How To Invest In A Bear Market

seekingalpha2022-05-23

SummaryThe S&P 500 is in a bear market, ~20% off its peak.Many high-quality businesses have their stock down more than 50%.Bear markets feel like a risk as we go through them, but they appear as an ...

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xingyunblu
·2022-05-24
Great article. Learn something new.
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Tuba
·2022-05-24
👍🏻👍🏻
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Sufigus
·2022-05-24
Great article!
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ASMH
·2022-05-24
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MicroStrategist
·2022-05-24
🐻🐻🐻🐻🐻🐻🐻🐻🐻
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Milkgonebad
·2022-05-24
Ok
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tigernaut
·2022-05-24
👍
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andrew123
·2022-05-24
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tigernaut
·2022-05-24
👍
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Ann1228
·2022-05-24
Ok
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linereps
·2022-05-24
Nice
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Mic6226
·2022-05-24
Good
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ML808
·2022-05-24
Cool
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SPOT_ON
·2022-05-24
buy HPHT with massive 8% dividend yield $HUTCHISON PORT HOLDINGS TRUST(NS8U.SI)$
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Seah CL
·2022-05-24
K
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YJ Lee
·2022-05-24
Ok
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YJ Lee
·2022-05-24
Ok
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InvisibleP
·2022-05-24
Ok
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FatKid
·2022-05-24
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逢場作戲又一日
·2022-05-24
Great
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Meanwhile, the S&P 5000 (SPY) is 20% off its peak, a threshold that would characterize a bear market.Data by YChartsIf this sell-off is a typical market correction like we've seen in 2018 or 2020, we may be near the bottom. However, if this is the start of a prolonged bear market, watch below.Ben Carlson shared on his blog (A Wealth Of Common Sense) the history of S&P 500 bear markets since 1950:Over 15 bear markets, the average downturn is a loss of 30%, lasting just under a year to reach the bottom and taking a little more than one-and-a-half years to break even.S&P Bear Markets Since 1950 (A Wealth Of Common Sense)So if we are currently going through an average bear market, we'll reach the bottom toward the end of 2022, and we'll be back at the previous high by July 2023. It could be shorter, or it could be longer. There is no way to know.It's important to note that only three bear markets took significantly longer to recover: 1973, 2000, and 2008. These were outliers (3 out of 15 bear markets). Each time, it took more than four years to get back to even. As a result, I would never invest money in stocks that I don't plan to keep invested for at least five years.A temporary 20% or 30% sell-off doesn't sound bad on paper because the premise assumes it's temporary. But in the middle of a bear market, our brains tend to extrapolate and think it will get worse (which may or may not be true). Morgan Housel explained in a blog post:All past declines look like opportunities and all future declines look like risks. It’s one of the great ironies in investing. But it happens for a reason: When studying history you know how the story ends, and it’s impossible to un-remember what you know today when thinking about the past. So it’s hard to imagine alternative outcomes when looking backward, but when looking ahead you know there are a thousand different paths we could end up on.Today, chances are you care more about whether stocks will fall another 20% or start rebounding soon. However, many years from now, what will matter is probably to have been a net buyer of stocks throughout this entire period.If you are in the wealth accumulation phase of your life, with a regular paycheck and monthly savings to invest, a bear market is something to celebrate. However, it certainly doesn't feel good, particularly when your existing portfolio shrinks by the day. Shelby Cullom Davis said:You make most of your money in a bear market, you just don’t realize it at the time.The greatest challenge in moments like these is to stay the course and not blow up your brokerage account. To do so, being an optimist goes a long way.You'll come across perma-bears who believe the stock market is about to enter the worst period ever seen. They'll say that earnings are about to fall, and we may enter a recession like no other. Peter Lynch explained:“This one is different,” is the doomsayer’s litany, and, in fact, every recession is different, but that doesn’t mean it’s going to ruin us.Ultimately, market downturns are a great time to buy stocks. Valuations have cooled off, and future returns look better today than in many years. So having a buyer's mentality in the face of a market meltdown is essential. Warren Buffett explained:A market downturn doesn’t bother us. It is an opportunity to increase our ownership of great companies with great management at good prices.Easier said than done?Let's review the playbook to go through a bear market unscathed.1) Zoom out.Great long-term investing is 1% buying and 99% waiting.Unfortunately, many investors feel lazy if they don't tinker with their portfolios regularly. Instead, a disciplined investor should look beyond the short-term concerns.The past few decades had their fair share of inflation, rising interest rates, wars, and recessions. Yet, looking at the performance of the MSCI World Index in the past 50 years can help gain some perspective. One dollar invested in 1970 would have grown to $68 by 2018. And the journey to get there was filled with bear markets of all kinds. Yet, staying invested through thick and thin led to an excellent outcome.Growth of $1 in the past 70 years (WealthSmart)Many investors believe they can time in and out of the market based on macro factors. However, the market is forward-looking and tends to rebound long before an individual investor would feel ready to get back in. Peter Lynch explained:[...] every economic recovery since World War II has been preceded by a stock market rally. And these rallies often start when conditions are grim.On average, recessions last 11 months (vs. 67 months for economic expansions). The take-away from the chart below should be obvious. Why would you spend your time preparing for recessions? They are relatively short and unpredictable. And even with perfect information about the economy, you wouldn't be able to predict how the stock market will react.Recessions & Expansions (Visual Capitalist)Despite history telling us that trading in and out of stocks is a weapon of alpha destruction, some investors can't help themselves. Again, market timing is a lovely idea in concept. But nobody can predict market tops and bottoms repeatedly with accuracy.As explained in my article about 5 Ways To Prepare for The Next Stock Market Crash, recognizing how often market crashes happen can give you a better idea of what you are getting into when investing in equities. Here is the historical frequency of pullbacks identified since 1928:Market drawdownHistorical Frequency10%Every 11 months15%Every 24 months20%Every four years30%Every decade40%Every few decades50%2-3 times per centuryAgain, the S&P 500 is already 20% off its peak. And it would be silly to expect all market sell-offs will turn into the Great Depression. We have already had two bear markets of epic proportion in the past two decades, and our instinct is to assume more of the same. History tells us that it's possible but also unlikely. We just don't know.That's why great investing starts with humility. Once we accept that the future is uncertain and that trying to predict it is a fool's errand, we are more likely to adapt our strategy for sustainability and survivability.2) Document your decisions.In his book The Money Game, Adam Smith explained:If you don't know who you are, [the stock market] is an expensive place to find out.Despite our best intentions, we can still fail. That's true of most things in life. Being married or parenting are perfect examples. Many of us can fail when it matters the most to have everything under control. Investing is no different.The biggest challenge in a market contraction is to manage our emotions. I shared with App Economy Portfolio members a version of the \"cycle of emotions\" that comes with the market's ups and downs. It feels like we are likely somewhere between panic and capitulation (though you could suggest I'm in denial).Psychology of Market Cycle (Wall St. Cheat Sheet)I covered before how your temperament is the single greatest factor in your portfolio's returns. There are many ways to fight our natural flaws and avoid the pitfalls we can easily fall for. I believe the most potent tool is journaling.Journaling is the closest thing you'll ever have to a drill in investing. While NBA players can shoot free throws all day long, the only way you can practice is by writing down your strategy, goals, and rationale.Why do you invest?What is your time horizon?What is your investment philosophy?Why are you bullish about this company?Is there something that would break your thesis?What will you do if the market falls and your portfolio along with it?Success comes with homework and preparation. These are not questions you want to answer after the fact. The more you set yourself up with the right mindset ingrained in your brain, the higher your chance of averting a crisis in the heat of the moment.We are already in a downturn, so you don't have this luxury anymore. But it's not too late. If you feel the urge to tinker with your portfolio on a big red day, can you first write down what compels you to do so? Is there truly a call to action, or are you reacting to headlines and market movements?In a down market, investors tend to trade too much. They buy too much too fast in the early phase of a downturn and end up with no dry powder when the market continues to fall. Or they put their entire investment process \"on hold\" because red days take a toll on them.Documenting the reasoning behind your investment decisions and keeping score is a fantastic way to stay honest with yourself. To do so, keeping an investment log or trading journal is the easiest way. I use free apps like Google Keep and Google Sheet that sync between all my devices (desktop and mobile). It can help you identify a pattern, not only with what you're doing wrong, but also with what you're doing right.Another instant benefit of journaling is to learn about yourself. You will see when you were wrong and why and will be more likely to accept blame for it. You are also more likely to see your performance for what it truly is, identifying luck and brilliance wherever they apply.Relying on your feelings is a common investment mistake in a volatile market. And unless you are willing to identify it and address them, your emotions will eventually get in the way. We are influenced by fear and greed, often better described as fear of joining in or missing out (another topic I've covered more in-depth here).As someone managing an investment marketplace, I've seen many members come to me and tell me that they had sold a position because they \"felt\" like there wasn't much upside to a stock. In investing, the less your feelings are involved, the better off you are. As perfectly put by Peter Lynch:The trick is not to learn to trust your gut feelings, but rather to discipline yourself to ignore them. Stand by your stocks as long as the fundamental story of the company hasn’t changed.If your decision to buy or sell cannot wait for a few days, you are likely making an emotional decision. However, a great long-term investment decision should not require perfect timing. Unless you are in the business of day trading, you should always be able to \"sleep on it\" and let a day go by before you pull the trigger on your investment decision.There is no rush to make investment decisions. A thesis should not depend on what could happen within hours or minutes. If bad news comes out and a stock you own is down 50%, you don't have to sell that day, even if your bullish thesis is broken. Instead, you might want to digest the news and make sure you grasp the ins and outs of a new situation. If your intentions are intact after a good night's sleep, your decision is more likely to be sensible and grounded as opposed to a knee-jerk reaction.3) Automate and stick to your plan.Your performance as an investor depends primarily on what you do during periods of high volatility. As a result, using a systematic investment strategy can be a powerful tool.I use 4 Simple Rules to protect my portfolio:I invest a fixed amount monthly (consistency).I don't add to losers (fighting prospect theory).I don't sell winners (staying the course).I invest for no less than five years (time horizon).I get to decide every month which stocks represent the best opportunities based on fundamentals and valuations. Still, the day I invest, and the amount I invest are already pre-determined based on my rules and process.These safeguards make my investment journey incredibly easy to maintain in all market conditions. And it helps me maintain a balanced approach under all circumstances:It limits the maximum amount I can add to an individual stock (diversification over several positions).It forces me to invest every month of the year, even when everyone else is in panic mode.It limits the total amount I can invest in a single month, easing my way in the market (spreading investments over time).It keeps me invested through the vicissitudes of the market.I tried to answer a simple question in a previous article: How many stocks should you own? I tried to explain that the right number is different for everyone.In his book The Psychology of Money, Morgan Housel explained the difference between being rational vs. reasonable. A rational decision means making a decision strictly based on what the facts and the numbers say. It all sounds great in concept. The implication is that you let the data decide for you.However, being rational is not always a realistic approach. We all have emotions at play that can get in the way of a sound plan. Sometimes, what would make the most sense for you will differ from the most rational decision. So, instead, you need to define what is reasonable for you.The proper diversification is the one that keeps you in the game over multiple market cycles. That's why portfolio suitability is so essential.Once you have defined a plan that suits you and have an automated system to keep it in place, you are unstoppable.Not everyone has the luxury of having capital available to invest every month, so I want to touch on cash deployment strategies. Maybe you have cash on the sidelines, and you wonder when or how to put it to use. Unfortunately, many investors go all-in at first sight of a market pullback of a few percentage points, only to feel buyer's remorse when the market continues to fall.I love this blog post from Morgan Housel covering his cash deployment strategy in the context of a market drawdown. He shows how much of a theoretical $1,000 in cash set aside for investing he would deploy based on how much the market has sold off.Morgan Housel Cash Deployment Strategy (The Motley Fool)The S&P 500 is down 20%, so Morgan would invest ~60% of his cash reserve (keeping the remaining 40% in case of a more significant sell-off).It doesn't matter what exact number you use. What matters is to define a plan and stick to it. In investing, consistency wins the game.4) Be selective and focus on qualityA bear market is a perfect opportunity to invest in a stock you've wanted to own for a long time but couldn't because of valuation concerns or because it was running away from you. I believe that's where your focus should be.Again, I wouldn't bet the farm and invest all at once (as explained above), but it doesn't get better than slowly accumulating shares of great businesses while they are on sale.Of course, we have to hold our noses. Stocks could have more to fall in a highly volatile and unpredictable environment. As a result, it wouldn't be shocking to see a stock fall another 30% right after you buy it. That's the cost of doing business. If you don't have the stomach for it, you are better off focusing exclusively on index funds or letting someone else manage it for you.Since the market tends to sell indiscriminately during a bear market, it gives us a fantastic opportunity to invest in high-quality businesses.What is a high-quality business, you ask?I modernized Philip Fisher's Scuttlebutt common-stock checklist:Large addressable market.Future growth initiatives.Effective research and development.Effective sales & marketing.Worthwhile profit margins.Improving profit margins.Strong culture.High insider ownership.Management team depth.Consistent reporting.Sustainable competitive advantages.Long-term vision.Financial fortitude.Transparent management.Ethical management.I would emphasize financial fortitude and cash flow in the current macro environment, given the potential for a liquidity crisis.The largest companies driving the US indices higher in the past decade have been incredible cash-flow machines. Apple (AAPL) crossed $100B in free cash flow in the past 12 months. Alphabet (GOOG) and Microsoft (MSFT) are not far behind.Data by YChartsOur north star is finding the businesses that can follow a similar path in the decades ahead. And only companies that can survive and thrive in a crisis will be able to get there.It's essential to understand what you invest in to stay invested when the inevitable setback occurs. Borrowing from Peter Lynch, I realized I had a clear advantage through my experience at PwC and my decade-long tenure as a financial executive in the gaming industry. That's why my focus has been on the App Economy in the past decade.I recently shared on Seeking Alpha why I like companies like Airbnb (ABNB), Block (SQ), and Datadog (DDOG), particularly after their massive sell-offs in the past few months. Of course, these are only examples, but they check most of the boxes listed above.I believe this bear market is an excellent opportunity to reflect on what you've had on your watch list for a very long time. However, I would be mindful of not falling for the \"flavor of the month.\" For example, I see many articles about investing in energy stocks these days, which are cyclical and represent a tiny portion of the economy. There is also a risk of investing in specific stocks because they are expected to do well \"now\" or in the next few weeks. If you invest in companies solely based on how they might perform in the here and now, you are likely shortening your time horizon, leading to overtrading and unnecessary tax inefficiencies.Building up positions in your winners is also a sound investment philosophy during a downturn. I covered the art of adding to your winners when I explained why I was adding to my position in MongoDB (MDB) in 2019.The great businesses that sit at the top of your portfolio are the same as before any market meltdown, and they will still be the same after the storm passes. In the short term, stock performance can be detached from the underlying business, both in up and down markets.In my article about 7 Rules For An Antifragile Portfolio, I discuss the importance of seeking low-downside, high-upside payoffs. Borrowing from Peter Thiel in his book Zero to One, I discussed the idea of only investing in companies that have the potential to beat all of your other investments combined. While this idea may sound romantic at first, it can be very effective. By setting the expectation that your next pick needs to have the potential to beat the performance of all your other investments combined, you are setting the bar extremely high and challenging your own goal. Most stocks won't pass this filter. And that's a good thing.5) Be patient. This too shall pass.It's not fun to watch a portfolio collapse in real-time. Whenever a new sell-off occurs, we are all back in the grind, trying to get our accounts to all-time highs. While setbacks always feel painful, rising to the challenge is critical.What prevents many investors from keeping a steady hand in a time of hardship is the daunting thought of waiting for years before the portfolio has a shot at hitting a new high again. But that's what investing is all about. As American economist Paul Samuelson wrote:Investing should be more like watching paint dry or grass grow. If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Las Vegas.As Charlie Munger explained:It's waiting that helps you as an investor, and a lot of people just can't stand to wait. If you didn't get the deferred-gratification gene, you've got to work very hard to overcome that.So before you re-balance your portfolio or throw in the towel on what may become a significant missed opportunity, you want to ask yourself if you've genuinely given enough time for your investments to flourish. Unless my bullish thesis is broken, I don't sell until I've held a position for at least five years since my last purchase. It's an effective safeguard to ignore the noise of missed guidances, lower target prices from analysts, or negative headlines of the day.Because emotions run high after a series of red days, the best course of action is often to sit on your hands. That's right, doing nothing at all.Only with the discipline of staying invested through thick and thin will you benefit from the power of compounding over the years. Even the best-performing portfolios don't go up in a straight line. Investing is all about grinding through good and bad times with a mindset that remains onward and upward.You'll often hear about how it took almost 16 years for Microsoft (MSFT) to regain its 1999 high. This stretch was the worst in the US stock market history (two of the longest bear markets ever, almost back to back). So I don't find it particularly insightful. It's the ultimate cherry-picking, if you will.There are periods of 10 years with negative stock returns in the stock market. However, your portfolio wouldn't suffer from such misfortune unless you invested all of your life's savings at the market top in 2000.Recognizing that there is no urgency to act is essential. As I pointed out in many articles, if your next trade cannot wait for a few days, you are likely making an emotional decision. An investment should not depend on perfect timing or finding the exact bottom.Final WordA bear market is a unique opportunity to invest for the long term. The key is to give yourself the best chance to stay calm and make the best decisions:Zoom out. Market sell-offs are part of the investing process.Document your decisions. Are you reacting to the news cycle? Journaling and keeping score can help you work through your emotions.Automate and stick to your plan. A rule-based approach can help. Consistency wins, particularly in challenging times.Be selective. Focus on high-quality companies that can sustain the test of time and rarely offer a decent entry point.Be patient. This too shall pass. Sell-offs are part of the grind, and we'll all come out stronger on the other side.What about you?How are you holding up in the recent sell-off?Have you been watching your cash deployment with caution?Are you focusing on the best-of-breed businesses or chasing bargains?Let me know in the comments!","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9026601748,"gmtCreate":1653359933785,"gmtModify":1676535267973,"author":{"id":"4092966579726440","authorId":"4092966579726440","name":"xingyunblu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4092966579726440","authorIdStr":"4092966579726440"},"htmlText":"Great article. Learn something new.","listText":"Great article. Learn something new.","text":"Great article. Learn something 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