苹果汽车的8大技术猜想

42号车库2022-05-07

苹果电动车或于2024年亮相，辅助驾驶水平、V2X（车联网应用）、动力电池等8大技术最值得期待。知名资讯机构 IHS Markit 近期发布了一篇关于苹果汽车项目的报告，其内容可谓短小精悍。报告中 IHS Markit 公司内 10 位来自供应链、辅助驾驶、半导体传感器和车辆动力学等不同领域背景的研究者，合力整理了关于苹果汽车的 5 个关键问题和 8 个技术领域的推测——他们写到，“苹果电动车”在...

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snow mak
·2022-05-08
👌
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snow mak
·2022-05-08
👌
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1
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淋淼淼
·2022-05-08
Ok
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KaijunWang
·2022-05-08
蹭熱度
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crazybee1235
·2022-05-08
hi
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crazybee1235
·2022-05-08
hi
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点点的小爸爸
·2022-05-07
蘋果的激光雷達是哪家？
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TakionTek
·2022-05-07
好好造手機筆電吧，別競爭錯對手，要不會很慘。
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小可爱0958
·2022-05-07
還是有好多蘋果的愛好者。
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微尘VS深海
·2022-05-07
不要不要，我只要小米汽車✌✌
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ivyteo6911
·2022-05-07
🙏🙏🙏
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大雁塔
·2022-05-07
蘋果具備長期投資的原因
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AL2045
·2022-05-07
猜想？幻想吧。蘋果研發車的團隊都解散了。不知道麼？那麼多年連個手機鏡頭都做不平。還造個啥車呢。特斯拉三個Giga工廠，每個工廠都已經能一次衝壓直接一次成型鍛造半個車身了。以後自動駕駛/機器人有Dojo和Nurolink，地下有Hyperloop，天上有Starlink/SpaceX，媒體端有Twitter。蘋果？蘋果除了改改外形還會啥。喬大爺要能回來，看到蘋果現在的產品，會自殺的吧。
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iPhone、掀起消费电子市场的腥风血雨开始，苹果给人的印象一直是“不鸣则已，一鸣惊人”——苹果产品硬件软件、用户体验等方面上优秀的传统艺能给这辆车做了信用背书：苹果出品必是精品。苹果应该只会在有把握成为领域内最优秀的存在时，才会推出产品。换而言之，即使经过广泛探索和投入，如果不能达到苹果的标准，项目就会被抛弃——苹果支持自由放置设备的无线充电垫 AirPower 和 iPhone 8 在同一场发布会亮相，却在 2019 年苹果工程师的一封对外邮件中被打上“无法达到我们的高标准”的标签，黯然退场。IHS Markit 认为，苹果对汽车领域始于 2014 年的投资具有战略性意义。虽然苹果 8 年来在汽车领域耕耘的成果尚不明确——是像特斯拉 Model S 这样的一款车，还是像华为那样的乘用车解决方案？IHS Markit 指出，尽管不知道苹果的汽车项目最终会以什么样貌面世，但 Project Titan 成功推出的可能性超过 50%，即使在汽车领域，苹果暂时不能像在消费电子领域（iPhone、Mac 和 Apple Watch 等产品）那样获得有优势的市场份额。Q2：苹果汽车会是什么样？IHS Markit 暂时还没有确认苹果会专注于汽车的哪个领域，但假设苹果汽车主要面向家庭，那么这辆车尺寸可能介于特斯拉 Model X（中大型 SUV）和本田 SUV e:concept（紧凑型 SUV）之间。苹果产品的核心是“提供最佳用户体验”，那么苹果汽车也不例外。不过凡事也不绝对，苹果有为性能和设计舍弃用户体验开倒车的先例：为了防水而机身零件在 iPhone 7 系列上取消了耳机孔、用清一色的 Type-C 接口取代了 Mac 的 Magsafe 和 USB 接口以提升传输和充电速度。小鹏汽车 CEO 何小鹏 2021 年曾说过，辅助驾驶技术的核心是数据。从公共渠道了解的信息来看，苹果“超过 60 辆”的测试车队即使从 2014 年开始全年无休地道路测试，积累的数据也很难让苹果在辅助驾驶方面有很大优势——IHS Markit 认为，从专利和道路测试分析来看，苹果汽车在辅助驾驶和电池方面可能没有重大优势或突破，产品的重点应该在设计和功能上。Q3：苹果汽车何时会发布？IHS Markit 对这一问题的回答就很直白：有消息称苹果会在 2024 年推出 Project Titan 对应的纯电动汽车，但这一时间窗口非常紧凑。考虑到采购、工业化生产和制造的周期，如果苹果真的打算在 2024 年发布汽车，那么很可能这辆车会是苹果和现有的主机厂或供应商合作设计生产的。但如果苹果汽车的生产依赖于其他合作伙伴代工，那么年产量不太可能达到预期的 150,000 辆。Q4：全自研还是部分整合？IHS Markit 认为，与大体量的 OEM（原始设备制造商）合作能够让苹果避免重新设计新的制造工艺，不必像特斯拉那样在生产制造上亲力亲为。特斯拉在各个领域做的，是专注于提供面向客户的功能和服务，并缩短交付时间。苹果如果要复制在消费电子领域的成功，则需要严格控制硬件和软件的开发整合，不过这么做也会让 OEM 伙伴沦为单纯的代工方，这也是许多 OEM 不希望成为的角色。Q5：成为苹果供应商有何利弊？IHS Markit 认为，苹果与麦格纳（Magna）或 LG 这样的合作伙伴合作的可能性比依赖传统汽车 OEM 供应商的可能性更高。LG 很有可能与苹果合作汽车项目，因为 LG 已经是苹果当前供应链的一部分。拿下苹果汽车项目将是有力背书，但以苹果在各方面的野心，与苹果合作造车将是一个极具挑战性的工作。三、苹果汽车的关键技术预测1. 辅助驾驶水平激光雷达更可能用于车内的感知，包括面部识别和手势控制。在内饰方面使用激光雷达完成智能座舱的功能，对苹果来说绝对是驾轻就熟的——iPhone 12 Pro 系列和同期的 iPad Pro 已经用上了小型激光雷达，扫描的精度和面积对于座舱环境感知和手势识别绰绰有余，满足支付安全要求的 Face ID 用来解锁车辆和用户识别也是小菜一碟。对于苹果来说，直接推出具有 L4 级别辅助驾驶功能的车辆是一个“巨大的赌注”：除了全球各地监管部门的法规批准之外，相关移动出行服务的收费政策也需要进一步许可。基于自动驾驶技术的出行即服务（Mobility as a Service，MaaS）业务能够很好地拓展苹果软件生态和用户体验的范围。并且现有 MaaS 业务的公司（如谷歌 Waymo、通用旗下 Cruise 等）并不自己生产车辆，苹果汽车量产能和未来可能的 MaaS 业务很好地匹配。但对于非商业用途的苹果汽车，车辆很有可能一开始就支持 L2 或 L3 级别的人机共驾，包括自动紧急制动（AEB）等基础 ADAS 功能。2. 汽车应用的开发在能让苹果汽车脱颖而出的若干方面中，苹果的应用生态和云端服务一定会起到重要作用。苹果会在自己设计生产的汽车中内置 App Store 可以说是板上钉钉，而且苹果很有可能会提供对开发者较为友好的开发框架，协助第三方开发者编写面向苹果汽车的软件应用。3. V2X（车联网应用）苹果非常有可能为车辆配备基于 5G 通讯的 V2X 功能。伴随着苹果对辅助驾驶和自动化领域的研发投资，V2X 技术不出意外会出现在苹果设计的汽车上。V2X 的相关方面也是苹果专利申请最活跃的领域之一，包括从导航界面、消息通知样式、数据来源选择和非标准道路信息的识别等等。4. 动力电池除了中国的众多电池企业，韩国 SK Innovation 也是苹果汽车电池技术合作的强有力竞争者。苹果汽车项目的动力电池设计会是怎样，很大程度上取决于苹果到底是自行设计研发然后交给 ODM 厂商代工（例如富士康、LG 和麦格纳），还是是直接使用其他主机厂现有的车辆平台或者方案。不同方案下的电池包总成会有很大的不一样。5. 车身结构和材料苹果曾申请过车辆四轮独立力学应用的专利，用于和 ClearMotion 这样的智能底盘悬架公司竞争。苹果汽车项目的白车身结构设计会致力于满足当下和未来的安全标准，确保在不改变车身结构设计的前提下，能够通过以后新增的碰撞安全测试。6. 半导体设计苹果一直在发展自己的芯片设计能力：2008 年苹果收购了 P.A. Semi 半导体公司，又在 2019 年收购了英特尔智能手机调制解调器（基带芯片）业务。IHS Markit 认为，由于算力的制约，苹果不太可能直接把手机端的 A 系列处理器直接用于车辆辅助驾驶功能的计算，不过考虑到苹果在移动端 arm 架构处理器领域的设计能力，基于现有架构给车辆辅助驾驶设计专用芯片也非常有可能。此外，近年来汽车半导体部件的占比已经以 7% 的速度持续增长多年，苹果在这一领域的优势会为其贡献巨大的价值。7. 软件能力苹果设计的核心是顶尖硬件、强大自研软件能力和服务之间的紧密结合。这种贯穿苹果所有产品的特质非常有可能延续到“Apple Car”上。按照苹果以往在消费电子产品领域的风格，苹果汽车领域的软件战略会比大多数传统汽车制造厂商更深入，包括操作系统、中间层软件、数据分析和移动联通功能在内的领域都要由苹果完全掌控。8. 04UI/UX（用户界面和用户体验设计）在众多设计风格中，苹果最有可能延续 iOS 和 MacOS 上明了简约的设计语言来和特斯拉抗衡，包括一定的实体按键、方向盘和中控屏幕上的触摸交互。苹果围绕 AR-HUD（支持增强现实的平视显示器）交互注册了大量专利——“Apple Car”可能强调突出的，是基于 AR-HUD 展开的人机交互。相比燃油车型需要放置发动机、变速器和离合器，电动汽车的前机舱有更充裕的空间供 AR-HUD 设备发挥布置，优秀的 AR-HUD 完全可像 Model 3 那样取消仪表，让驾驶员视野更宽敞通透。车辆使用的显示面板方面，由于消费电子领域三星和京东方已经向苹果大量供应显示面板，这两家深度参与到苹果汽车项目的显示技术研发也不足为奇。就像 iPhone 13 Pro 系列的 OLED 显示面板由三星独家供应、iPhone 13 系列素质稍低的 OLED 屏幕则混用京东方、三星面板的策略一样，苹果汽车上的重要显示面板可能由三星负责，其他需要控制成本的显示器则会让京东方供货。除了屏幕上的触摸，苹果还会在汽车项目上使用其他“较为隐蔽的触控功能”，例如支持触控的柔软车门内衬、能够提供压力数据的门把手覆盖材料等等。在材料领域，处于领先地位的 3M 公司可能会和苹果展开合作。写在最后别的不说，如果苹果真的在 2024 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