Alibaba Stock: Tremendous Upside Potential

seekingalpha2022-03-23

SummaryWith the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen a nice recovery.I believe that despite the possible risks, the stock has tremendous upside given ...

Source Link

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

213

Report

Comment（32）

SlowNana
·2022-03-23
[Cool]
Reply
Like
Report
Ironman2002
·2022-03-23
It's a good value growth stock.
Reply
3
Report
BlueDaisy
·2022-03-23
This is like Amazon in early 2000s
Reply
Like
Report
Steven Tay
·2022-03-23
Ok
Reply
Like
Report
robot1234
·2022-03-23
On 15 March 2022, J.P. Morgan Analyst Alex Yao cut his rating on Alibaba (BABA) to underweight, and slice his price target on the company's stock to $65 a share from $180. And the counter hit a new 52-week low of HK71 in the HKSE. Yesterday, the company announced it would increase the size of its stock buyback program to $25 billion from $15 billion. Now the share is back to HK118, up HK47, an increase of 66% from it last week low.
Reply
3
Report
Johnlimwt
·2022-03-23
Good write out on BABA
Reply
1
Report
kenlim45
·2022-03-23
👍
Reply
1
Report
pal22
·2022-03-23
👍
Reply
1
Report
pal22
·2022-03-23
👍
Reply
1
Report
WaiSiong81
·2022-03-23
👍
Reply
1
Report
CarlRN
·2022-03-23
Latest
Reply
1
Report
Bodoh
·2022-03-23
Yup
Reply
3
Report
Zeniv
·2022-03-23
Nice
Reply
5
Report
Chris Tan
·2022-03-23
🌟🌟🌟🌟🌟
Reply
1
Report
xiaojn
·2022-03-23
Ok
Reply
1
Report
zolluA
·2022-03-23
BABA reversal
Reply
1
Report
Zed Ihsan
·2022-03-23
Way to go BABA
Reply
2
Report
whitewolf69
·2022-03-23
Good stock for the long-term hold
Reply
2
Report
MSTAN
·2022-03-23
👍👍
Reply
1
Report
whitewolf69
·2022-03-23
Good long-term holding stock
Reply
1
Report

Most Discussed

7x24

All

Terms and Conditions·Privacy Policy

Company: TTMF Limited. Tech supported by Xiangshang Yixin.

Email：uservice@ttm.financial

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2221979490?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"","is_english":true,"pubTime":"2022-03-23 11:52","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","id":"2221979490","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"Alibaba Stock: Tremendous Upside Potential","media":"seekingalpha","content":"<div>\nSummaryWith the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen a nice recovery.I believe that despite the possible risks, the stock has tremendous upside given ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497070-alibaba-stock-tremendous-upside-potential\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"seekingalpha","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Stock: Tremendous Upside Potential</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Stock: Tremendous Upside Potential\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-23 11:52 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497070-alibaba-stock-tremendous-upside-potential>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummaryWith the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen a nice recovery.I believe that despite the possible risks, the stock has tremendous upside given ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497070-alibaba-stock-tremendous-upside-potential\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK1517","symbol_name":"云办公","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497070-alibaba-stock-tremendous-upside-potential","article_id":"2221979490","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2221979490","pubTimestamp":1648007579,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"seekingalpha","name":"Seeking Alpha"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"SummaryWith the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK1517":"云办公","BK1502":"双十一","BK1608":"元宇宙概念","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK1575":"同股不同权","BK1584":"蚂蚁金服概念","BK4531":"中概回港概念","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","BK1501":"阿里概念股","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4575":"芯片概念","BK4558":"双十一","BK4509":"腾讯概念","BK1588":"回港中概股","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4501":"段永平概念","BK4538":"云计算","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4526":"热门中概股","BABA":"阿里巴巴","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","PDD":"拼多多","BK4502":"阿里概念","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK1521":"挪威政府全球养老基金持仓","BK1586":"云计算","NYSE":"纽交所","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","BK1142":"互联网与直销零售","BK1591":"就地过年概念","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4565":"NFT概念"},"translate_title":"阿里巴巴-SW股票：巨大的上涨潜力","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":1,"PDD":1,"NYSE":1,"QNETCN":0.6,"09988":0.6},"content_text":"SummaryWith the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen a nice recovery.I believe that despite the possible risks, the stock has tremendous upside given the company's financial track record and future earning potential.I initiate coverage on Alibaba using a 10-year EPS forecast model, and give the stock a 'Strong Buy' rating at its current valuation.David Becker/Getty Images NewsAfter the Chinese government promised to stabilize markets and ease crackdowns, Chinese equities saw a huge recovery. Shares of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. ADR (NYSE:NYSE:BABA) rose from the depths of the low 70s to over $110 a share. I believe that the company still has tremendous upside from its current valuation due to its impressive financial track record over the years, and its ability to stay on track in the years to come. Despite an increase of over 50% from its recent low, the company is still undervalued.The crash and the recoveryShares of Alibaba Group sank to a terrifying low of $73.28 a share early last week, after the SEC announced its plans to delist five Chinese companies due to a lack of compliance with auditing requirements. Investors fled from Chinese equities, resulting in a massive plunge in their share prices. Alibaba was no exception, and its stock, which had already taken a beating over the past few weeks, sank to lows that haven't been seen in years. Yet, just when all hope seemed to be lost, the Chinese government stepped in to reassure investors that they would stabilize these turbulent markets, and potentially ease regulations so that Chinese companies can remain listed in overseas markets. The positive news which came mid last week triggered a near-vertical recovery in Chinese equities, whose share prices soared by double digits over the next few days. We now see Alibaba stock trading at over $110 a share, and I believe there's more upside to come.Impressive financialsTo understand how well Alibaba has been doing, let's go over a few financial metrics.Revenue growthAlibaba's revenue growth has remained in the double digits for the past few years. The company earned $182.51 billion HKD in revenue in 2017, and this number has grown to $820.2 billion HKD as of last year's annual report. This represents a net growth in revenue of almost 350% over those 5 years.Alibaba's e-commerce revenue growth (Statista)A quick look at their e-commerce revenue growth in domestic and international markets show that there has been a sustained uptrend in both departments over the past decade, and there is good reason to believe that revenue prospects for the company will remain strong in the years to come.Share buybackAlibaba has announced a massive $25 billion share buyback program, which came shortly after the Chinese government restored investors' faith in Chinese equities. The value of the buyback is almost 10% of the company's current market capitalization, which stands at about $280 billion. This is extremely significant, and represents a substantial growth in stake ownership for the company's shareholders. The fact that the company is financially able to buy back such a large amount of shares is also a good reflection of its ability to generate free cash flows.Earnings per shareAlibaba's diluted EPS has grown from 2.45 in 2017 to 7.82 in 2021, representing an approximate 219% increase over those 5 years. This is a good indication that the company has been greatly profitable over the years. As a result, it is able to distribute more of these profits to its shareholders.Free cash flow growthAlibaba has seen a massive increase in free cash flow, from $72.39 billion HKD in 2017 to $215.66 billion HKD in 2021, representing a near 200% growth over 5 years. This is a good sign that the company is managing its operating expenses and capital expenditures well. In addition, the free cash flow-to-long term debt ratio sits at 1.11 as of 2021, which shows that the company is more than able to pay off its financial obligations. These are very promising signs that the company is in very good financial health, and is at no risk whatsoever of going under.China's growing affluenceAnother important point is that Alibaba thrives in an increasingly affluent market. China's middle class has grown from about 3% of the population in 2000 to over 50% today, and the trend shows no clear signs of pulling back. Projections show that by 2030, most of China's urban households will be in the middle income bracket and above. With an increasingly affluent market to tap into, Alibaba is likely to see a significant and sustained increase in demand for its products. This would hugely benefit the company's financials and help it stay on its impressive trajectory.Potential risksWhile there's a lot to be positive about, there are some undeniable risks that need to be mentioned.Losing market shareWhile Alibaba remains largely dominant in the Chinese market, its market share in the e-commerce industry is starting to fall due to changing consumption habits and a rise in competition. One such competitor is Pinduoduo (NASDAQ:PDD), which has proven to be formidable in the e-commerce business with its innovative methods to appeal to commerce communities. This could present a challenge for Alibaba, and it is not certain whether the company is still able to retain its large market share in the years to come.Regulatory risksWhile the Chinese government has shown signs of regulatory easing, we should never get too comfortable. Regulations concerning Chinese companies are always unpredictable, and the future of Chinese equities still bears a great deal of uncertainty. In addition, the SEC is starting to clamp down harder on foreign companies which are not compliant with any of their auditing requirements. The risks which arise from both sides still exist, and one can never be too careful, especially in today's regulatory climate.Alibaba stock valuationI will be using an EPS forecast model to determine a fair valuation of Alibaba stock. The model will be applied over 10 years, starting from 2021's EPS of 7.82. Before I do this, let me go over some of the metrics I will be using in my calculations.MetricsAssumptions used for EPS forecast model (Prepared by author)Projected annual change in shares outstandingI've projected an average annual decrease of 1% in shares outstanding over the next 10 years. This is a reasonably conservative estimate, considering the magnitude of the share buyback program.Projected annual growth rateI've projected an average annual growth rate of 15%, which seems to be a fairly conservative estimate considering the company's long-term earning potential.Minimum annual rate of returnI've gone for a desired annual return of 12.5%, which beats the returns of a good Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF by a decent margin.Margin of safetyWhile Alibaba is a Chinese company that is generally exposed to more regulatory risk, I do believe that my previous assumptions are conservative enough and a 20% margin of safety is sufficient for this calculation.Projected P/EI'll be assuming a projected P/E of 20, which is, again, a fairly low value compared to the company's P/E over the years. We could very likely see a much higher P/E than this in the future, but once again, let's be conservative. For some reference, Alibaba's current P/E (at the time of writing) is about 28.Price targetEPS Forecast for Alibaba Stock (Prepared by author)Based on our relatively conservative assumptions, we've arrived at a price target of $172.36. This means that if I were to invest in Alibaba at $172.36 a share, I would be getting an average annual return of 12.5% over 10 years. The current price of Alibaba stock sits at just above $110, and this shows that there is tremendous upside based on our current assumptions, which are already on the conservative side.ConclusionWhile Alibaba may face challenges in the future, I do believe that the company is on a great financial trajectory, and has tremendous upside in terms of its valuation. I conclude my analysis with a price target of $172.36, and a 'Strong Buy' rating at today's valuation.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9037118286,"gmtCreate":1648048577821,"gmtModify":1676534297151,"author":{"id":"3586490126059662","authorId":"3586490126059662","name":"SlowNana","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3586490126059662","authorIdStr":"3586490126059662"},"htmlText":"[Cool]&nbsp;","listText":"[Cool]&nbsp;","text":"[Cool]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9037118286","repostId":2221979490,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2221979490","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1648007579,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2221979490?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-23 11:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Stock: Tremendous Upside Potential","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2221979490","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryWith the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen","content":"<html><head></head><body>Summary<ul><li>With the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen a nice recovery.</li><li>I believe that despite the possible risks, the stock has tremendous upside given the company&#39;s financial track record and future earning potential.</li><li>I initiate coverage on Alibaba using a 10-year EPS forecast model, and give the stock a &#39;Strong Buy&#39; rating at its current valuation.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c7e5ba4a836568115de5c2d8498356e\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"469\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>David Becker/Getty Images NewsAfter the Chinese government promised to stabilize markets and ease crackdowns, Chinese equities saw a huge recovery. Shares of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. ADR (NYSE:NYSE:BABA) rose from the depths of the low 70s to over $110 a share. I believe that the company still has tremendous upside from its current valuation due to its impressive financial track record over the years, and its ability to stay on track in the years to come. Despite an increase of over 50% from its recent low, the company is still undervalued.The crash and the recoveryShares of Alibaba Group sank to a terrifying low of $73.28 a share early last week, after the SEC announced its plans to delist five Chinese companies due to a lack of compliance with auditing requirements. Investors fled from Chinese equities, resulting in a massive plunge in their share prices. Alibaba was no exception, and its stock, which had already taken a beating over the past few weeks, sank to lows that haven&#39;t been seen in years. Yet, just when all hope seemed to be lost, the Chinese government stepped in to reassure investors that they would stabilize these turbulent markets, and potentially ease regulations so that Chinese companies can remain listed in overseas markets. The positive news which came mid last week triggered a near-vertical recovery in Chinese equities, whose share prices soared by double digits over the next few days. We now see Alibaba stock trading at over $110 a share, and I believe there&#39;s more upside to come.Impressive financialsTo understand how well Alibaba has been doing, let&#39;s go over a few financial metrics.Revenue growthAlibaba&#39;s revenue growth has remained in the double digits for the past few years. The company earned $182.51 billion HKD in revenue in 2017, and this number has grown to $820.2 billion HKD as of last year&#39;s annual report. This represents a net growth in revenue of almost 350% over those 5 years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c02fbb86072d4364834fb5dff4c85880\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"476\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Alibaba&#39;s e-commerce revenue growth (Statista)A quick look at their e-commerce revenue growth in domestic and international markets show that there has been a sustained uptrend in both departments over the past decade, and there is good reason to believe that revenue prospects for the company will remain strong in the years to come.Share buybackAlibaba has announced a massive $25 billion share buyback program, which came shortly after the Chinese government restored investors&#39; faith in Chinese equities. The value of the buyback is almost 10% of the company&#39;s current market capitalization, which stands at about $280 billion. This is extremely significant, and represents a substantial growth in stake ownership for the company&#39;s shareholders. The fact that the company is financially able to buy back such a large amount of shares is also a good reflection of its ability to generate free cash flows.Earnings per shareAlibaba&#39;s diluted EPS has grown from 2.45 in 2017 to 7.82 in 2021, representing an approximate 219% increase over those 5 years. This is a good indication that the company has been greatly profitable over the years. As a result, it is able to distribute more of these profits to its shareholders.Free cash flow growthAlibaba has seen a massive increase in free cash flow, from $72.39 billion HKD in 2017 to $215.66 billion HKD in 2021, representing a near 200% growth over 5 years. This is a good sign that the company is managing its operating expenses and capital expenditures well. In addition, the free cash flow-to-long term debt ratio sits at 1.11 as of 2021, which shows that the company is more than able to pay off its financial obligations. These are very promising signs that the company is in very good financial health, and is at no risk whatsoever of going under.China&#39;s growing affluenceAnother important point is that Alibaba thrives in an increasingly affluent market. China&#39;s middle class has grown from about 3% of the population in 2000 to over 50% today, and the trend shows no clear signs of pulling back. Projections show that by 2030, most of China&#39;s urban households will be in the middle income bracket and above. With an increasingly affluent market to tap into, Alibaba is likely to see a significant and sustained increase in demand for its products. This would hugely benefit the company&#39;s financials and help it stay on its impressive trajectory.Potential risksWhile there&#39;s a lot to be positive about, there are some undeniable risks that need to be mentioned.Losing market shareWhile Alibaba remains largely dominant in the Chinese market, its market share in the e-commerce industry is starting to fall due to changing consumption habits and a rise in competition. One such competitor is Pinduoduo (NASDAQ:PDD), which has proven to be formidable in the e-commerce business with its innovative methods to appeal to commerce communities. This could present a challenge for Alibaba, and it is not certain whether the company is still able to retain its large market share in the years to come.Regulatory risksWhile the Chinese government has shown signs of regulatory easing, we should never get too comfortable. Regulations concerning Chinese companies are always unpredictable, and the future of Chinese equities still bears a great deal of uncertainty. In addition, the SEC is starting to clamp down harder on foreign companies which are not compliant with any of their auditing requirements. The risks which arise from both sides still exist, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> can never be too careful, especially in today&#39;s regulatory climate.Alibaba stock valuationI will be using an EPS forecast model to determine a fair valuation of Alibaba stock. The model will be applied over 10 years, starting from 2021&#39;s EPS of 7.82. Before I do this, let me go over some of the metrics I will be using in my calculations.Metrics<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aee8ef6644c09c16436ffe9b15b5d329\" tg-width=\"350\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Assumptions used for EPS forecast model (Prepared by author)Projected annual change in shares outstandingI&#39;ve projected an average annual decrease of 1% in shares outstanding over the next 10 years. This is a reasonably conservative estimate, considering the magnitude of the share buyback program.Projected annual growth rateI&#39;ve projected an average annual growth rate of 15%, which seems to be a fairly conservative estimate considering the company&#39;s long-term earning potential.Minimum annual rate of returnI&#39;ve gone for a desired annual return of 12.5%, which beats the returns of a good <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSFF\">Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF</a> by a decent margin.Margin of safetyWhile Alibaba is a Chinese company that is generally exposed to more regulatory risk, I do believe that my previous assumptions are conservative enough and a 20% margin of safety is sufficient for this calculation.Projected P/EI&#39;ll be assuming a projected P/E of 20, which is, again, a fairly low value compared to the company&#39;s P/E over the years. We could very likely see a much higher P/E than this in the future, but once again, let&#39;s be conservative. For some reference, Alibaba&#39;s current P/E (at the time of writing) is about 28.Price target<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e60a2da9b185d8fe76a2b6a8e23a6704\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>EPS Forecast for Alibaba Stock (Prepared by author)Based on our relatively conservative assumptions, we&#39;ve arrived at a price target of $172.36. This means that if I were to invest in Alibaba at $172.36 a share, I would be getting an average annual return of 12.5% over 10 years. The current price of Alibaba stock sits at just above $110, and this shows that there is tremendous upside based on our current assumptions, which are already on the conservative side.ConclusionWhile Alibaba may face challenges in the future, I do believe that the company is on a great financial trajectory, and has tremendous upside in terms of its valuation. I conclude my analysis with a price target of $172.36, and a &#39;Strong Buy&#39; rating at today&#39;s valuation.</body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Stock: Tremendous Upside Potential</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Stock: Tremendous Upside Potential\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-23 11:52 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497070-alibaba-stock-tremendous-upside-potential>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummaryWith the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen a nice recovery.I believe that despite the possible risks, the stock has tremendous upside given ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497070-alibaba-stock-tremendous-upside-potential\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK1142":"互联网与直销零售","BK1591":"就地过年概念","BK4565":"NFT概念","BK1502":"双十一","BK1517":"云办公","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","BK1608":"元宇宙概念","BK1575":"同股不同权","BK1584":"蚂蚁金服概念","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","PDD":"拼多多","BK1501":"阿里概念股","BK4531":"中概回港概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BABA":"阿里巴巴","NYSE":"纽交所","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4558":"双十一","BK4575":"芯片概念","BK4509":"腾讯概念","BK1588":"回港中概股","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4501":"段永平概念","BK4538":"云计算","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4526":"热门中概股","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","BK4502":"阿里概念","BK1521":"挪威政府全球养老基金持仓","BK1586":"云计算","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497070-alibaba-stock-tremendous-upside-potential","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2221979490","content_text":"SummaryWith the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen a nice recovery.I believe that despite the possible risks, the stock has tremendous upside given the company's financial track record and future earning potential.I initiate coverage on Alibaba using a 10-year EPS forecast model, and give the stock a 'Strong Buy' rating at its current valuation.David Becker/Getty Images NewsAfter the Chinese government promised to stabilize markets and ease crackdowns, Chinese equities saw a huge recovery. Shares of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. ADR (NYSE:NYSE:BABA) rose from the depths of the low 70s to over $110 a share. I believe that the company still has tremendous upside from its current valuation due to its impressive financial track record over the years, and its ability to stay on track in the years to come. Despite an increase of over 50% from its recent low, the company is still undervalued.The crash and the recoveryShares of Alibaba Group sank to a terrifying low of $73.28 a share early last week, after the SEC announced its plans to delist five Chinese companies due to a lack of compliance with auditing requirements. Investors fled from Chinese equities, resulting in a massive plunge in their share prices. Alibaba was no exception, and its stock, which had already taken a beating over the past few weeks, sank to lows that haven't been seen in years. Yet, just when all hope seemed to be lost, the Chinese government stepped in to reassure investors that they would stabilize these turbulent markets, and potentially ease regulations so that Chinese companies can remain listed in overseas markets. The positive news which came mid last week triggered a near-vertical recovery in Chinese equities, whose share prices soared by double digits over the next few days. We now see Alibaba stock trading at over $110 a share, and I believe there's more upside to come.Impressive financialsTo understand how well Alibaba has been doing, let's go over a few financial metrics.Revenue growthAlibaba's revenue growth has remained in the double digits for the past few years. The company earned $182.51 billion HKD in revenue in 2017, and this number has grown to $820.2 billion HKD as of last year's annual report. This represents a net growth in revenue of almost 350% over those 5 years.Alibaba's e-commerce revenue growth (Statista)A quick look at their e-commerce revenue growth in domestic and international markets show that there has been a sustained uptrend in both departments over the past decade, and there is good reason to believe that revenue prospects for the company will remain strong in the years to come.Share buybackAlibaba has announced a massive $25 billion share buyback program, which came shortly after the Chinese government restored investors' faith in Chinese equities. The value of the buyback is almost 10% of the company's current market capitalization, which stands at about $280 billion. This is extremely significant, and represents a substantial growth in stake ownership for the company's shareholders. The fact that the company is financially able to buy back such a large amount of shares is also a good reflection of its ability to generate free cash flows.Earnings per shareAlibaba's diluted EPS has grown from 2.45 in 2017 to 7.82 in 2021, representing an approximate 219% increase over those 5 years. This is a good indication that the company has been greatly profitable over the years. As a result, it is able to distribute more of these profits to its shareholders.Free cash flow growthAlibaba has seen a massive increase in free cash flow, from $72.39 billion HKD in 2017 to $215.66 billion HKD in 2021, representing a near 200% growth over 5 years. This is a good sign that the company is managing its operating expenses and capital expenditures well. In addition, the free cash flow-to-long term debt ratio sits at 1.11 as of 2021, which shows that the company is more than able to pay off its financial obligations. These are very promising signs that the company is in very good financial health, and is at no risk whatsoever of going under.China's growing affluenceAnother important point is that Alibaba thrives in an increasingly affluent market. China's middle class has grown from about 3% of the population in 2000 to over 50% today, and the trend shows no clear signs of pulling back. Projections show that by 2030, most of China's urban households will be in the middle income bracket and above. With an increasingly affluent market to tap into, Alibaba is likely to see a significant and sustained increase in demand for its products. This would hugely benefit the company's financials and help it stay on its impressive trajectory.Potential risksWhile there's a lot to be positive about, there are some undeniable risks that need to be mentioned.Losing market shareWhile Alibaba remains largely dominant in the Chinese market, its market share in the e-commerce industry is starting to fall due to changing consumption habits and a rise in competition. One such competitor is Pinduoduo (NASDAQ:PDD), which has proven to be formidable in the e-commerce business with its innovative methods to appeal to commerce communities. This could present a challenge for Alibaba, and it is not certain whether the company is still able to retain its large market share in the years to come.Regulatory risksWhile the Chinese government has shown signs of regulatory easing, we should never get too comfortable. Regulations concerning Chinese companies are always unpredictable, and the future of Chinese equities still bears a great deal of uncertainty. In addition, the SEC is starting to clamp down harder on foreign companies which are not compliant with any of their auditing requirements. The risks which arise from both sides still exist, and one can never be too careful, especially in today's regulatory climate.Alibaba stock valuationI will be using an EPS forecast model to determine a fair valuation of Alibaba stock. The model will be applied over 10 years, starting from 2021's EPS of 7.82. Before I do this, let me go over some of the metrics I will be using in my calculations.MetricsAssumptions used for EPS forecast model (Prepared by author)Projected annual change in shares outstandingI've projected an average annual decrease of 1% in shares outstanding over the next 10 years. This is a reasonably conservative estimate, considering the magnitude of the share buyback program.Projected annual growth rateI've projected an average annual growth rate of 15%, which seems to be a fairly conservative estimate considering the company's long-term earning potential.Minimum annual rate of returnI've gone for a desired annual return of 12.5%, which beats the returns of a good Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF by a decent margin.Margin of safetyWhile Alibaba is a Chinese company that is generally exposed to more regulatory risk, I do believe that my previous assumptions are conservative enough and a 20% margin of safety is sufficient for this calculation.Projected P/EI'll be assuming a projected P/E of 20, which is, again, a fairly low value compared to the company's P/E over the years. We could very likely see a much higher P/E than this in the future, but once again, let's be conservative. For some reference, Alibaba's current P/E (at the time of writing) is about 28.Price targetEPS Forecast for Alibaba Stock (Prepared by author)Based on our relatively conservative assumptions, we've arrived at a price target of $172.36. This means that if I were to invest in Alibaba at $172.36 a share, I would be getting an average annual return of 12.5% over 10 years. The current price of Alibaba stock sits at just above $110, and this shows that there is tremendous upside based on our current assumptions, which are already on the conservative side.ConclusionWhile Alibaba may face challenges in the future, I do believe that the company is on a great financial trajectory, and has tremendous upside in terms of its valuation. I conclude my analysis with a price target of $172.36, and a 'Strong Buy' rating at today's valuation.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9037397934,"gmtCreate":1648023460976,"gmtModify":1676534294059,"author":{"id":"4094301913132990","authorId":"4094301913132990","name":"Ironman2002","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/784449fc945cf9d5c7b81316e20a221c","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4094301913132990","authorIdStr":"4094301913132990"},"htmlText":"It's a good value growth stock.","listText":"It's a good value growth stock.","text":"It's a good value growth stock.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9037397934","repostId":2221979490,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2221979490","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1648007579,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2221979490?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-23 11:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Stock: Tremendous Upside Potential","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2221979490","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryWith the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen","content":"<html><head></head><body>Summary<ul><li>With the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen a nice recovery.</li><li>I believe that despite the possible risks, the stock has tremendous upside given the company&#39;s financial track record and future earning potential.</li><li>I initiate coverage on Alibaba using a 10-year EPS forecast model, and give the stock a &#39;Strong Buy&#39; rating at its current valuation.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c7e5ba4a836568115de5c2d8498356e\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"469\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>David Becker/Getty Images NewsAfter the Chinese government promised to stabilize markets and ease crackdowns, Chinese equities saw a huge recovery. Shares of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. ADR (NYSE:NYSE:BABA) rose from the depths of the low 70s to over $110 a share. I believe that the company still has tremendous upside from its current valuation due to its impressive financial track record over the years, and its ability to stay on track in the years to come. Despite an increase of over 50% from its recent low, the company is still undervalued.The crash and the recoveryShares of Alibaba Group sank to a terrifying low of $73.28 a share early last week, after the SEC announced its plans to delist five Chinese companies due to a lack of compliance with auditing requirements. Investors fled from Chinese equities, resulting in a massive plunge in their share prices. Alibaba was no exception, and its stock, which had already taken a beating over the past few weeks, sank to lows that haven&#39;t been seen in years. Yet, just when all hope seemed to be lost, the Chinese government stepped in to reassure investors that they would stabilize these turbulent markets, and potentially ease regulations so that Chinese companies can remain listed in overseas markets. The positive news which came mid last week triggered a near-vertical recovery in Chinese equities, whose share prices soared by double digits over the next few days. We now see Alibaba stock trading at over $110 a share, and I believe there&#39;s more upside to come.Impressive financialsTo understand how well Alibaba has been doing, let&#39;s go over a few financial metrics.Revenue growthAlibaba&#39;s revenue growth has remained in the double digits for the past few years. The company earned $182.51 billion HKD in revenue in 2017, and this number has grown to $820.2 billion HKD as of last year&#39;s annual report. This represents a net growth in revenue of almost 350% over those 5 years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c02fbb86072d4364834fb5dff4c85880\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"476\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Alibaba&#39;s e-commerce revenue growth (Statista)A quick look at their e-commerce revenue growth in domestic and international markets show that there has been a sustained uptrend in both departments over the past decade, and there is good reason to believe that revenue prospects for the company will remain strong in the years to come.Share buybackAlibaba has announced a massive $25 billion share buyback program, which came shortly after the Chinese government restored investors&#39; faith in Chinese equities. The value of the buyback is almost 10% of the company&#39;s current market capitalization, which stands at about $280 billion. This is extremely significant, and represents a substantial growth in stake ownership for the company&#39;s shareholders. The fact that the company is financially able to buy back such a large amount of shares is also a good reflection of its ability to generate free cash flows.Earnings per shareAlibaba&#39;s diluted EPS has grown from 2.45 in 2017 to 7.82 in 2021, representing an approximate 219% increase over those 5 years. This is a good indication that the company has been greatly profitable over the years. As a result, it is able to distribute more of these profits to its shareholders.Free cash flow growthAlibaba has seen a massive increase in free cash flow, from $72.39 billion HKD in 2017 to $215.66 billion HKD in 2021, representing a near 200% growth over 5 years. This is a good sign that the company is managing its operating expenses and capital expenditures well. In addition, the free cash flow-to-long term debt ratio sits at 1.11 as of 2021, which shows that the company is more than able to pay off its financial obligations. These are very promising signs that the company is in very good financial health, and is at no risk whatsoever of going under.China&#39;s growing affluenceAnother important point is that Alibaba thrives in an increasingly affluent market. China&#39;s middle class has grown from about 3% of the population in 2000 to over 50% today, and the trend shows no clear signs of pulling back. Projections show that by 2030, most of China&#39;s urban households will be in the middle income bracket and above. With an increasingly affluent market to tap into, Alibaba is likely to see a significant and sustained increase in demand for its products. This would hugely benefit the company&#39;s financials and help it stay on its impressive trajectory.Potential risksWhile there&#39;s a lot to be positive about, there are some undeniable risks that need to be mentioned.Losing market shareWhile Alibaba remains largely dominant in the Chinese market, its market share in the e-commerce industry is starting to fall due to changing consumption habits and a rise in competition. One such competitor is Pinduoduo (NASDAQ:PDD), which has proven to be formidable in the e-commerce business with its innovative methods to appeal to commerce communities. This could present a challenge for Alibaba, and it is not certain whether the company is still able to retain its large market share in the years to come.Regulatory risksWhile the Chinese government has shown signs of regulatory easing, we should never get too comfortable. Regulations concerning Chinese companies are always unpredictable, and the future of Chinese equities still bears a great deal of uncertainty. In addition, the SEC is starting to clamp down harder on foreign companies which are not compliant with any of their auditing requirements. The risks which arise from both sides still exist, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> can never be too careful, especially in today&#39;s regulatory climate.Alibaba stock valuationI will be using an EPS forecast model to determine a fair valuation of Alibaba stock. The model will be applied over 10 years, starting from 2021&#39;s EPS of 7.82. Before I do this, let me go over some of the metrics I will be using in my calculations.Metrics<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aee8ef6644c09c16436ffe9b15b5d329\" tg-width=\"350\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Assumptions used for EPS forecast model (Prepared by author)Projected annual change in shares outstandingI&#39;ve projected an average annual decrease of 1% in shares outstanding over the next 10 years. This is a reasonably conservative estimate, considering the magnitude of the share buyback program.Projected annual growth rateI&#39;ve projected an average annual growth rate of 15%, which seems to be a fairly conservative estimate considering the company&#39;s long-term earning potential.Minimum annual rate of returnI&#39;ve gone for a desired annual return of 12.5%, which beats the returns of a good <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSFF\">Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF</a> by a decent margin.Margin of safetyWhile Alibaba is a Chinese company that is generally exposed to more regulatory risk, I do believe that my previous assumptions are conservative enough and a 20% margin of safety is sufficient for this calculation.Projected P/EI&#39;ll be assuming a projected P/E of 20, which is, again, a fairly low value compared to the company&#39;s P/E over the years. We could very likely see a much higher P/E than this in the future, but once again, let&#39;s be conservative. For some reference, Alibaba&#39;s current P/E (at the time of writing) is about 28.Price target<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e60a2da9b185d8fe76a2b6a8e23a6704\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>EPS Forecast for Alibaba Stock (Prepared by author)Based on our relatively conservative assumptions, we&#39;ve arrived at a price target of $172.36. This means that if I were to invest in Alibaba at $172.36 a share, I would be getting an average annual return of 12.5% over 10 years. The current price of Alibaba stock sits at just above $110, and this shows that there is tremendous upside based on our current assumptions, which are already on the conservative side.ConclusionWhile Alibaba may face challenges in the future, I do believe that the company is on a great financial trajectory, and has tremendous upside in terms of its valuation. I conclude my analysis with a price target of $172.36, and a &#39;Strong Buy&#39; rating at today&#39;s valuation.</body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Stock: Tremendous Upside Potential</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Stock: Tremendous Upside Potential\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-23 11:52 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497070-alibaba-stock-tremendous-upside-potential>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummaryWith the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen a nice recovery.I believe that despite the possible risks, the stock has tremendous upside given ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497070-alibaba-stock-tremendous-upside-potential\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK1142":"互联网与直销零售","BK1591":"就地过年概念","BK4565":"NFT概念","BK1502":"双十一","BK1517":"云办公","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","BK1608":"元宇宙概念","BK1575":"同股不同权","BK1584":"蚂蚁金服概念","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","PDD":"拼多多","BK1501":"阿里概念股","BK4531":"中概回港概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BABA":"阿里巴巴","NYSE":"纽交所","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4558":"双十一","BK4575":"芯片概念","BK4509":"腾讯概念","BK1588":"回港中概股","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4501":"段永平概念","BK4538":"云计算","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4526":"热门中概股","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","BK4502":"阿里概念","BK1521":"挪威政府全球养老基金持仓","BK1586":"云计算","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497070-alibaba-stock-tremendous-upside-potential","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2221979490","content_text":"SummaryWith the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen a nice recovery.I believe that despite the possible risks, the stock has tremendous upside given the company's financial track record and future earning potential.I initiate coverage on Alibaba using a 10-year EPS forecast model, and give the stock a 'Strong Buy' rating at its current valuation.David Becker/Getty Images NewsAfter the Chinese government promised to stabilize markets and ease crackdowns, Chinese equities saw a huge recovery. Shares of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. ADR (NYSE:NYSE:BABA) rose from the depths of the low 70s to over $110 a share. I believe that the company still has tremendous upside from its current valuation due to its impressive financial track record over the years, and its ability to stay on track in the years to come. Despite an increase of over 50% from its recent low, the company is still undervalued.The crash and the recoveryShares of Alibaba Group sank to a terrifying low of $73.28 a share early last week, after the SEC announced its plans to delist five Chinese companies due to a lack of compliance with auditing requirements. Investors fled from Chinese equities, resulting in a massive plunge in their share prices. Alibaba was no exception, and its stock, which had already taken a beating over the past few weeks, sank to lows that haven't been seen in years. Yet, just when all hope seemed to be lost, the Chinese government stepped in to reassure investors that they would stabilize these turbulent markets, and potentially ease regulations so that Chinese companies can remain listed in overseas markets. The positive news which came mid last week triggered a near-vertical recovery in Chinese equities, whose share prices soared by double digits over the next few days. We now see Alibaba stock trading at over $110 a share, and I believe there's more upside to come.Impressive financialsTo understand how well Alibaba has been doing, let's go over a few financial metrics.Revenue growthAlibaba's revenue growth has remained in the double digits for the past few years. The company earned $182.51 billion HKD in revenue in 2017, and this number has grown to $820.2 billion HKD as of last year's annual report. This represents a net growth in revenue of almost 350% over those 5 years.Alibaba's e-commerce revenue growth (Statista)A quick look at their e-commerce revenue growth in domestic and international markets show that there has been a sustained uptrend in both departments over the past decade, and there is good reason to believe that revenue prospects for the company will remain strong in the years to come.Share buybackAlibaba has announced a massive $25 billion share buyback program, which came shortly after the Chinese government restored investors' faith in Chinese equities. The value of the buyback is almost 10% of the company's current market capitalization, which stands at about $280 billion. This is extremely significant, and represents a substantial growth in stake ownership for the company's shareholders. The fact that the company is financially able to buy back such a large amount of shares is also a good reflection of its ability to generate free cash flows.Earnings per shareAlibaba's diluted EPS has grown from 2.45 in 2017 to 7.82 in 2021, representing an approximate 219% increase over those 5 years. This is a good indication that the company has been greatly profitable over the years. As a result, it is able to distribute more of these profits to its shareholders.Free cash flow growthAlibaba has seen a massive increase in free cash flow, from $72.39 billion HKD in 2017 to $215.66 billion HKD in 2021, representing a near 200% growth over 5 years. This is a good sign that the company is managing its operating expenses and capital expenditures well. In addition, the free cash flow-to-long term debt ratio sits at 1.11 as of 2021, which shows that the company is more than able to pay off its financial obligations. These are very promising signs that the company is in very good financial health, and is at no risk whatsoever of going under.China's growing affluenceAnother important point is that Alibaba thrives in an increasingly affluent market. China's middle class has grown from about 3% of the population in 2000 to over 50% today, and the trend shows no clear signs of pulling back. Projections show that by 2030, most of China's urban households will be in the middle income bracket and above. With an increasingly affluent market to tap into, Alibaba is likely to see a significant and sustained increase in demand for its products. This would hugely benefit the company's financials and help it stay on its impressive trajectory.Potential risksWhile there's a lot to be positive about, there are some undeniable risks that need to be mentioned.Losing market shareWhile Alibaba remains largely dominant in the Chinese market, its market share in the e-commerce industry is starting to fall due to changing consumption habits and a rise in competition. One such competitor is Pinduoduo (NASDAQ:PDD), which has proven to be formidable in the e-commerce business with its innovative methods to appeal to commerce communities. This could present a challenge for Alibaba, and it is not certain whether the company is still able to retain its large market share in the years to come.Regulatory risksWhile the Chinese government has shown signs of regulatory easing, we should never get too comfortable. Regulations concerning Chinese companies are always unpredictable, and the future of Chinese equities still bears a great deal of uncertainty. In addition, the SEC is starting to clamp down harder on foreign companies which are not compliant with any of their auditing requirements. The risks which arise from both sides still exist, and one can never be too careful, especially in today's regulatory climate.Alibaba stock valuationI will be using an EPS forecast model to determine a fair valuation of Alibaba stock. The model will be applied over 10 years, starting from 2021's EPS of 7.82. Before I do this, let me go over some of the metrics I will be using in my calculations.MetricsAssumptions used for EPS forecast model (Prepared by author)Projected annual change in shares outstandingI've projected an average annual decrease of 1% in shares outstanding over the next 10 years. This is a reasonably conservative estimate, considering the magnitude of the share buyback program.Projected annual growth rateI've projected an average annual growth rate of 15%, which seems to be a fairly conservative estimate considering the company's long-term earning potential.Minimum annual rate of returnI've gone for a desired annual return of 12.5%, which beats the returns of a good Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF by a decent margin.Margin of safetyWhile Alibaba is a Chinese company that is generally exposed to more regulatory risk, I do believe that my previous assumptions are conservative enough and a 20% margin of safety is sufficient for this calculation.Projected P/EI'll be assuming a projected P/E of 20, which is, again, a fairly low value compared to the company's P/E over the years. We could very likely see a much higher P/E than this in the future, but once again, let's be conservative. For some reference, Alibaba's current P/E (at the time of writing) is about 28.Price targetEPS Forecast for Alibaba Stock (Prepared by author)Based on our relatively conservative assumptions, we've arrived at a price target of $172.36. This means that if I were to invest in Alibaba at $172.36 a share, I would be getting an average annual return of 12.5% over 10 years. The current price of Alibaba stock sits at just above $110, and this shows that there is tremendous upside based on our current assumptions, which are already on the conservative side.ConclusionWhile Alibaba may face challenges in the future, I do believe that the company is on a great financial trajectory, and has tremendous upside in terms of its valuation. I conclude my analysis with a price target of $172.36, and a 'Strong Buy' rating at today's valuation.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9037396016,"gmtCreate":1648022677942,"gmtModify":1676534293963,"author":{"id":"3582677971530678","authorId":"3582677971530678","name":"BlueDaisy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0747094283743978b62fb8b1ee2cf44c","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582677971530678","authorIdStr":"3582677971530678"},"htmlText":"This is like Amazon in early 2000s","listText":"This is like Amazon in early 2000s","text":"This is like Amazon in early 2000s","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9037396016","repostId":2221979490,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2221979490","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1648007579,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2221979490?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-23 11:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Stock: Tremendous Upside Potential","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2221979490","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryWith the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen","content":"<html><head></head><body>Summary<ul><li>With the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen a nice recovery.</li><li>I believe that despite the possible risks, the stock has tremendous upside given the company&#39;s financial track record and future earning potential.</li><li>I initiate coverage on Alibaba using a 10-year EPS forecast model, and give the stock a &#39;Strong Buy&#39; rating at its current valuation.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c7e5ba4a836568115de5c2d8498356e\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"469\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>David Becker/Getty Images NewsAfter the Chinese government promised to stabilize markets and ease crackdowns, Chinese equities saw a huge recovery. Shares of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. ADR (NYSE:NYSE:BABA) rose from the depths of the low 70s to over $110 a share. I believe that the company still has tremendous upside from its current valuation due to its impressive financial track record over the years, and its ability to stay on track in the years to come. Despite an increase of over 50% from its recent low, the company is still undervalued.The crash and the recoveryShares of Alibaba Group sank to a terrifying low of $73.28 a share early last week, after the SEC announced its plans to delist five Chinese companies due to a lack of compliance with auditing requirements. Investors fled from Chinese equities, resulting in a massive plunge in their share prices. Alibaba was no exception, and its stock, which had already taken a beating over the past few weeks, sank to lows that haven&#39;t been seen in years. Yet, just when all hope seemed to be lost, the Chinese government stepped in to reassure investors that they would stabilize these turbulent markets, and potentially ease regulations so that Chinese companies can remain listed in overseas markets. The positive news which came mid last week triggered a near-vertical recovery in Chinese equities, whose share prices soared by double digits over the next few days. We now see Alibaba stock trading at over $110 a share, and I believe there&#39;s more upside to come.Impressive financialsTo understand how well Alibaba has been doing, let&#39;s go over a few financial metrics.Revenue growthAlibaba&#39;s revenue growth has remained in the double digits for the past few years. The company earned $182.51 billion HKD in revenue in 2017, and this number has grown to $820.2 billion HKD as of last year&#39;s annual report. This represents a net growth in revenue of almost 350% over those 5 years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c02fbb86072d4364834fb5dff4c85880\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"476\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Alibaba&#39;s e-commerce revenue growth (Statista)A quick look at their e-commerce revenue growth in domestic and international markets show that there has been a sustained uptrend in both departments over the past decade, and there is good reason to believe that revenue prospects for the company will remain strong in the years to come.Share buybackAlibaba has announced a massive $25 billion share buyback program, which came shortly after the Chinese government restored investors&#39; faith in Chinese equities. The value of the buyback is almost 10% of the company&#39;s current market capitalization, which stands at about $280 billion. This is extremely significant, and represents a substantial growth in stake ownership for the company&#39;s shareholders. The fact that the company is financially able to buy back such a large amount of shares is also a good reflection of its ability to generate free cash flows.Earnings per shareAlibaba&#39;s diluted EPS has grown from 2.45 in 2017 to 7.82 in 2021, representing an approximate 219% increase over those 5 years. This is a good indication that the company has been greatly profitable over the years. As a result, it is able to distribute more of these profits to its shareholders.Free cash flow growthAlibaba has seen a massive increase in free cash flow, from $72.39 billion HKD in 2017 to $215.66 billion HKD in 2021, representing a near 200% growth over 5 years. This is a good sign that the company is managing its operating expenses and capital expenditures well. In addition, the free cash flow-to-long term debt ratio sits at 1.11 as of 2021, which shows that the company is more than able to pay off its financial obligations. These are very promising signs that the company is in very good financial health, and is at no risk whatsoever of going under.China&#39;s growing affluenceAnother important point is that Alibaba thrives in an increasingly affluent market. China&#39;s middle class has grown from about 3% of the population in 2000 to over 50% today, and the trend shows no clear signs of pulling back. Projections show that by 2030, most of China&#39;s urban households will be in the middle income bracket and above. With an increasingly affluent market to tap into, Alibaba is likely to see a significant and sustained increase in demand for its products. This would hugely benefit the company&#39;s financials and help it stay on its impressive trajectory.Potential risksWhile there&#39;s a lot to be positive about, there are some undeniable risks that need to be mentioned.Losing market shareWhile Alibaba remains largely dominant in the Chinese market, its market share in the e-commerce industry is starting to fall due to changing consumption habits and a rise in competition. One such competitor is Pinduoduo (NASDAQ:PDD), which has proven to be formidable in the e-commerce business with its innovative methods to appeal to commerce communities. This could present a challenge for Alibaba, and it is not certain whether the company is still able to retain its large market share in the years to come.Regulatory risksWhile the Chinese government has shown signs of regulatory easing, we should never get too comfortable. Regulations concerning Chinese companies are always unpredictable, and the future of Chinese equities still bears a great deal of uncertainty. In addition, the SEC is starting to clamp down harder on foreign companies which are not compliant with any of their auditing requirements. The risks which arise from both sides still exist, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> can never be too careful, especially in today&#39;s regulatory climate.Alibaba stock valuationI will be using an EPS forecast model to determine a fair valuation of Alibaba stock. The model will be applied over 10 years, starting from 2021&#39;s EPS of 7.82. Before I do this, let me go over some of the metrics I will be using in my calculations.Metrics<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aee8ef6644c09c16436ffe9b15b5d329\" tg-width=\"350\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Assumptions used for EPS forecast model (Prepared by author)Projected annual change in shares outstandingI&#39;ve projected an average annual decrease of 1% in shares outstanding over the next 10 years. This is a reasonably conservative estimate, considering the magnitude of the share buyback program.Projected annual growth rateI&#39;ve projected an average annual growth rate of 15%, which seems to be a fairly conservative estimate considering the company&#39;s long-term earning potential.Minimum annual rate of returnI&#39;ve gone for a desired annual return of 12.5%, which beats the returns of a good <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSFF\">Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF</a> by a decent margin.Margin of safetyWhile Alibaba is a Chinese company that is generally exposed to more regulatory risk, I do believe that my previous assumptions are conservative enough and a 20% margin of safety is sufficient for this calculation.Projected P/EI&#39;ll be assuming a projected P/E of 20, which is, again, a fairly low value compared to the company&#39;s P/E over the years. We could very likely see a much higher P/E than this in the future, but once again, let&#39;s be conservative. For some reference, Alibaba&#39;s current P/E (at the time of writing) is about 28.Price target<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e60a2da9b185d8fe76a2b6a8e23a6704\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>EPS Forecast for Alibaba Stock (Prepared by author)Based on our relatively conservative assumptions, we&#39;ve arrived at a price target of $172.36. This means that if I were to invest in Alibaba at $172.36 a share, I would be getting an average annual return of 12.5% over 10 years. The current price of Alibaba stock sits at just above $110, and this shows that there is tremendous upside based on our current assumptions, which are already on the conservative side.ConclusionWhile Alibaba may face challenges in the future, I do believe that the company is on a great financial trajectory, and has tremendous upside in terms of its valuation. I conclude my analysis with a price target of $172.36, and a &#39;Strong Buy&#39; rating at today&#39;s valuation.</body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Stock: Tremendous Upside Potential</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Stock: Tremendous Upside Potential\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-23 11:52 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497070-alibaba-stock-tremendous-upside-potential>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummaryWith the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen a nice recovery.I believe that despite the possible risks, the stock has tremendous upside given ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497070-alibaba-stock-tremendous-upside-potential\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK1142":"互联网与直销零售","BK1591":"就地过年概念","BK4565":"NFT概念","BK1502":"双十一","BK1517":"云办公","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","BK1608":"元宇宙概念","BK1575":"同股不同权","BK1584":"蚂蚁金服概念","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","PDD":"拼多多","BK1501":"阿里概念股","BK4531":"中概回港概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BABA":"阿里巴巴","NYSE":"纽交所","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4558":"双十一","BK4575":"芯片概念","BK4509":"腾讯概念","BK1588":"回港中概股","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4501":"段永平概念","BK4538":"云计算","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4526":"热门中概股","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","BK4502":"阿里概念","BK1521":"挪威政府全球养老基金持仓","BK1586":"云计算","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497070-alibaba-stock-tremendous-upside-potential","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2221979490","content_text":"SummaryWith the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen a nice recovery.I believe that despite the possible risks, the stock has tremendous upside given the company's financial track record and future earning potential.I initiate coverage on Alibaba using a 10-year EPS forecast model, and give the stock a 'Strong Buy' rating at its current valuation.David Becker/Getty Images NewsAfter the Chinese government promised to stabilize markets and ease crackdowns, Chinese equities saw a huge recovery. Shares of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. ADR (NYSE:NYSE:BABA) rose from the depths of the low 70s to over $110 a share. I believe that the company still has tremendous upside from its current valuation due to its impressive financial track record over the years, and its ability to stay on track in the years to come. Despite an increase of over 50% from its recent low, the company is still undervalued.The crash and the recoveryShares of Alibaba Group sank to a terrifying low of $73.28 a share early last week, after the SEC announced its plans to delist five Chinese companies due to a lack of compliance with auditing requirements. Investors fled from Chinese equities, resulting in a massive plunge in their share prices. Alibaba was no exception, and its stock, which had already taken a beating over the past few weeks, sank to lows that haven't been seen in years. Yet, just when all hope seemed to be lost, the Chinese government stepped in to reassure investors that they would stabilize these turbulent markets, and potentially ease regulations so that Chinese companies can remain listed in overseas markets. The positive news which came mid last week triggered a near-vertical recovery in Chinese equities, whose share prices soared by double digits over the next few days. We now see Alibaba stock trading at over $110 a share, and I believe there's more upside to come.Impressive financialsTo understand how well Alibaba has been doing, let's go over a few financial metrics.Revenue growthAlibaba's revenue growth has remained in the double digits for the past few years. The company earned $182.51 billion HKD in revenue in 2017, and this number has grown to $820.2 billion HKD as of last year's annual report. This represents a net growth in revenue of almost 350% over those 5 years.Alibaba's e-commerce revenue growth (Statista)A quick look at their e-commerce revenue growth in domestic and international markets show that there has been a sustained uptrend in both departments over the past decade, and there is good reason to believe that revenue prospects for the company will remain strong in the years to come.Share buybackAlibaba has announced a massive $25 billion share buyback program, which came shortly after the Chinese government restored investors' faith in Chinese equities. The value of the buyback is almost 10% of the company's current market capitalization, which stands at about $280 billion. This is extremely significant, and represents a substantial growth in stake ownership for the company's shareholders. The fact that the company is financially able to buy back such a large amount of shares is also a good reflection of its ability to generate free cash flows.Earnings per shareAlibaba's diluted EPS has grown from 2.45 in 2017 to 7.82 in 2021, representing an approximate 219% increase over those 5 years. This is a good indication that the company has been greatly profitable over the years. As a result, it is able to distribute more of these profits to its shareholders.Free cash flow growthAlibaba has seen a massive increase in free cash flow, from $72.39 billion HKD in 2017 to $215.66 billion HKD in 2021, representing a near 200% growth over 5 years. This is a good sign that the company is managing its operating expenses and capital expenditures well. In addition, the free cash flow-to-long term debt ratio sits at 1.11 as of 2021, which shows that the company is more than able to pay off its financial obligations. These are very promising signs that the company is in very good financial health, and is at no risk whatsoever of going under.China's growing affluenceAnother important point is that Alibaba thrives in an increasingly affluent market. China's middle class has grown from about 3% of the population in 2000 to over 50% today, and the trend shows no clear signs of pulling back. Projections show that by 2030, most of China's urban households will be in the middle income bracket and above. With an increasingly affluent market to tap into, Alibaba is likely to see a significant and sustained increase in demand for its products. This would hugely benefit the company's financials and help it stay on its impressive trajectory.Potential risksWhile there's a lot to be positive about, there are some undeniable risks that need to be mentioned.Losing market shareWhile Alibaba remains largely dominant in the Chinese market, its market share in the e-commerce industry is starting to fall due to changing consumption habits and a rise in competition. One such competitor is Pinduoduo (NASDAQ:PDD), which has proven to be formidable in the e-commerce business with its innovative methods to appeal to commerce communities. This could present a challenge for Alibaba, and it is not certain whether the company is still able to retain its large market share in the years to come.Regulatory risksWhile the Chinese government has shown signs of regulatory easing, we should never get too comfortable. Regulations concerning Chinese companies are always unpredictable, and the future of Chinese equities still bears a great deal of uncertainty. In addition, the SEC is starting to clamp down harder on foreign companies which are not compliant with any of their auditing requirements. The risks which arise from both sides still exist, and one can never be too careful, especially in today's regulatory climate.Alibaba stock valuationI will be using an EPS forecast model to determine a fair valuation of Alibaba stock. The model will be applied over 10 years, starting from 2021's EPS of 7.82. Before I do this, let me go over some of the metrics I will be using in my calculations.MetricsAssumptions used for EPS forecast model (Prepared by author)Projected annual change in shares outstandingI've projected an average annual decrease of 1% in shares outstanding over the next 10 years. This is a reasonably conservative estimate, considering the magnitude of the share buyback program.Projected annual growth rateI've projected an average annual growth rate of 15%, which seems to be a fairly conservative estimate considering the company's long-term earning potential.Minimum annual rate of returnI've gone for a desired annual return of 12.5%, which beats the returns of a good Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF by a decent margin.Margin of safetyWhile Alibaba is a Chinese company that is generally exposed to more regulatory risk, I do believe that my previous assumptions are conservative enough and a 20% margin of safety is sufficient for this calculation.Projected P/EI'll be assuming a projected P/E of 20, which is, again, a fairly low value compared to the company's P/E over the years. We could very likely see a much higher P/E than this in the future, but once again, let's be conservative. For some reference, Alibaba's current P/E (at the time of writing) is about 28.Price targetEPS Forecast for Alibaba Stock (Prepared by author)Based on our relatively conservative assumptions, we've arrived at a price target of $172.36. This means that if I were to invest in Alibaba at $172.36 a share, I would be getting an average annual return of 12.5% over 10 years. The current price of Alibaba stock sits at just above $110, and this shows that there is tremendous upside based on our current assumptions, which are already on the conservative side.ConclusionWhile Alibaba may face challenges in the future, I do believe that the company is on a great financial trajectory, and has tremendous upside in terms of its valuation. I conclude my analysis with a price target of $172.36, and a 'Strong Buy' rating at today's valuation.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9037391088,"gmtCreate":1648021681030,"gmtModify":1676534293940,"author":{"id":"4099285253763630","authorId":"4099285253763630","name":"Steven Tay","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4099285253763630","authorIdStr":"4099285253763630"},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9037391088","repostId":2221979490,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2221979490","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1648007579,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2221979490?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-23 11:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Stock: Tremendous Upside Potential","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2221979490","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryWith the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen","content":"<html><head></head><body>Summary<ul><li>With the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen a nice recovery.</li><li>I believe that despite the possible risks, the stock has tremendous upside given the company&#39;s financial track record and future earning potential.</li><li>I initiate coverage on Alibaba using a 10-year EPS forecast model, and give the stock a &#39;Strong Buy&#39; rating at its current valuation.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c7e5ba4a836568115de5c2d8498356e\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"469\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>David Becker/Getty Images NewsAfter the Chinese government promised to stabilize markets and ease crackdowns, Chinese equities saw a huge recovery. Shares of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. ADR (NYSE:NYSE:BABA) rose from the depths of the low 70s to over $110 a share. I believe that the company still has tremendous upside from its current valuation due to its impressive financial track record over the years, and its ability to stay on track in the years to come. Despite an increase of over 50% from its recent low, the company is still undervalued.The crash and the recoveryShares of Alibaba Group sank to a terrifying low of $73.28 a share early last week, after the SEC announced its plans to delist five Chinese companies due to a lack of compliance with auditing requirements. Investors fled from Chinese equities, resulting in a massive plunge in their share prices. Alibaba was no exception, and its stock, which had already taken a beating over the past few weeks, sank to lows that haven&#39;t been seen in years. Yet, just when all hope seemed to be lost, the Chinese government stepped in to reassure investors that they would stabilize these turbulent markets, and potentially ease regulations so that Chinese companies can remain listed in overseas markets. The positive news which came mid last week triggered a near-vertical recovery in Chinese equities, whose share prices soared by double digits over the next few days. We now see Alibaba stock trading at over $110 a share, and I believe there&#39;s more upside to come.Impressive financialsTo understand how well Alibaba has been doing, let&#39;s go over a few financial metrics.Revenue growthAlibaba&#39;s revenue growth has remained in the double digits for the past few years. The company earned $182.51 billion HKD in revenue in 2017, and this number has grown to $820.2 billion HKD as of last year&#39;s annual report. This represents a net growth in revenue of almost 350% over those 5 years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c02fbb86072d4364834fb5dff4c85880\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"476\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Alibaba&#39;s e-commerce revenue growth (Statista)A quick look at their e-commerce revenue growth in domestic and international markets show that there has been a sustained uptrend in both departments over the past decade, and there is good reason to believe that revenue prospects for the company will remain strong in the years to come.Share buybackAlibaba has announced a massive $25 billion share buyback program, which came shortly after the Chinese government restored investors&#39; faith in Chinese equities. The value of the buyback is almost 10% of the company&#39;s current market capitalization, which stands at about $280 billion. This is extremely significant, and represents a substantial growth in stake ownership for the company&#39;s shareholders. The fact that the company is financially able to buy back such a large amount of shares is also a good reflection of its ability to generate free cash flows.Earnings per shareAlibaba&#39;s diluted EPS has grown from 2.45 in 2017 to 7.82 in 2021, representing an approximate 219% increase over those 5 years. This is a good indication that the company has been greatly profitable over the years. As a result, it is able to distribute more of these profits to its shareholders.Free cash flow growthAlibaba has seen a massive increase in free cash flow, from $72.39 billion HKD in 2017 to $215.66 billion HKD in 2021, representing a near 200% growth over 5 years. This is a good sign that the company is managing its operating expenses and capital expenditures well. In addition, the free cash flow-to-long term debt ratio sits at 1.11 as of 2021, which shows that the company is more than able to pay off its financial obligations. These are very promising signs that the company is in very good financial health, and is at no risk whatsoever of going under.China&#39;s growing affluenceAnother important point is that Alibaba thrives in an increasingly affluent market. China&#39;s middle class has grown from about 3% of the population in 2000 to over 50% today, and the trend shows no clear signs of pulling back. Projections show that by 2030, most of China&#39;s urban households will be in the middle income bracket and above. With an increasingly affluent market to tap into, Alibaba is likely to see a significant and sustained increase in demand for its products. This would hugely benefit the company&#39;s financials and help it stay on its impressive trajectory.Potential risksWhile there&#39;s a lot to be positive about, there are some undeniable risks that need to be mentioned.Losing market shareWhile Alibaba remains largely dominant in the Chinese market, its market share in the e-commerce industry is starting to fall due to changing consumption habits and a rise in competition. One such competitor is Pinduoduo (NASDAQ:PDD), which has proven to be formidable in the e-commerce business with its innovative methods to appeal to commerce communities. This could present a challenge for Alibaba, and it is not certain whether the company is still able to retain its large market share in the years to come.Regulatory risksWhile the Chinese government has shown signs of regulatory easing, we should never get too comfortable. Regulations concerning Chinese companies are always unpredictable, and the future of Chinese equities still bears a great deal of uncertainty. In addition, the SEC is starting to clamp down harder on foreign companies which are not compliant with any of their auditing requirements. The risks which arise from both sides still exist, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> can never be too careful, especially in today&#39;s regulatory climate.Alibaba stock valuationI will be using an EPS forecast model to determine a fair valuation of Alibaba stock. The model will be applied over 10 years, starting from 2021&#39;s EPS of 7.82. Before I do this, let me go over some of the metrics I will be using in my calculations.Metrics<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aee8ef6644c09c16436ffe9b15b5d329\" tg-width=\"350\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Assumptions used for EPS forecast model (Prepared by author)Projected annual change in shares outstandingI&#39;ve projected an average annual decrease of 1% in shares outstanding over the next 10 years. This is a reasonably conservative estimate, considering the magnitude of the share buyback program.Projected annual growth rateI&#39;ve projected an average annual growth rate of 15%, which seems to be a fairly conservative estimate considering the company&#39;s long-term earning potential.Minimum annual rate of returnI&#39;ve gone for a desired annual return of 12.5%, which beats the returns of a good <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSFF\">Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF</a> by a decent margin.Margin of safetyWhile Alibaba is a Chinese company that is generally exposed to more regulatory risk, I do believe that my previous assumptions are conservative enough and a 20% margin of safety is sufficient for this calculation.Projected P/EI&#39;ll be assuming a projected P/E of 20, which is, again, a fairly low value compared to the company&#39;s P/E over the years. We could very likely see a much higher P/E than this in the future, but once again, let&#39;s be conservative. For some reference, Alibaba&#39;s current P/E (at the time of writing) is about 28.Price target<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e60a2da9b185d8fe76a2b6a8e23a6704\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>EPS Forecast for Alibaba Stock (Prepared by author)Based on our relatively conservative assumptions, we&#39;ve arrived at a price target of $172.36. This means that if I were to invest in Alibaba at $172.36 a share, I would be getting an average annual return of 12.5% over 10 years. The current price of Alibaba stock sits at just above $110, and this shows that there is tremendous upside based on our current assumptions, which are already on the conservative side.ConclusionWhile Alibaba may face challenges in the future, I do believe that the company is on a great financial trajectory, and has tremendous upside in terms of its valuation. I conclude my analysis with a price target of $172.36, and a &#39;Strong Buy&#39; rating at today&#39;s valuation.</body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Stock: Tremendous Upside Potential</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Stock: Tremendous Upside Potential\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-23 11:52 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497070-alibaba-stock-tremendous-upside-potential>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummaryWith the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen a nice recovery.I believe that despite the possible risks, the stock has tremendous upside given ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497070-alibaba-stock-tremendous-upside-potential\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK1142":"互联网与直销零售","BK1591":"就地过年概念","BK4565":"NFT概念","BK1502":"双十一","BK1517":"云办公","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","BK1608":"元宇宙概念","BK1575":"同股不同权","BK1584":"蚂蚁金服概念","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","PDD":"拼多多","BK1501":"阿里概念股","BK4531":"中概回港概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BABA":"阿里巴巴","NYSE":"纽交所","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4558":"双十一","BK4575":"芯片概念","BK4509":"腾讯概念","BK1588":"回港中概股","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4501":"段永平概念","BK4538":"云计算","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4526":"热门中概股","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","BK4502":"阿里概念","BK1521":"挪威政府全球养老基金持仓","BK1586":"云计算","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497070-alibaba-stock-tremendous-upside-potential","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2221979490","content_text":"SummaryWith the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen a nice recovery.I believe that despite the possible risks, the stock has tremendous upside given the company's financial track record and future earning potential.I initiate coverage on Alibaba using a 10-year EPS forecast model, and give the stock a 'Strong Buy' rating at its current valuation.David Becker/Getty Images NewsAfter the Chinese government promised to stabilize markets and ease crackdowns, Chinese equities saw a huge recovery. Shares of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. ADR (NYSE:NYSE:BABA) rose from the depths of the low 70s to over $110 a share. I believe that the company still has tremendous upside from its current valuation due to its impressive financial track record over the years, and its ability to stay on track in the years to come. Despite an increase of over 50% from its recent low, the company is still undervalued.The crash and the recoveryShares of Alibaba Group sank to a terrifying low of $73.28 a share early last week, after the SEC announced its plans to delist five Chinese companies due to a lack of compliance with auditing requirements. Investors fled from Chinese equities, resulting in a massive plunge in their share prices. Alibaba was no exception, and its stock, which had already taken a beating over the past few weeks, sank to lows that haven't been seen in years. Yet, just when all hope seemed to be lost, the Chinese government stepped in to reassure investors that they would stabilize these turbulent markets, and potentially ease regulations so that Chinese companies can remain listed in overseas markets. The positive news which came mid last week triggered a near-vertical recovery in Chinese equities, whose share prices soared by double digits over the next few days. We now see Alibaba stock trading at over $110 a share, and I believe there's more upside to come.Impressive financialsTo understand how well Alibaba has been doing, let's go over a few financial metrics.Revenue growthAlibaba's revenue growth has remained in the double digits for the past few years. The company earned $182.51 billion HKD in revenue in 2017, and this number has grown to $820.2 billion HKD as of last year's annual report. This represents a net growth in revenue of almost 350% over those 5 years.Alibaba's e-commerce revenue growth (Statista)A quick look at their e-commerce revenue growth in domestic and international markets show that there has been a sustained uptrend in both departments over the past decade, and there is good reason to believe that revenue prospects for the company will remain strong in the years to come.Share buybackAlibaba has announced a massive $25 billion share buyback program, which came shortly after the Chinese government restored investors' faith in Chinese equities. The value of the buyback is almost 10% of the company's current market capitalization, which stands at about $280 billion. This is extremely significant, and represents a substantial growth in stake ownership for the company's shareholders. The fact that the company is financially able to buy back such a large amount of shares is also a good reflection of its ability to generate free cash flows.Earnings per shareAlibaba's diluted EPS has grown from 2.45 in 2017 to 7.82 in 2021, representing an approximate 219% increase over those 5 years. This is a good indication that the company has been greatly profitable over the years. As a result, it is able to distribute more of these profits to its shareholders.Free cash flow growthAlibaba has seen a massive increase in free cash flow, from $72.39 billion HKD in 2017 to $215.66 billion HKD in 2021, representing a near 200% growth over 5 years. This is a good sign that the company is managing its operating expenses and capital expenditures well. In addition, the free cash flow-to-long term debt ratio sits at 1.11 as of 2021, which shows that the company is more than able to pay off its financial obligations. These are very promising signs that the company is in very good financial health, and is at no risk whatsoever of going under.China's growing affluenceAnother important point is that Alibaba thrives in an increasingly affluent market. China's middle class has grown from about 3% of the population in 2000 to over 50% today, and the trend shows no clear signs of pulling back. Projections show that by 2030, most of China's urban households will be in the middle income bracket and above. With an increasingly affluent market to tap into, Alibaba is likely to see a significant and sustained increase in demand for its products. This would hugely benefit the company's financials and help it stay on its impressive trajectory.Potential risksWhile there's a lot to be positive about, there are some undeniable risks that need to be mentioned.Losing market shareWhile Alibaba remains largely dominant in the Chinese market, its market share in the e-commerce industry is starting to fall due to changing consumption habits and a rise in competition. One such competitor is Pinduoduo (NASDAQ:PDD), which has proven to be formidable in the e-commerce business with its innovative methods to appeal to commerce communities. This could present a challenge for Alibaba, and it is not certain whether the company is still able to retain its large market share in the years to come.Regulatory risksWhile the Chinese government has shown signs of regulatory easing, we should never get too comfortable. Regulations concerning Chinese companies are always unpredictable, and the future of Chinese equities still bears a great deal of uncertainty. In addition, the SEC is starting to clamp down harder on foreign companies which are not compliant with any of their auditing requirements. The risks which arise from both sides still exist, and one can never be too careful, especially in today's regulatory climate.Alibaba stock valuationI will be using an EPS forecast model to determine a fair valuation of Alibaba stock. The model will be applied over 10 years, starting from 2021's EPS of 7.82. Before I do this, let me go over some of the metrics I will be using in my calculations.MetricsAssumptions used for EPS forecast model (Prepared by author)Projected annual change in shares outstandingI've projected an average annual decrease of 1% in shares outstanding over the next 10 years. This is a reasonably conservative estimate, considering the magnitude of the share buyback program.Projected annual growth rateI've projected an average annual growth rate of 15%, which seems to be a fairly conservative estimate considering the company's long-term earning potential.Minimum annual rate of returnI've gone for a desired annual return of 12.5%, which beats the returns of a good Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF by a decent margin.Margin of safetyWhile Alibaba is a Chinese company that is generally exposed to more regulatory risk, I do believe that my previous assumptions are conservative enough and a 20% margin of safety is sufficient for this calculation.Projected P/EI'll be assuming a projected P/E of 20, which is, again, a fairly low value compared to the company's P/E over the years. We could very likely see a much higher P/E than this in the future, but once again, let's be conservative. For some reference, Alibaba's current P/E (at the time of writing) is about 28.Price targetEPS Forecast for Alibaba Stock (Prepared by author)Based on our relatively conservative assumptions, we've arrived at a price target of $172.36. This means that if I were to invest in Alibaba at $172.36 a share, I would be getting an average annual return of 12.5% over 10 years. The current price of Alibaba stock sits at just above $110, and this shows that there is tremendous upside based on our current assumptions, which are already on the conservative side.ConclusionWhile Alibaba may face challenges in the future, I do believe that the company is on a great financial trajectory, and has tremendous upside in terms of its valuation. I conclude my analysis with a price target of $172.36, and a 'Strong Buy' rating at today's valuation.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9037399026,"gmtCreate":1648020749173,"gmtModify":1676534293875,"author":{"id":"3561596430587504","authorId":"3561596430587504","name":"robot1234","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a2963eb37c60c5d6d4a8dbcd266952","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3561596430587504","authorIdStr":"3561596430587504"},"htmlText":"On 15 March 2022,&nbsp;J.P. Morgan Analyst Alex Yao cut his rating on Alibaba (BABA) to underweight, and slice his price target on the company's stock to $65 a share from $180. And the counter hit a&nbsp;new 52-week low of HK71 in the HKSE.&nbsp;Yesterday, the company announced it would increase the size of its stock buyback program to $25 billion from $15 billion. Now the share is back to HK118, up HK47, an increase of&nbsp;66% from it last week low.&nbsp;","listText":"On 15 March 2022,&nbsp;J.P. Morgan Analyst Alex Yao cut his rating on Alibaba (BABA) to underweight, and slice his price target on the company's stock to $65 a share from $180. And the counter hit a&nbsp;new 52-week low of HK71 in the HKSE.&nbsp;Yesterday, the company announced it would increase the size of its stock buyback program to $25 billion from $15 billion. Now the share is back to HK118, up HK47, an increase of&nbsp;66% from it last week low.&nbsp;","text":"On 15 March 2022, J.P. Morgan Analyst Alex Yao cut his rating on Alibaba (BABA) to underweight, and slice his price target on the company's stock to $65 a share from $180. And the counter hit a new 52-week low of HK71 in the HKSE. Yesterday, the company announced it would increase the size of its stock buyback program to $25 billion from $15 billion. Now the share is back to HK118, up HK47, an increase of 66% from it last week low.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9037399026","repostId":2221979490,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2221979490","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1648007579,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2221979490?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-23 11:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Stock: Tremendous Upside Potential","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2221979490","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryWith the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen","content":"<html><head></head><body>Summary<ul><li>With the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen a nice recovery.</li><li>I believe that despite the possible risks, the stock has tremendous upside given the company&#39;s financial track record and future earning potential.</li><li>I initiate coverage on Alibaba using a 10-year EPS forecast model, and give the stock a &#39;Strong Buy&#39; rating at its current valuation.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c7e5ba4a836568115de5c2d8498356e\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"469\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>David Becker/Getty Images NewsAfter the Chinese government promised to stabilize markets and ease crackdowns, Chinese equities saw a huge recovery. Shares of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. ADR (NYSE:NYSE:BABA) rose from the depths of the low 70s to over $110 a share. I believe that the company still has tremendous upside from its current valuation due to its impressive financial track record over the years, and its ability to stay on track in the years to come. Despite an increase of over 50% from its recent low, the company is still undervalued.The crash and the recoveryShares of Alibaba Group sank to a terrifying low of $73.28 a share early last week, after the SEC announced its plans to delist five Chinese companies due to a lack of compliance with auditing requirements. Investors fled from Chinese equities, resulting in a massive plunge in their share prices. Alibaba was no exception, and its stock, which had already taken a beating over the past few weeks, sank to lows that haven&#39;t been seen in years. Yet, just when all hope seemed to be lost, the Chinese government stepped in to reassure investors that they would stabilize these turbulent markets, and potentially ease regulations so that Chinese companies can remain listed in overseas markets. The positive news which came mid last week triggered a near-vertical recovery in Chinese equities, whose share prices soared by double digits over the next few days. We now see Alibaba stock trading at over $110 a share, and I believe there&#39;s more upside to come.Impressive financialsTo understand how well Alibaba has been doing, let&#39;s go over a few financial metrics.Revenue growthAlibaba&#39;s revenue growth has remained in the double digits for the past few years. The company earned $182.51 billion HKD in revenue in 2017, and this number has grown to $820.2 billion HKD as of last year&#39;s annual report. This represents a net growth in revenue of almost 350% over those 5 years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c02fbb86072d4364834fb5dff4c85880\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"476\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Alibaba&#39;s e-commerce revenue growth (Statista)A quick look at their e-commerce revenue growth in domestic and international markets show that there has been a sustained uptrend in both departments over the past decade, and there is good reason to believe that revenue prospects for the company will remain strong in the years to come.Share buybackAlibaba has announced a massive $25 billion share buyback program, which came shortly after the Chinese government restored investors&#39; faith in Chinese equities. The value of the buyback is almost 10% of the company&#39;s current market capitalization, which stands at about $280 billion. This is extremely significant, and represents a substantial growth in stake ownership for the company&#39;s shareholders. The fact that the company is financially able to buy back such a large amount of shares is also a good reflection of its ability to generate free cash flows.Earnings per shareAlibaba&#39;s diluted EPS has grown from 2.45 in 2017 to 7.82 in 2021, representing an approximate 219% increase over those 5 years. This is a good indication that the company has been greatly profitable over the years. As a result, it is able to distribute more of these profits to its shareholders.Free cash flow growthAlibaba has seen a massive increase in free cash flow, from $72.39 billion HKD in 2017 to $215.66 billion HKD in 2021, representing a near 200% growth over 5 years. This is a good sign that the company is managing its operating expenses and capital expenditures well. In addition, the free cash flow-to-long term debt ratio sits at 1.11 as of 2021, which shows that the company is more than able to pay off its financial obligations. These are very promising signs that the company is in very good financial health, and is at no risk whatsoever of going under.China&#39;s growing affluenceAnother important point is that Alibaba thrives in an increasingly affluent market. China&#39;s middle class has grown from about 3% of the population in 2000 to over 50% today, and the trend shows no clear signs of pulling back. Projections show that by 2030, most of China&#39;s urban households will be in the middle income bracket and above. With an increasingly affluent market to tap into, Alibaba is likely to see a significant and sustained increase in demand for its products. This would hugely benefit the company&#39;s financials and help it stay on its impressive trajectory.Potential risksWhile there&#39;s a lot to be positive about, there are some undeniable risks that need to be mentioned.Losing market shareWhile Alibaba remains largely dominant in the Chinese market, its market share in the e-commerce industry is starting to fall due to changing consumption habits and a rise in competition. One such competitor is Pinduoduo (NASDAQ:PDD), which has proven to be formidable in the e-commerce business with its innovative methods to appeal to commerce communities. This could present a challenge for Alibaba, and it is not certain whether the company is still able to retain its large market share in the years to come.Regulatory risksWhile the Chinese government has shown signs of regulatory easing, we should never get too comfortable. Regulations concerning Chinese companies are always unpredictable, and the future of Chinese equities still bears a great deal of uncertainty. In addition, the SEC is starting to clamp down harder on foreign companies which are not compliant with any of their auditing requirements. The risks which arise from both sides still exist, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> can never be too careful, especially in today&#39;s regulatory climate.Alibaba stock valuationI will be using an EPS forecast model to determine a fair valuation of Alibaba stock. The model will be applied over 10 years, starting from 2021&#39;s EPS of 7.82. Before I do this, let me go over some of the metrics I will be using in my calculations.Metrics<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aee8ef6644c09c16436ffe9b15b5d329\" tg-width=\"350\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Assumptions used for EPS forecast model (Prepared by author)Projected annual change in shares outstandingI&#39;ve projected an average annual decrease of 1% in shares outstanding over the next 10 years. This is a reasonably conservative estimate, considering the magnitude of the share buyback program.Projected annual growth rateI&#39;ve projected an average annual growth rate of 15%, which seems to be a fairly conservative estimate considering the company&#39;s long-term earning potential.Minimum annual rate of returnI&#39;ve gone for a desired annual return of 12.5%, which beats the returns of a good <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSFF\">Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF</a> by a decent margin.Margin of safetyWhile Alibaba is a Chinese company that is generally exposed to more regulatory risk, I do believe that my previous assumptions are conservative enough and a 20% margin of safety is sufficient for this calculation.Projected P/EI&#39;ll be assuming a projected P/E of 20, which is, again, a fairly low value compared to the company&#39;s P/E over the years. We could very likely see a much higher P/E than this in the future, but once again, let&#39;s be conservative. For some reference, Alibaba&#39;s current P/E (at the time of writing) is about 28.Price target<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e60a2da9b185d8fe76a2b6a8e23a6704\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>EPS Forecast for Alibaba Stock (Prepared by author)Based on our relatively conservative assumptions, we&#39;ve arrived at a price target of $172.36. This means that if I were to invest in Alibaba at $172.36 a share, I would be getting an average annual return of 12.5% over 10 years. The current price of Alibaba stock sits at just above $110, and this shows that there is tremendous upside based on our current assumptions, which are already on the conservative side.ConclusionWhile Alibaba may face challenges in the future, I do believe that the company is on a great financial trajectory, and has tremendous upside in terms of its valuation. I conclude my analysis with a price target of $172.36, and a &#39;Strong Buy&#39; rating at today&#39;s valuation.</body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Stock: Tremendous Upside Potential</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Stock: Tremendous Upside Potential\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-23 11:52 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497070-alibaba-stock-tremendous-upside-potential>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummaryWith the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen a nice recovery.I believe that despite the possible risks, the stock has tremendous upside given ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497070-alibaba-stock-tremendous-upside-potential\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK1142":"互联网与直销零售","BK1591":"就地过年概念","BK4565":"NFT概念","BK1502":"双十一","BK1517":"云办公","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","BK1608":"元宇宙概念","BK1575":"同股不同权","BK1584":"蚂蚁金服概念","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","PDD":"拼多多","BK1501":"阿里概念股","BK4531":"中概回港概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BABA":"阿里巴巴","NYSE":"纽交所","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4558":"双十一","BK4575":"芯片概念","BK4509":"腾讯概念","BK1588":"回港中概股","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4501":"段永平概念","BK4538":"云计算","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4526":"热门中概股","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","BK4502":"阿里概念","BK1521":"挪威政府全球养老基金持仓","BK1586":"云计算","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497070-alibaba-stock-tremendous-upside-potential","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2221979490","content_text":"SummaryWith the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen a nice recovery.I believe that despite the possible risks, the stock has tremendous upside given the company's financial track record and future earning potential.I initiate coverage on Alibaba using a 10-year EPS forecast model, and give the stock a 'Strong Buy' rating at its current valuation.David Becker/Getty Images NewsAfter the Chinese government promised to stabilize markets and ease crackdowns, Chinese equities saw a huge recovery. Shares of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. ADR (NYSE:NYSE:BABA) rose from the depths of the low 70s to over $110 a share. I believe that the company still has tremendous upside from its current valuation due to its impressive financial track record over the years, and its ability to stay on track in the years to come. Despite an increase of over 50% from its recent low, the company is still undervalued.The crash and the recoveryShares of Alibaba Group sank to a terrifying low of $73.28 a share early last week, after the SEC announced its plans to delist five Chinese companies due to a lack of compliance with auditing requirements. Investors fled from Chinese equities, resulting in a massive plunge in their share prices. Alibaba was no exception, and its stock, which had already taken a beating over the past few weeks, sank to lows that haven't been seen in years. Yet, just when all hope seemed to be lost, the Chinese government stepped in to reassure investors that they would stabilize these turbulent markets, and potentially ease regulations so that Chinese companies can remain listed in overseas markets. The positive news which came mid last week triggered a near-vertical recovery in Chinese equities, whose share prices soared by double digits over the next few days. We now see Alibaba stock trading at over $110 a share, and I believe there's more upside to come.Impressive financialsTo understand how well Alibaba has been doing, let's go over a few financial metrics.Revenue growthAlibaba's revenue growth has remained in the double digits for the past few years. The company earned $182.51 billion HKD in revenue in 2017, and this number has grown to $820.2 billion HKD as of last year's annual report. This represents a net growth in revenue of almost 350% over those 5 years.Alibaba's e-commerce revenue growth (Statista)A quick look at their e-commerce revenue growth in domestic and international markets show that there has been a sustained uptrend in both departments over the past decade, and there is good reason to believe that revenue prospects for the company will remain strong in the years to come.Share buybackAlibaba has announced a massive $25 billion share buyback program, which came shortly after the Chinese government restored investors' faith in Chinese equities. The value of the buyback is almost 10% of the company's current market capitalization, which stands at about $280 billion. This is extremely significant, and represents a substantial growth in stake ownership for the company's shareholders. The fact that the company is financially able to buy back such a large amount of shares is also a good reflection of its ability to generate free cash flows.Earnings per shareAlibaba's diluted EPS has grown from 2.45 in 2017 to 7.82 in 2021, representing an approximate 219% increase over those 5 years. This is a good indication that the company has been greatly profitable over the years. As a result, it is able to distribute more of these profits to its shareholders.Free cash flow growthAlibaba has seen a massive increase in free cash flow, from $72.39 billion HKD in 2017 to $215.66 billion HKD in 2021, representing a near 200% growth over 5 years. This is a good sign that the company is managing its operating expenses and capital expenditures well. In addition, the free cash flow-to-long term debt ratio sits at 1.11 as of 2021, which shows that the company is more than able to pay off its financial obligations. These are very promising signs that the company is in very good financial health, and is at no risk whatsoever of going under.China's growing affluenceAnother important point is that Alibaba thrives in an increasingly affluent market. China's middle class has grown from about 3% of the population in 2000 to over 50% today, and the trend shows no clear signs of pulling back. Projections show that by 2030, most of China's urban households will be in the middle income bracket and above. With an increasingly affluent market to tap into, Alibaba is likely to see a significant and sustained increase in demand for its products. This would hugely benefit the company's financials and help it stay on its impressive trajectory.Potential risksWhile there's a lot to be positive about, there are some undeniable risks that need to be mentioned.Losing market shareWhile Alibaba remains largely dominant in the Chinese market, its market share in the e-commerce industry is starting to fall due to changing consumption habits and a rise in competition. One such competitor is Pinduoduo (NASDAQ:PDD), which has proven to be formidable in the e-commerce business with its innovative methods to appeal to commerce communities. This could present a challenge for Alibaba, and it is not certain whether the company is still able to retain its large market share in the years to come.Regulatory risksWhile the Chinese government has shown signs of regulatory easing, we should never get too comfortable. Regulations concerning Chinese companies are always unpredictable, and the future of Chinese equities still bears a great deal of uncertainty. In addition, the SEC is starting to clamp down harder on foreign companies which are not compliant with any of their auditing requirements. The risks which arise from both sides still exist, and one can never be too careful, especially in today's regulatory climate.Alibaba stock valuationI will be using an EPS forecast model to determine a fair valuation of Alibaba stock. The model will be applied over 10 years, starting from 2021's EPS of 7.82. Before I do this, let me go over some of the metrics I will be using in my calculations.MetricsAssumptions used for EPS forecast model (Prepared by author)Projected annual change in shares outstandingI've projected an average annual decrease of 1% in shares outstanding over the next 10 years. This is a reasonably conservative estimate, considering the magnitude of the share buyback program.Projected annual growth rateI've projected an average annual growth rate of 15%, which seems to be a fairly conservative estimate considering the company's long-term earning potential.Minimum annual rate of returnI've gone for a desired annual return of 12.5%, which beats the returns of a good Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF by a decent margin.Margin of safetyWhile Alibaba is a Chinese company that is generally exposed to more regulatory risk, I do believe that my previous assumptions are conservative enough and a 20% margin of safety is sufficient for this calculation.Projected P/EI'll be assuming a projected P/E of 20, which is, again, a fairly low value compared to the company's P/E over the years. We could very likely see a much higher P/E than this in the future, but once again, let's be conservative. For some reference, Alibaba's current P/E (at the time of writing) is about 28.Price targetEPS Forecast for Alibaba Stock (Prepared by author)Based on our relatively conservative assumptions, we've arrived at a price target of $172.36. This means that if I were to invest in Alibaba at $172.36 a share, I would be getting an average annual return of 12.5% over 10 years. The current price of Alibaba stock sits at just above $110, and this shows that there is tremendous upside based on our current assumptions, which are already on the conservative side.ConclusionWhile Alibaba may face challenges in the future, I do believe that the company is on a great financial trajectory, and has tremendous upside in terms of its valuation. I conclude my analysis with a price target of $172.36, and a 'Strong Buy' rating at today's valuation.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9037301470,"gmtCreate":1648017866856,"gmtModify":1676534293641,"author":{"id":"3578545886341911","authorId":"3578545886341911","name":"Johnlimwt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1adeee2347b67dfd778339494a5fd26","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3578545886341911","authorIdStr":"3578545886341911"},"htmlText":"Good write out on BABA&nbsp;","listText":"Good write out on BABA&nbsp;","text":"Good write out on BABA","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9037301470","repostId":2221979490,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2221979490","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1648007579,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2221979490?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-23 11:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Stock: Tremendous Upside Potential","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2221979490","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryWith the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen","content":"<html><head></head><body>Summary<ul><li>With the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen a nice recovery.</li><li>I believe that despite the possible risks, the stock has tremendous upside given the company&#39;s financial track record and future earning potential.</li><li>I initiate coverage on Alibaba using a 10-year EPS forecast model, and give the stock a &#39;Strong Buy&#39; rating at its current valuation.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c7e5ba4a836568115de5c2d8498356e\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"469\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>David Becker/Getty Images NewsAfter the Chinese government promised to stabilize markets and ease crackdowns, Chinese equities saw a huge recovery. Shares of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. ADR (NYSE:NYSE:BABA) rose from the depths of the low 70s to over $110 a share. I believe that the company still has tremendous upside from its current valuation due to its impressive financial track record over the years, and its ability to stay on track in the years to come. Despite an increase of over 50% from its recent low, the company is still undervalued.The crash and the recoveryShares of Alibaba Group sank to a terrifying low of $73.28 a share early last week, after the SEC announced its plans to delist five Chinese companies due to a lack of compliance with auditing requirements. Investors fled from Chinese equities, resulting in a massive plunge in their share prices. Alibaba was no exception, and its stock, which had already taken a beating over the past few weeks, sank to lows that haven&#39;t been seen in years. Yet, just when all hope seemed to be lost, the Chinese government stepped in to reassure investors that they would stabilize these turbulent markets, and potentially ease regulations so that Chinese companies can remain listed in overseas markets. The positive news which came mid last week triggered a near-vertical recovery in Chinese equities, whose share prices soared by double digits over the next few days. We now see Alibaba stock trading at over $110 a share, and I believe there&#39;s more upside to come.Impressive financialsTo understand how well Alibaba has been doing, let&#39;s go over a few financial metrics.Revenue growthAlibaba&#39;s revenue growth has remained in the double digits for the past few years. The company earned $182.51 billion HKD in revenue in 2017, and this number has grown to $820.2 billion HKD as of last year&#39;s annual report. This represents a net growth in revenue of almost 350% over those 5 years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c02fbb86072d4364834fb5dff4c85880\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"476\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Alibaba&#39;s e-commerce revenue growth (Statista)A quick look at their e-commerce revenue growth in domestic and international markets show that there has been a sustained uptrend in both departments over the past decade, and there is good reason to believe that revenue prospects for the company will remain strong in the years to come.Share buybackAlibaba has announced a massive $25 billion share buyback program, which came shortly after the Chinese government restored investors&#39; faith in Chinese equities. The value of the buyback is almost 10% of the company&#39;s current market capitalization, which stands at about $280 billion. This is extremely significant, and represents a substantial growth in stake ownership for the company&#39;s shareholders. The fact that the company is financially able to buy back such a large amount of shares is also a good reflection of its ability to generate free cash flows.Earnings per shareAlibaba&#39;s diluted EPS has grown from 2.45 in 2017 to 7.82 in 2021, representing an approximate 219% increase over those 5 years. This is a good indication that the company has been greatly profitable over the years. As a result, it is able to distribute more of these profits to its shareholders.Free cash flow growthAlibaba has seen a massive increase in free cash flow, from $72.39 billion HKD in 2017 to $215.66 billion HKD in 2021, representing a near 200% growth over 5 years. This is a good sign that the company is managing its operating expenses and capital expenditures well. In addition, the free cash flow-to-long term debt ratio sits at 1.11 as of 2021, which shows that the company is more than able to pay off its financial obligations. These are very promising signs that the company is in very good financial health, and is at no risk whatsoever of going under.China&#39;s growing affluenceAnother important point is that Alibaba thrives in an increasingly affluent market. China&#39;s middle class has grown from about 3% of the population in 2000 to over 50% today, and the trend shows no clear signs of pulling back. Projections show that by 2030, most of China&#39;s urban households will be in the middle income bracket and above. With an increasingly affluent market to tap into, Alibaba is likely to see a significant and sustained increase in demand for its products. This would hugely benefit the company&#39;s financials and help it stay on its impressive trajectory.Potential risksWhile there&#39;s a lot to be positive about, there are some undeniable risks that need to be mentioned.Losing market shareWhile Alibaba remains largely dominant in the Chinese market, its market share in the e-commerce industry is starting to fall due to changing consumption habits and a rise in competition. One such competitor is Pinduoduo (NASDAQ:PDD), which has proven to be formidable in the e-commerce business with its innovative methods to appeal to commerce communities. This could present a challenge for Alibaba, and it is not certain whether the company is still able to retain its large market share in the years to come.Regulatory risksWhile the Chinese government has shown signs of regulatory easing, we should never get too comfortable. Regulations concerning Chinese companies are always unpredictable, and the future of Chinese equities still bears a great deal of uncertainty. In addition, the SEC is starting to clamp down harder on foreign companies which are not compliant with any of their auditing requirements. The risks which arise from both sides still exist, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> can never be too careful, especially in today&#39;s regulatory climate.Alibaba stock valuationI will be using an EPS forecast model to determine a fair valuation of Alibaba stock. The model will be applied over 10 years, starting from 2021&#39;s EPS of 7.82. Before I do this, let me go over some of the metrics I will be using in my calculations.Metrics<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aee8ef6644c09c16436ffe9b15b5d329\" tg-width=\"350\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Assumptions used for EPS forecast model (Prepared by author)Projected annual change in shares outstandingI&#39;ve projected an average annual decrease of 1% in shares outstanding over the next 10 years. This is a reasonably conservative estimate, considering the magnitude of the share buyback program.Projected annual growth rateI&#39;ve projected an average annual growth rate of 15%, which seems to be a fairly conservative estimate considering the company&#39;s long-term earning potential.Minimum annual rate of returnI&#39;ve gone for a desired annual return of 12.5%, which beats the returns of a good <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSFF\">Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF</a> by a decent margin.Margin of safetyWhile Alibaba is a Chinese company that is generally exposed to more regulatory risk, I do believe that my previous assumptions are conservative enough and a 20% margin of safety is sufficient for this calculation.Projected P/EI&#39;ll be assuming a projected P/E of 20, which is, again, a fairly low value compared to the company&#39;s P/E over the years. We could very likely see a much higher P/E than this in the future, but once again, let&#39;s be conservative. For some reference, Alibaba&#39;s current P/E (at the time of writing) is about 28.Price target<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e60a2da9b185d8fe76a2b6a8e23a6704\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>EPS Forecast for Alibaba Stock (Prepared by author)Based on our relatively conservative assumptions, we&#39;ve arrived at a price target of $172.36. This means that if I were to invest in Alibaba at $172.36 a share, I would be getting an average annual return of 12.5% over 10 years. The current price of Alibaba stock sits at just above $110, and this shows that there is tremendous upside based on our current assumptions, which are already on the conservative side.ConclusionWhile Alibaba may face challenges in the future, I do believe that the company is on a great financial trajectory, and has tremendous upside in terms of its valuation. I conclude my analysis with a price target of $172.36, and a &#39;Strong Buy&#39; rating at today&#39;s valuation.</body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Stock: Tremendous Upside Potential</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Stock: Tremendous Upside Potential\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-23 11:52 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497070-alibaba-stock-tremendous-upside-potential>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummaryWith the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen a nice recovery.I believe that despite the possible risks, the stock has tremendous upside given ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497070-alibaba-stock-tremendous-upside-potential\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK1142":"互联网与直销零售","BK1591":"就地过年概念","BK4565":"NFT概念","BK1502":"双十一","BK1517":"云办公","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","BK1608":"元宇宙概念","BK1575":"同股不同权","BK1584":"蚂蚁金服概念","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","PDD":"拼多多","BK1501":"阿里概念股","BK4531":"中概回港概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BABA":"阿里巴巴","NYSE":"纽交所","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4558":"双十一","BK4575":"芯片概念","BK4509":"腾讯概念","BK1588":"回港中概股","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4501":"段永平概念","BK4538":"云计算","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4526":"热门中概股","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","BK4502":"阿里概念","BK1521":"挪威政府全球养老基金持仓","BK1586":"云计算","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497070-alibaba-stock-tremendous-upside-potential","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2221979490","content_text":"SummaryWith the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen a nice recovery.I believe that despite the possible risks, the stock has tremendous upside given the company's financial track record and future earning potential.I initiate coverage on Alibaba using a 10-year EPS forecast model, and give the stock a 'Strong Buy' rating at its current valuation.David Becker/Getty Images NewsAfter the Chinese government promised to stabilize markets and ease crackdowns, Chinese equities saw a huge recovery. Shares of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. ADR (NYSE:NYSE:BABA) rose from the depths of the low 70s to over $110 a share. I believe that the company still has tremendous upside from its current valuation due to its impressive financial track record over the years, and its ability to stay on track in the years to come. Despite an increase of over 50% from its recent low, the company is still undervalued.The crash and the recoveryShares of Alibaba Group sank to a terrifying low of $73.28 a share early last week, after the SEC announced its plans to delist five Chinese companies due to a lack of compliance with auditing requirements. Investors fled from Chinese equities, resulting in a massive plunge in their share prices. Alibaba was no exception, and its stock, which had already taken a beating over the past few weeks, sank to lows that haven't been seen in years. Yet, just when all hope seemed to be lost, the Chinese government stepped in to reassure investors that they would stabilize these turbulent markets, and potentially ease regulations so that Chinese companies can remain listed in overseas markets. The positive news which came mid last week triggered a near-vertical recovery in Chinese equities, whose share prices soared by double digits over the next few days. We now see Alibaba stock trading at over $110 a share, and I believe there's more upside to come.Impressive financialsTo understand how well Alibaba has been doing, let's go over a few financial metrics.Revenue growthAlibaba's revenue growth has remained in the double digits for the past few years. The company earned $182.51 billion HKD in revenue in 2017, and this number has grown to $820.2 billion HKD as of last year's annual report. This represents a net growth in revenue of almost 350% over those 5 years.Alibaba's e-commerce revenue growth (Statista)A quick look at their e-commerce revenue growth in domestic and international markets show that there has been a sustained uptrend in both departments over the past decade, and there is good reason to believe that revenue prospects for the company will remain strong in the years to come.Share buybackAlibaba has announced a massive $25 billion share buyback program, which came shortly after the Chinese government restored investors' faith in Chinese equities. The value of the buyback is almost 10% of the company's current market capitalization, which stands at about $280 billion. This is extremely significant, and represents a substantial growth in stake ownership for the company's shareholders. The fact that the company is financially able to buy back such a large amount of shares is also a good reflection of its ability to generate free cash flows.Earnings per shareAlibaba's diluted EPS has grown from 2.45 in 2017 to 7.82 in 2021, representing an approximate 219% increase over those 5 years. This is a good indication that the company has been greatly profitable over the years. As a result, it is able to distribute more of these profits to its shareholders.Free cash flow growthAlibaba has seen a massive increase in free cash flow, from $72.39 billion HKD in 2017 to $215.66 billion HKD in 2021, representing a near 200% growth over 5 years. This is a good sign that the company is managing its operating expenses and capital expenditures well. In addition, the free cash flow-to-long term debt ratio sits at 1.11 as of 2021, which shows that the company is more than able to pay off its financial obligations. These are very promising signs that the company is in very good financial health, and is at no risk whatsoever of going under.China's growing affluenceAnother important point is that Alibaba thrives in an increasingly affluent market. China's middle class has grown from about 3% of the population in 2000 to over 50% today, and the trend shows no clear signs of pulling back. Projections show that by 2030, most of China's urban households will be in the middle income bracket and above. With an increasingly affluent market to tap into, Alibaba is likely to see a significant and sustained increase in demand for its products. This would hugely benefit the company's financials and help it stay on its impressive trajectory.Potential risksWhile there's a lot to be positive about, there are some undeniable risks that need to be mentioned.Losing market shareWhile Alibaba remains largely dominant in the Chinese market, its market share in the e-commerce industry is starting to fall due to changing consumption habits and a rise in competition. One such competitor is Pinduoduo (NASDAQ:PDD), which has proven to be formidable in the e-commerce business with its innovative methods to appeal to commerce communities. This could present a challenge for Alibaba, and it is not certain whether the company is still able to retain its large market share in the years to come.Regulatory risksWhile the Chinese government has shown signs of regulatory easing, we should never get too comfortable. Regulations concerning Chinese companies are always unpredictable, and the future of Chinese equities still bears a great deal of uncertainty. In addition, the SEC is starting to clamp down harder on foreign companies which are not compliant with any of their auditing requirements. The risks which arise from both sides still exist, and one can never be too careful, especially in today's regulatory climate.Alibaba stock valuationI will be using an EPS forecast model to determine a fair valuation of Alibaba stock. The model will be applied over 10 years, starting from 2021's EPS of 7.82. Before I do this, let me go over some of the metrics I will be using in my calculations.MetricsAssumptions used for EPS forecast model (Prepared by author)Projected annual change in shares outstandingI've projected an average annual decrease of 1% in shares outstanding over the next 10 years. This is a reasonably conservative estimate, considering the magnitude of the share buyback program.Projected annual growth rateI've projected an average annual growth rate of 15%, which seems to be a fairly conservative estimate considering the company's long-term earning potential.Minimum annual rate of returnI've gone for a desired annual return of 12.5%, which beats the returns of a good Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF by a decent margin.Margin of safetyWhile Alibaba is a Chinese company that is generally exposed to more regulatory risk, I do believe that my previous assumptions are conservative enough and a 20% margin of safety is sufficient for this calculation.Projected P/EI'll be assuming a projected P/E of 20, which is, again, a fairly low value compared to the company's P/E over the years. We could very likely see a much higher P/E than this in the future, but once again, let's be conservative. For some reference, Alibaba's current P/E (at the time of writing) is about 28.Price targetEPS Forecast for Alibaba Stock (Prepared by author)Based on our relatively conservative assumptions, we've arrived at a price target of $172.36. This means that if I were to invest in Alibaba at $172.36 a share, I would be getting an average annual return of 12.5% over 10 years. The current price of Alibaba stock sits at just above $110, and this shows that there is tremendous upside based on our current assumptions, which are already on the conservative side.ConclusionWhile Alibaba may face challenges in the future, I do believe that the company is on a great financial trajectory, and has tremendous upside in terms of its valuation. I conclude my analysis with a price target of $172.36, and a 'Strong Buy' rating at today's valuation.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9037300005,"gmtCreate":1648017210033,"gmtModify":1676534293547,"author":{"id":"4087993342728370","authorId":"4087993342728370","name":"kenlim45","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/041f7cb113fb34ffb16e6418486502fe","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4087993342728370","authorIdStr":"4087993342728370"},"htmlText":"👍&nbsp;","listText":"👍&nbsp;","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9037300005","repostId":2221979490,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2221979490","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1648007579,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2221979490?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-23 11:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Stock: Tremendous Upside Potential","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2221979490","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryWith the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen","content":"<html><head></head><body>Summary<ul><li>With the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen a nice recovery.</li><li>I believe that despite the possible risks, the stock has tremendous upside given the company&#39;s financial track record and future earning potential.</li><li>I initiate coverage on Alibaba using a 10-year EPS forecast model, and give the stock a &#39;Strong Buy&#39; rating at its current valuation.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c7e5ba4a836568115de5c2d8498356e\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"469\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>David Becker/Getty Images NewsAfter the Chinese government promised to stabilize markets and ease crackdowns, Chinese equities saw a huge recovery. Shares of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. ADR (NYSE:NYSE:BABA) rose from the depths of the low 70s to over $110 a share. I believe that the company still has tremendous upside from its current valuation due to its impressive financial track record over the years, and its ability to stay on track in the years to come. Despite an increase of over 50% from its recent low, the company is still undervalued.The crash and the recoveryShares of Alibaba Group sank to a terrifying low of $73.28 a share early last week, after the SEC announced its plans to delist five Chinese companies due to a lack of compliance with auditing requirements. Investors fled from Chinese equities, resulting in a massive plunge in their share prices. Alibaba was no exception, and its stock, which had already taken a beating over the past few weeks, sank to lows that haven&#39;t been seen in years. Yet, just when all hope seemed to be lost, the Chinese government stepped in to reassure investors that they would stabilize these turbulent markets, and potentially ease regulations so that Chinese companies can remain listed in overseas markets. The positive news which came mid last week triggered a near-vertical recovery in Chinese equities, whose share prices soared by double digits over the next few days. We now see Alibaba stock trading at over $110 a share, and I believe there&#39;s more upside to come.Impressive financialsTo understand how well Alibaba has been doing, let&#39;s go over a few financial metrics.Revenue growthAlibaba&#39;s revenue growth has remained in the double digits for the past few years. The company earned $182.51 billion HKD in revenue in 2017, and this number has grown to $820.2 billion HKD as of last year&#39;s annual report. This represents a net growth in revenue of almost 350% over those 5 years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c02fbb86072d4364834fb5dff4c85880\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"476\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Alibaba&#39;s e-commerce revenue growth (Statista)A quick look at their e-commerce revenue growth in domestic and international markets show that there has been a sustained uptrend in both departments over the past decade, and there is good reason to believe that revenue prospects for the company will remain strong in the years to come.Share buybackAlibaba has announced a massive $25 billion share buyback program, which came shortly after the Chinese government restored investors&#39; faith in Chinese equities. The value of the buyback is almost 10% of the company&#39;s current market capitalization, which stands at about $280 billion. This is extremely significant, and represents a substantial growth in stake ownership for the company&#39;s shareholders. The fact that the company is financially able to buy back such a large amount of shares is also a good reflection of its ability to generate free cash flows.Earnings per shareAlibaba&#39;s diluted EPS has grown from 2.45 in 2017 to 7.82 in 2021, representing an approximate 219% increase over those 5 years. This is a good indication that the company has been greatly profitable over the years. As a result, it is able to distribute more of these profits to its shareholders.Free cash flow growthAlibaba has seen a massive increase in free cash flow, from $72.39 billion HKD in 2017 to $215.66 billion HKD in 2021, representing a near 200% growth over 5 years. This is a good sign that the company is managing its operating expenses and capital expenditures well. In addition, the free cash flow-to-long term debt ratio sits at 1.11 as of 2021, which shows that the company is more than able to pay off its financial obligations. These are very promising signs that the company is in very good financial health, and is at no risk whatsoever of going under.China&#39;s growing affluenceAnother important point is that Alibaba thrives in an increasingly affluent market. China&#39;s middle class has grown from about 3% of the population in 2000 to over 50% today, and the trend shows no clear signs of pulling back. Projections show that by 2030, most of China&#39;s urban households will be in the middle income bracket and above. With an increasingly affluent market to tap into, Alibaba is likely to see a significant and sustained increase in demand for its products. This would hugely benefit the company&#39;s financials and help it stay on its impressive trajectory.Potential risksWhile there&#39;s a lot to be positive about, there are some undeniable risks that need to be mentioned.Losing market shareWhile Alibaba remains largely dominant in the Chinese market, its market share in the e-commerce industry is starting to fall due to changing consumption habits and a rise in competition. One such competitor is Pinduoduo (NASDAQ:PDD), which has proven to be formidable in the e-commerce business with its innovative methods to appeal to commerce communities. This could present a challenge for Alibaba, and it is not certain whether the company is still able to retain its large market share in the years to come.Regulatory risksWhile the Chinese government has shown signs of regulatory easing, we should never get too comfortable. Regulations concerning Chinese companies are always unpredictable, and the future of Chinese equities still bears a great deal of uncertainty. In addition, the SEC is starting to clamp down harder on foreign companies which are not compliant with any of their auditing requirements. The risks which arise from both sides still exist, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> can never be too careful, especially in today&#39;s regulatory climate.Alibaba stock valuationI will be using an EPS forecast model to determine a fair valuation of Alibaba stock. The model will be applied over 10 years, starting from 2021&#39;s EPS of 7.82. Before I do this, let me go over some of the metrics I will be using in my calculations.Metrics<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aee8ef6644c09c16436ffe9b15b5d329\" tg-width=\"350\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Assumptions used for EPS forecast model (Prepared by author)Projected annual change in shares outstandingI&#39;ve projected an average annual decrease of 1% in shares outstanding over the next 10 years. This is a reasonably conservative estimate, considering the magnitude of the share buyback program.Projected annual growth rateI&#39;ve projected an average annual growth rate of 15%, which seems to be a fairly conservative estimate considering the company&#39;s long-term earning potential.Minimum annual rate of returnI&#39;ve gone for a desired annual return of 12.5%, which beats the returns of a good <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSFF\">Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF</a> by a decent margin.Margin of safetyWhile Alibaba is a Chinese company that is generally exposed to more regulatory risk, I do believe that my previous assumptions are conservative enough and a 20% margin of safety is sufficient for this calculation.Projected P/EI&#39;ll be assuming a projected P/E of 20, which is, again, a fairly low value compared to the company&#39;s P/E over the years. We could very likely see a much higher P/E than this in the future, but once again, let&#39;s be conservative. For some reference, Alibaba&#39;s current P/E (at the time of writing) is about 28.Price target<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e60a2da9b185d8fe76a2b6a8e23a6704\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>EPS Forecast for Alibaba Stock (Prepared by author)Based on our relatively conservative assumptions, we&#39;ve arrived at a price target of $172.36. This means that if I were to invest in Alibaba at $172.36 a share, I would be getting an average annual return of 12.5% over 10 years. The current price of Alibaba stock sits at just above $110, and this shows that there is tremendous upside based on our current assumptions, which are already on the conservative side.ConclusionWhile Alibaba may face challenges in the future, I do believe that the company is on a great financial trajectory, and has tremendous upside in terms of its valuation. I conclude my analysis with a price target of $172.36, and a &#39;Strong Buy&#39; rating at today&#39;s valuation.</body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Stock: Tremendous Upside Potential</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Stock: Tremendous Upside Potential\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-23 11:52 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497070-alibaba-stock-tremendous-upside-potential>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummaryWith the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen a nice recovery.I believe that despite the possible risks, the stock has tremendous upside given ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497070-alibaba-stock-tremendous-upside-potential\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK1142":"互联网与直销零售","BK1591":"就地过年概念","BK4565":"NFT概念","BK1502":"双十一","BK1517":"云办公","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","BK1608":"元宇宙概念","BK1575":"同股不同权","BK1584":"蚂蚁金服概念","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","PDD":"拼多多","BK1501":"阿里概念股","BK4531":"中概回港概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BABA":"阿里巴巴","NYSE":"纽交所","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4558":"双十一","BK4575":"芯片概念","BK4509":"腾讯概念","BK1588":"回港中概股","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4501":"段永平概念","BK4538":"云计算","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4526":"热门中概股","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","BK4502":"阿里概念","BK1521":"挪威政府全球养老基金持仓","BK1586":"云计算","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497070-alibaba-stock-tremendous-upside-potential","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2221979490","content_text":"SummaryWith the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen a nice recovery.I believe that despite the possible risks, the stock has tremendous upside given the company's financial track record and future earning potential.I initiate coverage on Alibaba using a 10-year EPS forecast model, and give the stock a 'Strong Buy' rating at its current valuation.David Becker/Getty Images NewsAfter the Chinese government promised to stabilize markets and ease crackdowns, Chinese equities saw a huge recovery. Shares of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. ADR (NYSE:NYSE:BABA) rose from the depths of the low 70s to over $110 a share. I believe that the company still has tremendous upside from its current valuation due to its impressive financial track record over the years, and its ability to stay on track in the years to come. Despite an increase of over 50% from its recent low, the company is still undervalued.The crash and the recoveryShares of Alibaba Group sank to a terrifying low of $73.28 a share early last week, after the SEC announced its plans to delist five Chinese companies due to a lack of compliance with auditing requirements. Investors fled from Chinese equities, resulting in a massive plunge in their share prices. Alibaba was no exception, and its stock, which had already taken a beating over the past few weeks, sank to lows that haven't been seen in years. Yet, just when all hope seemed to be lost, the Chinese government stepped in to reassure investors that they would stabilize these turbulent markets, and potentially ease regulations so that Chinese companies can remain listed in overseas markets. The positive news which came mid last week triggered a near-vertical recovery in Chinese equities, whose share prices soared by double digits over the next few days. We now see Alibaba stock trading at over $110 a share, and I believe there's more upside to come.Impressive financialsTo understand how well Alibaba has been doing, let's go over a few financial metrics.Revenue growthAlibaba's revenue growth has remained in the double digits for the past few years. The company earned $182.51 billion HKD in revenue in 2017, and this number has grown to $820.2 billion HKD as of last year's annual report. This represents a net growth in revenue of almost 350% over those 5 years.Alibaba's e-commerce revenue growth (Statista)A quick look at their e-commerce revenue growth in domestic and international markets show that there has been a sustained uptrend in both departments over the past decade, and there is good reason to believe that revenue prospects for the company will remain strong in the years to come.Share buybackAlibaba has announced a massive $25 billion share buyback program, which came shortly after the Chinese government restored investors' faith in Chinese equities. The value of the buyback is almost 10% of the company's current market capitalization, which stands at about $280 billion. This is extremely significant, and represents a substantial growth in stake ownership for the company's shareholders. The fact that the company is financially able to buy back such a large amount of shares is also a good reflection of its ability to generate free cash flows.Earnings per shareAlibaba's diluted EPS has grown from 2.45 in 2017 to 7.82 in 2021, representing an approximate 219% increase over those 5 years. This is a good indication that the company has been greatly profitable over the years. As a result, it is able to distribute more of these profits to its shareholders.Free cash flow growthAlibaba has seen a massive increase in free cash flow, from $72.39 billion HKD in 2017 to $215.66 billion HKD in 2021, representing a near 200% growth over 5 years. This is a good sign that the company is managing its operating expenses and capital expenditures well. In addition, the free cash flow-to-long term debt ratio sits at 1.11 as of 2021, which shows that the company is more than able to pay off its financial obligations. These are very promising signs that the company is in very good financial health, and is at no risk whatsoever of going under.China's growing affluenceAnother important point is that Alibaba thrives in an increasingly affluent market. China's middle class has grown from about 3% of the population in 2000 to over 50% today, and the trend shows no clear signs of pulling back. Projections show that by 2030, most of China's urban households will be in the middle income bracket and above. With an increasingly affluent market to tap into, Alibaba is likely to see a significant and sustained increase in demand for its products. This would hugely benefit the company's financials and help it stay on its impressive trajectory.Potential risksWhile there's a lot to be positive about, there are some undeniable risks that need to be mentioned.Losing market shareWhile Alibaba remains largely dominant in the Chinese market, its market share in the e-commerce industry is starting to fall due to changing consumption habits and a rise in competition. One such competitor is Pinduoduo (NASDAQ:PDD), which has proven to be formidable in the e-commerce business with its innovative methods to appeal to commerce communities. This could present a challenge for Alibaba, and it is not certain whether the company is still able to retain its large market share in the years to come.Regulatory risksWhile the Chinese government has shown signs of regulatory easing, we should never get too comfortable. Regulations concerning Chinese companies are always unpredictable, and the future of Chinese equities still bears a great deal of uncertainty. In addition, the SEC is starting to clamp down harder on foreign companies which are not compliant with any of their auditing requirements. The risks which arise from both sides still exist, and one can never be too careful, especially in today's regulatory climate.Alibaba stock valuationI will be using an EPS forecast model to determine a fair valuation of Alibaba stock. The model will be applied over 10 years, starting from 2021's EPS of 7.82. Before I do this, let me go over some of the metrics I will be using in my calculations.MetricsAssumptions used for EPS forecast model (Prepared by author)Projected annual change in shares outstandingI've projected an average annual decrease of 1% in shares outstanding over the next 10 years. This is a reasonably conservative estimate, considering the magnitude of the share buyback program.Projected annual growth rateI've projected an average annual growth rate of 15%, which seems to be a fairly conservative estimate considering the company's long-term earning potential.Minimum annual rate of returnI've gone for a desired annual return of 12.5%, which beats the returns of a good Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF by a decent margin.Margin of safetyWhile Alibaba is a Chinese company that is generally exposed to more regulatory risk, I do believe that my previous assumptions are conservative enough and a 20% margin of safety is sufficient for this calculation.Projected P/EI'll be assuming a projected P/E of 20, which is, again, a fairly low value compared to the company's P/E over the years. We could very likely see a much higher P/E than this in the future, but once again, let's be conservative. For some reference, Alibaba's current P/E (at the time of writing) is about 28.Price targetEPS Forecast for Alibaba Stock (Prepared by author)Based on our relatively conservative assumptions, we've arrived at a price target of $172.36. This means that if I were to invest in Alibaba at $172.36 a share, I would be getting an average annual return of 12.5% over 10 years. The current price of Alibaba stock sits at just above $110, and this shows that there is tremendous upside based on our current assumptions, which are already on the conservative side.ConclusionWhile Alibaba may face challenges in the future, I do believe that the company is on a great financial trajectory, and has tremendous upside in terms of its valuation. I conclude my analysis with a price target of $172.36, and a 'Strong Buy' rating at today's valuation.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9037944862,"gmtCreate":1648014407028,"gmtModify":1676534293269,"author":{"id":"3573639758582771","authorId":"3573639758582771","name":"pal22","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3573639758582771","authorIdStr":"3573639758582771"},"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9037944862","repostId":2221979490,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2221979490","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1648007579,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2221979490?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-23 11:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Stock: Tremendous Upside Potential","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2221979490","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryWith the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen","content":"<html><head></head><body>Summary<ul><li>With the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen a nice recovery.</li><li>I believe that despite the possible risks, the stock has tremendous upside given the company&#39;s financial track record and future earning potential.</li><li>I initiate coverage on Alibaba using a 10-year EPS forecast model, and give the stock a &#39;Strong Buy&#39; rating at its current valuation.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c7e5ba4a836568115de5c2d8498356e\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"469\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>David Becker/Getty Images NewsAfter the Chinese government promised to stabilize markets and ease crackdowns, Chinese equities saw a huge recovery. Shares of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. ADR (NYSE:NYSE:BABA) rose from the depths of the low 70s to over $110 a share. I believe that the company still has tremendous upside from its current valuation due to its impressive financial track record over the years, and its ability to stay on track in the years to come. Despite an increase of over 50% from its recent low, the company is still undervalued.The crash and the recoveryShares of Alibaba Group sank to a terrifying low of $73.28 a share early last week, after the SEC announced its plans to delist five Chinese companies due to a lack of compliance with auditing requirements. Investors fled from Chinese equities, resulting in a massive plunge in their share prices. Alibaba was no exception, and its stock, which had already taken a beating over the past few weeks, sank to lows that haven&#39;t been seen in years. Yet, just when all hope seemed to be lost, the Chinese government stepped in to reassure investors that they would stabilize these turbulent markets, and potentially ease regulations so that Chinese companies can remain listed in overseas markets. The positive news which came mid last week triggered a near-vertical recovery in Chinese equities, whose share prices soared by double digits over the next few days. We now see Alibaba stock trading at over $110 a share, and I believe there&#39;s more upside to come.Impressive financialsTo understand how well Alibaba has been doing, let&#39;s go over a few financial metrics.Revenue growthAlibaba&#39;s revenue growth has remained in the double digits for the past few years. The company earned $182.51 billion HKD in revenue in 2017, and this number has grown to $820.2 billion HKD as of last year&#39;s annual report. This represents a net growth in revenue of almost 350% over those 5 years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c02fbb86072d4364834fb5dff4c85880\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"476\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Alibaba&#39;s e-commerce revenue growth (Statista)A quick look at their e-commerce revenue growth in domestic and international markets show that there has been a sustained uptrend in both departments over the past decade, and there is good reason to believe that revenue prospects for the company will remain strong in the years to come.Share buybackAlibaba has announced a massive $25 billion share buyback program, which came shortly after the Chinese government restored investors&#39; faith in Chinese equities. The value of the buyback is almost 10% of the company&#39;s current market capitalization, which stands at about $280 billion. This is extremely significant, and represents a substantial growth in stake ownership for the company&#39;s shareholders. The fact that the company is financially able to buy back such a large amount of shares is also a good reflection of its ability to generate free cash flows.Earnings per shareAlibaba&#39;s diluted EPS has grown from 2.45 in 2017 to 7.82 in 2021, representing an approximate 219% increase over those 5 years. This is a good indication that the company has been greatly profitable over the years. As a result, it is able to distribute more of these profits to its shareholders.Free cash flow growthAlibaba has seen a massive increase in free cash flow, from $72.39 billion HKD in 2017 to $215.66 billion HKD in 2021, representing a near 200% growth over 5 years. This is a good sign that the company is managing its operating expenses and capital expenditures well. In addition, the free cash flow-to-long term debt ratio sits at 1.11 as of 2021, which shows that the company is more than able to pay off its financial obligations. These are very promising signs that the company is in very good financial health, and is at no risk whatsoever of going under.China&#39;s growing affluenceAnother important point is that Alibaba thrives in an increasingly affluent market. China&#39;s middle class has grown from about 3% of the population in 2000 to over 50% today, and the trend shows no clear signs of pulling back. Projections show that by 2030, most of China&#39;s urban households will be in the middle income bracket and above. With an increasingly affluent market to tap into, Alibaba is likely to see a significant and sustained increase in demand for its products. This would hugely benefit the company&#39;s financials and help it stay on its impressive trajectory.Potential risksWhile there&#39;s a lot to be positive about, there are some undeniable risks that need to be mentioned.Losing market shareWhile Alibaba remains largely dominant in the Chinese market, its market share in the e-commerce industry is starting to fall due to changing consumption habits and a rise in competition. One such competitor is Pinduoduo (NASDAQ:PDD), which has proven to be formidable in the e-commerce business with its innovative methods to appeal to commerce communities. This could present a challenge for Alibaba, and it is not certain whether the company is still able to retain its large market share in the years to come.Regulatory risksWhile the Chinese government has shown signs of regulatory easing, we should never get too comfortable. Regulations concerning Chinese companies are always unpredictable, and the future of Chinese equities still bears a great deal of uncertainty. In addition, the SEC is starting to clamp down harder on foreign companies which are not compliant with any of their auditing requirements. The risks which arise from both sides still exist, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> can never be too careful, especially in today&#39;s regulatory climate.Alibaba stock valuationI will be using an EPS forecast model to determine a fair valuation of Alibaba stock. The model will be applied over 10 years, starting from 2021&#39;s EPS of 7.82. Before I do this, let me go over some of the metrics I will be using in my calculations.Metrics<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aee8ef6644c09c16436ffe9b15b5d329\" tg-width=\"350\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Assumptions used for EPS forecast model (Prepared by author)Projected annual change in shares outstandingI&#39;ve projected an average annual decrease of 1% in shares outstanding over the next 10 years. This is a reasonably conservative estimate, considering the magnitude of the share buyback program.Projected annual growth rateI&#39;ve projected an average annual growth rate of 15%, which seems to be a fairly conservative estimate considering the company&#39;s long-term earning potential.Minimum annual rate of returnI&#39;ve gone for a desired annual return of 12.5%, which beats the returns of a good <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSFF\">Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF</a> by a decent margin.Margin of safetyWhile Alibaba is a Chinese company that is generally exposed to more regulatory risk, I do believe that my previous assumptions are conservative enough and a 20% margin of safety is sufficient for this calculation.Projected P/EI&#39;ll be assuming a projected P/E of 20, which is, again, a fairly low value compared to the company&#39;s P/E over the years. We could very likely see a much higher P/E than this in the future, but once again, let&#39;s be conservative. For some reference, Alibaba&#39;s current P/E (at the time of writing) is about 28.Price target<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e60a2da9b185d8fe76a2b6a8e23a6704\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>EPS Forecast for Alibaba Stock (Prepared by author)Based on our relatively conservative assumptions, we&#39;ve arrived at a price target of $172.36. This means that if I were to invest in Alibaba at $172.36 a share, I would be getting an average annual return of 12.5% over 10 years. The current price of Alibaba stock sits at just above $110, and this shows that there is tremendous upside based on our current assumptions, which are already on the conservative side.ConclusionWhile Alibaba may face challenges in the future, I do believe that the company is on a great financial trajectory, and has tremendous upside in terms of its valuation. I conclude my analysis with a price target of $172.36, and a &#39;Strong Buy&#39; rating at today&#39;s valuation.</body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Stock: Tremendous Upside Potential</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Stock: Tremendous Upside Potential\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-23 11:52 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497070-alibaba-stock-tremendous-upside-potential>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummaryWith the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen a nice recovery.I believe that despite the possible risks, the stock has tremendous upside given ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497070-alibaba-stock-tremendous-upside-potential\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK1142":"互联网与直销零售","BK1591":"就地过年概念","BK4565":"NFT概念","BK1502":"双十一","BK1517":"云办公","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","BK1608":"元宇宙概念","BK1575":"同股不同权","BK1584":"蚂蚁金服概念","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","PDD":"拼多多","BK1501":"阿里概念股","BK4531":"中概回港概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BABA":"阿里巴巴","NYSE":"纽交所","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4558":"双十一","BK4575":"芯片概念","BK4509":"腾讯概念","BK1588":"回港中概股","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4501":"段永平概念","BK4538":"云计算","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4526":"热门中概股","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","BK4502":"阿里概念","BK1521":"挪威政府全球养老基金持仓","BK1586":"云计算","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497070-alibaba-stock-tremendous-upside-potential","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2221979490","content_text":"SummaryWith the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen a nice recovery.I believe that despite the possible risks, the stock has tremendous upside given the company's financial track record and future earning potential.I initiate coverage on Alibaba using a 10-year EPS forecast model, and give the stock a 'Strong Buy' rating at its current valuation.David Becker/Getty Images NewsAfter the Chinese government promised to stabilize markets and ease crackdowns, Chinese equities saw a huge recovery. Shares of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. ADR (NYSE:NYSE:BABA) rose from the depths of the low 70s to over $110 a share. I believe that the company still has tremendous upside from its current valuation due to its impressive financial track record over the years, and its ability to stay on track in the years to come. Despite an increase of over 50% from its recent low, the company is still undervalued.The crash and the recoveryShares of Alibaba Group sank to a terrifying low of $73.28 a share early last week, after the SEC announced its plans to delist five Chinese companies due to a lack of compliance with auditing requirements. Investors fled from Chinese equities, resulting in a massive plunge in their share prices. Alibaba was no exception, and its stock, which had already taken a beating over the past few weeks, sank to lows that haven't been seen in years. Yet, just when all hope seemed to be lost, the Chinese government stepped in to reassure investors that they would stabilize these turbulent markets, and potentially ease regulations so that Chinese companies can remain listed in overseas markets. The positive news which came mid last week triggered a near-vertical recovery in Chinese equities, whose share prices soared by double digits over the next few days. We now see Alibaba stock trading at over $110 a share, and I believe there's more upside to come.Impressive financialsTo understand how well Alibaba has been doing, let's go over a few financial metrics.Revenue growthAlibaba's revenue growth has remained in the double digits for the past few years. The company earned $182.51 billion HKD in revenue in 2017, and this number has grown to $820.2 billion HKD as of last year's annual report. This represents a net growth in revenue of almost 350% over those 5 years.Alibaba's e-commerce revenue growth (Statista)A quick look at their e-commerce revenue growth in domestic and international markets show that there has been a sustained uptrend in both departments over the past decade, and there is good reason to believe that revenue prospects for the company will remain strong in the years to come.Share buybackAlibaba has announced a massive $25 billion share buyback program, which came shortly after the Chinese government restored investors' faith in Chinese equities. The value of the buyback is almost 10% of the company's current market capitalization, which stands at about $280 billion. This is extremely significant, and represents a substantial growth in stake ownership for the company's shareholders. The fact that the company is financially able to buy back such a large amount of shares is also a good reflection of its ability to generate free cash flows.Earnings per shareAlibaba's diluted EPS has grown from 2.45 in 2017 to 7.82 in 2021, representing an approximate 219% increase over those 5 years. This is a good indication that the company has been greatly profitable over the years. As a result, it is able to distribute more of these profits to its shareholders.Free cash flow growthAlibaba has seen a massive increase in free cash flow, from $72.39 billion HKD in 2017 to $215.66 billion HKD in 2021, representing a near 200% growth over 5 years. This is a good sign that the company is managing its operating expenses and capital expenditures well. In addition, the free cash flow-to-long term debt ratio sits at 1.11 as of 2021, which shows that the company is more than able to pay off its financial obligations. These are very promising signs that the company is in very good financial health, and is at no risk whatsoever of going under.China's growing affluenceAnother important point is that Alibaba thrives in an increasingly affluent market. China's middle class has grown from about 3% of the population in 2000 to over 50% today, and the trend shows no clear signs of pulling back. Projections show that by 2030, most of China's urban households will be in the middle income bracket and above. With an increasingly affluent market to tap into, Alibaba is likely to see a significant and sustained increase in demand for its products. This would hugely benefit the company's financials and help it stay on its impressive trajectory.Potential risksWhile there's a lot to be positive about, there are some undeniable risks that need to be mentioned.Losing market shareWhile Alibaba remains largely dominant in the Chinese market, its market share in the e-commerce industry is starting to fall due to changing consumption habits and a rise in competition. One such competitor is Pinduoduo (NASDAQ:PDD), which has proven to be formidable in the e-commerce business with its innovative methods to appeal to commerce communities. This could present a challenge for Alibaba, and it is not certain whether the company is still able to retain its large market share in the years to come.Regulatory risksWhile the Chinese government has shown signs of regulatory easing, we should never get too comfortable. Regulations concerning Chinese companies are always unpredictable, and the future of Chinese equities still bears a great deal of uncertainty. In addition, the SEC is starting to clamp down harder on foreign companies which are not compliant with any of their auditing requirements. The risks which arise from both sides still exist, and one can never be too careful, especially in today's regulatory climate.Alibaba stock valuationI will be using an EPS forecast model to determine a fair valuation of Alibaba stock. The model will be applied over 10 years, starting from 2021's EPS of 7.82. Before I do this, let me go over some of the metrics I will be using in my calculations.MetricsAssumptions used for EPS forecast model (Prepared by author)Projected annual change in shares outstandingI've projected an average annual decrease of 1% in shares outstanding over the next 10 years. This is a reasonably conservative estimate, considering the magnitude of the share buyback program.Projected annual growth rateI've projected an average annual growth rate of 15%, which seems to be a fairly conservative estimate considering the company's long-term earning potential.Minimum annual rate of returnI've gone for a desired annual return of 12.5%, which beats the returns of a good Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF by a decent margin.Margin of safetyWhile Alibaba is a Chinese company that is generally exposed to more regulatory risk, I do believe that my previous assumptions are conservative enough and a 20% margin of safety is sufficient for this calculation.Projected P/EI'll be assuming a projected P/E of 20, which is, again, a fairly low value compared to the company's P/E over the years. We could very likely see a much higher P/E than this in the future, but once again, let's be conservative. For some reference, Alibaba's current P/E (at the time of writing) is about 28.Price targetEPS Forecast for Alibaba Stock (Prepared by author)Based on our relatively conservative assumptions, we've arrived at a price target of $172.36. This means that if I were to invest in Alibaba at $172.36 a share, I would be getting an average annual return of 12.5% over 10 years. The current price of Alibaba stock sits at just above $110, and this shows that there is tremendous upside based on our current assumptions, which are already on the conservative side.ConclusionWhile Alibaba may face challenges in the future, I do believe that the company is on a great financial trajectory, and has tremendous upside in terms of its valuation. I conclude my analysis with a price target of $172.36, and a 'Strong Buy' rating at today's valuation.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9037944102,"gmtCreate":1648014387819,"gmtModify":1676534293261,"author":{"id":"3573639758582771","authorId":"3573639758582771","name":"pal22","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3573639758582771","authorIdStr":"3573639758582771"},"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9037944102","repostId":2221979490,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2221979490","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1648007579,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2221979490?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-23 11:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Stock: Tremendous Upside Potential","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2221979490","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryWith the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen","content":"<html><head></head><body>Summary<ul><li>With the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen a nice recovery.</li><li>I believe that despite the possible risks, the stock has tremendous upside given the company&#39;s financial track record and future earning potential.</li><li>I initiate coverage on Alibaba using a 10-year EPS forecast model, and give the stock a &#39;Strong Buy&#39; rating at its current valuation.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c7e5ba4a836568115de5c2d8498356e\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"469\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>David Becker/Getty Images NewsAfter the Chinese government promised to stabilize markets and ease crackdowns, Chinese equities saw a huge recovery. Shares of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. ADR (NYSE:NYSE:BABA) rose from the depths of the low 70s to over $110 a share. I believe that the company still has tremendous upside from its current valuation due to its impressive financial track record over the years, and its ability to stay on track in the years to come. Despite an increase of over 50% from its recent low, the company is still undervalued.The crash and the recoveryShares of Alibaba Group sank to a terrifying low of $73.28 a share early last week, after the SEC announced its plans to delist five Chinese companies due to a lack of compliance with auditing requirements. Investors fled from Chinese equities, resulting in a massive plunge in their share prices. Alibaba was no exception, and its stock, which had already taken a beating over the past few weeks, sank to lows that haven&#39;t been seen in years. Yet, just when all hope seemed to be lost, the Chinese government stepped in to reassure investors that they would stabilize these turbulent markets, and potentially ease regulations so that Chinese companies can remain listed in overseas markets. The positive news which came mid last week triggered a near-vertical recovery in Chinese equities, whose share prices soared by double digits over the next few days. We now see Alibaba stock trading at over $110 a share, and I believe there&#39;s more upside to come.Impressive financialsTo understand how well Alibaba has been doing, let&#39;s go over a few financial metrics.Revenue growthAlibaba&#39;s revenue growth has remained in the double digits for the past few years. The company earned $182.51 billion HKD in revenue in 2017, and this number has grown to $820.2 billion HKD as of last year&#39;s annual report. This represents a net growth in revenue of almost 350% over those 5 years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c02fbb86072d4364834fb5dff4c85880\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"476\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Alibaba&#39;s e-commerce revenue growth (Statista)A quick look at their e-commerce revenue growth in domestic and international markets show that there has been a sustained uptrend in both departments over the past decade, and there is good reason to believe that revenue prospects for the company will remain strong in the years to come.Share buybackAlibaba has announced a massive $25 billion share buyback program, which came shortly after the Chinese government restored investors&#39; faith in Chinese equities. The value of the buyback is almost 10% of the company&#39;s current market capitalization, which stands at about $280 billion. This is extremely significant, and represents a substantial growth in stake ownership for the company&#39;s shareholders. The fact that the company is financially able to buy back such a large amount of shares is also a good reflection of its ability to generate free cash flows.Earnings per shareAlibaba&#39;s diluted EPS has grown from 2.45 in 2017 to 7.82 in 2021, representing an approximate 219% increase over those 5 years. This is a good indication that the company has been greatly profitable over the years. As a result, it is able to distribute more of these profits to its shareholders.Free cash flow growthAlibaba has seen a massive increase in free cash flow, from $72.39 billion HKD in 2017 to $215.66 billion HKD in 2021, representing a near 200% growth over 5 years. This is a good sign that the company is managing its operating expenses and capital expenditures well. In addition, the free cash flow-to-long term debt ratio sits at 1.11 as of 2021, which shows that the company is more than able to pay off its financial obligations. These are very promising signs that the company is in very good financial health, and is at no risk whatsoever of going under.China&#39;s growing affluenceAnother important point is that Alibaba thrives in an increasingly affluent market. China&#39;s middle class has grown from about 3% of the population in 2000 to over 50% today, and the trend shows no clear signs of pulling back. Projections show that by 2030, most of China&#39;s urban households will be in the middle income bracket and above. With an increasingly affluent market to tap into, Alibaba is likely to see a significant and sustained increase in demand for its products. This would hugely benefit the company&#39;s financials and help it stay on its impressive trajectory.Potential risksWhile there&#39;s a lot to be positive about, there are some undeniable risks that need to be mentioned.Losing market shareWhile Alibaba remains largely dominant in the Chinese market, its market share in the e-commerce industry is starting to fall due to changing consumption habits and a rise in competition. One such competitor is Pinduoduo (NASDAQ:PDD), which has proven to be formidable in the e-commerce business with its innovative methods to appeal to commerce communities. This could present a challenge for Alibaba, and it is not certain whether the company is still able to retain its large market share in the years to come.Regulatory risksWhile the Chinese government has shown signs of regulatory easing, we should never get too comfortable. Regulations concerning Chinese companies are always unpredictable, and the future of Chinese equities still bears a great deal of uncertainty. In addition, the SEC is starting to clamp down harder on foreign companies which are not compliant with any of their auditing requirements. The risks which arise from both sides still exist, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> can never be too careful, especially in today&#39;s regulatory climate.Alibaba stock valuationI will be using an EPS forecast model to determine a fair valuation of Alibaba stock. The model will be applied over 10 years, starting from 2021&#39;s EPS of 7.82. Before I do this, let me go over some of the metrics I will be using in my calculations.Metrics<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aee8ef6644c09c16436ffe9b15b5d329\" tg-width=\"350\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Assumptions used for EPS forecast model (Prepared by author)Projected annual change in shares outstandingI&#39;ve projected an average annual decrease of 1% in shares outstanding over the next 10 years. This is a reasonably conservative estimate, considering the magnitude of the share buyback program.Projected annual growth rateI&#39;ve projected an average annual growth rate of 15%, which seems to be a fairly conservative estimate considering the company&#39;s long-term earning potential.Minimum annual rate of returnI&#39;ve gone for a desired annual return of 12.5%, which beats the returns of a good <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSFF\">Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF</a> by a decent margin.Margin of safetyWhile Alibaba is a Chinese company that is generally exposed to more regulatory risk, I do believe that my previous assumptions are conservative enough and a 20% margin of safety is sufficient for this calculation.Projected P/EI&#39;ll be assuming a projected P/E of 20, which is, again, a fairly low value compared to the company&#39;s P/E over the years. We could very likely see a much higher P/E than this in the future, but once again, let&#39;s be conservative. For some reference, Alibaba&#39;s current P/E (at the time of writing) is about 28.Price target<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e60a2da9b185d8fe76a2b6a8e23a6704\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>EPS Forecast for Alibaba Stock (Prepared by author)Based on our relatively conservative assumptions, we&#39;ve arrived at a price target of $172.36. This means that if I were to invest in Alibaba at $172.36 a share, I would be getting an average annual return of 12.5% over 10 years. The current price of Alibaba stock sits at just above $110, and this shows that there is tremendous upside based on our current assumptions, which are already on the conservative side.ConclusionWhile Alibaba may face challenges in the future, I do believe that the company is on a great financial trajectory, and has tremendous upside in terms of its valuation. I conclude my analysis with a price target of $172.36, and a &#39;Strong Buy&#39; rating at today&#39;s valuation.</body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Stock: Tremendous Upside Potential</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Stock: Tremendous Upside Potential\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-23 11:52 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497070-alibaba-stock-tremendous-upside-potential>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummaryWith the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen a nice recovery.I believe that despite the possible risks, the stock has tremendous upside given ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497070-alibaba-stock-tremendous-upside-potential\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK1142":"互联网与直销零售","BK1591":"就地过年概念","BK4565":"NFT概念","BK1502":"双十一","BK1517":"云办公","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","BK1608":"元宇宙概念","BK1575":"同股不同权","BK1584":"蚂蚁金服概念","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","PDD":"拼多多","BK1501":"阿里概念股","BK4531":"中概回港概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BABA":"阿里巴巴","NYSE":"纽交所","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4558":"双十一","BK4575":"芯片概念","BK4509":"腾讯概念","BK1588":"回港中概股","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4501":"段永平概念","BK4538":"云计算","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4526":"热门中概股","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","BK4502":"阿里概念","BK1521":"挪威政府全球养老基金持仓","BK1586":"云计算","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497070-alibaba-stock-tremendous-upside-potential","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2221979490","content_text":"SummaryWith the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen a nice recovery.I believe that despite the possible risks, the stock has tremendous upside given the company's financial track record and future earning potential.I initiate coverage on Alibaba using a 10-year EPS forecast model, and give the stock a 'Strong Buy' rating at its current valuation.David Becker/Getty Images NewsAfter the Chinese government promised to stabilize markets and ease crackdowns, Chinese equities saw a huge recovery. Shares of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. ADR (NYSE:NYSE:BABA) rose from the depths of the low 70s to over $110 a share. I believe that the company still has tremendous upside from its current valuation due to its impressive financial track record over the years, and its ability to stay on track in the years to come. Despite an increase of over 50% from its recent low, the company is still undervalued.The crash and the recoveryShares of Alibaba Group sank to a terrifying low of $73.28 a share early last week, after the SEC announced its plans to delist five Chinese companies due to a lack of compliance with auditing requirements. Investors fled from Chinese equities, resulting in a massive plunge in their share prices. Alibaba was no exception, and its stock, which had already taken a beating over the past few weeks, sank to lows that haven't been seen in years. Yet, just when all hope seemed to be lost, the Chinese government stepped in to reassure investors that they would stabilize these turbulent markets, and potentially ease regulations so that Chinese companies can remain listed in overseas markets. The positive news which came mid last week triggered a near-vertical recovery in Chinese equities, whose share prices soared by double digits over the next few days. We now see Alibaba stock trading at over $110 a share, and I believe there's more upside to come.Impressive financialsTo understand how well Alibaba has been doing, let's go over a few financial metrics.Revenue growthAlibaba's revenue growth has remained in the double digits for the past few years. The company earned $182.51 billion HKD in revenue in 2017, and this number has grown to $820.2 billion HKD as of last year's annual report. This represents a net growth in revenue of almost 350% over those 5 years.Alibaba's e-commerce revenue growth (Statista)A quick look at their e-commerce revenue growth in domestic and international markets show that there has been a sustained uptrend in both departments over the past decade, and there is good reason to believe that revenue prospects for the company will remain strong in the years to come.Share buybackAlibaba has announced a massive $25 billion share buyback program, which came shortly after the Chinese government restored investors' faith in Chinese equities. The value of the buyback is almost 10% of the company's current market capitalization, which stands at about $280 billion. This is extremely significant, and represents a substantial growth in stake ownership for the company's shareholders. The fact that the company is financially able to buy back such a large amount of shares is also a good reflection of its ability to generate free cash flows.Earnings per shareAlibaba's diluted EPS has grown from 2.45 in 2017 to 7.82 in 2021, representing an approximate 219% increase over those 5 years. This is a good indication that the company has been greatly profitable over the years. As a result, it is able to distribute more of these profits to its shareholders.Free cash flow growthAlibaba has seen a massive increase in free cash flow, from $72.39 billion HKD in 2017 to $215.66 billion HKD in 2021, representing a near 200% growth over 5 years. This is a good sign that the company is managing its operating expenses and capital expenditures well. In addition, the free cash flow-to-long term debt ratio sits at 1.11 as of 2021, which shows that the company is more than able to pay off its financial obligations. These are very promising signs that the company is in very good financial health, and is at no risk whatsoever of going under.China's growing affluenceAnother important point is that Alibaba thrives in an increasingly affluent market. China's middle class has grown from about 3% of the population in 2000 to over 50% today, and the trend shows no clear signs of pulling back. Projections show that by 2030, most of China's urban households will be in the middle income bracket and above. With an increasingly affluent market to tap into, Alibaba is likely to see a significant and sustained increase in demand for its products. This would hugely benefit the company's financials and help it stay on its impressive trajectory.Potential risksWhile there's a lot to be positive about, there are some undeniable risks that need to be mentioned.Losing market shareWhile Alibaba remains largely dominant in the Chinese market, its market share in the e-commerce industry is starting to fall due to changing consumption habits and a rise in competition. One such competitor is Pinduoduo (NASDAQ:PDD), which has proven to be formidable in the e-commerce business with its innovative methods to appeal to commerce communities. This could present a challenge for Alibaba, and it is not certain whether the company is still able to retain its large market share in the years to come.Regulatory risksWhile the Chinese government has shown signs of regulatory easing, we should never get too comfortable. Regulations concerning Chinese companies are always unpredictable, and the future of Chinese equities still bears a great deal of uncertainty. In addition, the SEC is starting to clamp down harder on foreign companies which are not compliant with any of their auditing requirements. The risks which arise from both sides still exist, and one can never be too careful, especially in today's regulatory climate.Alibaba stock valuationI will be using an EPS forecast model to determine a fair valuation of Alibaba stock. The model will be applied over 10 years, starting from 2021's EPS of 7.82. Before I do this, let me go over some of the metrics I will be using in my calculations.MetricsAssumptions used for EPS forecast model (Prepared by author)Projected annual change in shares outstandingI've projected an average annual decrease of 1% in shares outstanding over the next 10 years. This is a reasonably conservative estimate, considering the magnitude of the share buyback program.Projected annual growth rateI've projected an average annual growth rate of 15%, which seems to be a fairly conservative estimate considering the company's long-term earning potential.Minimum annual rate of returnI've gone for a desired annual return of 12.5%, which beats the returns of a good Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF by a decent margin.Margin of safetyWhile Alibaba is a Chinese company that is generally exposed to more regulatory risk, I do believe that my previous assumptions are conservative enough and a 20% margin of safety is sufficient for this calculation.Projected P/EI'll be assuming a projected P/E of 20, which is, again, a fairly low value compared to the company's P/E over the years. We could very likely see a much higher P/E than this in the future, but once again, let's be conservative. For some reference, Alibaba's current P/E (at the time of writing) is about 28.Price targetEPS Forecast for Alibaba Stock (Prepared by author)Based on our relatively conservative assumptions, we've arrived at a price target of $172.36. This means that if I were to invest in Alibaba at $172.36 a share, I would be getting an average annual return of 12.5% over 10 years. The current price of Alibaba stock sits at just above $110, and this shows that there is tremendous upside based on our current assumptions, which are already on the conservative side.ConclusionWhile Alibaba may face challenges in the future, I do believe that the company is on a great financial trajectory, and has tremendous upside in terms of its valuation. I conclude my analysis with a price target of $172.36, and a 'Strong Buy' rating at today's valuation.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9037946121,"gmtCreate":1648013734086,"gmtModify":1676534293195,"author":{"id":"4092698747642690","authorId":"4092698747642690","name":"WaiSiong81","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81c10c8d3ad2387a719eaa62a541371f","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4092698747642690","authorIdStr":"4092698747642690"},"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9037946121","repostId":2221979490,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2221979490","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1648007579,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2221979490?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-23 11:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Stock: Tremendous Upside Potential","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2221979490","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryWith the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen","content":"<html><head></head><body>Summary<ul><li>With the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen a nice recovery.</li><li>I believe that despite the possible risks, the stock has tremendous upside given the company&#39;s financial track record and future earning potential.</li><li>I initiate coverage on Alibaba using a 10-year EPS forecast model, and give the stock a &#39;Strong Buy&#39; rating at its current valuation.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c7e5ba4a836568115de5c2d8498356e\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"469\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>David Becker/Getty Images NewsAfter the Chinese government promised to stabilize markets and ease crackdowns, Chinese equities saw a huge recovery. Shares of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. ADR (NYSE:NYSE:BABA) rose from the depths of the low 70s to over $110 a share. I believe that the company still has tremendous upside from its current valuation due to its impressive financial track record over the years, and its ability to stay on track in the years to come. Despite an increase of over 50% from its recent low, the company is still undervalued.The crash and the recoveryShares of Alibaba Group sank to a terrifying low of $73.28 a share early last week, after the SEC announced its plans to delist five Chinese companies due to a lack of compliance with auditing requirements. Investors fled from Chinese equities, resulting in a massive plunge in their share prices. Alibaba was no exception, and its stock, which had already taken a beating over the past few weeks, sank to lows that haven&#39;t been seen in years. Yet, just when all hope seemed to be lost, the Chinese government stepped in to reassure investors that they would stabilize these turbulent markets, and potentially ease regulations so that Chinese companies can remain listed in overseas markets. The positive news which came mid last week triggered a near-vertical recovery in Chinese equities, whose share prices soared by double digits over the next few days. We now see Alibaba stock trading at over $110 a share, and I believe there&#39;s more upside to come.Impressive financialsTo understand how well Alibaba has been doing, let&#39;s go over a few financial metrics.Revenue growthAlibaba&#39;s revenue growth has remained in the double digits for the past few years. The company earned $182.51 billion HKD in revenue in 2017, and this number has grown to $820.2 billion HKD as of last year&#39;s annual report. This represents a net growth in revenue of almost 350% over those 5 years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c02fbb86072d4364834fb5dff4c85880\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"476\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Alibaba&#39;s e-commerce revenue growth (Statista)A quick look at their e-commerce revenue growth in domestic and international markets show that there has been a sustained uptrend in both departments over the past decade, and there is good reason to believe that revenue prospects for the company will remain strong in the years to come.Share buybackAlibaba has announced a massive $25 billion share buyback program, which came shortly after the Chinese government restored investors&#39; faith in Chinese equities. The value of the buyback is almost 10% of the company&#39;s current market capitalization, which stands at about $280 billion. This is extremely significant, and represents a substantial growth in stake ownership for the company&#39;s shareholders. The fact that the company is financially able to buy back such a large amount of shares is also a good reflection of its ability to generate free cash flows.Earnings per shareAlibaba&#39;s diluted EPS has grown from 2.45 in 2017 to 7.82 in 2021, representing an approximate 219% increase over those 5 years. This is a good indication that the company has been greatly profitable over the years. As a result, it is able to distribute more of these profits to its shareholders.Free cash flow growthAlibaba has seen a massive increase in free cash flow, from $72.39 billion HKD in 2017 to $215.66 billion HKD in 2021, representing a near 200% growth over 5 years. This is a good sign that the company is managing its operating expenses and capital expenditures well. In addition, the free cash flow-to-long term debt ratio sits at 1.11 as of 2021, which shows that the company is more than able to pay off its financial obligations. These are very promising signs that the company is in very good financial health, and is at no risk whatsoever of going under.China&#39;s growing affluenceAnother important point is that Alibaba thrives in an increasingly affluent market. China&#39;s middle class has grown from about 3% of the population in 2000 to over 50% today, and the trend shows no clear signs of pulling back. Projections show that by 2030, most of China&#39;s urban households will be in the middle income bracket and above. With an increasingly affluent market to tap into, Alibaba is likely to see a significant and sustained increase in demand for its products. This would hugely benefit the company&#39;s financials and help it stay on its impressive trajectory.Potential risksWhile there&#39;s a lot to be positive about, there are some undeniable risks that need to be mentioned.Losing market shareWhile Alibaba remains largely dominant in the Chinese market, its market share in the e-commerce industry is starting to fall due to changing consumption habits and a rise in competition. One such competitor is Pinduoduo (NASDAQ:PDD), which has proven to be formidable in the e-commerce business with its innovative methods to appeal to commerce communities. This could present a challenge for Alibaba, and it is not certain whether the company is still able to retain its large market share in the years to come.Regulatory risksWhile the Chinese government has shown signs of regulatory easing, we should never get too comfortable. Regulations concerning Chinese companies are always unpredictable, and the future of Chinese equities still bears a great deal of uncertainty. In addition, the SEC is starting to clamp down harder on foreign companies which are not compliant with any of their auditing requirements. The risks which arise from both sides still exist, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> can never be too careful, especially in today&#39;s regulatory climate.Alibaba stock valuationI will be using an EPS forecast model to determine a fair valuation of Alibaba stock. The model will be applied over 10 years, starting from 2021&#39;s EPS of 7.82. Before I do this, let me go over some of the metrics I will be using in my calculations.Metrics<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aee8ef6644c09c16436ffe9b15b5d329\" tg-width=\"350\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Assumptions used for EPS forecast model (Prepared by author)Projected annual change in shares outstandingI&#39;ve projected an average annual decrease of 1% in shares outstanding over the next 10 years. This is a reasonably conservative estimate, considering the magnitude of the share buyback program.Projected annual growth rateI&#39;ve projected an average annual growth rate of 15%, which seems to be a fairly conservative estimate considering the company&#39;s long-term earning potential.Minimum annual rate of returnI&#39;ve gone for a desired annual return of 12.5%, which beats the returns of a good <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSFF\">Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF</a> by a decent margin.Margin of safetyWhile Alibaba is a Chinese company that is generally exposed to more regulatory risk, I do believe that my previous assumptions are conservative enough and a 20% margin of safety is sufficient for this calculation.Projected P/EI&#39;ll be assuming a projected P/E of 20, which is, again, a fairly low value compared to the company&#39;s P/E over the years. We could very likely see a much higher P/E than this in the future, but once again, let&#39;s be conservative. For some reference, Alibaba&#39;s current P/E (at the time of writing) is about 28.Price target<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e60a2da9b185d8fe76a2b6a8e23a6704\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>EPS Forecast for Alibaba Stock (Prepared by author)Based on our relatively conservative assumptions, we&#39;ve arrived at a price target of $172.36. This means that if I were to invest in Alibaba at $172.36 a share, I would be getting an average annual return of 12.5% over 10 years. The current price of Alibaba stock sits at just above $110, and this shows that there is tremendous upside based on our current assumptions, which are already on the conservative side.ConclusionWhile Alibaba may face challenges in the future, I do believe that the company is on a great financial trajectory, and has tremendous upside in terms of its valuation. I conclude my analysis with a price target of $172.36, and a &#39;Strong Buy&#39; rating at today&#39;s valuation.</body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Stock: Tremendous Upside Potential</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Stock: Tremendous Upside Potential\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-23 11:52 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497070-alibaba-stock-tremendous-upside-potential>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummaryWith the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen a nice recovery.I believe that despite the possible risks, the stock has tremendous upside given ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497070-alibaba-stock-tremendous-upside-potential\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK1142":"互联网与直销零售","BK1591":"就地过年概念","BK4565":"NFT概念","BK1502":"双十一","BK1517":"云办公","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","BK1608":"元宇宙概念","BK1575":"同股不同权","BK1584":"蚂蚁金服概念","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","PDD":"拼多多","BK1501":"阿里概念股","BK4531":"中概回港概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BABA":"阿里巴巴","NYSE":"纽交所","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4558":"双十一","BK4575":"芯片概念","BK4509":"腾讯概念","BK1588":"回港中概股","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4501":"段永平概念","BK4538":"云计算","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4526":"热门中概股","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","BK4502":"阿里概念","BK1521":"挪威政府全球养老基金持仓","BK1586":"云计算","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497070-alibaba-stock-tremendous-upside-potential","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2221979490","content_text":"SummaryWith the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen a nice recovery.I believe that despite the possible risks, the stock has tremendous upside given the company's financial track record and future earning potential.I initiate coverage on Alibaba using a 10-year EPS forecast model, and give the stock a 'Strong Buy' rating at its current valuation.David Becker/Getty Images NewsAfter the Chinese government promised to stabilize markets and ease crackdowns, Chinese equities saw a huge recovery. Shares of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. ADR (NYSE:NYSE:BABA) rose from the depths of the low 70s to over $110 a share. I believe that the company still has tremendous upside from its current valuation due to its impressive financial track record over the years, and its ability to stay on track in the years to come. Despite an increase of over 50% from its recent low, the company is still undervalued.The crash and the recoveryShares of Alibaba Group sank to a terrifying low of $73.28 a share early last week, after the SEC announced its plans to delist five Chinese companies due to a lack of compliance with auditing requirements. Investors fled from Chinese equities, resulting in a massive plunge in their share prices. Alibaba was no exception, and its stock, which had already taken a beating over the past few weeks, sank to lows that haven't been seen in years. Yet, just when all hope seemed to be lost, the Chinese government stepped in to reassure investors that they would stabilize these turbulent markets, and potentially ease regulations so that Chinese companies can remain listed in overseas markets. The positive news which came mid last week triggered a near-vertical recovery in Chinese equities, whose share prices soared by double digits over the next few days. We now see Alibaba stock trading at over $110 a share, and I believe there's more upside to come.Impressive financialsTo understand how well Alibaba has been doing, let's go over a few financial metrics.Revenue growthAlibaba's revenue growth has remained in the double digits for the past few years. The company earned $182.51 billion HKD in revenue in 2017, and this number has grown to $820.2 billion HKD as of last year's annual report. This represents a net growth in revenue of almost 350% over those 5 years.Alibaba's e-commerce revenue growth (Statista)A quick look at their e-commerce revenue growth in domestic and international markets show that there has been a sustained uptrend in both departments over the past decade, and there is good reason to believe that revenue prospects for the company will remain strong in the years to come.Share buybackAlibaba has announced a massive $25 billion share buyback program, which came shortly after the Chinese government restored investors' faith in Chinese equities. The value of the buyback is almost 10% of the company's current market capitalization, which stands at about $280 billion. This is extremely significant, and represents a substantial growth in stake ownership for the company's shareholders. The fact that the company is financially able to buy back such a large amount of shares is also a good reflection of its ability to generate free cash flows.Earnings per shareAlibaba's diluted EPS has grown from 2.45 in 2017 to 7.82 in 2021, representing an approximate 219% increase over those 5 years. This is a good indication that the company has been greatly profitable over the years. As a result, it is able to distribute more of these profits to its shareholders.Free cash flow growthAlibaba has seen a massive increase in free cash flow, from $72.39 billion HKD in 2017 to $215.66 billion HKD in 2021, representing a near 200% growth over 5 years. This is a good sign that the company is managing its operating expenses and capital expenditures well. In addition, the free cash flow-to-long term debt ratio sits at 1.11 as of 2021, which shows that the company is more than able to pay off its financial obligations. These are very promising signs that the company is in very good financial health, and is at no risk whatsoever of going under.China's growing affluenceAnother important point is that Alibaba thrives in an increasingly affluent market. China's middle class has grown from about 3% of the population in 2000 to over 50% today, and the trend shows no clear signs of pulling back. Projections show that by 2030, most of China's urban households will be in the middle income bracket and above. With an increasingly affluent market to tap into, Alibaba is likely to see a significant and sustained increase in demand for its products. This would hugely benefit the company's financials and help it stay on its impressive trajectory.Potential risksWhile there's a lot to be positive about, there are some undeniable risks that need to be mentioned.Losing market shareWhile Alibaba remains largely dominant in the Chinese market, its market share in the e-commerce industry is starting to fall due to changing consumption habits and a rise in competition. One such competitor is Pinduoduo (NASDAQ:PDD), which has proven to be formidable in the e-commerce business with its innovative methods to appeal to commerce communities. This could present a challenge for Alibaba, and it is not certain whether the company is still able to retain its large market share in the years to come.Regulatory risksWhile the Chinese government has shown signs of regulatory easing, we should never get too comfortable. Regulations concerning Chinese companies are always unpredictable, and the future of Chinese equities still bears a great deal of uncertainty. In addition, the SEC is starting to clamp down harder on foreign companies which are not compliant with any of their auditing requirements. The risks which arise from both sides still exist, and one can never be too careful, especially in today's regulatory climate.Alibaba stock valuationI will be using an EPS forecast model to determine a fair valuation of Alibaba stock. The model will be applied over 10 years, starting from 2021's EPS of 7.82. Before I do this, let me go over some of the metrics I will be using in my calculations.MetricsAssumptions used for EPS forecast model (Prepared by author)Projected annual change in shares outstandingI've projected an average annual decrease of 1% in shares outstanding over the next 10 years. This is a reasonably conservative estimate, considering the magnitude of the share buyback program.Projected annual growth rateI've projected an average annual growth rate of 15%, which seems to be a fairly conservative estimate considering the company's long-term earning potential.Minimum annual rate of returnI've gone for a desired annual return of 12.5%, which beats the returns of a good Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF by a decent margin.Margin of safetyWhile Alibaba is a Chinese company that is generally exposed to more regulatory risk, I do believe that my previous assumptions are conservative enough and a 20% margin of safety is sufficient for this calculation.Projected P/EI'll be assuming a projected P/E of 20, which is, again, a fairly low value compared to the company's P/E over the years. We could very likely see a much higher P/E than this in the future, but once again, let's be conservative. For some reference, Alibaba's current P/E (at the time of writing) is about 28.Price targetEPS Forecast for Alibaba Stock (Prepared by author)Based on our relatively conservative assumptions, we've arrived at a price target of $172.36. This means that if I were to invest in Alibaba at $172.36 a share, I would be getting an average annual return of 12.5% over 10 years. The current price of Alibaba stock sits at just above $110, and this shows that there is tremendous upside based on our current assumptions, which are already on the conservative side.ConclusionWhile Alibaba may face challenges in the future, I do believe that the company is on a great financial trajectory, and has tremendous upside in terms of its valuation. I conclude my analysis with a price target of $172.36, and a 'Strong Buy' rating at today's valuation.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9037957479,"gmtCreate":1648012677827,"gmtModify":1676534293052,"author":{"id":"3575095071240565","authorId":"3575095071240565","name":"CarlRN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3223aa722e2ac0f27c25d0309558dad","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575095071240565","authorIdStr":"3575095071240565"},"htmlText":"Latest","listText":"Latest","text":"Latest","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9037957479","repostId":2221979490,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2221979490","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1648007579,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2221979490?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-23 11:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Stock: Tremendous Upside Potential","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2221979490","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryWith the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen","content":"<html><head></head><body>Summary<ul><li>With the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen a nice recovery.</li><li>I believe that despite the possible risks, the stock has tremendous upside given the company&#39;s financial track record and future earning potential.</li><li>I initiate coverage on Alibaba using a 10-year EPS forecast model, and give the stock a &#39;Strong Buy&#39; rating at its current valuation.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c7e5ba4a836568115de5c2d8498356e\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"469\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>David Becker/Getty Images NewsAfter the Chinese government promised to stabilize markets and ease crackdowns, Chinese equities saw a huge recovery. Shares of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. ADR (NYSE:NYSE:BABA) rose from the depths of the low 70s to over $110 a share. I believe that the company still has tremendous upside from its current valuation due to its impressive financial track record over the years, and its ability to stay on track in the years to come. Despite an increase of over 50% from its recent low, the company is still undervalued.The crash and the recoveryShares of Alibaba Group sank to a terrifying low of $73.28 a share early last week, after the SEC announced its plans to delist five Chinese companies due to a lack of compliance with auditing requirements. Investors fled from Chinese equities, resulting in a massive plunge in their share prices. Alibaba was no exception, and its stock, which had already taken a beating over the past few weeks, sank to lows that haven&#39;t been seen in years. Yet, just when all hope seemed to be lost, the Chinese government stepped in to reassure investors that they would stabilize these turbulent markets, and potentially ease regulations so that Chinese companies can remain listed in overseas markets. The positive news which came mid last week triggered a near-vertical recovery in Chinese equities, whose share prices soared by double digits over the next few days. We now see Alibaba stock trading at over $110 a share, and I believe there&#39;s more upside to come.Impressive financialsTo understand how well Alibaba has been doing, let&#39;s go over a few financial metrics.Revenue growthAlibaba&#39;s revenue growth has remained in the double digits for the past few years. The company earned $182.51 billion HKD in revenue in 2017, and this number has grown to $820.2 billion HKD as of last year&#39;s annual report. This represents a net growth in revenue of almost 350% over those 5 years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c02fbb86072d4364834fb5dff4c85880\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"476\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Alibaba&#39;s e-commerce revenue growth (Statista)A quick look at their e-commerce revenue growth in domestic and international markets show that there has been a sustained uptrend in both departments over the past decade, and there is good reason to believe that revenue prospects for the company will remain strong in the years to come.Share buybackAlibaba has announced a massive $25 billion share buyback program, which came shortly after the Chinese government restored investors&#39; faith in Chinese equities. The value of the buyback is almost 10% of the company&#39;s current market capitalization, which stands at about $280 billion. This is extremely significant, and represents a substantial growth in stake ownership for the company&#39;s shareholders. The fact that the company is financially able to buy back such a large amount of shares is also a good reflection of its ability to generate free cash flows.Earnings per shareAlibaba&#39;s diluted EPS has grown from 2.45 in 2017 to 7.82 in 2021, representing an approximate 219% increase over those 5 years. This is a good indication that the company has been greatly profitable over the years. As a result, it is able to distribute more of these profits to its shareholders.Free cash flow growthAlibaba has seen a massive increase in free cash flow, from $72.39 billion HKD in 2017 to $215.66 billion HKD in 2021, representing a near 200% growth over 5 years. This is a good sign that the company is managing its operating expenses and capital expenditures well. In addition, the free cash flow-to-long term debt ratio sits at 1.11 as of 2021, which shows that the company is more than able to pay off its financial obligations. These are very promising signs that the company is in very good financial health, and is at no risk whatsoever of going under.China&#39;s growing affluenceAnother important point is that Alibaba thrives in an increasingly affluent market. China&#39;s middle class has grown from about 3% of the population in 2000 to over 50% today, and the trend shows no clear signs of pulling back. Projections show that by 2030, most of China&#39;s urban households will be in the middle income bracket and above. With an increasingly affluent market to tap into, Alibaba is likely to see a significant and sustained increase in demand for its products. This would hugely benefit the company&#39;s financials and help it stay on its impressive trajectory.Potential risksWhile there&#39;s a lot to be positive about, there are some undeniable risks that need to be mentioned.Losing market shareWhile Alibaba remains largely dominant in the Chinese market, its market share in the e-commerce industry is starting to fall due to changing consumption habits and a rise in competition. One such competitor is Pinduoduo (NASDAQ:PDD), which has proven to be formidable in the e-commerce business with its innovative methods to appeal to commerce communities. This could present a challenge for Alibaba, and it is not certain whether the company is still able to retain its large market share in the years to come.Regulatory risksWhile the Chinese government has shown signs of regulatory easing, we should never get too comfortable. Regulations concerning Chinese companies are always unpredictable, and the future of Chinese equities still bears a great deal of uncertainty. In addition, the SEC is starting to clamp down harder on foreign companies which are not compliant with any of their auditing requirements. The risks which arise from both sides still exist, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> can never be too careful, especially in today&#39;s regulatory climate.Alibaba stock valuationI will be using an EPS forecast model to determine a fair valuation of Alibaba stock. The model will be applied over 10 years, starting from 2021&#39;s EPS of 7.82. Before I do this, let me go over some of the metrics I will be using in my calculations.Metrics<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aee8ef6644c09c16436ffe9b15b5d329\" tg-width=\"350\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Assumptions used for EPS forecast model (Prepared by author)Projected annual change in shares outstandingI&#39;ve projected an average annual decrease of 1% in shares outstanding over the next 10 years. This is a reasonably conservative estimate, considering the magnitude of the share buyback program.Projected annual growth rateI&#39;ve projected an average annual growth rate of 15%, which seems to be a fairly conservative estimate considering the company&#39;s long-term earning potential.Minimum annual rate of returnI&#39;ve gone for a desired annual return of 12.5%, which beats the returns of a good <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSFF\">Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF</a> by a decent margin.Margin of safetyWhile Alibaba is a Chinese company that is generally exposed to more regulatory risk, I do believe that my previous assumptions are conservative enough and a 20% margin of safety is sufficient for this calculation.Projected P/EI&#39;ll be assuming a projected P/E of 20, which is, again, a fairly low value compared to the company&#39;s P/E over the years. We could very likely see a much higher P/E than this in the future, but once again, let&#39;s be conservative. For some reference, Alibaba&#39;s current P/E (at the time of writing) is about 28.Price target<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e60a2da9b185d8fe76a2b6a8e23a6704\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>EPS Forecast for Alibaba Stock (Prepared by author)Based on our relatively conservative assumptions, we&#39;ve arrived at a price target of $172.36. This means that if I were to invest in Alibaba at $172.36 a share, I would be getting an average annual return of 12.5% over 10 years. The current price of Alibaba stock sits at just above $110, and this shows that there is tremendous upside based on our current assumptions, which are already on the conservative side.ConclusionWhile Alibaba may face challenges in the future, I do believe that the company is on a great financial trajectory, and has tremendous upside in terms of its valuation. I conclude my analysis with a price target of $172.36, and a &#39;Strong Buy&#39; rating at today&#39;s valuation.</body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Stock: Tremendous Upside Potential</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Stock: Tremendous Upside Potential\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-23 11:52 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497070-alibaba-stock-tremendous-upside-potential>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummaryWith the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen a nice recovery.I believe that despite the possible risks, the stock has tremendous upside given ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497070-alibaba-stock-tremendous-upside-potential\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK1142":"互联网与直销零售","BK1591":"就地过年概念","BK4565":"NFT概念","BK1502":"双十一","BK1517":"云办公","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","BK1608":"元宇宙概念","BK1575":"同股不同权","BK1584":"蚂蚁金服概念","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","PDD":"拼多多","BK1501":"阿里概念股","BK4531":"中概回港概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BABA":"阿里巴巴","NYSE":"纽交所","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4558":"双十一","BK4575":"芯片概念","BK4509":"腾讯概念","BK1588":"回港中概股","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4501":"段永平概念","BK4538":"云计算","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4526":"热门中概股","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","BK4502":"阿里概念","BK1521":"挪威政府全球养老基金持仓","BK1586":"云计算","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497070-alibaba-stock-tremendous-upside-potential","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2221979490","content_text":"SummaryWith the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen a nice recovery.I believe that despite the possible risks, the stock has tremendous upside given the company's financial track record and future earning potential.I initiate coverage on Alibaba using a 10-year EPS forecast model, and give the stock a 'Strong Buy' rating at its current valuation.David Becker/Getty Images NewsAfter the Chinese government promised to stabilize markets and ease crackdowns, Chinese equities saw a huge recovery. Shares of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. ADR (NYSE:NYSE:BABA) rose from the depths of the low 70s to over $110 a share. I believe that the company still has tremendous upside from its current valuation due to its impressive financial track record over the years, and its ability to stay on track in the years to come. Despite an increase of over 50% from its recent low, the company is still undervalued.The crash and the recoveryShares of Alibaba Group sank to a terrifying low of $73.28 a share early last week, after the SEC announced its plans to delist five Chinese companies due to a lack of compliance with auditing requirements. Investors fled from Chinese equities, resulting in a massive plunge in their share prices. Alibaba was no exception, and its stock, which had already taken a beating over the past few weeks, sank to lows that haven't been seen in years. Yet, just when all hope seemed to be lost, the Chinese government stepped in to reassure investors that they would stabilize these turbulent markets, and potentially ease regulations so that Chinese companies can remain listed in overseas markets. The positive news which came mid last week triggered a near-vertical recovery in Chinese equities, whose share prices soared by double digits over the next few days. We now see Alibaba stock trading at over $110 a share, and I believe there's more upside to come.Impressive financialsTo understand how well Alibaba has been doing, let's go over a few financial metrics.Revenue growthAlibaba's revenue growth has remained in the double digits for the past few years. The company earned $182.51 billion HKD in revenue in 2017, and this number has grown to $820.2 billion HKD as of last year's annual report. This represents a net growth in revenue of almost 350% over those 5 years.Alibaba's e-commerce revenue growth (Statista)A quick look at their e-commerce revenue growth in domestic and international markets show that there has been a sustained uptrend in both departments over the past decade, and there is good reason to believe that revenue prospects for the company will remain strong in the years to come.Share buybackAlibaba has announced a massive $25 billion share buyback program, which came shortly after the Chinese government restored investors' faith in Chinese equities. The value of the buyback is almost 10% of the company's current market capitalization, which stands at about $280 billion. This is extremely significant, and represents a substantial growth in stake ownership for the company's shareholders. The fact that the company is financially able to buy back such a large amount of shares is also a good reflection of its ability to generate free cash flows.Earnings per shareAlibaba's diluted EPS has grown from 2.45 in 2017 to 7.82 in 2021, representing an approximate 219% increase over those 5 years. This is a good indication that the company has been greatly profitable over the years. As a result, it is able to distribute more of these profits to its shareholders.Free cash flow growthAlibaba has seen a massive increase in free cash flow, from $72.39 billion HKD in 2017 to $215.66 billion HKD in 2021, representing a near 200% growth over 5 years. This is a good sign that the company is managing its operating expenses and capital expenditures well. In addition, the free cash flow-to-long term debt ratio sits at 1.11 as of 2021, which shows that the company is more than able to pay off its financial obligations. These are very promising signs that the company is in very good financial health, and is at no risk whatsoever of going under.China's growing affluenceAnother important point is that Alibaba thrives in an increasingly affluent market. China's middle class has grown from about 3% of the population in 2000 to over 50% today, and the trend shows no clear signs of pulling back. Projections show that by 2030, most of China's urban households will be in the middle income bracket and above. With an increasingly affluent market to tap into, Alibaba is likely to see a significant and sustained increase in demand for its products. This would hugely benefit the company's financials and help it stay on its impressive trajectory.Potential risksWhile there's a lot to be positive about, there are some undeniable risks that need to be mentioned.Losing market shareWhile Alibaba remains largely dominant in the Chinese market, its market share in the e-commerce industry is starting to fall due to changing consumption habits and a rise in competition. One such competitor is Pinduoduo (NASDAQ:PDD), which has proven to be formidable in the e-commerce business with its innovative methods to appeal to commerce communities. This could present a challenge for Alibaba, and it is not certain whether the company is still able to retain its large market share in the years to come.Regulatory risksWhile the Chinese government has shown signs of regulatory easing, we should never get too comfortable. Regulations concerning Chinese companies are always unpredictable, and the future of Chinese equities still bears a great deal of uncertainty. In addition, the SEC is starting to clamp down harder on foreign companies which are not compliant with any of their auditing requirements. The risks which arise from both sides still exist, and one can never be too careful, especially in today's regulatory climate.Alibaba stock valuationI will be using an EPS forecast model to determine a fair valuation of Alibaba stock. The model will be applied over 10 years, starting from 2021's EPS of 7.82. Before I do this, let me go over some of the metrics I will be using in my calculations.MetricsAssumptions used for EPS forecast model (Prepared by author)Projected annual change in shares outstandingI've projected an average annual decrease of 1% in shares outstanding over the next 10 years. This is a reasonably conservative estimate, considering the magnitude of the share buyback program.Projected annual growth rateI've projected an average annual growth rate of 15%, which seems to be a fairly conservative estimate considering the company's long-term earning potential.Minimum annual rate of returnI've gone for a desired annual return of 12.5%, which beats the returns of a good Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF by a decent margin.Margin of safetyWhile Alibaba is a Chinese company that is generally exposed to more regulatory risk, I do believe that my previous assumptions are conservative enough and a 20% margin of safety is sufficient for this calculation.Projected P/EI'll be assuming a projected P/E of 20, which is, again, a fairly low value compared to the company's P/E over the years. We could very likely see a much higher P/E than this in the future, but once again, let's be conservative. For some reference, Alibaba's current P/E (at the time of writing) is about 28.Price targetEPS Forecast for Alibaba Stock (Prepared by author)Based on our relatively conservative assumptions, we've arrived at a price target of $172.36. This means that if I were to invest in Alibaba at $172.36 a share, I would be getting an average annual return of 12.5% over 10 years. The current price of Alibaba stock sits at just above $110, and this shows that there is tremendous upside based on our current assumptions, which are already on the conservative side.ConclusionWhile Alibaba may face challenges in the future, I do believe that the company is on a great financial trajectory, and has tremendous upside in terms of its valuation. I conclude my analysis with a price target of $172.36, and a 'Strong Buy' rating at today's valuation.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9037954099,"gmtCreate":1648012255208,"gmtModify":1676534292931,"author":{"id":"3559859558754319","authorId":"3559859558754319","name":"Bodoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/349218ea2852130ca86ce660b4aa2d59","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3559859558754319","authorIdStr":"3559859558754319"},"htmlText":"Yup","listText":"Yup","text":"Yup","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9037954099","repostId":2221979490,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2221979490","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1648007579,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2221979490?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-23 11:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Stock: Tremendous Upside Potential","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2221979490","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryWith the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen","content":"<html><head></head><body>Summary<ul><li>With the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen a nice recovery.</li><li>I believe that despite the possible risks, the stock has tremendous upside given the company&#39;s financial track record and future earning potential.</li><li>I initiate coverage on Alibaba using a 10-year EPS forecast model, and give the stock a &#39;Strong Buy&#39; rating at its current valuation.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c7e5ba4a836568115de5c2d8498356e\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"469\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>David Becker/Getty Images NewsAfter the Chinese government promised to stabilize markets and ease crackdowns, Chinese equities saw a huge recovery. Shares of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. ADR (NYSE:NYSE:BABA) rose from the depths of the low 70s to over $110 a share. I believe that the company still has tremendous upside from its current valuation due to its impressive financial track record over the years, and its ability to stay on track in the years to come. Despite an increase of over 50% from its recent low, the company is still undervalued.The crash and the recoveryShares of Alibaba Group sank to a terrifying low of $73.28 a share early last week, after the SEC announced its plans to delist five Chinese companies due to a lack of compliance with auditing requirements. Investors fled from Chinese equities, resulting in a massive plunge in their share prices. Alibaba was no exception, and its stock, which had already taken a beating over the past few weeks, sank to lows that haven&#39;t been seen in years. Yet, just when all hope seemed to be lost, the Chinese government stepped in to reassure investors that they would stabilize these turbulent markets, and potentially ease regulations so that Chinese companies can remain listed in overseas markets. The positive news which came mid last week triggered a near-vertical recovery in Chinese equities, whose share prices soared by double digits over the next few days. We now see Alibaba stock trading at over $110 a share, and I believe there&#39;s more upside to come.Impressive financialsTo understand how well Alibaba has been doing, let&#39;s go over a few financial metrics.Revenue growthAlibaba&#39;s revenue growth has remained in the double digits for the past few years. The company earned $182.51 billion HKD in revenue in 2017, and this number has grown to $820.2 billion HKD as of last year&#39;s annual report. This represents a net growth in revenue of almost 350% over those 5 years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c02fbb86072d4364834fb5dff4c85880\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"476\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Alibaba&#39;s e-commerce revenue growth (Statista)A quick look at their e-commerce revenue growth in domestic and international markets show that there has been a sustained uptrend in both departments over the past decade, and there is good reason to believe that revenue prospects for the company will remain strong in the years to come.Share buybackAlibaba has announced a massive $25 billion share buyback program, which came shortly after the Chinese government restored investors&#39; faith in Chinese equities. The value of the buyback is almost 10% of the company&#39;s current market capitalization, which stands at about $280 billion. This is extremely significant, and represents a substantial growth in stake ownership for the company&#39;s shareholders. The fact that the company is financially able to buy back such a large amount of shares is also a good reflection of its ability to generate free cash flows.Earnings per shareAlibaba&#39;s diluted EPS has grown from 2.45 in 2017 to 7.82 in 2021, representing an approximate 219% increase over those 5 years. This is a good indication that the company has been greatly profitable over the years. As a result, it is able to distribute more of these profits to its shareholders.Free cash flow growthAlibaba has seen a massive increase in free cash flow, from $72.39 billion HKD in 2017 to $215.66 billion HKD in 2021, representing a near 200% growth over 5 years. This is a good sign that the company is managing its operating expenses and capital expenditures well. In addition, the free cash flow-to-long term debt ratio sits at 1.11 as of 2021, which shows that the company is more than able to pay off its financial obligations. These are very promising signs that the company is in very good financial health, and is at no risk whatsoever of going under.China&#39;s growing affluenceAnother important point is that Alibaba thrives in an increasingly affluent market. China&#39;s middle class has grown from about 3% of the population in 2000 to over 50% today, and the trend shows no clear signs of pulling back. Projections show that by 2030, most of China&#39;s urban households will be in the middle income bracket and above. With an increasingly affluent market to tap into, Alibaba is likely to see a significant and sustained increase in demand for its products. This would hugely benefit the company&#39;s financials and help it stay on its impressive trajectory.Potential risksWhile there&#39;s a lot to be positive about, there are some undeniable risks that need to be mentioned.Losing market shareWhile Alibaba remains largely dominant in the Chinese market, its market share in the e-commerce industry is starting to fall due to changing consumption habits and a rise in competition. One such competitor is Pinduoduo (NASDAQ:PDD), which has proven to be formidable in the e-commerce business with its innovative methods to appeal to commerce communities. This could present a challenge for Alibaba, and it is not certain whether the company is still able to retain its large market share in the years to come.Regulatory risksWhile the Chinese government has shown signs of regulatory easing, we should never get too comfortable. Regulations concerning Chinese companies are always unpredictable, and the future of Chinese equities still bears a great deal of uncertainty. In addition, the SEC is starting to clamp down harder on foreign companies which are not compliant with any of their auditing requirements. The risks which arise from both sides still exist, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> can never be too careful, especially in today&#39;s regulatory climate.Alibaba stock valuationI will be using an EPS forecast model to determine a fair valuation of Alibaba stock. The model will be applied over 10 years, starting from 2021&#39;s EPS of 7.82. Before I do this, let me go over some of the metrics I will be using in my calculations.Metrics<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aee8ef6644c09c16436ffe9b15b5d329\" tg-width=\"350\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Assumptions used for EPS forecast model (Prepared by author)Projected annual change in shares outstandingI&#39;ve projected an average annual decrease of 1% in shares outstanding over the next 10 years. This is a reasonably conservative estimate, considering the magnitude of the share buyback program.Projected annual growth rateI&#39;ve projected an average annual growth rate of 15%, which seems to be a fairly conservative estimate considering the company&#39;s long-term earning potential.Minimum annual rate of returnI&#39;ve gone for a desired annual return of 12.5%, which beats the returns of a good <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSFF\">Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF</a> by a decent margin.Margin of safetyWhile Alibaba is a Chinese company that is generally exposed to more regulatory risk, I do believe that my previous assumptions are conservative enough and a 20% margin of safety is sufficient for this calculation.Projected P/EI&#39;ll be assuming a projected P/E of 20, which is, again, a fairly low value compared to the company&#39;s P/E over the years. We could very likely see a much higher P/E than this in the future, but once again, let&#39;s be conservative. For some reference, Alibaba&#39;s current P/E (at the time of writing) is about 28.Price target<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e60a2da9b185d8fe76a2b6a8e23a6704\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>EPS Forecast for Alibaba Stock (Prepared by author)Based on our relatively conservative assumptions, we&#39;ve arrived at a price target of $172.36. This means that if I were to invest in Alibaba at $172.36 a share, I would be getting an average annual return of 12.5% over 10 years. The current price of Alibaba stock sits at just above $110, and this shows that there is tremendous upside based on our current assumptions, which are already on the conservative side.ConclusionWhile Alibaba may face challenges in the future, I do believe that the company is on a great financial trajectory, and has tremendous upside in terms of its valuation. I conclude my analysis with a price target of $172.36, and a &#39;Strong Buy&#39; rating at today&#39;s valuation.</body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Stock: Tremendous Upside Potential</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Stock: Tremendous Upside Potential\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-23 11:52 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497070-alibaba-stock-tremendous-upside-potential>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummaryWith the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen a nice recovery.I believe that despite the possible risks, the stock has tremendous upside given ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497070-alibaba-stock-tremendous-upside-potential\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK1142":"互联网与直销零售","BK1591":"就地过年概念","BK4565":"NFT概念","BK1502":"双十一","BK1517":"云办公","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","BK1608":"元宇宙概念","BK1575":"同股不同权","BK1584":"蚂蚁金服概念","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","PDD":"拼多多","BK1501":"阿里概念股","BK4531":"中概回港概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BABA":"阿里巴巴","NYSE":"纽交所","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4558":"双十一","BK4575":"芯片概念","BK4509":"腾讯概念","BK1588":"回港中概股","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4501":"段永平概念","BK4538":"云计算","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4526":"热门中概股","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","BK4502":"阿里概念","BK1521":"挪威政府全球养老基金持仓","BK1586":"云计算","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497070-alibaba-stock-tremendous-upside-potential","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2221979490","content_text":"SummaryWith the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen a nice recovery.I believe that despite the possible risks, the stock has tremendous upside given the company's financial track record and future earning potential.I initiate coverage on Alibaba using a 10-year EPS forecast model, and give the stock a 'Strong Buy' rating at its current valuation.David Becker/Getty Images NewsAfter the Chinese government promised to stabilize markets and ease crackdowns, Chinese equities saw a huge recovery. Shares of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. ADR (NYSE:NYSE:BABA) rose from the depths of the low 70s to over $110 a share. I believe that the company still has tremendous upside from its current valuation due to its impressive financial track record over the years, and its ability to stay on track in the years to come. Despite an increase of over 50% from its recent low, the company is still undervalued.The crash and the recoveryShares of Alibaba Group sank to a terrifying low of $73.28 a share early last week, after the SEC announced its plans to delist five Chinese companies due to a lack of compliance with auditing requirements. Investors fled from Chinese equities, resulting in a massive plunge in their share prices. Alibaba was no exception, and its stock, which had already taken a beating over the past few weeks, sank to lows that haven't been seen in years. Yet, just when all hope seemed to be lost, the Chinese government stepped in to reassure investors that they would stabilize these turbulent markets, and potentially ease regulations so that Chinese companies can remain listed in overseas markets. The positive news which came mid last week triggered a near-vertical recovery in Chinese equities, whose share prices soared by double digits over the next few days. We now see Alibaba stock trading at over $110 a share, and I believe there's more upside to come.Impressive financialsTo understand how well Alibaba has been doing, let's go over a few financial metrics.Revenue growthAlibaba's revenue growth has remained in the double digits for the past few years. The company earned $182.51 billion HKD in revenue in 2017, and this number has grown to $820.2 billion HKD as of last year's annual report. This represents a net growth in revenue of almost 350% over those 5 years.Alibaba's e-commerce revenue growth (Statista)A quick look at their e-commerce revenue growth in domestic and international markets show that there has been a sustained uptrend in both departments over the past decade, and there is good reason to believe that revenue prospects for the company will remain strong in the years to come.Share buybackAlibaba has announced a massive $25 billion share buyback program, which came shortly after the Chinese government restored investors' faith in Chinese equities. The value of the buyback is almost 10% of the company's current market capitalization, which stands at about $280 billion. This is extremely significant, and represents a substantial growth in stake ownership for the company's shareholders. The fact that the company is financially able to buy back such a large amount of shares is also a good reflection of its ability to generate free cash flows.Earnings per shareAlibaba's diluted EPS has grown from 2.45 in 2017 to 7.82 in 2021, representing an approximate 219% increase over those 5 years. This is a good indication that the company has been greatly profitable over the years. As a result, it is able to distribute more of these profits to its shareholders.Free cash flow growthAlibaba has seen a massive increase in free cash flow, from $72.39 billion HKD in 2017 to $215.66 billion HKD in 2021, representing a near 200% growth over 5 years. This is a good sign that the company is managing its operating expenses and capital expenditures well. In addition, the free cash flow-to-long term debt ratio sits at 1.11 as of 2021, which shows that the company is more than able to pay off its financial obligations. These are very promising signs that the company is in very good financial health, and is at no risk whatsoever of going under.China's growing affluenceAnother important point is that Alibaba thrives in an increasingly affluent market. China's middle class has grown from about 3% of the population in 2000 to over 50% today, and the trend shows no clear signs of pulling back. Projections show that by 2030, most of China's urban households will be in the middle income bracket and above. With an increasingly affluent market to tap into, Alibaba is likely to see a significant and sustained increase in demand for its products. This would hugely benefit the company's financials and help it stay on its impressive trajectory.Potential risksWhile there's a lot to be positive about, there are some undeniable risks that need to be mentioned.Losing market shareWhile Alibaba remains largely dominant in the Chinese market, its market share in the e-commerce industry is starting to fall due to changing consumption habits and a rise in competition. One such competitor is Pinduoduo (NASDAQ:PDD), which has proven to be formidable in the e-commerce business with its innovative methods to appeal to commerce communities. This could present a challenge for Alibaba, and it is not certain whether the company is still able to retain its large market share in the years to come.Regulatory risksWhile the Chinese government has shown signs of regulatory easing, we should never get too comfortable. Regulations concerning Chinese companies are always unpredictable, and the future of Chinese equities still bears a great deal of uncertainty. In addition, the SEC is starting to clamp down harder on foreign companies which are not compliant with any of their auditing requirements. The risks which arise from both sides still exist, and one can never be too careful, especially in today's regulatory climate.Alibaba stock valuationI will be using an EPS forecast model to determine a fair valuation of Alibaba stock. The model will be applied over 10 years, starting from 2021's EPS of 7.82. Before I do this, let me go over some of the metrics I will be using in my calculations.MetricsAssumptions used for EPS forecast model (Prepared by author)Projected annual change in shares outstandingI've projected an average annual decrease of 1% in shares outstanding over the next 10 years. This is a reasonably conservative estimate, considering the magnitude of the share buyback program.Projected annual growth rateI've projected an average annual growth rate of 15%, which seems to be a fairly conservative estimate considering the company's long-term earning potential.Minimum annual rate of returnI've gone for a desired annual return of 12.5%, which beats the returns of a good Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF by a decent margin.Margin of safetyWhile Alibaba is a Chinese company that is generally exposed to more regulatory risk, I do believe that my previous assumptions are conservative enough and a 20% margin of safety is sufficient for this calculation.Projected P/EI'll be assuming a projected P/E of 20, which is, again, a fairly low value compared to the company's P/E over the years. We could very likely see a much higher P/E than this in the future, but once again, let's be conservative. For some reference, Alibaba's current P/E (at the time of writing) is about 28.Price targetEPS Forecast for Alibaba Stock (Prepared by author)Based on our relatively conservative assumptions, we've arrived at a price target of $172.36. This means that if I were to invest in Alibaba at $172.36 a share, I would be getting an average annual return of 12.5% over 10 years. The current price of Alibaba stock sits at just above $110, and this shows that there is tremendous upside based on our current assumptions, which are already on the conservative side.ConclusionWhile Alibaba may face challenges in the future, I do believe that the company is on a great financial trajectory, and has tremendous upside in terms of its valuation. I conclude my analysis with a price target of $172.36, and a 'Strong Buy' rating at today's valuation.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9037956191,"gmtCreate":1648011698204,"gmtModify":1676534292875,"author":{"id":"4110527799654552","authorId":"4110527799654552","name":"Zeniv","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5aa130e67df4736e07b2ed6a3df065af","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4110527799654552","authorIdStr":"4110527799654552"},"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9037956191","repostId":2221979490,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2221979490","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1648007579,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2221979490?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-23 11:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Stock: Tremendous Upside Potential","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2221979490","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryWith the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen","content":"<html><head></head><body>Summary<ul><li>With the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen a nice recovery.</li><li>I believe that despite the possible risks, the stock has tremendous upside given the company&#39;s financial track record and future earning potential.</li><li>I initiate coverage on Alibaba using a 10-year EPS forecast model, and give the stock a &#39;Strong Buy&#39; rating at its current valuation.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c7e5ba4a836568115de5c2d8498356e\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"469\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>David Becker/Getty Images NewsAfter the Chinese government promised to stabilize markets and ease crackdowns, Chinese equities saw a huge recovery. Shares of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. ADR (NYSE:NYSE:BABA) rose from the depths of the low 70s to over $110 a share. I believe that the company still has tremendous upside from its current valuation due to its impressive financial track record over the years, and its ability to stay on track in the years to come. Despite an increase of over 50% from its recent low, the company is still undervalued.The crash and the recoveryShares of Alibaba Group sank to a terrifying low of $73.28 a share early last week, after the SEC announced its plans to delist five Chinese companies due to a lack of compliance with auditing requirements. Investors fled from Chinese equities, resulting in a massive plunge in their share prices. Alibaba was no exception, and its stock, which had already taken a beating over the past few weeks, sank to lows that haven&#39;t been seen in years. Yet, just when all hope seemed to be lost, the Chinese government stepped in to reassure investors that they would stabilize these turbulent markets, and potentially ease regulations so that Chinese companies can remain listed in overseas markets. The positive news which came mid last week triggered a near-vertical recovery in Chinese equities, whose share prices soared by double digits over the next few days. We now see Alibaba stock trading at over $110 a share, and I believe there&#39;s more upside to come.Impressive financialsTo understand how well Alibaba has been doing, let&#39;s go over a few financial metrics.Revenue growthAlibaba&#39;s revenue growth has remained in the double digits for the past few years. The company earned $182.51 billion HKD in revenue in 2017, and this number has grown to $820.2 billion HKD as of last year&#39;s annual report. This represents a net growth in revenue of almost 350% over those 5 years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c02fbb86072d4364834fb5dff4c85880\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"476\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Alibaba&#39;s e-commerce revenue growth (Statista)A quick look at their e-commerce revenue growth in domestic and international markets show that there has been a sustained uptrend in both departments over the past decade, and there is good reason to believe that revenue prospects for the company will remain strong in the years to come.Share buybackAlibaba has announced a massive $25 billion share buyback program, which came shortly after the Chinese government restored investors&#39; faith in Chinese equities. The value of the buyback is almost 10% of the company&#39;s current market capitalization, which stands at about $280 billion. This is extremely significant, and represents a substantial growth in stake ownership for the company&#39;s shareholders. The fact that the company is financially able to buy back such a large amount of shares is also a good reflection of its ability to generate free cash flows.Earnings per shareAlibaba&#39;s diluted EPS has grown from 2.45 in 2017 to 7.82 in 2021, representing an approximate 219% increase over those 5 years. This is a good indication that the company has been greatly profitable over the years. As a result, it is able to distribute more of these profits to its shareholders.Free cash flow growthAlibaba has seen a massive increase in free cash flow, from $72.39 billion HKD in 2017 to $215.66 billion HKD in 2021, representing a near 200% growth over 5 years. This is a good sign that the company is managing its operating expenses and capital expenditures well. In addition, the free cash flow-to-long term debt ratio sits at 1.11 as of 2021, which shows that the company is more than able to pay off its financial obligations. These are very promising signs that the company is in very good financial health, and is at no risk whatsoever of going under.China&#39;s growing affluenceAnother important point is that Alibaba thrives in an increasingly affluent market. China&#39;s middle class has grown from about 3% of the population in 2000 to over 50% today, and the trend shows no clear signs of pulling back. Projections show that by 2030, most of China&#39;s urban households will be in the middle income bracket and above. With an increasingly affluent market to tap into, Alibaba is likely to see a significant and sustained increase in demand for its products. This would hugely benefit the company&#39;s financials and help it stay on its impressive trajectory.Potential risksWhile there&#39;s a lot to be positive about, there are some undeniable risks that need to be mentioned.Losing market shareWhile Alibaba remains largely dominant in the Chinese market, its market share in the e-commerce industry is starting to fall due to changing consumption habits and a rise in competition. One such competitor is Pinduoduo (NASDAQ:PDD), which has proven to be formidable in the e-commerce business with its innovative methods to appeal to commerce communities. This could present a challenge for Alibaba, and it is not certain whether the company is still able to retain its large market share in the years to come.Regulatory risksWhile the Chinese government has shown signs of regulatory easing, we should never get too comfortable. Regulations concerning Chinese companies are always unpredictable, and the future of Chinese equities still bears a great deal of uncertainty. In addition, the SEC is starting to clamp down harder on foreign companies which are not compliant with any of their auditing requirements. The risks which arise from both sides still exist, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> can never be too careful, especially in today&#39;s regulatory climate.Alibaba stock valuationI will be using an EPS forecast model to determine a fair valuation of Alibaba stock. The model will be applied over 10 years, starting from 2021&#39;s EPS of 7.82. Before I do this, let me go over some of the metrics I will be using in my calculations.Metrics<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aee8ef6644c09c16436ffe9b15b5d329\" tg-width=\"350\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Assumptions used for EPS forecast model (Prepared by author)Projected annual change in shares outstandingI&#39;ve projected an average annual decrease of 1% in shares outstanding over the next 10 years. This is a reasonably conservative estimate, considering the magnitude of the share buyback program.Projected annual growth rateI&#39;ve projected an average annual growth rate of 15%, which seems to be a fairly conservative estimate considering the company&#39;s long-term earning potential.Minimum annual rate of returnI&#39;ve gone for a desired annual return of 12.5%, which beats the returns of a good <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSFF\">Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF</a> by a decent margin.Margin of safetyWhile Alibaba is a Chinese company that is generally exposed to more regulatory risk, I do believe that my previous assumptions are conservative enough and a 20% margin of safety is sufficient for this calculation.Projected P/EI&#39;ll be assuming a projected P/E of 20, which is, again, a fairly low value compared to the company&#39;s P/E over the years. We could very likely see a much higher P/E than this in the future, but once again, let&#39;s be conservative. For some reference, Alibaba&#39;s current P/E (at the time of writing) is about 28.Price target<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e60a2da9b185d8fe76a2b6a8e23a6704\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>EPS Forecast for Alibaba Stock (Prepared by author)Based on our relatively conservative assumptions, we&#39;ve arrived at a price target of $172.36. This means that if I were to invest in Alibaba at $172.36 a share, I would be getting an average annual return of 12.5% over 10 years. The current price of Alibaba stock sits at just above $110, and this shows that there is tremendous upside based on our current assumptions, which are already on the conservative side.ConclusionWhile Alibaba may face challenges in the future, I do believe that the company is on a great financial trajectory, and has tremendous upside in terms of its valuation. I conclude my analysis with a price target of $172.36, and a &#39;Strong Buy&#39; rating at today&#39;s valuation.</body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Stock: Tremendous Upside Potential</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Stock: Tremendous Upside Potential\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-23 11:52 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497070-alibaba-stock-tremendous-upside-potential>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummaryWith the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen a nice recovery.I believe that despite the possible risks, the stock has tremendous upside given ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497070-alibaba-stock-tremendous-upside-potential\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK1142":"互联网与直销零售","BK1591":"就地过年概念","BK4565":"NFT概念","BK1502":"双十一","BK1517":"云办公","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","BK1608":"元宇宙概念","BK1575":"同股不同权","BK1584":"蚂蚁金服概念","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","PDD":"拼多多","BK1501":"阿里概念股","BK4531":"中概回港概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BABA":"阿里巴巴","NYSE":"纽交所","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4558":"双十一","BK4575":"芯片概念","BK4509":"腾讯概念","BK1588":"回港中概股","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4501":"段永平概念","BK4538":"云计算","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4526":"热门中概股","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","BK4502":"阿里概念","BK1521":"挪威政府全球养老基金持仓","BK1586":"云计算","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497070-alibaba-stock-tremendous-upside-potential","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2221979490","content_text":"SummaryWith the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen a nice recovery.I believe that despite the possible risks, the stock has tremendous upside given the company's financial track record and future earning potential.I initiate coverage on Alibaba using a 10-year EPS forecast model, and give the stock a 'Strong Buy' rating at its current valuation.David Becker/Getty Images NewsAfter the Chinese government promised to stabilize markets and ease crackdowns, Chinese equities saw a huge recovery. Shares of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. ADR (NYSE:NYSE:BABA) rose from the depths of the low 70s to over $110 a share. I believe that the company still has tremendous upside from its current valuation due to its impressive financial track record over the years, and its ability to stay on track in the years to come. Despite an increase of over 50% from its recent low, the company is still undervalued.The crash and the recoveryShares of Alibaba Group sank to a terrifying low of $73.28 a share early last week, after the SEC announced its plans to delist five Chinese companies due to a lack of compliance with auditing requirements. Investors fled from Chinese equities, resulting in a massive plunge in their share prices. Alibaba was no exception, and its stock, which had already taken a beating over the past few weeks, sank to lows that haven't been seen in years. Yet, just when all hope seemed to be lost, the Chinese government stepped in to reassure investors that they would stabilize these turbulent markets, and potentially ease regulations so that Chinese companies can remain listed in overseas markets. The positive news which came mid last week triggered a near-vertical recovery in Chinese equities, whose share prices soared by double digits over the next few days. We now see Alibaba stock trading at over $110 a share, and I believe there's more upside to come.Impressive financialsTo understand how well Alibaba has been doing, let's go over a few financial metrics.Revenue growthAlibaba's revenue growth has remained in the double digits for the past few years. The company earned $182.51 billion HKD in revenue in 2017, and this number has grown to $820.2 billion HKD as of last year's annual report. This represents a net growth in revenue of almost 350% over those 5 years.Alibaba's e-commerce revenue growth (Statista)A quick look at their e-commerce revenue growth in domestic and international markets show that there has been a sustained uptrend in both departments over the past decade, and there is good reason to believe that revenue prospects for the company will remain strong in the years to come.Share buybackAlibaba has announced a massive $25 billion share buyback program, which came shortly after the Chinese government restored investors' faith in Chinese equities. The value of the buyback is almost 10% of the company's current market capitalization, which stands at about $280 billion. This is extremely significant, and represents a substantial growth in stake ownership for the company's shareholders. The fact that the company is financially able to buy back such a large amount of shares is also a good reflection of its ability to generate free cash flows.Earnings per shareAlibaba's diluted EPS has grown from 2.45 in 2017 to 7.82 in 2021, representing an approximate 219% increase over those 5 years. This is a good indication that the company has been greatly profitable over the years. As a result, it is able to distribute more of these profits to its shareholders.Free cash flow growthAlibaba has seen a massive increase in free cash flow, from $72.39 billion HKD in 2017 to $215.66 billion HKD in 2021, representing a near 200% growth over 5 years. This is a good sign that the company is managing its operating expenses and capital expenditures well. In addition, the free cash flow-to-long term debt ratio sits at 1.11 as of 2021, which shows that the company is more than able to pay off its financial obligations. These are very promising signs that the company is in very good financial health, and is at no risk whatsoever of going under.China's growing affluenceAnother important point is that Alibaba thrives in an increasingly affluent market. China's middle class has grown from about 3% of the population in 2000 to over 50% today, and the trend shows no clear signs of pulling back. Projections show that by 2030, most of China's urban households will be in the middle income bracket and above. With an increasingly affluent market to tap into, Alibaba is likely to see a significant and sustained increase in demand for its products. This would hugely benefit the company's financials and help it stay on its impressive trajectory.Potential risksWhile there's a lot to be positive about, there are some undeniable risks that need to be mentioned.Losing market shareWhile Alibaba remains largely dominant in the Chinese market, its market share in the e-commerce industry is starting to fall due to changing consumption habits and a rise in competition. One such competitor is Pinduoduo (NASDAQ:PDD), which has proven to be formidable in the e-commerce business with its innovative methods to appeal to commerce communities. This could present a challenge for Alibaba, and it is not certain whether the company is still able to retain its large market share in the years to come.Regulatory risksWhile the Chinese government has shown signs of regulatory easing, we should never get too comfortable. Regulations concerning Chinese companies are always unpredictable, and the future of Chinese equities still bears a great deal of uncertainty. In addition, the SEC is starting to clamp down harder on foreign companies which are not compliant with any of their auditing requirements. The risks which arise from both sides still exist, and one can never be too careful, especially in today's regulatory climate.Alibaba stock valuationI will be using an EPS forecast model to determine a fair valuation of Alibaba stock. The model will be applied over 10 years, starting from 2021's EPS of 7.82. Before I do this, let me go over some of the metrics I will be using in my calculations.MetricsAssumptions used for EPS forecast model (Prepared by author)Projected annual change in shares outstandingI've projected an average annual decrease of 1% in shares outstanding over the next 10 years. This is a reasonably conservative estimate, considering the magnitude of the share buyback program.Projected annual growth rateI've projected an average annual growth rate of 15%, which seems to be a fairly conservative estimate considering the company's long-term earning potential.Minimum annual rate of returnI've gone for a desired annual return of 12.5%, which beats the returns of a good Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF by a decent margin.Margin of safetyWhile Alibaba is a Chinese company that is generally exposed to more regulatory risk, I do believe that my previous assumptions are conservative enough and a 20% margin of safety is sufficient for this calculation.Projected P/EI'll be assuming a projected P/E of 20, which is, again, a fairly low value compared to the company's P/E over the years. We could very likely see a much higher P/E than this in the future, but once again, let's be conservative. For some reference, Alibaba's current P/E (at the time of writing) is about 28.Price targetEPS Forecast for Alibaba Stock (Prepared by author)Based on our relatively conservative assumptions, we've arrived at a price target of $172.36. This means that if I were to invest in Alibaba at $172.36 a share, I would be getting an average annual return of 12.5% over 10 years. The current price of Alibaba stock sits at just above $110, and this shows that there is tremendous upside based on our current assumptions, which are already on the conservative side.ConclusionWhile Alibaba may face challenges in the future, I do believe that the company is on a great financial trajectory, and has tremendous upside in terms of its valuation. I conclude my analysis with a price target of $172.36, and a 'Strong Buy' rating at today's valuation.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9037953667,"gmtCreate":1648011105813,"gmtModify":1676534292800,"author":{"id":"4100325483048030","authorId":"4100325483048030","name":"Chris Tan","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/234d0c8219838a66f0165bcb29277534","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4100325483048030","authorIdStr":"4100325483048030"},"htmlText":"🌟🌟🌟🌟🌟","listText":"🌟🌟🌟🌟🌟","text":"🌟🌟🌟🌟🌟","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9037953667","repostId":2221979490,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2221979490","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1648007579,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2221979490?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-23 11:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Stock: Tremendous Upside Potential","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2221979490","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryWith the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen","content":"<html><head></head><body>Summary<ul><li>With the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen a nice recovery.</li><li>I believe that despite the possible risks, the stock has tremendous upside given the company&#39;s financial track record and future earning potential.</li><li>I initiate coverage on Alibaba using a 10-year EPS forecast model, and give the stock a &#39;Strong Buy&#39; rating at its current valuation.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c7e5ba4a836568115de5c2d8498356e\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"469\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>David Becker/Getty Images NewsAfter the Chinese government promised to stabilize markets and ease crackdowns, Chinese equities saw a huge recovery. Shares of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. ADR (NYSE:NYSE:BABA) rose from the depths of the low 70s to over $110 a share. I believe that the company still has tremendous upside from its current valuation due to its impressive financial track record over the years, and its ability to stay on track in the years to come. Despite an increase of over 50% from its recent low, the company is still undervalued.The crash and the recoveryShares of Alibaba Group sank to a terrifying low of $73.28 a share early last week, after the SEC announced its plans to delist five Chinese companies due to a lack of compliance with auditing requirements. Investors fled from Chinese equities, resulting in a massive plunge in their share prices. Alibaba was no exception, and its stock, which had already taken a beating over the past few weeks, sank to lows that haven&#39;t been seen in years. Yet, just when all hope seemed to be lost, the Chinese government stepped in to reassure investors that they would stabilize these turbulent markets, and potentially ease regulations so that Chinese companies can remain listed in overseas markets. The positive news which came mid last week triggered a near-vertical recovery in Chinese equities, whose share prices soared by double digits over the next few days. We now see Alibaba stock trading at over $110 a share, and I believe there&#39;s more upside to come.Impressive financialsTo understand how well Alibaba has been doing, let&#39;s go over a few financial metrics.Revenue growthAlibaba&#39;s revenue growth has remained in the double digits for the past few years. The company earned $182.51 billion HKD in revenue in 2017, and this number has grown to $820.2 billion HKD as of last year&#39;s annual report. This represents a net growth in revenue of almost 350% over those 5 years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c02fbb86072d4364834fb5dff4c85880\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"476\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Alibaba&#39;s e-commerce revenue growth (Statista)A quick look at their e-commerce revenue growth in domestic and international markets show that there has been a sustained uptrend in both departments over the past decade, and there is good reason to believe that revenue prospects for the company will remain strong in the years to come.Share buybackAlibaba has announced a massive $25 billion share buyback program, which came shortly after the Chinese government restored investors&#39; faith in Chinese equities. The value of the buyback is almost 10% of the company&#39;s current market capitalization, which stands at about $280 billion. This is extremely significant, and represents a substantial growth in stake ownership for the company&#39;s shareholders. The fact that the company is financially able to buy back such a large amount of shares is also a good reflection of its ability to generate free cash flows.Earnings per shareAlibaba&#39;s diluted EPS has grown from 2.45 in 2017 to 7.82 in 2021, representing an approximate 219% increase over those 5 years. This is a good indication that the company has been greatly profitable over the years. As a result, it is able to distribute more of these profits to its shareholders.Free cash flow growthAlibaba has seen a massive increase in free cash flow, from $72.39 billion HKD in 2017 to $215.66 billion HKD in 2021, representing a near 200% growth over 5 years. This is a good sign that the company is managing its operating expenses and capital expenditures well. In addition, the free cash flow-to-long term debt ratio sits at 1.11 as of 2021, which shows that the company is more than able to pay off its financial obligations. These are very promising signs that the company is in very good financial health, and is at no risk whatsoever of going under.China&#39;s growing affluenceAnother important point is that Alibaba thrives in an increasingly affluent market. China&#39;s middle class has grown from about 3% of the population in 2000 to over 50% today, and the trend shows no clear signs of pulling back. Projections show that by 2030, most of China&#39;s urban households will be in the middle income bracket and above. With an increasingly affluent market to tap into, Alibaba is likely to see a significant and sustained increase in demand for its products. This would hugely benefit the company&#39;s financials and help it stay on its impressive trajectory.Potential risksWhile there&#39;s a lot to be positive about, there are some undeniable risks that need to be mentioned.Losing market shareWhile Alibaba remains largely dominant in the Chinese market, its market share in the e-commerce industry is starting to fall due to changing consumption habits and a rise in competition. One such competitor is Pinduoduo (NASDAQ:PDD), which has proven to be formidable in the e-commerce business with its innovative methods to appeal to commerce communities. This could present a challenge for Alibaba, and it is not certain whether the company is still able to retain its large market share in the years to come.Regulatory risksWhile the Chinese government has shown signs of regulatory easing, we should never get too comfortable. Regulations concerning Chinese companies are always unpredictable, and the future of Chinese equities still bears a great deal of uncertainty. In addition, the SEC is starting to clamp down harder on foreign companies which are not compliant with any of their auditing requirements. The risks which arise from both sides still exist, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> can never be too careful, especially in today&#39;s regulatory climate.Alibaba stock valuationI will be using an EPS forecast model to determine a fair valuation of Alibaba stock. The model will be applied over 10 years, starting from 2021&#39;s EPS of 7.82. Before I do this, let me go over some of the metrics I will be using in my calculations.Metrics<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aee8ef6644c09c16436ffe9b15b5d329\" tg-width=\"350\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Assumptions used for EPS forecast model (Prepared by author)Projected annual change in shares outstandingI&#39;ve projected an average annual decrease of 1% in shares outstanding over the next 10 years. This is a reasonably conservative estimate, considering the magnitude of the share buyback program.Projected annual growth rateI&#39;ve projected an average annual growth rate of 15%, which seems to be a fairly conservative estimate considering the company&#39;s long-term earning potential.Minimum annual rate of returnI&#39;ve gone for a desired annual return of 12.5%, which beats the returns of a good <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSFF\">Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF</a> by a decent margin.Margin of safetyWhile Alibaba is a Chinese company that is generally exposed to more regulatory risk, I do believe that my previous assumptions are conservative enough and a 20% margin of safety is sufficient for this calculation.Projected P/EI&#39;ll be assuming a projected P/E of 20, which is, again, a fairly low value compared to the company&#39;s P/E over the years. We could very likely see a much higher P/E than this in the future, but once again, let&#39;s be conservative. For some reference, Alibaba&#39;s current P/E (at the time of writing) is about 28.Price target<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e60a2da9b185d8fe76a2b6a8e23a6704\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>EPS Forecast for Alibaba Stock (Prepared by author)Based on our relatively conservative assumptions, we&#39;ve arrived at a price target of $172.36. This means that if I were to invest in Alibaba at $172.36 a share, I would be getting an average annual return of 12.5% over 10 years. The current price of Alibaba stock sits at just above $110, and this shows that there is tremendous upside based on our current assumptions, which are already on the conservative side.ConclusionWhile Alibaba may face challenges in the future, I do believe that the company is on a great financial trajectory, and has tremendous upside in terms of its valuation. I conclude my analysis with a price target of $172.36, and a &#39;Strong Buy&#39; rating at today&#39;s valuation.</body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Stock: Tremendous Upside Potential</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Stock: Tremendous Upside Potential\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-23 11:52 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497070-alibaba-stock-tremendous-upside-potential>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummaryWith the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen a nice recovery.I believe that despite the possible risks, the stock has tremendous upside given ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497070-alibaba-stock-tremendous-upside-potential\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK1142":"互联网与直销零售","BK1591":"就地过年概念","BK4565":"NFT概念","BK1502":"双十一","BK1517":"云办公","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","BK1608":"元宇宙概念","BK1575":"同股不同权","BK1584":"蚂蚁金服概念","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","PDD":"拼多多","BK1501":"阿里概念股","BK4531":"中概回港概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BABA":"阿里巴巴","NYSE":"纽交所","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4558":"双十一","BK4575":"芯片概念","BK4509":"腾讯概念","BK1588":"回港中概股","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4501":"段永平概念","BK4538":"云计算","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4526":"热门中概股","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","BK4502":"阿里概念","BK1521":"挪威政府全球养老基金持仓","BK1586":"云计算","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497070-alibaba-stock-tremendous-upside-potential","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2221979490","content_text":"SummaryWith the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen a nice recovery.I believe that despite the possible risks, the stock has tremendous upside given the company's financial track record and future earning potential.I initiate coverage on Alibaba using a 10-year EPS forecast model, and give the stock a 'Strong Buy' rating at its current valuation.David Becker/Getty Images NewsAfter the Chinese government promised to stabilize markets and ease crackdowns, Chinese equities saw a huge recovery. Shares of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. ADR (NYSE:NYSE:BABA) rose from the depths of the low 70s to over $110 a share. I believe that the company still has tremendous upside from its current valuation due to its impressive financial track record over the years, and its ability to stay on track in the years to come. Despite an increase of over 50% from its recent low, the company is still undervalued.The crash and the recoveryShares of Alibaba Group sank to a terrifying low of $73.28 a share early last week, after the SEC announced its plans to delist five Chinese companies due to a lack of compliance with auditing requirements. Investors fled from Chinese equities, resulting in a massive plunge in their share prices. Alibaba was no exception, and its stock, which had already taken a beating over the past few weeks, sank to lows that haven't been seen in years. Yet, just when all hope seemed to be lost, the Chinese government stepped in to reassure investors that they would stabilize these turbulent markets, and potentially ease regulations so that Chinese companies can remain listed in overseas markets. The positive news which came mid last week triggered a near-vertical recovery in Chinese equities, whose share prices soared by double digits over the next few days. We now see Alibaba stock trading at over $110 a share, and I believe there's more upside to come.Impressive financialsTo understand how well Alibaba has been doing, let's go over a few financial metrics.Revenue growthAlibaba's revenue growth has remained in the double digits for the past few years. The company earned $182.51 billion HKD in revenue in 2017, and this number has grown to $820.2 billion HKD as of last year's annual report. This represents a net growth in revenue of almost 350% over those 5 years.Alibaba's e-commerce revenue growth (Statista)A quick look at their e-commerce revenue growth in domestic and international markets show that there has been a sustained uptrend in both departments over the past decade, and there is good reason to believe that revenue prospects for the company will remain strong in the years to come.Share buybackAlibaba has announced a massive $25 billion share buyback program, which came shortly after the Chinese government restored investors' faith in Chinese equities. The value of the buyback is almost 10% of the company's current market capitalization, which stands at about $280 billion. This is extremely significant, and represents a substantial growth in stake ownership for the company's shareholders. The fact that the company is financially able to buy back such a large amount of shares is also a good reflection of its ability to generate free cash flows.Earnings per shareAlibaba's diluted EPS has grown from 2.45 in 2017 to 7.82 in 2021, representing an approximate 219% increase over those 5 years. This is a good indication that the company has been greatly profitable over the years. As a result, it is able to distribute more of these profits to its shareholders.Free cash flow growthAlibaba has seen a massive increase in free cash flow, from $72.39 billion HKD in 2017 to $215.66 billion HKD in 2021, representing a near 200% growth over 5 years. This is a good sign that the company is managing its operating expenses and capital expenditures well. In addition, the free cash flow-to-long term debt ratio sits at 1.11 as of 2021, which shows that the company is more than able to pay off its financial obligations. These are very promising signs that the company is in very good financial health, and is at no risk whatsoever of going under.China's growing affluenceAnother important point is that Alibaba thrives in an increasingly affluent market. China's middle class has grown from about 3% of the population in 2000 to over 50% today, and the trend shows no clear signs of pulling back. Projections show that by 2030, most of China's urban households will be in the middle income bracket and above. With an increasingly affluent market to tap into, Alibaba is likely to see a significant and sustained increase in demand for its products. This would hugely benefit the company's financials and help it stay on its impressive trajectory.Potential risksWhile there's a lot to be positive about, there are some undeniable risks that need to be mentioned.Losing market shareWhile Alibaba remains largely dominant in the Chinese market, its market share in the e-commerce industry is starting to fall due to changing consumption habits and a rise in competition. One such competitor is Pinduoduo (NASDAQ:PDD), which has proven to be formidable in the e-commerce business with its innovative methods to appeal to commerce communities. This could present a challenge for Alibaba, and it is not certain whether the company is still able to retain its large market share in the years to come.Regulatory risksWhile the Chinese government has shown signs of regulatory easing, we should never get too comfortable. Regulations concerning Chinese companies are always unpredictable, and the future of Chinese equities still bears a great deal of uncertainty. In addition, the SEC is starting to clamp down harder on foreign companies which are not compliant with any of their auditing requirements. The risks which arise from both sides still exist, and one can never be too careful, especially in today's regulatory climate.Alibaba stock valuationI will be using an EPS forecast model to determine a fair valuation of Alibaba stock. The model will be applied over 10 years, starting from 2021's EPS of 7.82. Before I do this, let me go over some of the metrics I will be using in my calculations.MetricsAssumptions used for EPS forecast model (Prepared by author)Projected annual change in shares outstandingI've projected an average annual decrease of 1% in shares outstanding over the next 10 years. This is a reasonably conservative estimate, considering the magnitude of the share buyback program.Projected annual growth rateI've projected an average annual growth rate of 15%, which seems to be a fairly conservative estimate considering the company's long-term earning potential.Minimum annual rate of returnI've gone for a desired annual return of 12.5%, which beats the returns of a good Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF by a decent margin.Margin of safetyWhile Alibaba is a Chinese company that is generally exposed to more regulatory risk, I do believe that my previous assumptions are conservative enough and a 20% margin of safety is sufficient for this calculation.Projected P/EI'll be assuming a projected P/E of 20, which is, again, a fairly low value compared to the company's P/E over the years. We could very likely see a much higher P/E than this in the future, but once again, let's be conservative. For some reference, Alibaba's current P/E (at the time of writing) is about 28.Price targetEPS Forecast for Alibaba Stock (Prepared by author)Based on our relatively conservative assumptions, we've arrived at a price target of $172.36. This means that if I were to invest in Alibaba at $172.36 a share, I would be getting an average annual return of 12.5% over 10 years. The current price of Alibaba stock sits at just above $110, and this shows that there is tremendous upside based on our current assumptions, which are already on the conservative side.ConclusionWhile Alibaba may face challenges in the future, I do believe that the company is on a great financial trajectory, and has tremendous upside in terms of its valuation. I conclude my analysis with a price target of $172.36, and a 'Strong Buy' rating at today's valuation.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9037950606,"gmtCreate":1648010769221,"gmtModify":1676534292751,"author":{"id":"3554893275482082","authorId":"3554893275482082","name":"xiaojn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d013f63de4e09aaf06a8ae8cf90aeb8","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3554893275482082","authorIdStr":"3554893275482082"},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9037950606","repostId":2221979490,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2221979490","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1648007579,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2221979490?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-23 11:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Stock: Tremendous Upside Potential","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2221979490","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryWith the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen","content":"<html><head></head><body>Summary<ul><li>With the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen a nice recovery.</li><li>I believe that despite the possible risks, the stock has tremendous upside given the company&#39;s financial track record and future earning potential.</li><li>I initiate coverage on Alibaba using a 10-year EPS forecast model, and give the stock a &#39;Strong Buy&#39; rating at its current valuation.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c7e5ba4a836568115de5c2d8498356e\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"469\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>David Becker/Getty Images NewsAfter the Chinese government promised to stabilize markets and ease crackdowns, Chinese equities saw a huge recovery. Shares of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. ADR (NYSE:NYSE:BABA) rose from the depths of the low 70s to over $110 a share. I believe that the company still has tremendous upside from its current valuation due to its impressive financial track record over the years, and its ability to stay on track in the years to come. Despite an increase of over 50% from its recent low, the company is still undervalued.The crash and the recoveryShares of Alibaba Group sank to a terrifying low of $73.28 a share early last week, after the SEC announced its plans to delist five Chinese companies due to a lack of compliance with auditing requirements. Investors fled from Chinese equities, resulting in a massive plunge in their share prices. Alibaba was no exception, and its stock, which had already taken a beating over the past few weeks, sank to lows that haven&#39;t been seen in years. Yet, just when all hope seemed to be lost, the Chinese government stepped in to reassure investors that they would stabilize these turbulent markets, and potentially ease regulations so that Chinese companies can remain listed in overseas markets. The positive news which came mid last week triggered a near-vertical recovery in Chinese equities, whose share prices soared by double digits over the next few days. We now see Alibaba stock trading at over $110 a share, and I believe there&#39;s more upside to come.Impressive financialsTo understand how well Alibaba has been doing, let&#39;s go over a few financial metrics.Revenue growthAlibaba&#39;s revenue growth has remained in the double digits for the past few years. The company earned $182.51 billion HKD in revenue in 2017, and this number has grown to $820.2 billion HKD as of last year&#39;s annual report. This represents a net growth in revenue of almost 350% over those 5 years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c02fbb86072d4364834fb5dff4c85880\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"476\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Alibaba&#39;s e-commerce revenue growth (Statista)A quick look at their e-commerce revenue growth in domestic and international markets show that there has been a sustained uptrend in both departments over the past decade, and there is good reason to believe that revenue prospects for the company will remain strong in the years to come.Share buybackAlibaba has announced a massive $25 billion share buyback program, which came shortly after the Chinese government restored investors&#39; faith in Chinese equities. The value of the buyback is almost 10% of the company&#39;s current market capitalization, which stands at about $280 billion. This is extremely significant, and represents a substantial growth in stake ownership for the company&#39;s shareholders. The fact that the company is financially able to buy back such a large amount of shares is also a good reflection of its ability to generate free cash flows.Earnings per shareAlibaba&#39;s diluted EPS has grown from 2.45 in 2017 to 7.82 in 2021, representing an approximate 219% increase over those 5 years. This is a good indication that the company has been greatly profitable over the years. As a result, it is able to distribute more of these profits to its shareholders.Free cash flow growthAlibaba has seen a massive increase in free cash flow, from $72.39 billion HKD in 2017 to $215.66 billion HKD in 2021, representing a near 200% growth over 5 years. This is a good sign that the company is managing its operating expenses and capital expenditures well. In addition, the free cash flow-to-long term debt ratio sits at 1.11 as of 2021, which shows that the company is more than able to pay off its financial obligations. These are very promising signs that the company is in very good financial health, and is at no risk whatsoever of going under.China&#39;s growing affluenceAnother important point is that Alibaba thrives in an increasingly affluent market. China&#39;s middle class has grown from about 3% of the population in 2000 to over 50% today, and the trend shows no clear signs of pulling back. Projections show that by 2030, most of China&#39;s urban households will be in the middle income bracket and above. With an increasingly affluent market to tap into, Alibaba is likely to see a significant and sustained increase in demand for its products. This would hugely benefit the company&#39;s financials and help it stay on its impressive trajectory.Potential risksWhile there&#39;s a lot to be positive about, there are some undeniable risks that need to be mentioned.Losing market shareWhile Alibaba remains largely dominant in the Chinese market, its market share in the e-commerce industry is starting to fall due to changing consumption habits and a rise in competition. One such competitor is Pinduoduo (NASDAQ:PDD), which has proven to be formidable in the e-commerce business with its innovative methods to appeal to commerce communities. This could present a challenge for Alibaba, and it is not certain whether the company is still able to retain its large market share in the years to come.Regulatory risksWhile the Chinese government has shown signs of regulatory easing, we should never get too comfortable. Regulations concerning Chinese companies are always unpredictable, and the future of Chinese equities still bears a great deal of uncertainty. In addition, the SEC is starting to clamp down harder on foreign companies which are not compliant with any of their auditing requirements. The risks which arise from both sides still exist, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> can never be too careful, especially in today&#39;s regulatory climate.Alibaba stock valuationI will be using an EPS forecast model to determine a fair valuation of Alibaba stock. The model will be applied over 10 years, starting from 2021&#39;s EPS of 7.82. Before I do this, let me go over some of the metrics I will be using in my calculations.Metrics<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aee8ef6644c09c16436ffe9b15b5d329\" tg-width=\"350\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Assumptions used for EPS forecast model (Prepared by author)Projected annual change in shares outstandingI&#39;ve projected an average annual decrease of 1% in shares outstanding over the next 10 years. This is a reasonably conservative estimate, considering the magnitude of the share buyback program.Projected annual growth rateI&#39;ve projected an average annual growth rate of 15%, which seems to be a fairly conservative estimate considering the company&#39;s long-term earning potential.Minimum annual rate of returnI&#39;ve gone for a desired annual return of 12.5%, which beats the returns of a good <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSFF\">Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF</a> by a decent margin.Margin of safetyWhile Alibaba is a Chinese company that is generally exposed to more regulatory risk, I do believe that my previous assumptions are conservative enough and a 20% margin of safety is sufficient for this calculation.Projected P/EI&#39;ll be assuming a projected P/E of 20, which is, again, a fairly low value compared to the company&#39;s P/E over the years. We could very likely see a much higher P/E than this in the future, but once again, let&#39;s be conservative. For some reference, Alibaba&#39;s current P/E (at the time of writing) is about 28.Price target<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e60a2da9b185d8fe76a2b6a8e23a6704\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>EPS Forecast for Alibaba Stock (Prepared by author)Based on our relatively conservative assumptions, we&#39;ve arrived at a price target of $172.36. This means that if I were to invest in Alibaba at $172.36 a share, I would be getting an average annual return of 12.5% over 10 years. The current price of Alibaba stock sits at just above $110, and this shows that there is tremendous upside based on our current assumptions, which are already on the conservative side.ConclusionWhile Alibaba may face challenges in the future, I do believe that the company is on a great financial trajectory, and has tremendous upside in terms of its valuation. I conclude my analysis with a price target of $172.36, and a &#39;Strong Buy&#39; rating at today&#39;s valuation.</body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Stock: Tremendous Upside Potential</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Stock: Tremendous Upside Potential\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-23 11:52 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497070-alibaba-stock-tremendous-upside-potential>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummaryWith the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen a nice recovery.I believe that despite the possible risks, the stock has tremendous upside given ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497070-alibaba-stock-tremendous-upside-potential\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK1142":"互联网与直销零售","BK1591":"就地过年概念","BK4565":"NFT概念","BK1502":"双十一","BK1517":"云办公","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","BK1608":"元宇宙概念","BK1575":"同股不同权","BK1584":"蚂蚁金服概念","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","PDD":"拼多多","BK1501":"阿里概念股","BK4531":"中概回港概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BABA":"阿里巴巴","NYSE":"纽交所","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4558":"双十一","BK4575":"芯片概念","BK4509":"腾讯概念","BK1588":"回港中概股","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4501":"段永平概念","BK4538":"云计算","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4526":"热门中概股","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","BK4502":"阿里概念","BK1521":"挪威政府全球养老基金持仓","BK1586":"云计算","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497070-alibaba-stock-tremendous-upside-potential","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2221979490","content_text":"SummaryWith the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen a nice recovery.I believe that despite the possible risks, the stock has tremendous upside given the company's financial track record and future earning potential.I initiate coverage on Alibaba using a 10-year EPS forecast model, and give the stock a 'Strong Buy' rating at its current valuation.David Becker/Getty Images NewsAfter the Chinese government promised to stabilize markets and ease crackdowns, Chinese equities saw a huge recovery. Shares of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. ADR (NYSE:NYSE:BABA) rose from the depths of the low 70s to over $110 a share. I believe that the company still has tremendous upside from its current valuation due to its impressive financial track record over the years, and its ability to stay on track in the years to come. Despite an increase of over 50% from its recent low, the company is still undervalued.The crash and the recoveryShares of Alibaba Group sank to a terrifying low of $73.28 a share early last week, after the SEC announced its plans to delist five Chinese companies due to a lack of compliance with auditing requirements. Investors fled from Chinese equities, resulting in a massive plunge in their share prices. Alibaba was no exception, and its stock, which had already taken a beating over the past few weeks, sank to lows that haven't been seen in years. Yet, just when all hope seemed to be lost, the Chinese government stepped in to reassure investors that they would stabilize these turbulent markets, and potentially ease regulations so that Chinese companies can remain listed in overseas markets. The positive news which came mid last week triggered a near-vertical recovery in Chinese equities, whose share prices soared by double digits over the next few days. We now see Alibaba stock trading at over $110 a share, and I believe there's more upside to come.Impressive financialsTo understand how well Alibaba has been doing, let's go over a few financial metrics.Revenue growthAlibaba's revenue growth has remained in the double digits for the past few years. The company earned $182.51 billion HKD in revenue in 2017, and this number has grown to $820.2 billion HKD as of last year's annual report. This represents a net growth in revenue of almost 350% over those 5 years.Alibaba's e-commerce revenue growth (Statista)A quick look at their e-commerce revenue growth in domestic and international markets show that there has been a sustained uptrend in both departments over the past decade, and there is good reason to believe that revenue prospects for the company will remain strong in the years to come.Share buybackAlibaba has announced a massive $25 billion share buyback program, which came shortly after the Chinese government restored investors' faith in Chinese equities. The value of the buyback is almost 10% of the company's current market capitalization, which stands at about $280 billion. This is extremely significant, and represents a substantial growth in stake ownership for the company's shareholders. The fact that the company is financially able to buy back such a large amount of shares is also a good reflection of its ability to generate free cash flows.Earnings per shareAlibaba's diluted EPS has grown from 2.45 in 2017 to 7.82 in 2021, representing an approximate 219% increase over those 5 years. This is a good indication that the company has been greatly profitable over the years. As a result, it is able to distribute more of these profits to its shareholders.Free cash flow growthAlibaba has seen a massive increase in free cash flow, from $72.39 billion HKD in 2017 to $215.66 billion HKD in 2021, representing a near 200% growth over 5 years. This is a good sign that the company is managing its operating expenses and capital expenditures well. In addition, the free cash flow-to-long term debt ratio sits at 1.11 as of 2021, which shows that the company is more than able to pay off its financial obligations. These are very promising signs that the company is in very good financial health, and is at no risk whatsoever of going under.China's growing affluenceAnother important point is that Alibaba thrives in an increasingly affluent market. China's middle class has grown from about 3% of the population in 2000 to over 50% today, and the trend shows no clear signs of pulling back. Projections show that by 2030, most of China's urban households will be in the middle income bracket and above. With an increasingly affluent market to tap into, Alibaba is likely to see a significant and sustained increase in demand for its products. This would hugely benefit the company's financials and help it stay on its impressive trajectory.Potential risksWhile there's a lot to be positive about, there are some undeniable risks that need to be mentioned.Losing market shareWhile Alibaba remains largely dominant in the Chinese market, its market share in the e-commerce industry is starting to fall due to changing consumption habits and a rise in competition. One such competitor is Pinduoduo (NASDAQ:PDD), which has proven to be formidable in the e-commerce business with its innovative methods to appeal to commerce communities. This could present a challenge for Alibaba, and it is not certain whether the company is still able to retain its large market share in the years to come.Regulatory risksWhile the Chinese government has shown signs of regulatory easing, we should never get too comfortable. Regulations concerning Chinese companies are always unpredictable, and the future of Chinese equities still bears a great deal of uncertainty. In addition, the SEC is starting to clamp down harder on foreign companies which are not compliant with any of their auditing requirements. The risks which arise from both sides still exist, and one can never be too careful, especially in today's regulatory climate.Alibaba stock valuationI will be using an EPS forecast model to determine a fair valuation of Alibaba stock. The model will be applied over 10 years, starting from 2021's EPS of 7.82. Before I do this, let me go over some of the metrics I will be using in my calculations.MetricsAssumptions used for EPS forecast model (Prepared by author)Projected annual change in shares outstandingI've projected an average annual decrease of 1% in shares outstanding over the next 10 years. This is a reasonably conservative estimate, considering the magnitude of the share buyback program.Projected annual growth rateI've projected an average annual growth rate of 15%, which seems to be a fairly conservative estimate considering the company's long-term earning potential.Minimum annual rate of returnI've gone for a desired annual return of 12.5%, which beats the returns of a good Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF by a decent margin.Margin of safetyWhile Alibaba is a Chinese company that is generally exposed to more regulatory risk, I do believe that my previous assumptions are conservative enough and a 20% margin of safety is sufficient for this calculation.Projected P/EI'll be assuming a projected P/E of 20, which is, again, a fairly low value compared to the company's P/E over the years. We could very likely see a much higher P/E than this in the future, but once again, let's be conservative. For some reference, Alibaba's current P/E (at the time of writing) is about 28.Price targetEPS Forecast for Alibaba Stock (Prepared by author)Based on our relatively conservative assumptions, we've arrived at a price target of $172.36. This means that if I were to invest in Alibaba at $172.36 a share, I would be getting an average annual return of 12.5% over 10 years. The current price of Alibaba stock sits at just above $110, and this shows that there is tremendous upside based on our current assumptions, which are already on the conservative side.ConclusionWhile Alibaba may face challenges in the future, I do believe that the company is on a great financial trajectory, and has tremendous upside in terms of its valuation. I conclude my analysis with a price target of $172.36, and a 'Strong Buy' rating at today's valuation.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9037924156,"gmtCreate":1648010104041,"gmtModify":1676534292704,"author":{"id":"3574939149444540","authorId":"3574939149444540","name":"zolluA","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f8d93c1ba9f0a0ae56af713df14b69f","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574939149444540","authorIdStr":"3574939149444540"},"htmlText":"BABA reversal&nbsp;","listText":"BABA reversal&nbsp;","text":"BABA reversal","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9037924156","repostId":2221979490,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2221979490","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1648007579,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2221979490?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-23 11:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Stock: Tremendous Upside Potential","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2221979490","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryWith the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen","content":"<html><head></head><body>Summary<ul><li>With the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen a nice recovery.</li><li>I believe that despite the possible risks, the stock has tremendous upside given the company&#39;s financial track record and future earning potential.</li><li>I initiate coverage on Alibaba using a 10-year EPS forecast model, and give the stock a &#39;Strong Buy&#39; rating at its current valuation.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c7e5ba4a836568115de5c2d8498356e\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"469\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>David Becker/Getty Images NewsAfter the Chinese government promised to stabilize markets and ease crackdowns, Chinese equities saw a huge recovery. Shares of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. ADR (NYSE:NYSE:BABA) rose from the depths of the low 70s to over $110 a share. I believe that the company still has tremendous upside from its current valuation due to its impressive financial track record over the years, and its ability to stay on track in the years to come. Despite an increase of over 50% from its recent low, the company is still undervalued.The crash and the recoveryShares of Alibaba Group sank to a terrifying low of $73.28 a share early last week, after the SEC announced its plans to delist five Chinese companies due to a lack of compliance with auditing requirements. Investors fled from Chinese equities, resulting in a massive plunge in their share prices. Alibaba was no exception, and its stock, which had already taken a beating over the past few weeks, sank to lows that haven&#39;t been seen in years. Yet, just when all hope seemed to be lost, the Chinese government stepped in to reassure investors that they would stabilize these turbulent markets, and potentially ease regulations so that Chinese companies can remain listed in overseas markets. The positive news which came mid last week triggered a near-vertical recovery in Chinese equities, whose share prices soared by double digits over the next few days. We now see Alibaba stock trading at over $110 a share, and I believe there&#39;s more upside to come.Impressive financialsTo understand how well Alibaba has been doing, let&#39;s go over a few financial metrics.Revenue growthAlibaba&#39;s revenue growth has remained in the double digits for the past few years. The company earned $182.51 billion HKD in revenue in 2017, and this number has grown to $820.2 billion HKD as of last year&#39;s annual report. This represents a net growth in revenue of almost 350% over those 5 years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c02fbb86072d4364834fb5dff4c85880\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"476\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Alibaba&#39;s e-commerce revenue growth (Statista)A quick look at their e-commerce revenue growth in domestic and international markets show that there has been a sustained uptrend in both departments over the past decade, and there is good reason to believe that revenue prospects for the company will remain strong in the years to come.Share buybackAlibaba has announced a massive $25 billion share buyback program, which came shortly after the Chinese government restored investors&#39; faith in Chinese equities. The value of the buyback is almost 10% of the company&#39;s current market capitalization, which stands at about $280 billion. This is extremely significant, and represents a substantial growth in stake ownership for the company&#39;s shareholders. The fact that the company is financially able to buy back such a large amount of shares is also a good reflection of its ability to generate free cash flows.Earnings per shareAlibaba&#39;s diluted EPS has grown from 2.45 in 2017 to 7.82 in 2021, representing an approximate 219% increase over those 5 years. This is a good indication that the company has been greatly profitable over the years. As a result, it is able to distribute more of these profits to its shareholders.Free cash flow growthAlibaba has seen a massive increase in free cash flow, from $72.39 billion HKD in 2017 to $215.66 billion HKD in 2021, representing a near 200% growth over 5 years. This is a good sign that the company is managing its operating expenses and capital expenditures well. In addition, the free cash flow-to-long term debt ratio sits at 1.11 as of 2021, which shows that the company is more than able to pay off its financial obligations. These are very promising signs that the company is in very good financial health, and is at no risk whatsoever of going under.China&#39;s growing affluenceAnother important point is that Alibaba thrives in an increasingly affluent market. China&#39;s middle class has grown from about 3% of the population in 2000 to over 50% today, and the trend shows no clear signs of pulling back. Projections show that by 2030, most of China&#39;s urban households will be in the middle income bracket and above. With an increasingly affluent market to tap into, Alibaba is likely to see a significant and sustained increase in demand for its products. This would hugely benefit the company&#39;s financials and help it stay on its impressive trajectory.Potential risksWhile there&#39;s a lot to be positive about, there are some undeniable risks that need to be mentioned.Losing market shareWhile Alibaba remains largely dominant in the Chinese market, its market share in the e-commerce industry is starting to fall due to changing consumption habits and a rise in competition. One such competitor is Pinduoduo (NASDAQ:PDD), which has proven to be formidable in the e-commerce business with its innovative methods to appeal to commerce communities. This could present a challenge for Alibaba, and it is not certain whether the company is still able to retain its large market share in the years to come.Regulatory risksWhile the Chinese government has shown signs of regulatory easing, we should never get too comfortable. Regulations concerning Chinese companies are always unpredictable, and the future of Chinese equities still bears a great deal of uncertainty. In addition, the SEC is starting to clamp down harder on foreign companies which are not compliant with any of their auditing requirements. The risks which arise from both sides still exist, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> can never be too careful, especially in today&#39;s regulatory climate.Alibaba stock valuationI will be using an EPS forecast model to determine a fair valuation of Alibaba stock. The model will be applied over 10 years, starting from 2021&#39;s EPS of 7.82. Before I do this, let me go over some of the metrics I will be using in my calculations.Metrics<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aee8ef6644c09c16436ffe9b15b5d329\" tg-width=\"350\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Assumptions used for EPS forecast model (Prepared by author)Projected annual change in shares outstandingI&#39;ve projected an average annual decrease of 1% in shares outstanding over the next 10 years. This is a reasonably conservative estimate, considering the magnitude of the share buyback program.Projected annual growth rateI&#39;ve projected an average annual growth rate of 15%, which seems to be a fairly conservative estimate considering the company&#39;s long-term earning potential.Minimum annual rate of returnI&#39;ve gone for a desired annual return of 12.5%, which beats the returns of a good <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSFF\">Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF</a> by a decent margin.Margin of safetyWhile Alibaba is a Chinese company that is generally exposed to more regulatory risk, I do believe that my previous assumptions are conservative enough and a 20% margin of safety is sufficient for this calculation.Projected P/EI&#39;ll be assuming a projected P/E of 20, which is, again, a fairly low value compared to the company&#39;s P/E over the years. We could very likely see a much higher P/E than this in the future, but once again, let&#39;s be conservative. For some reference, Alibaba&#39;s current P/E (at the time of writing) is about 28.Price target<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e60a2da9b185d8fe76a2b6a8e23a6704\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>EPS Forecast for Alibaba Stock (Prepared by author)Based on our relatively conservative assumptions, we&#39;ve arrived at a price target of $172.36. This means that if I were to invest in Alibaba at $172.36 a share, I would be getting an average annual return of 12.5% over 10 years. The current price of Alibaba stock sits at just above $110, and this shows that there is tremendous upside based on our current assumptions, which are already on the conservative side.ConclusionWhile Alibaba may face challenges in the future, I do believe that the company is on a great financial trajectory, and has tremendous upside in terms of its valuation. I conclude my analysis with a price target of $172.36, and a &#39;Strong Buy&#39; rating at today&#39;s valuation.</body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Stock: Tremendous Upside Potential</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Stock: Tremendous Upside Potential\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-23 11:52 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497070-alibaba-stock-tremendous-upside-potential>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummaryWith the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen a nice recovery.I believe that despite the possible risks, the stock has tremendous upside given ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497070-alibaba-stock-tremendous-upside-potential\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK1142":"互联网与直销零售","BK1591":"就地过年概念","BK4565":"NFT概念","BK1502":"双十一","BK1517":"云办公","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","BK1608":"元宇宙概念","BK1575":"同股不同权","BK1584":"蚂蚁金服概念","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","PDD":"拼多多","BK1501":"阿里概念股","BK4531":"中概回港概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BABA":"阿里巴巴","NYSE":"纽交所","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4558":"双十一","BK4575":"芯片概念","BK4509":"腾讯概念","BK1588":"回港中概股","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4501":"段永平概念","BK4538":"云计算","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4526":"热门中概股","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","BK4502":"阿里概念","BK1521":"挪威政府全球养老基金持仓","BK1586":"云计算","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497070-alibaba-stock-tremendous-upside-potential","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2221979490","content_text":"SummaryWith the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen a nice recovery.I believe that despite the possible risks, the stock has tremendous upside given the company's financial track record and future earning potential.I initiate coverage on Alibaba using a 10-year EPS forecast model, and give the stock a 'Strong Buy' rating at its current valuation.David Becker/Getty Images NewsAfter the Chinese government promised to stabilize markets and ease crackdowns, Chinese equities saw a huge recovery. Shares of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. ADR (NYSE:NYSE:BABA) rose from the depths of the low 70s to over $110 a share. I believe that the company still has tremendous upside from its current valuation due to its impressive financial track record over the years, and its ability to stay on track in the years to come. Despite an increase of over 50% from its recent low, the company is still undervalued.The crash and the recoveryShares of Alibaba Group sank to a terrifying low of $73.28 a share early last week, after the SEC announced its plans to delist five Chinese companies due to a lack of compliance with auditing requirements. Investors fled from Chinese equities, resulting in a massive plunge in their share prices. Alibaba was no exception, and its stock, which had already taken a beating over the past few weeks, sank to lows that haven't been seen in years. Yet, just when all hope seemed to be lost, the Chinese government stepped in to reassure investors that they would stabilize these turbulent markets, and potentially ease regulations so that Chinese companies can remain listed in overseas markets. The positive news which came mid last week triggered a near-vertical recovery in Chinese equities, whose share prices soared by double digits over the next few days. We now see Alibaba stock trading at over $110 a share, and I believe there's more upside to come.Impressive financialsTo understand how well Alibaba has been doing, let's go over a few financial metrics.Revenue growthAlibaba's revenue growth has remained in the double digits for the past few years. The company earned $182.51 billion HKD in revenue in 2017, and this number has grown to $820.2 billion HKD as of last year's annual report. This represents a net growth in revenue of almost 350% over those 5 years.Alibaba's e-commerce revenue growth (Statista)A quick look at their e-commerce revenue growth in domestic and international markets show that there has been a sustained uptrend in both departments over the past decade, and there is good reason to believe that revenue prospects for the company will remain strong in the years to come.Share buybackAlibaba has announced a massive $25 billion share buyback program, which came shortly after the Chinese government restored investors' faith in Chinese equities. The value of the buyback is almost 10% of the company's current market capitalization, which stands at about $280 billion. This is extremely significant, and represents a substantial growth in stake ownership for the company's shareholders. The fact that the company is financially able to buy back such a large amount of shares is also a good reflection of its ability to generate free cash flows.Earnings per shareAlibaba's diluted EPS has grown from 2.45 in 2017 to 7.82 in 2021, representing an approximate 219% increase over those 5 years. This is a good indication that the company has been greatly profitable over the years. As a result, it is able to distribute more of these profits to its shareholders.Free cash flow growthAlibaba has seen a massive increase in free cash flow, from $72.39 billion HKD in 2017 to $215.66 billion HKD in 2021, representing a near 200% growth over 5 years. This is a good sign that the company is managing its operating expenses and capital expenditures well. In addition, the free cash flow-to-long term debt ratio sits at 1.11 as of 2021, which shows that the company is more than able to pay off its financial obligations. These are very promising signs that the company is in very good financial health, and is at no risk whatsoever of going under.China's growing affluenceAnother important point is that Alibaba thrives in an increasingly affluent market. China's middle class has grown from about 3% of the population in 2000 to over 50% today, and the trend shows no clear signs of pulling back. Projections show that by 2030, most of China's urban households will be in the middle income bracket and above. With an increasingly affluent market to tap into, Alibaba is likely to see a significant and sustained increase in demand for its products. This would hugely benefit the company's financials and help it stay on its impressive trajectory.Potential risksWhile there's a lot to be positive about, there are some undeniable risks that need to be mentioned.Losing market shareWhile Alibaba remains largely dominant in the Chinese market, its market share in the e-commerce industry is starting to fall due to changing consumption habits and a rise in competition. One such competitor is Pinduoduo (NASDAQ:PDD), which has proven to be formidable in the e-commerce business with its innovative methods to appeal to commerce communities. This could present a challenge for Alibaba, and it is not certain whether the company is still able to retain its large market share in the years to come.Regulatory risksWhile the Chinese government has shown signs of regulatory easing, we should never get too comfortable. Regulations concerning Chinese companies are always unpredictable, and the future of Chinese equities still bears a great deal of uncertainty. In addition, the SEC is starting to clamp down harder on foreign companies which are not compliant with any of their auditing requirements. The risks which arise from both sides still exist, and one can never be too careful, especially in today's regulatory climate.Alibaba stock valuationI will be using an EPS forecast model to determine a fair valuation of Alibaba stock. The model will be applied over 10 years, starting from 2021's EPS of 7.82. Before I do this, let me go over some of the metrics I will be using in my calculations.MetricsAssumptions used for EPS forecast model (Prepared by author)Projected annual change in shares outstandingI've projected an average annual decrease of 1% in shares outstanding over the next 10 years. This is a reasonably conservative estimate, considering the magnitude of the share buyback program.Projected annual growth rateI've projected an average annual growth rate of 15%, which seems to be a fairly conservative estimate considering the company's long-term earning potential.Minimum annual rate of returnI've gone for a desired annual return of 12.5%, which beats the returns of a good Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF by a decent margin.Margin of safetyWhile Alibaba is a Chinese company that is generally exposed to more regulatory risk, I do believe that my previous assumptions are conservative enough and a 20% margin of safety is sufficient for this calculation.Projected P/EI'll be assuming a projected P/E of 20, which is, again, a fairly low value compared to the company's P/E over the years. We could very likely see a much higher P/E than this in the future, but once again, let's be conservative. For some reference, Alibaba's current P/E (at the time of writing) is about 28.Price targetEPS Forecast for Alibaba Stock (Prepared by author)Based on our relatively conservative assumptions, we've arrived at a price target of $172.36. This means that if I were to invest in Alibaba at $172.36 a share, I would be getting an average annual return of 12.5% over 10 years. The current price of Alibaba stock sits at just above $110, and this shows that there is tremendous upside based on our current assumptions, which are already on the conservative side.ConclusionWhile Alibaba may face challenges in the future, I do believe that the company is on a great financial trajectory, and has tremendous upside in terms of its valuation. I conclude my analysis with a price target of $172.36, and a 'Strong Buy' rating at today's valuation.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9037925139,"gmtCreate":1648009843751,"gmtModify":1676534292673,"author":{"id":"4108433501136320","authorId":"4108433501136320","name":"Zed Ihsan","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9000a9fac74fd15f51660f80d847f75f","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4108433501136320","authorIdStr":"4108433501136320"},"htmlText":"Way to go BABA","listText":"Way to go BABA","text":"Way to go BABA","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9037925139","repostId":2221979490,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2221979490","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1648007579,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2221979490?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-23 11:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Stock: Tremendous Upside Potential","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2221979490","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryWith the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen","content":"<html><head></head><body>Summary<ul><li>With the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen a nice recovery.</li><li>I believe that despite the possible risks, the stock has tremendous upside given the company&#39;s financial track record and future earning potential.</li><li>I initiate coverage on Alibaba using a 10-year EPS forecast model, and give the stock a &#39;Strong Buy&#39; rating at its current valuation.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c7e5ba4a836568115de5c2d8498356e\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"469\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>David Becker/Getty Images NewsAfter the Chinese government promised to stabilize markets and ease crackdowns, Chinese equities saw a huge recovery. Shares of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. ADR (NYSE:NYSE:BABA) rose from the depths of the low 70s to over $110 a share. I believe that the company still has tremendous upside from its current valuation due to its impressive financial track record over the years, and its ability to stay on track in the years to come. Despite an increase of over 50% from its recent low, the company is still undervalued.The crash and the recoveryShares of Alibaba Group sank to a terrifying low of $73.28 a share early last week, after the SEC announced its plans to delist five Chinese companies due to a lack of compliance with auditing requirements. Investors fled from Chinese equities, resulting in a massive plunge in their share prices. Alibaba was no exception, and its stock, which had already taken a beating over the past few weeks, sank to lows that haven&#39;t been seen in years. Yet, just when all hope seemed to be lost, the Chinese government stepped in to reassure investors that they would stabilize these turbulent markets, and potentially ease regulations so that Chinese companies can remain listed in overseas markets. The positive news which came mid last week triggered a near-vertical recovery in Chinese equities, whose share prices soared by double digits over the next few days. We now see Alibaba stock trading at over $110 a share, and I believe there&#39;s more upside to come.Impressive financialsTo understand how well Alibaba has been doing, let&#39;s go over a few financial metrics.Revenue growthAlibaba&#39;s revenue growth has remained in the double digits for the past few years. The company earned $182.51 billion HKD in revenue in 2017, and this number has grown to $820.2 billion HKD as of last year&#39;s annual report. This represents a net growth in revenue of almost 350% over those 5 years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c02fbb86072d4364834fb5dff4c85880\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"476\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Alibaba&#39;s e-commerce revenue growth (Statista)A quick look at their e-commerce revenue growth in domestic and international markets show that there has been a sustained uptrend in both departments over the past decade, and there is good reason to believe that revenue prospects for the company will remain strong in the years to come.Share buybackAlibaba has announced a massive $25 billion share buyback program, which came shortly after the Chinese government restored investors&#39; faith in Chinese equities. The value of the buyback is almost 10% of the company&#39;s current market capitalization, which stands at about $280 billion. This is extremely significant, and represents a substantial growth in stake ownership for the company&#39;s shareholders. The fact that the company is financially able to buy back such a large amount of shares is also a good reflection of its ability to generate free cash flows.Earnings per shareAlibaba&#39;s diluted EPS has grown from 2.45 in 2017 to 7.82 in 2021, representing an approximate 219% increase over those 5 years. This is a good indication that the company has been greatly profitable over the years. As a result, it is able to distribute more of these profits to its shareholders.Free cash flow growthAlibaba has seen a massive increase in free cash flow, from $72.39 billion HKD in 2017 to $215.66 billion HKD in 2021, representing a near 200% growth over 5 years. This is a good sign that the company is managing its operating expenses and capital expenditures well. In addition, the free cash flow-to-long term debt ratio sits at 1.11 as of 2021, which shows that the company is more than able to pay off its financial obligations. These are very promising signs that the company is in very good financial health, and is at no risk whatsoever of going under.China&#39;s growing affluenceAnother important point is that Alibaba thrives in an increasingly affluent market. China&#39;s middle class has grown from about 3% of the population in 2000 to over 50% today, and the trend shows no clear signs of pulling back. Projections show that by 2030, most of China&#39;s urban households will be in the middle income bracket and above. With an increasingly affluent market to tap into, Alibaba is likely to see a significant and sustained increase in demand for its products. This would hugely benefit the company&#39;s financials and help it stay on its impressive trajectory.Potential risksWhile there&#39;s a lot to be positive about, there are some undeniable risks that need to be mentioned.Losing market shareWhile Alibaba remains largely dominant in the Chinese market, its market share in the e-commerce industry is starting to fall due to changing consumption habits and a rise in competition. One such competitor is Pinduoduo (NASDAQ:PDD), which has proven to be formidable in the e-commerce business with its innovative methods to appeal to commerce communities. This could present a challenge for Alibaba, and it is not certain whether the company is still able to retain its large market share in the years to come.Regulatory risksWhile the Chinese government has shown signs of regulatory easing, we should never get too comfortable. Regulations concerning Chinese companies are always unpredictable, and the future of Chinese equities still bears a great deal of uncertainty. In addition, the SEC is starting to clamp down harder on foreign companies which are not compliant with any of their auditing requirements. The risks which arise from both sides still exist, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> can never be too careful, especially in today&#39;s regulatory climate.Alibaba stock valuationI will be using an EPS forecast model to determine a fair valuation of Alibaba stock. The model will be applied over 10 years, starting from 2021&#39;s EPS of 7.82. Before I do this, let me go over some of the metrics I will be using in my calculations.Metrics<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aee8ef6644c09c16436ffe9b15b5d329\" tg-width=\"350\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Assumptions used for EPS forecast model (Prepared by author)Projected annual change in shares outstandingI&#39;ve projected an average annual decrease of 1% in shares outstanding over the next 10 years. This is a reasonably conservative estimate, considering the magnitude of the share buyback program.Projected annual growth rateI&#39;ve projected an average annual growth rate of 15%, which seems to be a fairly conservative estimate considering the company&#39;s long-term earning potential.Minimum annual rate of returnI&#39;ve gone for a desired annual return of 12.5%, which beats the returns of a good <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSFF\">Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF</a> by a decent margin.Margin of safetyWhile Alibaba is a Chinese company that is generally exposed to more regulatory risk, I do believe that my previous assumptions are conservative enough and a 20% margin of safety is sufficient for this calculation.Projected P/EI&#39;ll be assuming a projected P/E of 20, which is, again, a fairly low value compared to the company&#39;s P/E over the years. We could very likely see a much higher P/E than this in the future, but once again, let&#39;s be conservative. For some reference, Alibaba&#39;s current P/E (at the time of writing) is about 28.Price target<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e60a2da9b185d8fe76a2b6a8e23a6704\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>EPS Forecast for Alibaba Stock (Prepared by author)Based on our relatively conservative assumptions, we&#39;ve arrived at a price target of $172.36. This means that if I were to invest in Alibaba at $172.36 a share, I would be getting an average annual return of 12.5% over 10 years. The current price of Alibaba stock sits at just above $110, and this shows that there is tremendous upside based on our current assumptions, which are already on the conservative side.ConclusionWhile Alibaba may face challenges in the future, I do believe that the company is on a great financial trajectory, and has tremendous upside in terms of its valuation. I conclude my analysis with a price target of $172.36, and a &#39;Strong Buy&#39; rating at today&#39;s valuation.</body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Stock: Tremendous Upside Potential</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Stock: Tremendous Upside Potential\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-23 11:52 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497070-alibaba-stock-tremendous-upside-potential>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummaryWith the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen a nice recovery.I believe that despite the possible risks, the stock has tremendous upside given ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497070-alibaba-stock-tremendous-upside-potential\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK1142":"互联网与直销零售","BK1591":"就地过年概念","BK4565":"NFT概念","BK1502":"双十一","BK1517":"云办公","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","BK1608":"元宇宙概念","BK1575":"同股不同权","BK1584":"蚂蚁金服概念","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","PDD":"拼多多","BK1501":"阿里概念股","BK4531":"中概回港概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BABA":"阿里巴巴","NYSE":"纽交所","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4558":"双十一","BK4575":"芯片概念","BK4509":"腾讯概念","BK1588":"回港中概股","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4501":"段永平概念","BK4538":"云计算","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4526":"热门中概股","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","BK4502":"阿里概念","BK1521":"挪威政府全球养老基金持仓","BK1586":"云计算","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497070-alibaba-stock-tremendous-upside-potential","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2221979490","content_text":"SummaryWith the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen a nice recovery.I believe that despite the possible risks, the stock has tremendous upside given the company's financial track record and future earning potential.I initiate coverage on Alibaba using a 10-year EPS forecast model, and give the stock a 'Strong Buy' rating at its current valuation.David Becker/Getty Images NewsAfter the Chinese government promised to stabilize markets and ease crackdowns, Chinese equities saw a huge recovery. Shares of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. ADR (NYSE:NYSE:BABA) rose from the depths of the low 70s to over $110 a share. I believe that the company still has tremendous upside from its current valuation due to its impressive financial track record over the years, and its ability to stay on track in the years to come. Despite an increase of over 50% from its recent low, the company is still undervalued.The crash and the recoveryShares of Alibaba Group sank to a terrifying low of $73.28 a share early last week, after the SEC announced its plans to delist five Chinese companies due to a lack of compliance with auditing requirements. Investors fled from Chinese equities, resulting in a massive plunge in their share prices. Alibaba was no exception, and its stock, which had already taken a beating over the past few weeks, sank to lows that haven't been seen in years. Yet, just when all hope seemed to be lost, the Chinese government stepped in to reassure investors that they would stabilize these turbulent markets, and potentially ease regulations so that Chinese companies can remain listed in overseas markets. The positive news which came mid last week triggered a near-vertical recovery in Chinese equities, whose share prices soared by double digits over the next few days. We now see Alibaba stock trading at over $110 a share, and I believe there's more upside to come.Impressive financialsTo understand how well Alibaba has been doing, let's go over a few financial metrics.Revenue growthAlibaba's revenue growth has remained in the double digits for the past few years. The company earned $182.51 billion HKD in revenue in 2017, and this number has grown to $820.2 billion HKD as of last year's annual report. This represents a net growth in revenue of almost 350% over those 5 years.Alibaba's e-commerce revenue growth (Statista)A quick look at their e-commerce revenue growth in domestic and international markets show that there has been a sustained uptrend in both departments over the past decade, and there is good reason to believe that revenue prospects for the company will remain strong in the years to come.Share buybackAlibaba has announced a massive $25 billion share buyback program, which came shortly after the Chinese government restored investors' faith in Chinese equities. The value of the buyback is almost 10% of the company's current market capitalization, which stands at about $280 billion. This is extremely significant, and represents a substantial growth in stake ownership for the company's shareholders. The fact that the company is financially able to buy back such a large amount of shares is also a good reflection of its ability to generate free cash flows.Earnings per shareAlibaba's diluted EPS has grown from 2.45 in 2017 to 7.82 in 2021, representing an approximate 219% increase over those 5 years. This is a good indication that the company has been greatly profitable over the years. As a result, it is able to distribute more of these profits to its shareholders.Free cash flow growthAlibaba has seen a massive increase in free cash flow, from $72.39 billion HKD in 2017 to $215.66 billion HKD in 2021, representing a near 200% growth over 5 years. This is a good sign that the company is managing its operating expenses and capital expenditures well. In addition, the free cash flow-to-long term debt ratio sits at 1.11 as of 2021, which shows that the company is more than able to pay off its financial obligations. These are very promising signs that the company is in very good financial health, and is at no risk whatsoever of going under.China's growing affluenceAnother important point is that Alibaba thrives in an increasingly affluent market. China's middle class has grown from about 3% of the population in 2000 to over 50% today, and the trend shows no clear signs of pulling back. Projections show that by 2030, most of China's urban households will be in the middle income bracket and above. With an increasingly affluent market to tap into, Alibaba is likely to see a significant and sustained increase in demand for its products. This would hugely benefit the company's financials and help it stay on its impressive trajectory.Potential risksWhile there's a lot to be positive about, there are some undeniable risks that need to be mentioned.Losing market shareWhile Alibaba remains largely dominant in the Chinese market, its market share in the e-commerce industry is starting to fall due to changing consumption habits and a rise in competition. One such competitor is Pinduoduo (NASDAQ:PDD), which has proven to be formidable in the e-commerce business with its innovative methods to appeal to commerce communities. This could present a challenge for Alibaba, and it is not certain whether the company is still able to retain its large market share in the years to come.Regulatory risksWhile the Chinese government has shown signs of regulatory easing, we should never get too comfortable. Regulations concerning Chinese companies are always unpredictable, and the future of Chinese equities still bears a great deal of uncertainty. In addition, the SEC is starting to clamp down harder on foreign companies which are not compliant with any of their auditing requirements. The risks which arise from both sides still exist, and one can never be too careful, especially in today's regulatory climate.Alibaba stock valuationI will be using an EPS forecast model to determine a fair valuation of Alibaba stock. The model will be applied over 10 years, starting from 2021's EPS of 7.82. Before I do this, let me go over some of the metrics I will be using in my calculations.MetricsAssumptions used for EPS forecast model (Prepared by author)Projected annual change in shares outstandingI've projected an average annual decrease of 1% in shares outstanding over the next 10 years. This is a reasonably conservative estimate, considering the magnitude of the share buyback program.Projected annual growth rateI've projected an average annual growth rate of 15%, which seems to be a fairly conservative estimate considering the company's long-term earning potential.Minimum annual rate of returnI've gone for a desired annual return of 12.5%, which beats the returns of a good Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF by a decent margin.Margin of safetyWhile Alibaba is a Chinese company that is generally exposed to more regulatory risk, I do believe that my previous assumptions are conservative enough and a 20% margin of safety is sufficient for this calculation.Projected P/EI'll be assuming a projected P/E of 20, which is, again, a fairly low value compared to the company's P/E over the years. We could very likely see a much higher P/E than this in the future, but once again, let's be conservative. For some reference, Alibaba's current P/E (at the time of writing) is about 28.Price targetEPS Forecast for Alibaba Stock (Prepared by author)Based on our relatively conservative assumptions, we've arrived at a price target of $172.36. This means that if I were to invest in Alibaba at $172.36 a share, I would be getting an average annual return of 12.5% over 10 years. The current price of Alibaba stock sits at just above $110, and this shows that there is tremendous upside based on our current assumptions, which are already on the conservative side.ConclusionWhile Alibaba may face challenges in the future, I do believe that the company is on a great financial trajectory, and has tremendous upside in terms of its valuation. I conclude my analysis with a price target of $172.36, and a 'Strong Buy' rating at today's valuation.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9037922746,"gmtCreate":1648009823690,"gmtModify":1676534292665,"author":{"id":"4108085104061740","authorId":"4108085104061740","name":"whitewolf69","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/9eef01712557c2292d304f7424b90b6a","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4108085104061740","authorIdStr":"4108085104061740"},"htmlText":"Good stock for the long-term hold","listText":"Good stock for the long-term hold","text":"Good stock for the long-term hold","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9037922746","repostId":2221979490,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2221979490","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1648007579,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2221979490?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-23 11:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Stock: Tremendous Upside Potential","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2221979490","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryWith the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen","content":"<html><head></head><body>Summary<ul><li>With the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen a nice recovery.</li><li>I believe that despite the possible risks, the stock has tremendous upside given the company&#39;s financial track record and future earning potential.</li><li>I initiate coverage on Alibaba using a 10-year EPS forecast model, and give the stock a &#39;Strong Buy&#39; rating at its current valuation.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c7e5ba4a836568115de5c2d8498356e\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"469\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>David Becker/Getty Images NewsAfter the Chinese government promised to stabilize markets and ease crackdowns, Chinese equities saw a huge recovery. Shares of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. ADR (NYSE:NYSE:BABA) rose from the depths of the low 70s to over $110 a share. I believe that the company still has tremendous upside from its current valuation due to its impressive financial track record over the years, and its ability to stay on track in the years to come. Despite an increase of over 50% from its recent low, the company is still undervalued.The crash and the recoveryShares of Alibaba Group sank to a terrifying low of $73.28 a share early last week, after the SEC announced its plans to delist five Chinese companies due to a lack of compliance with auditing requirements. Investors fled from Chinese equities, resulting in a massive plunge in their share prices. Alibaba was no exception, and its stock, which had already taken a beating over the past few weeks, sank to lows that haven&#39;t been seen in years. Yet, just when all hope seemed to be lost, the Chinese government stepped in to reassure investors that they would stabilize these turbulent markets, and potentially ease regulations so that Chinese companies can remain listed in overseas markets. The positive news which came mid last week triggered a near-vertical recovery in Chinese equities, whose share prices soared by double digits over the next few days. We now see Alibaba stock trading at over $110 a share, and I believe there&#39;s more upside to come.Impressive financialsTo understand how well Alibaba has been doing, let&#39;s go over a few financial metrics.Revenue growthAlibaba&#39;s revenue growth has remained in the double digits for the past few years. The company earned $182.51 billion HKD in revenue in 2017, and this number has grown to $820.2 billion HKD as of last year&#39;s annual report. This represents a net growth in revenue of almost 350% over those 5 years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c02fbb86072d4364834fb5dff4c85880\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"476\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Alibaba&#39;s e-commerce revenue growth (Statista)A quick look at their e-commerce revenue growth in domestic and international markets show that there has been a sustained uptrend in both departments over the past decade, and there is good reason to believe that revenue prospects for the company will remain strong in the years to come.Share buybackAlibaba has announced a massive $25 billion share buyback program, which came shortly after the Chinese government restored investors&#39; faith in Chinese equities. The value of the buyback is almost 10% of the company&#39;s current market capitalization, which stands at about $280 billion. This is extremely significant, and represents a substantial growth in stake ownership for the company&#39;s shareholders. The fact that the company is financially able to buy back such a large amount of shares is also a good reflection of its ability to generate free cash flows.Earnings per shareAlibaba&#39;s diluted EPS has grown from 2.45 in 2017 to 7.82 in 2021, representing an approximate 219% increase over those 5 years. This is a good indication that the company has been greatly profitable over the years. As a result, it is able to distribute more of these profits to its shareholders.Free cash flow growthAlibaba has seen a massive increase in free cash flow, from $72.39 billion HKD in 2017 to $215.66 billion HKD in 2021, representing a near 200% growth over 5 years. This is a good sign that the company is managing its operating expenses and capital expenditures well. In addition, the free cash flow-to-long term debt ratio sits at 1.11 as of 2021, which shows that the company is more than able to pay off its financial obligations. These are very promising signs that the company is in very good financial health, and is at no risk whatsoever of going under.China&#39;s growing affluenceAnother important point is that Alibaba thrives in an increasingly affluent market. China&#39;s middle class has grown from about 3% of the population in 2000 to over 50% today, and the trend shows no clear signs of pulling back. Projections show that by 2030, most of China&#39;s urban households will be in the middle income bracket and above. With an increasingly affluent market to tap into, Alibaba is likely to see a significant and sustained increase in demand for its products. This would hugely benefit the company&#39;s financials and help it stay on its impressive trajectory.Potential risksWhile there&#39;s a lot to be positive about, there are some undeniable risks that need to be mentioned.Losing market shareWhile Alibaba remains largely dominant in the Chinese market, its market share in the e-commerce industry is starting to fall due to changing consumption habits and a rise in competition. One such competitor is Pinduoduo (NASDAQ:PDD), which has proven to be formidable in the e-commerce business with its innovative methods to appeal to commerce communities. This could present a challenge for Alibaba, and it is not certain whether the company is still able to retain its large market share in the years to come.Regulatory risksWhile the Chinese government has shown signs of regulatory easing, we should never get too comfortable. Regulations concerning Chinese companies are always unpredictable, and the future of Chinese equities still bears a great deal of uncertainty. In addition, the SEC is starting to clamp down harder on foreign companies which are not compliant with any of their auditing requirements. The risks which arise from both sides still exist, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> can never be too careful, especially in today&#39;s regulatory climate.Alibaba stock valuationI will be using an EPS forecast model to determine a fair valuation of Alibaba stock. The model will be applied over 10 years, starting from 2021&#39;s EPS of 7.82. Before I do this, let me go over some of the metrics I will be using in my calculations.Metrics<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aee8ef6644c09c16436ffe9b15b5d329\" tg-width=\"350\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Assumptions used for EPS forecast model (Prepared by author)Projected annual change in shares outstandingI&#39;ve projected an average annual decrease of 1% in shares outstanding over the next 10 years. This is a reasonably conservative estimate, considering the magnitude of the share buyback program.Projected annual growth rateI&#39;ve projected an average annual growth rate of 15%, which seems to be a fairly conservative estimate considering the company&#39;s long-term earning potential.Minimum annual rate of returnI&#39;ve gone for a desired annual return of 12.5%, which beats the returns of a good <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSFF\">Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF</a> by a decent margin.Margin of safetyWhile Alibaba is a Chinese company that is generally exposed to more regulatory risk, I do believe that my previous assumptions are conservative enough and a 20% margin of safety is sufficient for this calculation.Projected P/EI&#39;ll be assuming a projected P/E of 20, which is, again, a fairly low value compared to the company&#39;s P/E over the years. We could very likely see a much higher P/E than this in the future, but once again, let&#39;s be conservative. For some reference, Alibaba&#39;s current P/E (at the time of writing) is about 28.Price target<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e60a2da9b185d8fe76a2b6a8e23a6704\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>EPS Forecast for Alibaba Stock (Prepared by author)Based on our relatively conservative assumptions, we&#39;ve arrived at a price target of $172.36. This means that if I were to invest in Alibaba at $172.36 a share, I would be getting an average annual return of 12.5% over 10 years. The current price of Alibaba stock sits at just above $110, and this shows that there is tremendous upside based on our current assumptions, which are already on the conservative side.ConclusionWhile Alibaba may face challenges in the future, I do believe that the company is on a great financial trajectory, and has tremendous upside in terms of its valuation. I conclude my analysis with a price target of $172.36, and a &#39;Strong Buy&#39; rating at today&#39;s valuation.</body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Stock: Tremendous Upside Potential</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Stock: Tremendous Upside Potential\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-23 11:52 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497070-alibaba-stock-tremendous-upside-potential>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummaryWith the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen a nice recovery.I believe that despite the possible risks, the stock has tremendous upside given ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497070-alibaba-stock-tremendous-upside-potential\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK1142":"互联网与直销零售","BK1591":"就地过年概念","BK4565":"NFT概念","BK1502":"双十一","BK1517":"云办公","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","BK1608":"元宇宙概念","BK1575":"同股不同权","BK1584":"蚂蚁金服概念","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","PDD":"拼多多","BK1501":"阿里概念股","BK4531":"中概回港概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BABA":"阿里巴巴","NYSE":"纽交所","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4558":"双十一","BK4575":"芯片概念","BK4509":"腾讯概念","BK1588":"回港中概股","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4501":"段永平概念","BK4538":"云计算","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4526":"热门中概股","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","BK4502":"阿里概念","BK1521":"挪威政府全球养老基金持仓","BK1586":"云计算","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497070-alibaba-stock-tremendous-upside-potential","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2221979490","content_text":"SummaryWith the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen a nice recovery.I believe that despite the possible risks, the stock has tremendous upside given the company's financial track record and future earning potential.I initiate coverage on Alibaba using a 10-year EPS forecast model, and give the stock a 'Strong Buy' rating at its current valuation.David Becker/Getty Images NewsAfter the Chinese government promised to stabilize markets and ease crackdowns, Chinese equities saw a huge recovery. Shares of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. ADR (NYSE:NYSE:BABA) rose from the depths of the low 70s to over $110 a share. I believe that the company still has tremendous upside from its current valuation due to its impressive financial track record over the years, and its ability to stay on track in the years to come. Despite an increase of over 50% from its recent low, the company is still undervalued.The crash and the recoveryShares of Alibaba Group sank to a terrifying low of $73.28 a share early last week, after the SEC announced its plans to delist five Chinese companies due to a lack of compliance with auditing requirements. Investors fled from Chinese equities, resulting in a massive plunge in their share prices. Alibaba was no exception, and its stock, which had already taken a beating over the past few weeks, sank to lows that haven't been seen in years. Yet, just when all hope seemed to be lost, the Chinese government stepped in to reassure investors that they would stabilize these turbulent markets, and potentially ease regulations so that Chinese companies can remain listed in overseas markets. The positive news which came mid last week triggered a near-vertical recovery in Chinese equities, whose share prices soared by double digits over the next few days. We now see Alibaba stock trading at over $110 a share, and I believe there's more upside to come.Impressive financialsTo understand how well Alibaba has been doing, let's go over a few financial metrics.Revenue growthAlibaba's revenue growth has remained in the double digits for the past few years. The company earned $182.51 billion HKD in revenue in 2017, and this number has grown to $820.2 billion HKD as of last year's annual report. This represents a net growth in revenue of almost 350% over those 5 years.Alibaba's e-commerce revenue growth (Statista)A quick look at their e-commerce revenue growth in domestic and international markets show that there has been a sustained uptrend in both departments over the past decade, and there is good reason to believe that revenue prospects for the company will remain strong in the years to come.Share buybackAlibaba has announced a massive $25 billion share buyback program, which came shortly after the Chinese government restored investors' faith in Chinese equities. The value of the buyback is almost 10% of the company's current market capitalization, which stands at about $280 billion. This is extremely significant, and represents a substantial growth in stake ownership for the company's shareholders. The fact that the company is financially able to buy back such a large amount of shares is also a good reflection of its ability to generate free cash flows.Earnings per shareAlibaba's diluted EPS has grown from 2.45 in 2017 to 7.82 in 2021, representing an approximate 219% increase over those 5 years. This is a good indication that the company has been greatly profitable over the years. As a result, it is able to distribute more of these profits to its shareholders.Free cash flow growthAlibaba has seen a massive increase in free cash flow, from $72.39 billion HKD in 2017 to $215.66 billion HKD in 2021, representing a near 200% growth over 5 years. This is a good sign that the company is managing its operating expenses and capital expenditures well. In addition, the free cash flow-to-long term debt ratio sits at 1.11 as of 2021, which shows that the company is more than able to pay off its financial obligations. These are very promising signs that the company is in very good financial health, and is at no risk whatsoever of going under.China's growing affluenceAnother important point is that Alibaba thrives in an increasingly affluent market. China's middle class has grown from about 3% of the population in 2000 to over 50% today, and the trend shows no clear signs of pulling back. Projections show that by 2030, most of China's urban households will be in the middle income bracket and above. With an increasingly affluent market to tap into, Alibaba is likely to see a significant and sustained increase in demand for its products. This would hugely benefit the company's financials and help it stay on its impressive trajectory.Potential risksWhile there's a lot to be positive about, there are some undeniable risks that need to be mentioned.Losing market shareWhile Alibaba remains largely dominant in the Chinese market, its market share in the e-commerce industry is starting to fall due to changing consumption habits and a rise in competition. One such competitor is Pinduoduo (NASDAQ:PDD), which has proven to be formidable in the e-commerce business with its innovative methods to appeal to commerce communities. This could present a challenge for Alibaba, and it is not certain whether the company is still able to retain its large market share in the years to come.Regulatory risksWhile the Chinese government has shown signs of regulatory easing, we should never get too comfortable. Regulations concerning Chinese companies are always unpredictable, and the future of Chinese equities still bears a great deal of uncertainty. In addition, the SEC is starting to clamp down harder on foreign companies which are not compliant with any of their auditing requirements. The risks which arise from both sides still exist, and one can never be too careful, especially in today's regulatory climate.Alibaba stock valuationI will be using an EPS forecast model to determine a fair valuation of Alibaba stock. The model will be applied over 10 years, starting from 2021's EPS of 7.82. Before I do this, let me go over some of the metrics I will be using in my calculations.MetricsAssumptions used for EPS forecast model (Prepared by author)Projected annual change in shares outstandingI've projected an average annual decrease of 1% in shares outstanding over the next 10 years. This is a reasonably conservative estimate, considering the magnitude of the share buyback program.Projected annual growth rateI've projected an average annual growth rate of 15%, which seems to be a fairly conservative estimate considering the company's long-term earning potential.Minimum annual rate of returnI've gone for a desired annual return of 12.5%, which beats the returns of a good Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF by a decent margin.Margin of safetyWhile Alibaba is a Chinese company that is generally exposed to more regulatory risk, I do believe that my previous assumptions are conservative enough and a 20% margin of safety is sufficient for this calculation.Projected P/EI'll be assuming a projected P/E of 20, which is, again, a fairly low value compared to the company's P/E over the years. We could very likely see a much higher P/E than this in the future, but once again, let's be conservative. For some reference, Alibaba's current P/E (at the time of writing) is about 28.Price targetEPS Forecast for Alibaba Stock (Prepared by author)Based on our relatively conservative assumptions, we've arrived at a price target of $172.36. This means that if I were to invest in Alibaba at $172.36 a share, I would be getting an average annual return of 12.5% over 10 years. The current price of Alibaba stock sits at just above $110, and this shows that there is tremendous upside based on our current assumptions, which are already on the conservative side.ConclusionWhile Alibaba may face challenges in the future, I do believe that the company is on a great financial trajectory, and has tremendous upside in terms of its valuation. I conclude my analysis with a price target of $172.36, and a 'Strong Buy' rating at today's valuation.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9037922633,"gmtCreate":1648009787656,"gmtModify":1676534292658,"author":{"id":"4089461104605170","authorId":"4089461104605170","name":"MSTAN","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/1d0ff53a35c30afecbd1fa0c5ed59f07","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4089461104605170","authorIdStr":"4089461104605170"},"htmlText":"👍👍","listText":"👍👍","text":"👍👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9037922633","repostId":2221979490,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2221979490","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1648007579,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2221979490?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-23 11:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Stock: Tremendous Upside Potential","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2221979490","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryWith the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen","content":"<html><head></head><body>Summary<ul><li>With the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen a nice recovery.</li><li>I believe that despite the possible risks, the stock has tremendous upside given the company&#39;s financial track record and future earning potential.</li><li>I initiate coverage on Alibaba using a 10-year EPS forecast model, and give the stock a &#39;Strong Buy&#39; rating at its current valuation.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c7e5ba4a836568115de5c2d8498356e\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"469\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>David Becker/Getty Images NewsAfter the Chinese government promised to stabilize markets and ease crackdowns, Chinese equities saw a huge recovery. Shares of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. ADR (NYSE:NYSE:BABA) rose from the depths of the low 70s to over $110 a share. I believe that the company still has tremendous upside from its current valuation due to its impressive financial track record over the years, and its ability to stay on track in the years to come. Despite an increase of over 50% from its recent low, the company is still undervalued.The crash and the recoveryShares of Alibaba Group sank to a terrifying low of $73.28 a share early last week, after the SEC announced its plans to delist five Chinese companies due to a lack of compliance with auditing requirements. Investors fled from Chinese equities, resulting in a massive plunge in their share prices. Alibaba was no exception, and its stock, which had already taken a beating over the past few weeks, sank to lows that haven&#39;t been seen in years. Yet, just when all hope seemed to be lost, the Chinese government stepped in to reassure investors that they would stabilize these turbulent markets, and potentially ease regulations so that Chinese companies can remain listed in overseas markets. The positive news which came mid last week triggered a near-vertical recovery in Chinese equities, whose share prices soared by double digits over the next few days. We now see Alibaba stock trading at over $110 a share, and I believe there&#39;s more upside to come.Impressive financialsTo understand how well Alibaba has been doing, let&#39;s go over a few financial metrics.Revenue growthAlibaba&#39;s revenue growth has remained in the double digits for the past few years. The company earned $182.51 billion HKD in revenue in 2017, and this number has grown to $820.2 billion HKD as of last year&#39;s annual report. This represents a net growth in revenue of almost 350% over those 5 years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c02fbb86072d4364834fb5dff4c85880\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"476\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Alibaba&#39;s e-commerce revenue growth (Statista)A quick look at their e-commerce revenue growth in domestic and international markets show that there has been a sustained uptrend in both departments over the past decade, and there is good reason to believe that revenue prospects for the company will remain strong in the years to come.Share buybackAlibaba has announced a massive $25 billion share buyback program, which came shortly after the Chinese government restored investors&#39; faith in Chinese equities. The value of the buyback is almost 10% of the company&#39;s current market capitalization, which stands at about $280 billion. This is extremely significant, and represents a substantial growth in stake ownership for the company&#39;s shareholders. The fact that the company is financially able to buy back such a large amount of shares is also a good reflection of its ability to generate free cash flows.Earnings per shareAlibaba&#39;s diluted EPS has grown from 2.45 in 2017 to 7.82 in 2021, representing an approximate 219% increase over those 5 years. This is a good indication that the company has been greatly profitable over the years. As a result, it is able to distribute more of these profits to its shareholders.Free cash flow growthAlibaba has seen a massive increase in free cash flow, from $72.39 billion HKD in 2017 to $215.66 billion HKD in 2021, representing a near 200% growth over 5 years. This is a good sign that the company is managing its operating expenses and capital expenditures well. In addition, the free cash flow-to-long term debt ratio sits at 1.11 as of 2021, which shows that the company is more than able to pay off its financial obligations. These are very promising signs that the company is in very good financial health, and is at no risk whatsoever of going under.China&#39;s growing affluenceAnother important point is that Alibaba thrives in an increasingly affluent market. China&#39;s middle class has grown from about 3% of the population in 2000 to over 50% today, and the trend shows no clear signs of pulling back. Projections show that by 2030, most of China&#39;s urban households will be in the middle income bracket and above. With an increasingly affluent market to tap into, Alibaba is likely to see a significant and sustained increase in demand for its products. This would hugely benefit the company&#39;s financials and help it stay on its impressive trajectory.Potential risksWhile there&#39;s a lot to be positive about, there are some undeniable risks that need to be mentioned.Losing market shareWhile Alibaba remains largely dominant in the Chinese market, its market share in the e-commerce industry is starting to fall due to changing consumption habits and a rise in competition. One such competitor is Pinduoduo (NASDAQ:PDD), which has proven to be formidable in the e-commerce business with its innovative methods to appeal to commerce communities. This could present a challenge for Alibaba, and it is not certain whether the company is still able to retain its large market share in the years to come.Regulatory risksWhile the Chinese government has shown signs of regulatory easing, we should never get too comfortable. Regulations concerning Chinese companies are always unpredictable, and the future of Chinese equities still bears a great deal of uncertainty. In addition, the SEC is starting to clamp down harder on foreign companies which are not compliant with any of their auditing requirements. The risks which arise from both sides still exist, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> can never be too careful, especially in today&#39;s regulatory climate.Alibaba stock valuationI will be using an EPS forecast model to determine a fair valuation of Alibaba stock. The model will be applied over 10 years, starting from 2021&#39;s EPS of 7.82. Before I do this, let me go over some of the metrics I will be using in my calculations.Metrics<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aee8ef6644c09c16436ffe9b15b5d329\" tg-width=\"350\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Assumptions used for EPS forecast model (Prepared by author)Projected annual change in shares outstandingI&#39;ve projected an average annual decrease of 1% in shares outstanding over the next 10 years. This is a reasonably conservative estimate, considering the magnitude of the share buyback program.Projected annual growth rateI&#39;ve projected an average annual growth rate of 15%, which seems to be a fairly conservative estimate considering the company&#39;s long-term earning potential.Minimum annual rate of returnI&#39;ve gone for a desired annual return of 12.5%, which beats the returns of a good <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSFF\">Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF</a> by a decent margin.Margin of safetyWhile Alibaba is a Chinese company that is generally exposed to more regulatory risk, I do believe that my previous assumptions are conservative enough and a 20% margin of safety is sufficient for this calculation.Projected P/EI&#39;ll be assuming a projected P/E of 20, which is, again, a fairly low value compared to the company&#39;s P/E over the years. We could very likely see a much higher P/E than this in the future, but once again, let&#39;s be conservative. For some reference, Alibaba&#39;s current P/E (at the time of writing) is about 28.Price target<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e60a2da9b185d8fe76a2b6a8e23a6704\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>EPS Forecast for Alibaba Stock (Prepared by author)Based on our relatively conservative assumptions, we&#39;ve arrived at a price target of $172.36. This means that if I were to invest in Alibaba at $172.36 a share, I would be getting an average annual return of 12.5% over 10 years. The current price of Alibaba stock sits at just above $110, and this shows that there is tremendous upside based on our current assumptions, which are already on the conservative side.ConclusionWhile Alibaba may face challenges in the future, I do believe that the company is on a great financial trajectory, and has tremendous upside in terms of its valuation. I conclude my analysis with a price target of $172.36, and a &#39;Strong Buy&#39; rating at today&#39;s valuation.</body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Stock: Tremendous Upside Potential</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Stock: Tremendous Upside Potential\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-23 11:52 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497070-alibaba-stock-tremendous-upside-potential>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummaryWith the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen a nice recovery.I believe that despite the possible risks, the stock has tremendous upside given ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497070-alibaba-stock-tremendous-upside-potential\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK1142":"互联网与直销零售","BK1591":"就地过年概念","BK4565":"NFT概念","BK1502":"双十一","BK1517":"云办公","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","BK1608":"元宇宙概念","BK1575":"同股不同权","BK1584":"蚂蚁金服概念","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","PDD":"拼多多","BK1501":"阿里概念股","BK4531":"中概回港概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BABA":"阿里巴巴","NYSE":"纽交所","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4558":"双十一","BK4575":"芯片概念","BK4509":"腾讯概念","BK1588":"回港中概股","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4501":"段永平概念","BK4538":"云计算","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4526":"热门中概股","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","BK4502":"阿里概念","BK1521":"挪威政府全球养老基金持仓","BK1586":"云计算","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497070-alibaba-stock-tremendous-upside-potential","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2221979490","content_text":"SummaryWith the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen a nice recovery.I believe that despite the possible risks, the stock has tremendous upside given the company's financial track record and future earning potential.I initiate coverage on Alibaba using a 10-year EPS forecast model, and give the stock a 'Strong Buy' rating at its current valuation.David Becker/Getty Images NewsAfter the Chinese government promised to stabilize markets and ease crackdowns, Chinese equities saw a huge recovery. Shares of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. ADR (NYSE:NYSE:BABA) rose from the depths of the low 70s to over $110 a share. I believe that the company still has tremendous upside from its current valuation due to its impressive financial track record over the years, and its ability to stay on track in the years to come. Despite an increase of over 50% from its recent low, the company is still undervalued.The crash and the recoveryShares of Alibaba Group sank to a terrifying low of $73.28 a share early last week, after the SEC announced its plans to delist five Chinese companies due to a lack of compliance with auditing requirements. Investors fled from Chinese equities, resulting in a massive plunge in their share prices. Alibaba was no exception, and its stock, which had already taken a beating over the past few weeks, sank to lows that haven't been seen in years. Yet, just when all hope seemed to be lost, the Chinese government stepped in to reassure investors that they would stabilize these turbulent markets, and potentially ease regulations so that Chinese companies can remain listed in overseas markets. The positive news which came mid last week triggered a near-vertical recovery in Chinese equities, whose share prices soared by double digits over the next few days. We now see Alibaba stock trading at over $110 a share, and I believe there's more upside to come.Impressive financialsTo understand how well Alibaba has been doing, let's go over a few financial metrics.Revenue growthAlibaba's revenue growth has remained in the double digits for the past few years. The company earned $182.51 billion HKD in revenue in 2017, and this number has grown to $820.2 billion HKD as of last year's annual report. This represents a net growth in revenue of almost 350% over those 5 years.Alibaba's e-commerce revenue growth (Statista)A quick look at their e-commerce revenue growth in domestic and international markets show that there has been a sustained uptrend in both departments over the past decade, and there is good reason to believe that revenue prospects for the company will remain strong in the years to come.Share buybackAlibaba has announced a massive $25 billion share buyback program, which came shortly after the Chinese government restored investors' faith in Chinese equities. The value of the buyback is almost 10% of the company's current market capitalization, which stands at about $280 billion. This is extremely significant, and represents a substantial growth in stake ownership for the company's shareholders. The fact that the company is financially able to buy back such a large amount of shares is also a good reflection of its ability to generate free cash flows.Earnings per shareAlibaba's diluted EPS has grown from 2.45 in 2017 to 7.82 in 2021, representing an approximate 219% increase over those 5 years. This is a good indication that the company has been greatly profitable over the years. As a result, it is able to distribute more of these profits to its shareholders.Free cash flow growthAlibaba has seen a massive increase in free cash flow, from $72.39 billion HKD in 2017 to $215.66 billion HKD in 2021, representing a near 200% growth over 5 years. This is a good sign that the company is managing its operating expenses and capital expenditures well. In addition, the free cash flow-to-long term debt ratio sits at 1.11 as of 2021, which shows that the company is more than able to pay off its financial obligations. These are very promising signs that the company is in very good financial health, and is at no risk whatsoever of going under.China's growing affluenceAnother important point is that Alibaba thrives in an increasingly affluent market. China's middle class has grown from about 3% of the population in 2000 to over 50% today, and the trend shows no clear signs of pulling back. Projections show that by 2030, most of China's urban households will be in the middle income bracket and above. With an increasingly affluent market to tap into, Alibaba is likely to see a significant and sustained increase in demand for its products. This would hugely benefit the company's financials and help it stay on its impressive trajectory.Potential risksWhile there's a lot to be positive about, there are some undeniable risks that need to be mentioned.Losing market shareWhile Alibaba remains largely dominant in the Chinese market, its market share in the e-commerce industry is starting to fall due to changing consumption habits and a rise in competition. One such competitor is Pinduoduo (NASDAQ:PDD), which has proven to be formidable in the e-commerce business with its innovative methods to appeal to commerce communities. This could present a challenge for Alibaba, and it is not certain whether the company is still able to retain its large market share in the years to come.Regulatory risksWhile the Chinese government has shown signs of regulatory easing, we should never get too comfortable. Regulations concerning Chinese companies are always unpredictable, and the future of Chinese equities still bears a great deal of uncertainty. In addition, the SEC is starting to clamp down harder on foreign companies which are not compliant with any of their auditing requirements. The risks which arise from both sides still exist, and one can never be too careful, especially in today's regulatory climate.Alibaba stock valuationI will be using an EPS forecast model to determine a fair valuation of Alibaba stock. The model will be applied over 10 years, starting from 2021's EPS of 7.82. Before I do this, let me go over some of the metrics I will be using in my calculations.MetricsAssumptions used for EPS forecast model (Prepared by author)Projected annual change in shares outstandingI've projected an average annual decrease of 1% in shares outstanding over the next 10 years. This is a reasonably conservative estimate, considering the magnitude of the share buyback program.Projected annual growth rateI've projected an average annual growth rate of 15%, which seems to be a fairly conservative estimate considering the company's long-term earning potential.Minimum annual rate of returnI've gone for a desired annual return of 12.5%, which beats the returns of a good Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF by a decent margin.Margin of safetyWhile Alibaba is a Chinese company that is generally exposed to more regulatory risk, I do believe that my previous assumptions are conservative enough and a 20% margin of safety is sufficient for this calculation.Projected P/EI'll be assuming a projected P/E of 20, which is, again, a fairly low value compared to the company's P/E over the years. We could very likely see a much higher P/E than this in the future, but once again, let's be conservative. For some reference, Alibaba's current P/E (at the time of writing) is about 28.Price targetEPS Forecast for Alibaba Stock (Prepared by author)Based on our relatively conservative assumptions, we've arrived at a price target of $172.36. This means that if I were to invest in Alibaba at $172.36 a share, I would be getting an average annual return of 12.5% over 10 years. The current price of Alibaba stock sits at just above $110, and this shows that there is tremendous upside based on our current assumptions, which are already on the conservative side.ConclusionWhile Alibaba may face challenges in the future, I do believe that the company is on a great financial trajectory, and has tremendous upside in terms of its valuation. I conclude my analysis with a price target of $172.36, and a 'Strong Buy' rating at today's valuation.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9037926497,"gmtCreate":1648009653425,"gmtModify":1676534292641,"author":{"id":"4108085104061740","authorId":"4108085104061740","name":"whitewolf69","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/9eef01712557c2292d304f7424b90b6a","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4108085104061740","authorIdStr":"4108085104061740"},"htmlText":"Good long-term holding stock","listText":"Good long-term holding stock","text":"Good long-term holding stock","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9037926497","repostId":2221979490,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2221979490","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1648007579,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2221979490?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-23 11:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Stock: Tremendous Upside Potential","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2221979490","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryWith the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen","content":"<html><head></head><body>Summary<ul><li>With the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen a nice recovery.</li><li>I believe that despite the possible risks, the stock has tremendous upside given the company&#39;s financial track record and future earning potential.</li><li>I initiate coverage on Alibaba using a 10-year EPS forecast model, and give the stock a &#39;Strong Buy&#39; rating at its current valuation.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c7e5ba4a836568115de5c2d8498356e\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"469\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>David Becker/Getty Images NewsAfter the Chinese government promised to stabilize markets and ease crackdowns, Chinese equities saw a huge recovery. Shares of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. ADR (NYSE:NYSE:BABA) rose from the depths of the low 70s to over $110 a share. I believe that the company still has tremendous upside from its current valuation due to its impressive financial track record over the years, and its ability to stay on track in the years to come. Despite an increase of over 50% from its recent low, the company is still undervalued.The crash and the recoveryShares of Alibaba Group sank to a terrifying low of $73.28 a share early last week, after the SEC announced its plans to delist five Chinese companies due to a lack of compliance with auditing requirements. Investors fled from Chinese equities, resulting in a massive plunge in their share prices. Alibaba was no exception, and its stock, which had already taken a beating over the past few weeks, sank to lows that haven&#39;t been seen in years. Yet, just when all hope seemed to be lost, the Chinese government stepped in to reassure investors that they would stabilize these turbulent markets, and potentially ease regulations so that Chinese companies can remain listed in overseas markets. The positive news which came mid last week triggered a near-vertical recovery in Chinese equities, whose share prices soared by double digits over the next few days. We now see Alibaba stock trading at over $110 a share, and I believe there&#39;s more upside to come.Impressive financialsTo understand how well Alibaba has been doing, let&#39;s go over a few financial metrics.Revenue growthAlibaba&#39;s revenue growth has remained in the double digits for the past few years. The company earned $182.51 billion HKD in revenue in 2017, and this number has grown to $820.2 billion HKD as of last year&#39;s annual report. This represents a net growth in revenue of almost 350% over those 5 years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c02fbb86072d4364834fb5dff4c85880\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"476\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Alibaba&#39;s e-commerce revenue growth (Statista)A quick look at their e-commerce revenue growth in domestic and international markets show that there has been a sustained uptrend in both departments over the past decade, and there is good reason to believe that revenue prospects for the company will remain strong in the years to come.Share buybackAlibaba has announced a massive $25 billion share buyback program, which came shortly after the Chinese government restored investors&#39; faith in Chinese equities. The value of the buyback is almost 10% of the company&#39;s current market capitalization, which stands at about $280 billion. This is extremely significant, and represents a substantial growth in stake ownership for the company&#39;s shareholders. The fact that the company is financially able to buy back such a large amount of shares is also a good reflection of its ability to generate free cash flows.Earnings per shareAlibaba&#39;s diluted EPS has grown from 2.45 in 2017 to 7.82 in 2021, representing an approximate 219% increase over those 5 years. This is a good indication that the company has been greatly profitable over the years. As a result, it is able to distribute more of these profits to its shareholders.Free cash flow growthAlibaba has seen a massive increase in free cash flow, from $72.39 billion HKD in 2017 to $215.66 billion HKD in 2021, representing a near 200% growth over 5 years. This is a good sign that the company is managing its operating expenses and capital expenditures well. In addition, the free cash flow-to-long term debt ratio sits at 1.11 as of 2021, which shows that the company is more than able to pay off its financial obligations. These are very promising signs that the company is in very good financial health, and is at no risk whatsoever of going under.China&#39;s growing affluenceAnother important point is that Alibaba thrives in an increasingly affluent market. China&#39;s middle class has grown from about 3% of the population in 2000 to over 50% today, and the trend shows no clear signs of pulling back. Projections show that by 2030, most of China&#39;s urban households will be in the middle income bracket and above. With an increasingly affluent market to tap into, Alibaba is likely to see a significant and sustained increase in demand for its products. This would hugely benefit the company&#39;s financials and help it stay on its impressive trajectory.Potential risksWhile there&#39;s a lot to be positive about, there are some undeniable risks that need to be mentioned.Losing market shareWhile Alibaba remains largely dominant in the Chinese market, its market share in the e-commerce industry is starting to fall due to changing consumption habits and a rise in competition. One such competitor is Pinduoduo (NASDAQ:PDD), which has proven to be formidable in the e-commerce business with its innovative methods to appeal to commerce communities. This could present a challenge for Alibaba, and it is not certain whether the company is still able to retain its large market share in the years to come.Regulatory risksWhile the Chinese government has shown signs of regulatory easing, we should never get too comfortable. Regulations concerning Chinese companies are always unpredictable, and the future of Chinese equities still bears a great deal of uncertainty. In addition, the SEC is starting to clamp down harder on foreign companies which are not compliant with any of their auditing requirements. The risks which arise from both sides still exist, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> can never be too careful, especially in today&#39;s regulatory climate.Alibaba stock valuationI will be using an EPS forecast model to determine a fair valuation of Alibaba stock. The model will be applied over 10 years, starting from 2021&#39;s EPS of 7.82. Before I do this, let me go over some of the metrics I will be using in my calculations.Metrics<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aee8ef6644c09c16436ffe9b15b5d329\" tg-width=\"350\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Assumptions used for EPS forecast model (Prepared by author)Projected annual change in shares outstandingI&#39;ve projected an average annual decrease of 1% in shares outstanding over the next 10 years. This is a reasonably conservative estimate, considering the magnitude of the share buyback program.Projected annual growth rateI&#39;ve projected an average annual growth rate of 15%, which seems to be a fairly conservative estimate considering the company&#39;s long-term earning potential.Minimum annual rate of returnI&#39;ve gone for a desired annual return of 12.5%, which beats the returns of a good <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSFF\">Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF</a> by a decent margin.Margin of safetyWhile Alibaba is a Chinese company that is generally exposed to more regulatory risk, I do believe that my previous assumptions are conservative enough and a 20% margin of safety is sufficient for this calculation.Projected P/EI&#39;ll be assuming a projected P/E of 20, which is, again, a fairly low value compared to the company&#39;s P/E over the years. We could very likely see a much higher P/E than this in the future, but once again, let&#39;s be conservative. For some reference, Alibaba&#39;s current P/E (at the time of writing) is about 28.Price target<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e60a2da9b185d8fe76a2b6a8e23a6704\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>EPS Forecast for Alibaba Stock (Prepared by author)Based on our relatively conservative assumptions, we&#39;ve arrived at a price target of $172.36. This means that if I were to invest in Alibaba at $172.36 a share, I would be getting an average annual return of 12.5% over 10 years. The current price of Alibaba stock sits at just above $110, and this shows that there is tremendous upside based on our current assumptions, which are already on the conservative side.ConclusionWhile Alibaba may face challenges in the future, I do believe that the company is on a great financial trajectory, and has tremendous upside in terms of its valuation. I conclude my analysis with a price target of $172.36, and a &#39;Strong Buy&#39; rating at today&#39;s valuation.</body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Stock: Tremendous Upside Potential</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Stock: Tremendous Upside Potential\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-23 11:52 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497070-alibaba-stock-tremendous-upside-potential>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummaryWith the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen a nice recovery.I believe that despite the possible risks, the stock has tremendous upside given ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497070-alibaba-stock-tremendous-upside-potential\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK1142":"互联网与直销零售","BK1591":"就地过年概念","BK4565":"NFT概念","BK1502":"双十一","BK1517":"云办公","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","BK1608":"元宇宙概念","BK1575":"同股不同权","BK1584":"蚂蚁金服概念","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","PDD":"拼多多","BK1501":"阿里概念股","BK4531":"中概回港概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BABA":"阿里巴巴","NYSE":"纽交所","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4558":"双十一","BK4575":"芯片概念","BK4509":"腾讯概念","BK1588":"回港中概股","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4501":"段永平概念","BK4538":"云计算","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4526":"热门中概股","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","BK4502":"阿里概念","BK1521":"挪威政府全球养老基金持仓","BK1586":"云计算","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497070-alibaba-stock-tremendous-upside-potential","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2221979490","content_text":"SummaryWith the Chinese government announcing its plans to stabilize markets, Alibaba stock has seen a nice recovery.I believe that despite the possible risks, the stock has tremendous upside given the company's financial track record and future earning potential.I initiate coverage on Alibaba using a 10-year EPS forecast model, and give the stock a 'Strong Buy' rating at its current valuation.David Becker/Getty Images NewsAfter the Chinese government promised to stabilize markets and ease crackdowns, Chinese equities saw a huge recovery. Shares of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. ADR (NYSE:NYSE:BABA) rose from the depths of the low 70s to over $110 a share. I believe that the company still has tremendous upside from its current valuation due to its impressive financial track record over the years, and its ability to stay on track in the years to come. Despite an increase of over 50% from its recent low, the company is still undervalued.The crash and the recoveryShares of Alibaba Group sank to a terrifying low of $73.28 a share early last week, after the SEC announced its plans to delist five Chinese companies due to a lack of compliance with auditing requirements. Investors fled from Chinese equities, resulting in a massive plunge in their share prices. Alibaba was no exception, and its stock, which had already taken a beating over the past few weeks, sank to lows that haven't been seen in years. Yet, just when all hope seemed to be lost, the Chinese government stepped in to reassure investors that they would stabilize these turbulent markets, and potentially ease regulations so that Chinese companies can remain listed in overseas markets. The positive news which came mid last week triggered a near-vertical recovery in Chinese equities, whose share prices soared by double digits over the next few days. We now see Alibaba stock trading at over $110 a share, and I believe there's more upside to come.Impressive financialsTo understand how well Alibaba has been doing, let's go over a few financial metrics.Revenue growthAlibaba's revenue growth has remained in the double digits for the past few years. The company earned $182.51 billion HKD in revenue in 2017, and this number has grown to $820.2 billion HKD as of last year's annual report. This represents a net growth in revenue of almost 350% over those 5 years.Alibaba's e-commerce revenue growth (Statista)A quick look at their e-commerce revenue growth in domestic and international markets show that there has been a sustained uptrend in both departments over the past decade, and there is good reason to believe that revenue prospects for the company will remain strong in the years to come.Share buybackAlibaba has announced a massive $25 billion share buyback program, which came shortly after the Chinese government restored investors' faith in Chinese equities. The value of the buyback is almost 10% of the company's current market capitalization, which stands at about $280 billion. This is extremely significant, and represents a substantial growth in stake ownership for the company's shareholders. The fact that the company is financially able to buy back such a large amount of shares is also a good reflection of its ability to generate free cash flows.Earnings per shareAlibaba's diluted EPS has grown from 2.45 in 2017 to 7.82 in 2021, representing an approximate 219% increase over those 5 years. This is a good indication that the company has been greatly profitable over the years. As a result, it is able to distribute more of these profits to its shareholders.Free cash flow growthAlibaba has seen a massive increase in free cash flow, from $72.39 billion HKD in 2017 to $215.66 billion HKD in 2021, representing a near 200% growth over 5 years. This is a good sign that the company is managing its operating expenses and capital expenditures well. In addition, the free cash flow-to-long term debt ratio sits at 1.11 as of 2021, which shows that the company is more than able to pay off its financial obligations. These are very promising signs that the company is in very good financial health, and is at no risk whatsoever of going under.China's growing affluenceAnother important point is that Alibaba thrives in an increasingly affluent market. China's middle class has grown from about 3% of the population in 2000 to over 50% today, and the trend shows no clear signs of pulling back. Projections show that by 2030, most of China's urban households will be in the middle income bracket and above. With an increasingly affluent market to tap into, Alibaba is likely to see a significant and sustained increase in demand for its products. This would hugely benefit the company's financials and help it stay on its impressive trajectory.Potential risksWhile there's a lot to be positive about, there are some undeniable risks that need to be mentioned.Losing market shareWhile Alibaba remains largely dominant in the Chinese market, its market share in the e-commerce industry is starting to fall due to changing consumption habits and a rise in competition. One such competitor is Pinduoduo (NASDAQ:PDD), which has proven to be formidable in the e-commerce business with its innovative methods to appeal to commerce communities. This could present a challenge for Alibaba, and it is not certain whether the company is still able to retain its large market share in the years to come.Regulatory risksWhile the Chinese government has shown signs of regulatory easing, we should never get too comfortable. Regulations concerning Chinese companies are always unpredictable, and the future of Chinese equities still bears a great deal of uncertainty. In addition, the SEC is starting to clamp down harder on foreign companies which are not compliant with any of their auditing requirements. The risks which arise from both sides still exist, and one can never be too careful, especially in today's regulatory climate.Alibaba stock valuationI will be using an EPS forecast model to determine a fair valuation of Alibaba stock. The model will be applied over 10 years, starting from 2021's EPS of 7.82. Before I do this, let me go over some of the metrics I will be using in my calculations.MetricsAssumptions used for EPS forecast model (Prepared by author)Projected annual change in shares outstandingI've projected an average annual decrease of 1% in shares outstanding over the next 10 years. This is a reasonably conservative estimate, considering the magnitude of the share buyback program.Projected annual growth rateI've projected an average annual growth rate of 15%, which seems to be a fairly conservative estimate considering the company's long-term earning potential.Minimum annual rate of returnI've gone for a desired annual return of 12.5%, which beats the returns of a good Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF by a decent margin.Margin of safetyWhile Alibaba is a Chinese company that is generally exposed to more regulatory risk, I do believe that my previous assumptions are conservative enough and a 20% margin of safety is sufficient for this calculation.Projected P/EI'll be assuming a projected P/E of 20, which is, again, a fairly low value compared to the company's P/E over the years. We could very likely see a much higher P/E than this in the future, but once again, let's be conservative. For some reference, Alibaba's current P/E (at the time of writing) is about 28.Price targetEPS Forecast for Alibaba Stock (Prepared by author)Based on our relatively conservative assumptions, we've arrived at a price target of $172.36. This means that if I were to invest in Alibaba at $172.36 a share, I would be getting an average annual return of 12.5% over 10 years. The current price of Alibaba stock sits at just above $110, and this shows that there is tremendous upside based on our current assumptions, which are already on the conservative side.ConclusionWhile Alibaba may face challenges in the future, I do believe that the company is on a great financial trajectory, and has tremendous upside in terms of its valuation. I conclude my analysis with a price target of $172.36, and a 'Strong Buy' rating at today's valuation.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":213,"commentSize":32,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":3,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}