外媒头条 | 德银预计美国明年或全面衰退-To The Moon - Tiger Brokers Online Investing Community

外媒头条 | 德银预计美国明年或全面衰退

环球市场播报2022-07-07

全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有： 1、德意志银行预测美国Q2陷入技术性衰退明年或出现全面衰退2、美联储会议纪要：若通胀未能降温 “更具限制性”的政策可能是合适的 3、美国和盟友探讨将俄罗斯原油售价限制在40-60美元 4、市场预测专家Gartman：建议下半年逢高抛售股票　5、欧洲议会投票支持给天然气和核能贴上“绿色标签”6、英国央行官员暗示或将以更快步伐加息以免通胀更加顽固...

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Comment（7）

hhyw
·2022-07-07
好
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Paggie
·2022-07-07
閱
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Hui Yean
·2022-07-07
OK
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康康的
·2022-07-07
OK
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1
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DaisyDeng
·2022-07-07
[流淚]
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金莺
·2022-07-07
逢高拋售[微笑]
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1
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老火
·2022-07-07
小張，讓亂花工資，所以一個月給你一千工資
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“更具限制性”的政策可能是合适的 3、美国和盟友探讨将俄罗斯原油售价限制在40-60美元 4、市场预测专家Gartman：建议下半年逢高抛售股票　5、欧洲议会投票支持给天然气和核能贴上“绿色标签”6、英国央行官员暗示或将以更快步伐加息以免通胀更加顽固德意志银行预测美国Q2陷入技术性衰退 明年或出现全面衰退德意志银行表示，美国经济部分领域的弱点蔓延到仍然强劲的劳动力市场和服务业的可能性正在上升，这将造成人员失业，令美联储对抗通胀更加艰难。德意志银行的经济学家现在预计，第二季度美国GDP折合年率萎缩0.6%，这将意味着连续第二个季度经济萎缩，从而使美国经济陷入技术性衰退。他们仍然预计全年经济将实现增长，增幅0.6%，到2023年中期经济将陷入全面衰退。该行表示，用于计算季度GDP的指标--面向国内购买者的最终销售--在今年二、三季度增幅将略微超过1%。“尽管这并不意味着经济衰退近在眼前，但历史上，最终销售增速下降如此之大、而经济又不陷入衰退的情况并不多，”该行经济学家在一份研究报告中写道。华尔街分析师近几周来纷纷下调2022年GDP增幅预测，并对经济下滑风险发出警告。美联储会议纪要：若通胀未能降温 “更具限制性”的政策可能是合适的美联储周三公布了6月份联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）货币政策会议的纪要文件。美联储官员们在会议上强调了对抗通胀的必要性，即便这意味着会让已经处于衰退边缘的经济放缓。会议纪要显示，美联储多数官员认为经济增长风险偏向下行。如果通胀未能降温，美联储可能会采取“更具限制性”的政策。纪要称，“与会者们一致认为，经济前景需要转向限制性政策立场。他们认识到，如果通胀压力持续升高，采取更加严格的政策立场可能是合适的。”纪要显示，官员们“高度关注”通胀风险，可能需要一段时间才能将通胀率降至2%。许多官员担忧长期价格预期可能会上升。官员们还承认，政策收紧可能会付出代价。美国和盟友探讨将俄罗斯原油售价限制在40-60美元据知情人士透露，美国及其盟国已经讨论过努力将俄罗斯原油的售价限制在每桶40美元至60美元左右。相关讨论在七国集团峰会前就开始，盟国在探索限制俄罗斯石油收入、同时最大限度减少对自身经济冲击的数种途径。在6月28日于德国举行的峰会上，各国领导人同意研究限制油价的各选项，如禁止运输俄罗斯原油和石油产品所需的保险及运输服务，除非售价低于其规定的水平。知情人士称，该区间是盟国所认为的俄罗斯边际生产成本到俄乌冲突发生之前的油价。两位知情人士表示，拜登政府认为40美元的上限过低。盟国的目的是削减莫斯科可用于军事行动的收入，但风险在于，若措施执行不力油价会飙升。市场预测专家Gartman：建议下半年逢高抛售股票市场预测专家Dennis Gartman警告称，在当前的熊市购买股票“是愚蠢的事”。“股市上涨是用来逢高抛售的，不是用来买进的，”这位阿克伦大学捐赠基金的主席周二表示。“再过三、四、五或六个月，这样的情况可能会改变。熊市的平均期限往往接近一年。股市还能下跌多少就只能猜了。”Gartman曾发布颇具影响力的“The Gartman Letter”，他看空股市已有数月。1月份，他说股市在2022年可能面临多达15%的跌幅，他在12月31日将大学基金中股票的比重下调了12%-15%。标普500指数今年以来下跌了20%，满足传统上的熊市定义。Gartman表示，美联储今年加息三次以后，计划将隔夜贷款利率“进一步上调75-125个基点”，会令美国经济陷入衰退，即便推动其收紧政策的严重通胀开始放缓。欧洲议会投票支持给天然气和核能贴上“绿色标签”欧洲议会6日发表声明说，经过投票，欧洲议会支持欧盟委员会提出的相关法案，把满足特定条件的天然气和核能项目列入欧盟一项应对气候变化的分类条例所涵盖的可持续经济活动类别。如果欧盟理事会在7月11日前不提出异议，该法案将于2023年1月1日正式生效。欧盟这项分类条例为可持续经济活动设立标准，供各成员国在投资、税收、管理等方面参考。欧盟委员会今年2月通过了该条例的补充授权法案，将满足特定条件的天然气和核能项目归为可持续经济活动，并规定了相应项目的技术筛选和排放标准。法案规定，核能项目需要满足核安全和环境安全要求，天然气则要有助于加速从煤炭向可再生能源的过渡，同时不会影响对可再生能源的投资。该法案广受争议。环保组织和一些欧盟成员国批评其“漂绿”化石能源和核能投资，损害欧盟在应对气候变化方面的信誉。支持者则认为，拒绝给天然气和核能贴上“绿色标签”，将导致能源价格进一步上涨，并使人们更难摆脱对煤炭等化石能源的依赖。英国央行官员暗示或将以更快步伐加息以免通胀更加顽固两位英国央行高级别官员表示，为了防止通胀更加顽固，他们准备在必要时以更快的速度加息；进一步显示，英国央行最快下个月就可能加息50个基点。首席经济学家Huw Pill表示，央行的最新指引显示，如有必要，愿意加快加息周期。数小时前，英国央行副行长Jon Cunliffe表示，央行“将采取一切必要措施”，以防止通胀持续，并承诺官员们“将采取行动，我们将会采取有力行动”。Pill在伦敦发表讲话时表示，英国央行6月承诺对通胀的持续采取“有力行动”，“既反映了我愿意比当前紧缩周期迄今为止的执行速度更快紧缩，同时也强调了行动步伐发生任何变化，都要取决于新的数据和分析。”“我们在8月份就政策决定表决前，还有很多问题要解决。届时我如何投票将由我们看到的数据和我的解读来定，”他说道。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9079181884,"gmtCreate":1657158022948,"gmtModify":1676535961060,"author":{"id":"3561544476596136","authorId":"3561544476596136","name":"hhyw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62f8a12108672917c80685184f331b6f","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3561544476596136","authorIdStr":"3561544476596136"},"htmlText":"好","listText":"好","text":"好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9079181884","repostId":2249822546,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9079106004,"gmtCreate":1657155177208,"gmtModify":1676535960154,"author":{"id":"4111640372193142","authorId":"4111640372193142","name":"Paggie","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/34e78ada667e7b63c0632c8f2d0fc95f","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4111640372193142","authorIdStr":"4111640372193142"},"htmlText":"閱","listText":"閱","text":"閱","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9079106004","repostId":2249822546,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9079377928,"gmtCreate":1657154819264,"gmtModify":1676535959965,"author":{"id":"4118888674291832","authorId":"4118888674291832","name":"Hui 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