇储备来降低制裁效果。斯坦福大学胡佛研究所研究员Michael S． Bernstam此前在《国会山报》刊文表示，对俄罗斯央行制裁的威胁，可能阻止俄罗斯的军事行动和在欧洲爆发新的战争。Bernstam指出，俄罗斯依赖其中央银行6380亿美元的外汇储备来支撑国家货币卢布的汇率和稳定，为银行系统和家庭存款提供保险，防止银行挤兑，救助国有和私营企业的外债，并管理1850亿美元的主权财富基金以应对财政紧急情况。但俄罗斯也不会乖乖“束手就擒”。如今俄罗斯的外汇储备已相当多元化、对美元依赖程度已大幅降低。仅仅依靠攻击俄罗斯的外储，未必能达到欧美国家预期的效果。为什么会有如此大的威力？Bernstam表示，一个重要原因是21世纪可兑换货币和国际金融数字化的结合。如果俄罗斯是一个像现已解体的苏联那样拥有不可兑换货币的封闭经济体，那么它的外汇储备将不会受到影响。但在21世纪，俄罗斯经济是开放的，卢布是可兑换的，两者都有外汇储备的支持。但这些储备主要是俄罗斯央行在美联储、欧洲央行以及类似的西方机构和清算机构的账户中的电子账目，没有实物债券和纸质证明。按照这种说法，西方国家的政府债券和其他证券，以及在西方中央银行和商业银行的主权存款，都是非实物化和无纸质证明的。例如，由200个国家的中央银行持有的美国国债在纽约联邦储备银行中仅是电脑上的账目，由纽约联储授权的交易商进行交易，销售收益通过美联储电汇和自动结算系统以电子方式传输到代理银行。　对俄罗斯来说，风险有多大？Bernstam认为，从这个角度来看，如果俄罗斯央行受到制裁，6380亿美元的外汇储备就会缩水到仅剩其残值。在6380亿美元的外汇储备中，只有120亿美元是俄罗斯央行金库中以美元和欧元计价的现金。而俄罗斯央行受到西方制裁的话，储备中价值1390亿美元的黄金将很难全部出售。而大约4030亿美元——几乎是外汇储备的三分之二，是以美元、欧元、英镑和其他西方货币计价的证券和存款。如果对俄罗斯央行实施制裁，俄罗斯在西方持有的4030亿美元外汇电子资产可能无法使用。对俄罗斯央行的制裁会带来外汇挤兑、银行挤兑和供应链挤兑。Bernstam还指出，由于只有120亿美元可用来支撑卢布，卢布汇率将会贬值。人们会用他们能以任何价格获得的任何外币作为价值储存手段。问题就在这里。与卢布相比，俄罗斯家庭和企业更青睐外汇，他们在国有储蓄银行和商业银行持有2680亿美元的存款，但他们会跑到银行来提取美元和欧元。而这些现金是银行手头没有的，也无法从没有外汇的央行那里获得。除非政府强行将外汇存款兑换成卢布，否则银行系统将会遭受冲击。由于无法获得主权财富基金来支持政府的社会支出，情况可能会更加严重：在整个供应链上，供应商将从客户那里索取美元，而经济中的有效部分将美元化，而其他部分将招致供应瓶颈和工厂停工。综上来看，Bernstam认为，对央行实施制裁对俄罗斯来说是相当大的风险。　俄罗斯的反击面对欧美的金融制裁甚至是禁止俄罗斯央行及几家俄主要银行使用SWIFT系统，俄罗斯也并不是毫无防备。2008年金融危机以来，为实施去美元化，俄罗斯制定了完整的策略，采取了减少美元直接使用、降低在外汇储备中的比例、大幅抛售美国国债、拓展非美元融资、增持黄金、建立本国的支付系统和金融信息交换系统等去美元化措施。一系列举措不仅提高了去美元化程度，同时也增使得金融系统应对风险能力不断增强。值得一提的是，不同于世界上其他国家将黄金储存在美国，出于对美国的不信任，俄罗斯在美国没有黄金储存，俄罗斯的黄金都储藏在俄央行在莫斯科的仓库里。此外，俄罗斯在拓展非美元融资渠道、货币互换与本币结算、建立本国的支付系统和金融信息交换系统等一系列方面皆收到了不错的成效。如今俄罗斯的外汇储备已相当多元化、对美元依赖程度已大幅降低。一定程度上，充足的准备帮助俄罗斯构建起了强大的金融“要塞”。与此同时，俄罗斯央行还大幅提高了基准利率，禁止外国人抛售，强制售汇。2月28日，俄罗斯央行将关键利率提升至20%，为近二十年来的最高水平，前值为9.5%。俄罗斯央行表示，外部环境发生了巨大变化，有必要加息以增强存款的吸引力。俄罗斯央行称，加息是为了抵消卢布贬值和通胀风险的增加，已准备好采取进一步措施调整利率。俄罗斯央行还宣布推迟外汇和货币市场的交易，货币市场上将不会进行货币回购的交易或结算。股票、金融期货和衍生金融工具市场的交易开始时间将另行公布。此前，俄罗斯央行宣布暂停证券交易商接受外国投资者关于出售俄罗斯有价证券的委托。股民福利来了！送您十大金股！点击查看>>海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP责任编辑：刘玄逸","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9039529261,"gmtCreate":1646089889363,"gmtModify":1676534088918,"author":{"id":"3575508103712478","authorId":"3575508103712478","name":"SP2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb4b05cedc2864e9c2d8796bb319f4bb","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575508103712478","authorIdStr":"3575508103712478"},"htmlText":"Yue","listText":"Yue","text":"Yue","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9039529261","repostId":2214161887,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":636799123,"gmtCreate":1646089704491,"gmtModify":1676532780241,"author":{"id":"3460824243893799","authorId":"3460824243893799","name":"Jet2017","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c11ae55ec0562345c2b3032207464065","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3460824243893799","authorIdStr":"3460824243893799"},"htmlText":"一開戰，就要關股市，現在大家明白西方制度的好處了吧！","listText":"一開戰，就要關股市，現在大家明白西方制度的好處了吧！","text":"一開戰，就要關股市，現在大家明白西方制度的好處了吧！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/636799123","repostId":2214161887,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9039536227,"gmtCreate":1646083492443,"gmtModify":1676534087774,"author":{"id":"3564108727353086","authorId":"3564108727353086","name":"Futre","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/912eae14e80f11fedbc3bdb7e10bb6d0","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3564108727353086","authorIdStr":"3564108727353086"},"htmlText":"閱","listText":"閱","text":"閱","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9039536227","repostId":2214161887,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":24,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":4,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}