Tesla: Timing Is Everything

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Tesla: Timing Is Everything

seekingalpha2022-05-19

SummaryYou hear a lot about timing when it comes to the stock market.“You can’t time the market” is one of the most often used maxims I’m sure many of you have heard, and even more adhere to. ...

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RW5
·2022-05-19
O
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RW5
·2022-05-19
I
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renity7
·2022-05-19
I like the different prospect to see from different age group. Genuine sharing that provide a different way to view. Thumbs up [Like]
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Xianglaw
·2022-05-19
Thanks for sharing
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MSTAN
·2022-05-19
👌👌
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OJC
·2022-05-19
🚀🚀🚀
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OJC
·2022-05-19
🚀🚀🚀
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Zeniv
·2022-05-19
Thanks
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Tlc
·2022-05-19
Thx for sharing
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Nanamoney
·2022-05-19
Agreed
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Derrickmin
·2022-05-19
Nice sharing
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Grest
·2022-05-19
.
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ParrySKLow
·2022-05-19
Nice
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Wroy
·2022-05-19
like pls
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WDnemo
·2022-05-19
Who is gonna to hold the can?
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Hellokitty8
·2022-05-19
Like pls thanks
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YS_ZENG
·2022-05-19
Tks for sharing Pls like
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png
·2022-05-19
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OH WEI XIANG
·2022-05-19
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jack_paing
·2022-05-19
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Nonetheless, I beg to differ.You can time the market, albeit not perfectly. That being said, I have just bought back into Tesla after selling based on the recent 25% pullback.Even so, I do agree, \"time in\" the market, not \"timing\" the market, creates true wealth, as my father would say.In the following piece, I will expound on my thoughts regarding market timing and explain why I bought back into Tesla.Sjo/iStock Unreleased via Getty ImagesWhy now is an ideal time to buy TeslaYes, yes I know you can't time the markets. Yet, you can make an educated determination as to when the best time to buy or sell a position in a stock may be. How else would you be able to buy low and sell high, as they say? Like my father always said, “At some point you have to take profits to make profits.” Meaning, it’s all unrealized paper gains until you actually sell. Now let’s get down to business. The following are the primary reasons I sold Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) in the first place and then bought it back recently after a 25% pullback.First things firstI would like to set the stage regarding what “kind” of stock I believe Tesla is. I see a lot articles and pundits arguing Tesla is a “car” stock. The car stock cadre are always the uber bears. They list off several of Tesla’s incredible, or incredulous (depending on your viewpoint), fundamental statistics. The fact Tesla’s market cap of $764 billion is greater than all the other car company’s stocks combined, the forward P/E ratio of 48.20, P/S ratio of 13, P/B ratio of 23, and last but not least, the P/FCF ratio of 53. I must admit those fundamental statistics appear extremely outlandish.The problem is, Tesla is not a car stock, so the entire argument is futile. Furthermore, these statistics are based on present metrics. Tesla’s stock trades on future projected results. Let me explain.Tesla is not a “car” stockI submit Tesla is not a car stock. It’s a long duration \"story\" stock. These types of stock’s occur throughout all sectors. Moreover, their valuations are based in large part on potential cash flows expected in the distant future. They're commonly referred to as \"long-duration assets.\"Tesla’s stock definitely fits the bill of a long-duration asset “story” stock. In fact, I surmise it has reached “cult” stock status based on the reverence its shareholders display. When the bulls and bears begin debating the sky-high valuation of Tesla, it's more akin to the rumble between the Greasers and the Socs in the movie \"The Outsiders\" than anything else. What’s more, the Tesla bulls do have some ammunition when it come to their lofty projections. Here's why.Tesla revenue 5 year chart5-year revenue growth (YCharts)Tesla gross profit 5-year chart5-year Gross profit Growth (YCharts)Tesla’s revenue and gross profits are increasing by leaps and bounds. On top of this, Tesla’s sales for the recent quarter were up 80% and EPS up a whopping 640% quarter over quarter. Additionally, EPS had growth at a 50% clip for the past five years and is expected to grow by 40% for the next five years. So, as you can see there is a case to be made Tesla deserves an elevated valuation. Now let’s tackle the competition aspect of the equation.Lots of new competition, yes but…There's a lot of new EV competitors in the space. There's no disputing this. My second choice is Ford (F) which just introduced the new EV Ford F150 Lightning. Yet, Tesla does have several first mover advantages over the competition. The primary one is Tesla’s charging infrastructure.Tesla’s vastly superior charging infrastructureMy friend and fellow CNBC compatriot Brian “Sully” Sullivan recently performed a very enlightening experiment where he went on a long-distance road trip across California in a non-Tesla EV. You can watch the short video of the results of the trip here. Needless to say, it was an eye-opener. The bottom line is, the other EV car companies have a long way to go to catch up with Tesla in regards to charging stations. See graphic of Tesla super-charging stations across North America.Tesla Super charging station mapTesla North American Supercharging Station Map (Tesla.com)With 30,000+ Superchargers, Tesla owns and operates the largest global, fast charging network in the world. The charging stations are located on major routes and near convenient amenities. Furthermore, based on Sully’s experiment, the competition is woefully behind the curve. Nonetheless, the Biden administration has allocated billions to get EV charging infrastructure in place. Even so, based on past experience, I don’t have a lot of faith in the government’s execution. Government projects rarely come in on time and almost always over budget. So, I see Tesla’s lead in charging stations as a major competitive advantage.The bottom line is, Tesla doesn’t trade on fundamentals or valuation at all. It’s a story stock as I stated earlier. Furthermore, I have held the stock for the past 10 years in a tax advantaged account with substantial unrealized gains in the position. As my father instilled in me, I believe it’s “time in” the market, not “timing” the market, that creates true wealth. At this point in time, I have well over a million-dollar net worth based on this fact.Tesla 10-year return on investmentI made my initial investment in Tesla back in 2012 and have held through the many highs and lows over the last 10 years.Tesla 10-year chartTesla Long-term Chart (Finviz)A $1,000 investment in Tesla in 2012 would be worth over $150,000 now, that’s more than a 18,000% return. A similar investment in the S&P 500 would have given you an approximate 350% return. One of the primary reasons I sold was the fact I'm 10 years older now. At nearly, 60, my priorities have changed. I'm transitioning from a primarily growth portfolio to an income and dividend retirement portfolio.Even so, I'm not dead yet and saw an opportunity to jump back in to Tesla after a 25% drawdown. What’s more, I posit Tesla’s stock trades on the technical, not fundamental status. In fact, the stock just bounced off major support. Let me explain.Tesla technical analysisTesla’s stock fallen 25% since I took profits on my long-term position.Tesla current chartTesla Current Chart (Finviz)I sold for several reasons as I have already stated. Yet, none were related to the fact I felt Tesla didn’t still have a solid growth story going forward. The primary reason was I saw Musk’s Twitter (TWTR) buy causing a major pullback in the stock. Well, turns out I made the correct call on that. After owning a stock long term you begin to become attuned to what may or may not cause gyrations in the name. Yet, after a 25% drop and subsequent bounce off support which created a double bottom trend reversal signal, I decided to jump back in at 25% of my initial position. This is basically betting with the houses’ money for me at this point. If I hadn’t sold, I would be down 25% on the investment. It’s basically a freeroll on Tesla, that is hard to pass up. Now let’s wrap this up.The Wrap UpI believe Tesla’s first mover advantage will continue to provide a large margin of safety for investors. The massive head start regarding super charging infrastructure will be a key catalyst for the company going forward. Sure, substantial competition is on the way. That's a major reason why I took a portion of my Tesla gains and added to my position in Ford (F), which I have owned for over ten years as well. The fact of the matter is there's plenty of room for some competition with the expansive total addressable EV market.The cherry on top for me is Elon Musk. I truly believe he may be one of the smartest men alive (if not the smartest). How can he not be? Musk made the savvy move of transitioning Tesla and SpaceX headquarters to my home sate of Texas from California which will definitely improve profit margins. I could go more into detail as to why the move to Texas was extremely shrewd, but I don’t want to upset the California Tesla shareholders anymore than they already are.Final NoteThe stock market is under pressure again as I wrap up this piece. There's a fine art to catching falling knives. It entails layering into new positions over time to reduce risk. I have only bought back one quarter of my original position, for example. In extremely volatile times such as these, you will want to have plenty of dry powder if the stock continues lower.My overriding US Army 10th Mountain Winter Warrior investing motto is “patience equals profits.”","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9023444647,"gmtCreate":1652954871789,"gmtModify":1676535195666,"author":{"id":"3582440300426753","authorId":"3582440300426753","name":"RW5","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1892f1a4f1e18bdabb9f243266c5c6b3","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1eed764d9c7ff83dc093fbb9a96bc2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"O","listText":"O","text":"O","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9023444647","repostId":2236797581,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9023444882,"gmtCreate":1652954864946,"gmtModify":1676535195666,"author":{"id":"3582440300426753","authorId":"3582440300426753","name":"RW5","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1892f1a4f1e18bdabb9f243266c5c6b3","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1eed764d9c7ff83dc093fbb9a96bc2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"I","listText":"I","text":"I","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9023444882","repostId":2236797581,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9023440723,"gmtCreate":1652953219462,"gmtModify":1676535195323,"author":{"id":"4100392555064880","authorId":"4100392555064880","name":"renity7","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9ead64a9ca5a429163e2429792ec9676","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"I like the different prospect to see from different age group. Genuine sharing that provide a different way to view. Thumbs up&nbsp;[Like]&nbsp;","listText":"I like the different prospect to see from different age group. Genuine sharing that provide a different way to view. Thumbs up&nbsp;[Like]&nbsp;","text":"I like the different prospect to see from different age group. Genuine sharing that provide a different way to view. Thumbs up [Like]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9023440723","repostId":2236797581,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9023459700,"gmtCreate":1652951426300,"gmtModify":1676535195134,"author":{"id":"3572828820370779","authorId":"3572828820370779","name":"Xianglaw","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/97601e73933911657a3b84b6d943ce66","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Thanks for sharing&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks for sharing&nbsp;","text":"Thanks for sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9023459700","repostId":2236797581,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9023450788,"gmtCreate":1652951285145,"gmtModify":1676535195131,"author":{"id":"4089461104605170","authorId":"4089461104605170","name":"MSTAN","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/1d0ff53a35c30afecbd1fa0c5ed59f07","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"👌👌","listText":"👌👌","text":"👌👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9023450788","repostId":2236797581,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9023487072,"gmtCreate":1652948361896,"gmtModify":1676535194553,"author":{"id":"3558657051587432","authorId":"3558657051587432","name":"OJC","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12cbec786aa0456d41fb74009ec04a37","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3dee1aa3a3a3c1814833a4d3f8a5669","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"🚀🚀🚀","listText":"🚀🚀🚀","text":"🚀🚀🚀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9023487072","repostId":2236797581,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9023484561,"gmtCreate":1652948350353,"gmtModify":1676535194543,"author":{"id":"3558657051587432","authorId":"3558657051587432","name":"OJC","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12cbec786aa0456d41fb74009ec04a37","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3dee1aa3a3a3c1814833a4d3f8a5669","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"🚀🚀🚀","listText":"🚀🚀🚀","text":"🚀🚀🚀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9023484561","repostId":2236797581,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9023482163,"gmtCreate":1652948060452,"gmtModify":1676535194486,"author":{"id":"4110527799654552","authorId":"4110527799654552","name":"Zeniv","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5aa130e67df4736e07b2ed6a3df065af","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"Thanks","listText":"Thanks","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9023482163","repostId":2236797581,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9023417711,"gmtCreate":1652946954333,"gmtModify":1676535194321,"author":{"id":"3582767090031090","authorId":"3582767090031090","name":"Tlc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03de74baa8cb9703a8116c9426282635","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Thx for sharing&nbsp;","listText":"Thx for sharing&nbsp;","text":"Thx for sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9023417711","repostId":2236797581,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9023417275,"gmtCreate":1652946883497,"gmtModify":1676535194318,"author":{"id":"3582942911161794","authorId":"3582942911161794","name":"Nanamoney","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8624e691b889b8bc4515d1884744eb5a","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"Agreed","listText":"Agreed","text":"Agreed","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9023417275","repostId":2236797581,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9023415438,"gmtCreate":1652946484024,"gmtModify":1676535194263,"author":{"id":"3580768650075144","authorId":"3580768650075144","name":"Derrickmin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bb88321eb16bafea5d8794f4409690e","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae1f49570794979e009a5efdeb6f4789","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Nice 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