To The Moon

Recent headwinds affecting much of the global automotive industry are particularly difficult to navigate for companies in early stages of growth. Chinese EV maker Nio is one of those, and its recent production has been affected by the global semiconductor shortage and other raw material challenges.

But Nio is still growing with plans to expand its production capacity and geographic footprint this year. When it reported its fourth quarter and full year 2021 results, the company predicted its first quarter 2022 deliveries would remain relatively in line with the prior quarter. But a look at where it sits at this stage of growth compared to EV leader Tesla might give investors more optimism.

Nio will begin delivering its ET7 luxury sedan next week. Image source: Nio.

Delivery concerns will pass

While investors were somewhat disappointed with Nio's guidance for March deliveries, the trend still continues to be higher. The following chart shows trailing-12-month (TTM) delivery data since the fall of 2020.

Data source: Nio financial releases. Chart by author.

The recent slowdown came first from the company's own work to retool its lines in preparation for its two new sedans that will begin deliveries this year. Another impact has been general supply chain issues being felt by many global automakers. But demand in both China and Europe remains strong. With the maintenance work complete and the supply chain situation likely to ease at some point, Nio deliveries should ramp back up to the higher rate of growth than it has experienced in recent months.

Sales were solid

While delivery numbers disappointed investors, Nio's revenue growth remains strong. Some of that added revenue comes from its subscription battery swap service. That offering is slated to expand and helps differentiate the company from competitors. Overall revenue for 2021 grew more than 125% over 2020, and exceeded the equivalent of $5 billion.

Data source: Nio financial releases. Chart by author.

That kind of sharp increase is reminiscent of the early days of Tesla's growth. And just as Tesla expanded its product line with the addition of its SUV offerings, Nio is poised to add two sedans to its offerings this year. As Tesla added vehicles, its revenue continued to soar as the chart below shows. Nio could see similar results.

Tesla reported net income of $5.5 billion in 2021.

Valuation has improved

Even prior to the recent earnings release, Nio shares have been in decline. That came from the aforementioned production concerns, along with risks related to geopolitical events including the war in Ukraine and regulatory worries in both China and the U.S.

With shares down nearly 40% year-to-date, Nio's valuation has dropped to a market capitalization of about $30 billion. A price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of under 6 takes some of the valuation risk down for investors. While there remain risks out of the company's control, Nio should continue to thrive operationally. Demand is strong, and it will begin shipping its new ET7 luxury sedan next week. As it expands outside of China, vehicle delivery growth should reaccelerate. That makes now a good time to get some exposure.