美联储加息风暴，比预期来得更猛烈

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美联储加息风暴，比预期来得更猛烈

华尔街见闻2022-04-25

摘要：联邦基金期货市场已经消化了下个月加息50个基点、6月加息75个基点、7月加息50个基点的预期。“不要对抗美联储”一直是华尔街的座右铭，尽管美联储迄今为止在对抗通胀的战斗中一直表现得不太情愿。过去一周，美联储官员加大了反通胀的力度，鲍威尔几乎承诺在5月3-4日的下一次FOMC会议上，将联邦基金目标区间上调50个基点。有“鹰王”之称的圣路易斯联储主席布拉德则提出了加息75个基点的可能性，这是...

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Watch网站截至上周五的数据，7月美联储关键利率升至2.00%-2.25%的可能性已达到87%，一周前这一比例还不到16%。本周美联储进入静默期这些预测都对股市造成重创，上周标普500指数和纳斯达克综合指数连续第三周下跌，分别下跌2.75%和3.83%，道琼斯工业平均指数连续第四周下跌，下跌1.86%；短期国债市场在加息预期下的调整幅度最大，两年期美债收益率上涨27个基点，至2.713%，10年期美债收益率接近3%，至2.905%，上涨9.7个基点。与市场走势形成鲜明对比的是，美联储政策立场的实际调整幅度很小，其基金利率目标区间为0.25%-0.50%，仅比接近零的疫情期间水平高出25个基点，而且最近一周，美联储高达8.9万亿美元的资产负债表，又增加了100亿美元，市场预计FOMC将在下月的会议上宣布其开始缩减资产负债表的“作战计划”。正如克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特(Loretta Mester)上周五接受CNBC采访时承认的那样，美联储的目标是收紧金融环境，尽管她表示不需要太过激进。对于今年无处可躲的投资者来说，这很难让他们感到宽慰。今年，传统的60%股票和40%债券的投资组合对通胀和利率上升提供的保护作用微乎其微。数据显示，代表60/40投资组合的先锋平衡指数基金(Vanguard Balanced Index Fund Institutional Shares，VBAIX)今年截至上周五的总回报率为-11.13%。本周，美联储按照惯例进入静默期，投资者将从中得到喘息。由于加息50个基点的可能性似乎已经确定，需要关注的关键数据包括美国一季度就业成本指数，这是美联储衡量通胀的关键指标，德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)的经济学家预计，该数据将较上年同期增长4.6%，为1991年以来最大增幅。这应该会促使美联储官员采取行动。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9084656780,"gmtCreate":1650859727787,"gmtModify":1676534805202,"author":{"id":"3561685412383683","authorId":"3561685412383683","name":"Ryan83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bcd86953c2d5f137322ed0f41d9b1b76","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"OK&nbsp;","listText":"OK&nbsp;","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9084656780","repostId":2230611663,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":76,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}