Alibaba Group: Munger Position Halved, How About Yours?

seekingalpha2022-05-03

SummaryFor investors who take Charlie Munger’s action into their consideration, his Alibaba holdings now create some ambiguity.He doubled his stake in Alibaba twice in 2021 Q3 and 2021 Q4, but then ...

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Comment（181）

HH浩
·2022-05-10
Munger has foresight to sell alibaba and now he can buy back much cheaper.
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AlanChanyh
·2022-05-03
The fact is baba is still down. Nobody knows when it is going to come up with all these policy. Please do not talk about long term investment. If everything you have invested is losing money and you are using this to console yourself then I have nothing to say. You buy the dip and it keep dropping. Have you ever wonder why?
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18
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rogerl
·2022-05-03
Like
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1
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Steven Tay
·2022-05-03
Ok
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1
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EdmundSan
·2022-05-03
K
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2
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EdmundSan
·2022-05-03
K
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1
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KhimTan
·2022-05-03
K
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1
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Derrick0359
·2022-05-03
Ok
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2
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YJ1234
·2022-05-03
Ok
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3
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KeN3
·2022-05-03
Good read. High risk but also high returns
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5
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HUATBIG
·2022-05-03
Like
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3
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SteadyDoesIt
·2022-05-03
Still a lot of risk
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Lulup
·2022-05-03
ok
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Iverader
·2022-05-03
Baba going to the grave
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4
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StarGalaxy
·2022-05-03
Ok
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3
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Menaka
·2022-05-03
Good reading
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iamjingxian
·2022-05-03
Ok
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3
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crtyn
·2022-05-03
Ok
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3
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Sena11
·2022-05-03
Like pls
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5
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iamjingxian
·2022-05-03
Ok
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Indeed, the legendary billionaire doubled down on his BABA position twice in 2021 amid market concerns, and both times created a news splash and large stock price movements. But the most recent filing from the Daily Journal Corporation (DJCO) reported that his BABA position was reduced by about a half as you can see from the chart below. To add to the ambiguity, he has also announced that he has given up his role as Chairman of the Daily Journal Corporation, a position held since 1977. Going forward, Munger will remain a director and keep being involved in its securities portfolio.This article is my attempt to interpret Munger’s thought process surrounding his BABA positions. As his role at DJCO winds down, we can no longer rely on his actions as guidance in our BABA decisions and we will have to rely on our own judgment more. By reengineering Munger’s thoughts, we can gain insights for ourselves not only on BABA but also on other investment opportunities.You will see next that my view is that what has happened between 2021 Q3 and Q4 best illustrates Munger’s wisdom of buying good business on the operating table, and I still hold this view after DJCO trimmed the BABA position recently.Source: dataroma.comMunger and BABAThe following chart summarizes the key events that led to Munger’s actions. As you can see from the chart below, he started buying BABA shares in 2021 Q1, after a large correction in its share price caused by the cancelation of the highly anticipated Ant Group IPO. He then doubled down his stake in Alibaba twice: first in 2021 Q3 and then again in 2021 Q4.There are certainly good reasons for Munger’s decision. As mentioned above, the market reacted too quickly based on perception (based on the information available at that time). As a result, even though BABA’s core business is intact, its valuation became too compressed when Munger pulled the trigger to double down his bets. It is a textbook reflection of his wisdom of buying a good business on the operating table. At the prices he bought into BABA, it was valued as a terminally cheap and stagnating business, while its core fundamentals not only remain intact but also well-positioned for growth, as elaborated in the next section immediately below.Yahoo Finance and AuthorBABA’s core business remains intactFirstly, my view is that many of the ongoing uncertainties as shown above (the Russian-Ukraine war, COVID interruptions, and the delisting fear) are only temporary and have little long-term relevance to BABA's existing core retail business. Secondly, the China government has expressed commitment to stabilizing the market and stimulating the economy. And key players like BABA will directly benefit from the government support, as reflected in the large share price rallies shortly after such announcements.Under the above background, now let's look at BABA’s core retail business. BABA reported a total of 1.28 billion Annual Active Consumers Globally for the twelve months ended December 31, 2021. It is an increase of approximately 43 million from the twelve months ended September 30, 2021. This includes 979 million consumers in China and 301 million consumers overseas, representing a quarterly net increase of over 26 million (2.6%) and 16 million (about 5%), respectively. Such growth rates may be lower than its faster pace in the past. However, they are still very healthy growth rates at BABA’s scale. And again, the market overaction has compressed its valuation so much so that it is now viewed as a terminally cheap and stagnating business. But the reality is the opposite.BABA Earnings reportLooking forward, I see the business well-positioned for future growth and the fear overblown for a few key considerations. As aforementioned, upon rational examination, many recent developments are not only temporary but also irrelevant or even positive for BABA. For example, in Sept 2021, BABA made a pledge of 100 billion RMB (or about $15.5B or $3.1B per year) to the Chinese common prosperity fund. To me, this is a positive sign because it shows that the Chinese government is working out a path forward for BABA and hints at what a “new norm” could be for BABA. And also the recent separation of its China retail and international retail is also a positive development in my view. it compartmentalized the regulatory complications and risks for its core business. BABA is now well-positioned to capture the international market. Cainiao continues to expand its global infrastructure by strengthening its end-to-end logistics capabilities, including ehubs, line-haul, sorting centers, and last-mile network.BABA’s other high-growth opportunitiesBesides its core bread-and-butter business, BABA is also well-positioned to capitalize on its investments in other high-growth and high-margin opportunities both domestically and internationally. It is in a key strategic position to capitalize on its local and cross-border supply and global infrastructure in many key areas.Its cloud segment is one of the highlights. The cloud market in China is projected to grow from RMB 0.2 Trillion in 2020 to RMB 1.0 Trillion in 2025, a 5x growth in 5 years. BABA’s cloud computing revenue grew by 50% year-on-year in its last fiscal year (which ended on 31 March 2021) despite losing a major customer in the March quarter. Since then, its cloud segment grew by another 20% year-over-year to RMB19.5B million (US$3.1B million) in the most recent quarter. At the same time, its cloud revenue is also becoming more diversified. The revenue sources used to be dominated by the internet industry (about 60%). As of the last quarter, the share of the revenue from the internet industry has decreased to about 48%. The solid 20% year-over-year growth reflected robust growth from other key sectors such as the financial and telecommunication industries.BABA earnings reportValuation too cheap to ignoreMunger bought BABA shares on the operating table when it was valued as a terminally cheap business. The valuation is still too cheap to ignore. BABA remains deeply undervalued in terms of all the metrics, net earnings, free cash flow, and assets. As seen from the chart below, it’s current valued at about 12x FW PE. And according to consensus estimates, its valuation at the current price will be in the single-digit range starting in 2025 and at about only 6x by 2028.At the same time, there is a large cash position on its balance sheet, making the valuation even more compressed than on the surface. Currently, about one-third of its market cap is in its current assets, and more than a half in its current assets, properties, and equity investments. With its China commerce raking in more than $90B of sales per year, the current valuation is equivalent to A) purchasing its equity at book value, B) paying for its China commerce operation at about 1.6x sales (Amazon is valued at about 3.5x sales in contrast), and C) getting all its other operations for free.Seeking AlphaConclusions and risksThis article attempts to reengineer Munger’s thought process surrounding his BABA positions. My view is that what has happened between 2021 Q3 and Q4 is another textbook illustration of his wisdom of buying good business on the operating table. And I still hold this view after DJCO trimmed the BABA position recently. In particular,My view is that as his role at DJCO winds down, the trim does not reflect his view anymore. At this point, BABA’s core businesses remain intact and are well-positioned for many high-growth areas especially its cloud computing and CAINIAO logistic infrastructure.Many current fears (listed below) are overblown or irrelevant to the business fundamentals in the long term. On the opposite, in the nearer term, BABA investment is further protected at this point by its large share repurchase plan and the Chinese government to stabilize the market and its economy. Its $25B share repurchase plan will shrink the share count by almost 9% at its current price. Given its current undervaluation, it will be highly accreditive to boost shareholder returns.Finally, BABA investment does involve considerable risks and is definitely not suitable for all investment styles. The key risks as I see are elaborated below.First, large price volatilities. its stock price has recently become dominated by market sentiment and disconnected from fundamentals. Its stock prices easily fluctuated 30%+ in a few days or even a single day recently in response to news and sentiments that may or may not have direct relevance to its business fundamentals.Second, the VIE structure risk could lead to a 100% loss. The Chinese government could confiscate foreign investments in BABA if they decide foreign investments made in BABA under the VEI structure are illegal according to Chinese law.Third, the delisting risk could also lead to a substantial loss. It led to a 20%+ loss following the next few days in the recent DiDi delisting example.Lastly, given the above large uncertainties, potential investors may consider a long call option to limit total exposure risks. As detailed in my earlier article, I think the market’s perception of its price variation is too conservative, resulting in a mispricing of its implied volatility.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9065393077,"gmtCreate":1652142424899,"gmtModify":1676535038456,"author":{"id":"3582015516749888","authorId":"3582015516749888","name":"HH浩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2639351c97027c6f71c4d9729ef216d8","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3582015516749888","idStr":"3582015516749888"},"htmlText":"Munger has foresight to sell alibaba and now he can buy back much cheaper.&nbsp;","listText":"Munger has foresight to sell alibaba and now he can buy back much cheaper.&nbsp;","text":"Munger has foresight to sell alibaba and now he can buy back much cheaper.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9065393077","repostId":2232742796,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9061325299,"gmtCreate":1651572772776,"gmtModify":1676534929075,"author":{"id":"3577802495581908","authorId":"3577802495581908","name":"AlanChanyh","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b073a07f77dbe6b3bec6b12311fde6bd","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3577802495581908","idStr":"3577802495581908"},"htmlText":"The fact is baba is still down. Nobody knows when it is going to come up with all these policy. Please do not talk about long term investment. If everything you have invested is losing money and&nbsp;you are using this to console yourself then I have nothing to say. You buy the dip and it keep dropping. Have you ever wonder why?&nbsp;","listText":"The fact is baba is still down. Nobody knows when it is going to come up with all these policy. Please do not talk about long term investment. If everything you have invested is losing money and&nbsp;you are using this to console yourself then I have nothing to say. You buy the dip and it keep dropping. Have you ever wonder why?&nbsp;","text":"The fact is baba is still down. Nobody knows when it is going to come up with all these policy. Please do not talk about long term investment. If everything you have invested is losing money and you are using this to console yourself then I have nothing to say. You buy the dip and it keep dropping. Have you ever wonder why?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":18,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9061325299","repostId":2232742796,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9061312032,"gmtCreate":1651566542735,"gmtModify":1676534928302,"author":{"id":"3572005079747641","authorId":"3572005079747641","name":"rogerl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70a75678cb06207361b08aa8e42a9ecd","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3572005079747641","idStr":"3572005079747641"},"htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9061312032","repostId":2232742796,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9061332147,"gmtCreate":1651564821266,"gmtModify":1676534928067,"author":{"id":"4099285253763630","authorId":"4099285253763630","name":"Steven 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read. High risk but also high returns&nbsp;","listText":"Good read. High risk but also high returns&nbsp;","text":"Good read. High risk but also high 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