外媒头条 | 华尔街警告美股近期反弹难以为继-To The Moon - Tiger Brokers Online Investing Community

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外媒头条 | 华尔街警告美股近期反弹难以为继

环球市场播报2022-08-05

全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：1、美国GDP第三季度可能还会萎缩听听五位经济学家的观点2、高盛与Bernstein策略师警告：美股最近的大反弹难以为继 3、克利夫兰联储行长重申美联储决心通过加息来遏制通胀4、美国30年期抵押贷款利率跌破5% 至4月初以来最低水平5、英国央行实施1995年以来最大幅度加息并发出长期经济衰退警告6、瑞信考虑全球裁员数千人把成本开支再压缩10亿美元...

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BenWong78
·2022-08-05
😀
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Lun_Ng
·2022-08-05
That why...
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建稳的朋友
·2022-08-05
💪💪💪💪💪
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Imkpy
·2022-08-05
Good sharing
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href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-08-05/doc-imizirav6815478.shtml?finpagefr=p_115><strong>环球市场播报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：1、美国GDP第三季度可能还会萎缩 听听五位经济学家的观点2、高盛与Bernstein策略师警告：美股最近的大反弹难以为继 3、克利夫兰联储行长重申美联储决心通过加息来遏制通胀4、美国30年期抵押贷款利率跌破5% 至4月初以来最低水平5、英国央行实施1995年以来最大幅度加息 并发出长期经济衰退警告6、瑞信考虑全球裁员数千人 把成本开支再压缩10亿美元...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-08-05/doc-imizirav6815478.shtml?finpagefr=p_115\">Source 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Dunham表示。他预计，随着各种因素削弱美国经济发展势头，幅度“较浅”的衰退将持续到至少明年。“在可预见的未来，通货膨胀可能会继续保持高位甚至糟糕的多，这要看国际关系，美国财政，货币政策，还有似乎恶化许多的监管政策”。一位学术界经济学家强调，第二季度GDP负增长是一个初步数据，很可能会被修正。但是，加州大学洛杉矶分校安德森经济中心的Leo Feler表示，“我认为加息和消费需求下降的结合可能会导致经济在今年晚些时候及2023年初进一步大范围萎缩”。Feler说，消费者正在消耗过去两年的积蓄。“看起来我们还没有陷入经济衰退，仍处于紧缩周期的早期阶段。”高盛与Bernstein策略师警告：美股最近的大反弹难以为继高盛集团和Sanford C． Bernstein的策略师警告称，随着宏观经济数据继续恶化以及盈利预测大幅下调，股市近期快速反弹的势头不会持续。“如果没有明显的信号显示宏观动能转向积极一面，短暂的风险偏好回升可能其实会加大股市再度下跌的风险，而非表明熊市要到头了，” 高盛策略师Cecilia Mariotti等人在8月4日的报告中写道。高盛策略师表示，随着投资者近几周再度涌向股市，市场配置与6月非常悲观的水平相比已有所改善，而且资产配置的转变短期内可能会助推涨势。但策略师们说，归根结底，他们“不相信我们现在已经度过了‘真正’的配置低谷，而且我们认为从现在开始，前路可能会更加依赖宏观经济数据。”Bernstein策略师Sarah McCarthy和Mark Diver周四则在报告中表示，随着股票基金资金外流，盈利预测下调的周期才刚开始。克利夫兰联储行长重申美联储决心通过加息来遏制通胀克利夫兰联邦储备银行行长Loretta Mester表示，美联储致力于为通胀降温，需要进一步加息以减弱需求。“我们致力于将通胀率降至”2%的目标，这将需要进一步加息，Mester周四在匹兹堡经济俱乐部主办的活动上表示。这番发言与她本周早些时候的讲话相一致。Mester称美国经济“没有陷入衰退”，并解释说第二季度国内生产总值萎缩表明“消费增长放缓，而非负增长”。为了给创下40年高点的通胀降温，美联储上个月连续第二次将利率提高了75个基点，这也是超过一代人以来美联储最激进的加息行动。在本周发表讲话的美联储决策者都承诺会继续加息，并抵制了美联储可能即将向不那么激进紧缩政策的阶段转变的预期。美国30年期抵押贷款利率跌破5% 至4月初以来最低水平美国抵押贷款利率近四个月来首次跌破5%，让借款人暂时得以松一口气。房地美周四公布的数据显示，30年期抵押贷款平均利率从上周的5.3%降至4.99%，创4月初以来最低水平，也是7月初以来最大单周下降。“由于同时受到高通胀、经济增长放缓这两股力量的影响，抵押贷款利率波动较大，” 房地美首席经济学家Sam Khater表示。英国央行实施1995年以来最大幅度加息 并发出长期经济衰退警告英国央行实施27年来最大幅度加息，并警告称，在通胀飙升的压力下，英国可能迎来超过一年的经济衰退。加息0.5个百分点至1.75%的决定得到了货币政策委员会9名成员中的8人支持。央行还承诺未来必要情况下再次采取强有力的行动，在接下来的几次会议上可能进行类似的加息。官员们预计英国经济将在第四季度开始衰退，并一直持续到明年底。这将是金融危机以来持续时间最长的一次衰退。官员们预计经济总量将总共萎缩约2.1%。随着天然气价格飙升，英国央行还预计通胀率将在10月份达到13.3%的峰值，并警告说2023年全年价格涨幅都将保持较高水平。这将加剧一场生活成本危机，实际可支配收入将出现60年来最严重的恶化。瑞信考虑全球裁员数千人 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