Alibaba is slated for its FQ4 and FY22 earnings release on May 26. Investors will parse its FY23 guidance carefully on management's optimism of a bottom in consumer spending.
This will be an important release because it will show how BABA fared amid China's COVID-19 lockdowns.
For the fiscal fourth quarter, the Bloomberg Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at RMB200.599 billion, adjusted net profit is pegged at RMB18.667 billion, adjusted EPS is pegged at RMB7.154.
The picture was not as rosy in the same quarter last year. In the March quarter of 2021, BABA took a record-breaking $2.8 billion fine, because of alleged anti-competitive conduct. Later on in the year the company suffered a number of other costly measures, including new regulations and a tax rate increase.
Because of the fine, Alibaba's Q4 2021 GAAP earnings were negative. Operating income was negative as well. BABA booked the entire $2.8 billion fine in Q4, then paid it in two installments over the next two quarters. This means that Alibaba's upcoming release will feature some very soft comparisons. To show positive year-over-year earnings growth in Q4, BABA will only need to avoid losing money. That won't be particularly hard to achieve. Alibaba has very large margins and very rarely runs losses. The company would have been profitable in the previous Q4 had it not been for the fine. So, it will probably turn some kind of profit in the fourth quarter, and deliver positive growth.
Factors to Consider
Alibaba's strong efforts to add value to consumers and sellers through the consumer segment, product enrichment and platform innovations are expected to have driven growth in its e-commerce business in the to-be-reported quarter by driving its customer momentum.
The infusion of advanced technologies such as Big Data and AI into BABA's e-commerce platform is anticipated to have continued helping it deliver enhanced customer experience.
Apart from this, benefits from the Sun Art consolidation, along with a spike in the average unit price per click and solid contributions from new monetization formats, are expected to have driven growth in the China commerce retail revenues in the quarter under review.
Well-performing Lazada and AliExpress are likely to have aided the performance of Alibaba's International commerce retail business in the fiscal fourth quarter.
The increasing number of paying members on the alibaba.com platform, coupled with solid momentum across cross-border-related value-added services, is expected to have contributed well to the International commerce wholesale business's growth.
Apart from e-commerce, the company's robust cloud segment is expected to have sustained its momentum in the fiscal fourth quarter on a growing number of paying customers.
However, slowing demand from customers in the online entertainment and education fields is anticipated to have been a negative for the cloud business of Alibaba in the quarter to be reported.
Softness in online physical goods GMV on the Taobao and Tmall marketplaces is expected to have acted as a headwind. Sluggishness in Trendyol is likely to have impacted the quarterly performance.
Uncertainties associated with the ongoing pandemic are anticipated to have been concerning in the quarter under review.
Competitive Landscape
One of the big advantages Alibaba has going into its upcoming release is its competitive position.
JD is Alibaba's biggest Chinese competitor. It actually generates more revenue than BABA, but has much less profit. Its business model involves holding inventory, which eats into margins. This leaves it with less money to invest into other ventures, which BABA is doing with its cloud business.
Pinduoduo is a fast-growing agricultural goods group buying service. As of now, it doesn't sell anywhere near enough different products to be a major competitor to BABA, but its model is popular enough that it could become a competitor if it branched out into more product categories.
Tencent is not a big competitor to Alibaba on the whole. However, its WeChat app competes with Alipay. In 2021, the Chinese government forced BABA and Tencent to allow each other's apps on their respective marketplaces.
Western eCommerce companies don't pose much of a threat to Alibaba in China. They may pose a threat to its international expansion though. Alibaba is currently ramping up operations in Europe, where Amazon and eBay are already established. It is currently ahead of Amazonin Eastern Europe.
Q4 Earnings Could Be A Significant Catalyst
As China's bellwether stock, given its significant exposure to China's consumer discretionary spending, the market would parse Alibaba's guidance very carefully.
Its FQ4 earnings release on May 26 could be a massive near-term catalyst for its stock to re-rate moving forward.