NIO: The Ultimate Bottom Has Occurred

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NIO: The Ultimate Bottom Has Occurred

seekingalpha2022-06-05

SummaryNIO is scheduled to report its FQ1'22 earnings release on June 9. Investors are waiting for management's guidance on its outlook, given the massive disruption due to China's COVID lockdowns.NIO...

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Uasbau
·2022-06-06
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Steve81
·2022-06-06
Jiayou
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Juanlee
·2022-06-06
How does anyone know any price to be the lowest possible ?
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Kelistine
·2022-06-06
👍
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nanehz07
·2022-06-06
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tigernaut
·2022-06-06
👍
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mohjoejoejoe
·2022-06-06
Ok
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Sysy
·2022-06-06
K
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andrew123
·2022-06-06
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leemoney
·2022-06-06
Nice
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CT888
·2022-06-06
Q1 result should be gloomy. ET7 sales is not included yet and NIO is expanding aggressively in Europe. The outlook is good though. Unfortunately, the Quan will look for eps and then shot. Look out for 20-30% dip before enter.
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Chitz
·2022-06-06
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kenong62
·2022-06-06
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AK1228
·2022-06-06
Plz like
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YJ Lee
·2022-06-06
Noted
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xiaobaii
·2022-06-06
like & comment please
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Stv59
·2022-06-06
[Thinking]
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丰人
·2022-06-06
Ok
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Edwardtoh
·2022-06-06
Great
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Memem123
·2022-06-06
B
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Investors are waiting for management's guidance on its outlook, given the massive disruption due to China's COVID lockdowns.NIO...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4516306-nio-the-ultimate-bottom-has-occurred\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"seekingalpha","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO: The Ultimate Bottom Has Occurred</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO: The Ultimate Bottom Has Occurred\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-05 08:40 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4516306-nio-the-ultimate-bottom-has-occurred><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryNIO is scheduled to report its FQ1'22 earnings release on June 9. Investors are waiting for management's guidance on its outlook, given the massive disruption due to China's COVID lockdowns.NIO...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4516306-nio-the-ultimate-bottom-has-occurred\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"NIO.SI","symbol_name":"蔚来","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4516306-nio-the-ultimate-bottom-has-occurred","article_id":"2240727323","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2240727323","pubTimestamp":1654389620,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"seekingalpha","name":"Seeking Alpha"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"SummaryNIO is scheduled to report its FQ1'22 earnings release on June 9. Investors are waiting for m","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"NIO.SI":"蔚来","09866":"蔚来-SW","NIO":"蔚来"},"translate_title":"蔚来：终极底部已经发生","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":1,"09866":0.6,"NIO.SI":0.6},"content_text":"SummaryNIO is scheduled to report its FQ1'22 earnings release on June 9. Investors are waiting for management's guidance on its outlook, given the massive disruption due to China's COVID lockdowns.NIO's May 2022 delivery update also shows a marked improvement from April's numbers. It also highlighted robust order book visibility in May.Our price action analysis suggests a double bottom bear trap formed in NIO stock in the May sell-off. Therefore, we are confident that its bottom has occurred.We reiterate our Speculative Buy rating on NIO stock, with a near-term price target of $22 (an implied upside of 23%).Drew Angerer/Getty Images NewsInvestment ThesisNIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) is slated to report its FQ1'22 earnings release on June 9, as investors anticipate the company's Q2 guidance given its recent May 2022 delivery update. We discussed in ourprevious article (Buy rating) that the market has already been looking forward to its H2'22 recovery, despite facing significant challenges in April due to the onset of the COVID lockdowns.NIO's May delivery numbers didn't impress. However, the company also emphasized that it will be ramping production from June, given the recent lifting of COVID lockdowns in China.Furthermore, our price action analysis suggests a double bottom bear trap occurred in the May sell-off. Consequently, we are confident NIO stock could have staged a sustained reversal of its downward bias, leading to the potential recovery of its upward momentum.Therefore, we reiterate our Speculative Buy rating on NIO stock. We urge investors to look forward and not backward as NIO continues to scale.May Deliveries Indicate A Sign Of BottomingNIO deliveries by month (Company filings)NIO delivered 7.02K of vehicles in May, up 4.6% YoY. Notably, it represented a 38.5% MoM increase from April. NIO also highlighted its optimism about improving its delivery cadence in June and accentuated significant order inflows in Shanghai in May. Therefore, we think investors can look forward to a strong outlook in June and urge investors to parse management's commentary in its upcoming Q1 call.The Chinese EV market remains a critical industry for the Chinese economy. Therefore, it was reported in the local media that the Chinese government has been deliberating plans to extend NEV subsidies that are set to expire by the end of 2022. The carnage brought upon by the COVID lockdowns has been massive on the Chinese economy and consumer confidence. Therefore, we believe China is not keen for its critical NEV adoption momentum to slow down while the NEV makers ramp up to compensate for their production gaps in April and May.The company has also been approved to sell its ES7, which should continue the strong momentum seen in its ET7. In addition, NIO's ET7 deliveries have already eclipsed its EC6, despite having started deliveries only in March. Therefore, we believe the new launches in H2'22 could lift NIO's order book visibility through FY23 as it refreshes its line-up.Estimates Suggest A H2'22 Revival Is On TrackNIO revenue change % consensus estimates (S&P Cap IQ)NIO adjusted EBIT change % consensus estimates (S&P Cap IQ)The consensus estimates also suggest that NIO's revenue growth could reach its nadir in FQ1 before recovering remarkably through H2'22. Furthermore, NIO is also charting its way towards adjusted EBIT profitability as it continues to scale.As long as China's COVID crisis does not worsen further, we believe the re-rating in NIO stock could be on the horizon. Notwithstanding, the company must continue executing well to demonstrate its ability to grow rapidly and improve its underlying economics.NIO revenue change % and adjusted EBIT margins % consensus estimates (By FY) (S&P Cap IQ)On an FY basis, the company is expected to post revenue growth of 73.9% in FY22, down from FY21's 122.3%. However, investors should expect slower growth through FY23.Notwithstanding, NIO should achieve adjusted EBIT breakeven in FY24 as it scales further. Given its underlying profitability, we have always regarded NIO as a speculative play, and we urge investors to consider our perspective.Price Action Suggests A Double Bottom Bear Trap In MayNIO price chart (TradingView)Our price action analysis indicates that a double bottom bear trap formed in NIO stock in May's sell-off. As a result, it has validated a potent downtrend reversal signal.As a result, we are not surprised that NIO stock has rallied from its potent double bottom bear trap. Furthermore, it remains reasonably below its near-term resistance zone.Therefore, we believe that our base case of a $22 near-term price target (PT) is achievable. Our bear case suggests a re-test of the near-term support of $13. But, we expect the bear trap to hold.Is NIO Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?Admittedly our calls in NIO stock have been disappointing. We had previously omitted detailed price action analysis in NIO stock. However, we have reinstated the critical charting discipline from our previous article in our analysis.Therefore, we are confident that NIO stock has formed its bottom, and investors can consider layering in. However, more conservative investors can await a potential re-test of its near-term support before adding exposure.Our near-term PT of $22 implies a potential upside of 23%. However, we expect the stock to rally towards its intermediate resistance over the medium term.Investors who need a higher margin of safety can consider watching for a re-test first (note there's no guarantee a re-test could occur). But, we think the risk/reward profile has improved significantly, given its constructive price action.Therefore, we reiterate our Speculative Buy rating on NIO stock.This article was written by JR Research","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9053367530,"gmtCreate":1654484547221,"gmtModify":1676535455698,"author":{"id":"3581724772671504","authorId":"3581724772671504","name":"Uasbau","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67cdf409f2239595269918513a5faac9","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9053367530","repostId":2240727323,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9053381729,"gmtCreate":1654482563461,"gmtModify":1676535455282,"author":{"id":"3583228594556766","authorId":"3583228594556766","name":"Steve81","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8451fbd9311bbb12faabfa8f6138ef34","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Jiayou","listText":"Jiayou","text":"Jiayou","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9053381729","repostId":2240727323,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9053312776,"gmtCreate":1654481688695,"gmtModify":1676535455121,"author":{"id":"3553595575003751","authorId":"3553595575003751","name":"Juanlee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbf36c4a5cfcee186a3187df34efc7f9","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"How does anyone know any price to be the lowest possible ?","listText":"How does anyone know any price to be the lowest possible ?","text":"How does anyone know any price to be the lowest possible ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9053312776","repostId":2240727323,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9053984642,"gmtCreate":1654475404087,"gmtModify":1676535452842,"author":{"id":"4092048605458070","authorId":"4092048605458070","name":"Kelistine","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/403983898bdf57dc02c9ba07eef81cd1","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3dee1aa3a3a3c1814833a4d3f8a5669","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9053984642","repostId":2240727323,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9053983899,"gmtCreate":1654475113711,"gmtModify":1676535452695,"author":{"id":"4090062734790350","authorId":"4090062734790350","name":"nanehz07","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/038022539ff9e1b6fe247128b5ed9782","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b073a07f77dbe6b3bec6b12311fde6bd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9053983899","repostId":2240727323,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9053989837,"gmtCreate":1654475049829,"gmtModify":1676535452669,"author":{"id":"3567239827558758","authorId":"3567239827558758","name":"tigernaut","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66e331c670eb88443b88c6bdb76224cf","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a2963eb37c60c5d6d4a8dbcd266952","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9053989837","repostId":2240727323,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9053931903,"gmtCreate":1654474128802,"gmtModify":1676535452078,"author":{"id":"3570664633810000","authorId":"3570664633810000","name":"mohjoejoejoe","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9053931903","repostId":2240727323,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9053909391,"gmtCreate":1654472918513,"gmtModify":1676535451373,"author":{"id":"3581726174893746","authorId":"3581726174893746","name":"Sysy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f89400ba2f20ed80423858c0f6a3d8ee","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9053909391","repostId":2240727323,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9053023395,"gmtCreate":1654470140817,"gmtModify":1676535450392,"author":{"id":"3576260758860416","authorId":"3576260758860416","name":"andrew123","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f3e049e64de259e717c6e652c0aca653","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f84d87792f02cf78e80ee34979fd31e5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9053023395","repostId":2240727323,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9053029662,"gmtCreate":1654470064456,"gmtModify":1676535450376,"author":{"id":"3573369274290933","authorId":"3573369274290933","name":"leemoney","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6a1151f25a904ba29b93dd84a40bb5a","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9053029662","repostId":2240727323,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9053062432,"gmtCreate":1654469433926,"gmtModify":1676535450252,"author":{"id":"3575511427814197","authorId":"3575511427814197","name":"CT888","avatar":"https://comm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result should be gloomy. ET7 sales is not included yet&nbsp;and NIO is expanding aggressively in Europe. The outlook is good though. Unfortunately, the Quan will look for eps and then shot. Look out for 20-30% dip before enter.","listText":"Q1 result should be gloomy. ET7 sales is not included yet&nbsp;and NIO is expanding aggressively in Europe. The outlook is good though. Unfortunately, the Quan will look for eps and then shot. Look out for 20-30% dip before enter.","text":"Q1 result should be gloomy. ET7 sales is not included yet and NIO is expanding aggressively in Europe. The outlook is good though. Unfortunately, the Quan will look for eps and then shot. 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