外媒头条 | 美联储料将围绕加息100基点展开激烈讨论-To The Moon - Tiger Brokers Online Investing Community

外媒头条 | 美联储料将围绕加息100基点展开激烈讨论

环球市场播报2022-09-16

全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有： 1、美联储下周会议料将围绕是否加息100基点展开激烈讨论 2、美国8月零售额在大跌后小幅回调，但市场商品需求仍十分疲弱 3、受美联储加息押注影响金价跌至逾两年新低 4、专家预测美国房地产市场将出现2008年以来最大转向 5、通胀笼罩下，美国人正愈发依赖贷款购买食物、燃料等必需品 6、前IMF首席经济学家：美国正处于生产力衰退期，通胀程度是可怕的...

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Fred_6810
·2022-09-16
這大雜燴，沒有任何專業性
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zoliver
·2022-09-16
閱
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hhyw
·2022-09-16
好
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KK风筝
·2022-09-16
see
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MyKhoo
·2022-09-16
K
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- 淡然笑:
  [微笑]
  2022-09-16
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haiwei183
·2022-09-16
look
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6、前IMF首席经济学家：美国正处于生产力衰退期，通胀程度是可怕的美联储下周会议料将围绕是否加息100基点展开激烈讨论如果想表明抗通胀的决心足够坚定，美联储官员说不定可以找到下周加息100基点的理由，不过目前的基线预测仍然是加息75基点。虽然大多数经济学家认为加息75基点是9月20-21日会议最可能的结果，但在8月高于预期的核心通胀率公布后，升息1个百分点也并非全无可能。利率期货的定价显示投资者认为加息100基点的概率约为24%，而一些美联储观察人士认为可能性更高一些。毕马威会计师事务所首席经济学家Diane Swonk表示，“加息100基点一定在备选方案中，虽然他们最后可能还是会只加息75基点，但其中必然是经过一番纠结的”。在一些人看来，通胀的顽固及包括劳动力市场在内其他经济领域的强劲表现为美联储实施更激进加息提供了支持。野村证券预测下周将加息100个基点，其认为8月的通胀报告将促使官员们加快行动。美国8月零售额在大跌后小幅回调，但市场商品需求仍十分疲弱美国商务部周四表示，8月份全美零售额增长了0.3%。零售额是衡量消费者在包括汽车、食品和汽油在内的一系列日常商品上花费的指标。经济学家曾预计销售额会保持不变。8月份的上涨没有考虑通货膨胀——上个月通货膨胀率上升了0.1%——这意味着消费者可能会花同样的钱，但获得的商品更少。“面对美联储大幅通胀和加息，消费者支出实际持平，”Nationwide高级经济学家本·艾尔斯（Ben Ayers）表示。“虽然零售额小幅走高，但这很大程度上是由于价格上涨推高了美元销售额。这是今年整个经济活动总体放缓的另一个迹象。”扣除汽车支出后，8月份的销售额实际上也下降了0.3%。不包括汽车和汽油，销售额增长0.3%。汽车和零部件经销商的销售领涨所有类别，上月跃升2.8%，帮助抵消了汽油销售下降4.2%的影响。受美联储加息押注影响 金价跌至逾两年新低尽管新一轮美国经济数据表现喜忧参半，但由于市场预计美联储将更大幅加息，金价跌至了2020年4月以来的最低水平。“市场预计下周美联储将加息1个百分点，终端利率在4.5%左右，进而带来了损害，”盛宝银行大宗商品策略主管Ole Hansen表示。由于可能影响到美联储即将做出的利率决定，“零售销售强于预期也没有带来帮助”。随着美联储大举加息，削弱了无息资产的吸引力，金价今年已下跌了近8.8%。美元的上涨也令金价承压，但欧洲央行官员立场越来越鹰派，正在遏制美元的涨幅。纽约时间10：56，现货金下跌1.8%，报1，666.45美元/盎司，势将连续第三天走低。早些时候，金价一度触及1，666.35美元，为2020年4月以来的最低水平。美元即期指数上涨0.2%。白银下跌，钯金震荡，铂金走强。专家预测美国房地产市场将出现2008年以来最大转向在经历了两年创纪录的房产销售量之后，数据显示美国房地产市场开始转向降温。自2021年3月以来，美国房屋平均售价首次低于其标价，高抵押贷款利率影响着人们的负担能力。抵押贷款利率达到了14年来的最高水平，接近6%。“这是自2008年房地产市场崩溃以来房地产市场最急剧的转折。”经济学家达里尔·费尔韦瑟（Daryl Fairweather）说。尽管房价仍高于一年前，目前平均房价略低于37万美元，但通胀和高利率正在放缓市场。Fairweather表示：“自2008年、2007年以来，我们从未见过如此高的利率，因此这与我们已经习惯的房地产市场相比是一个巨大的变化。”。通胀笼罩下，美国人正愈发依赖贷款购买食物、燃料等必需品持续数月的通货膨胀正在给美国人的钱包带来损失。数据显示，越来越多的消费者求助于信用卡，甚至“先买后付”（BNPL，Buy Now Pay Later）贷款来支付食品杂货和汽油等必需品的费用。据美国劳工部最新的消费者价格指数显示，8月份包括燃料、食品和租金在内的日常用品价格同比上涨8.3%，这表明尽管有放缓的希望，通胀仍然居高不下。但食品和汽油成本甚至更高，分别同比上涨11.4%和25.6%。随着工资增长无法跟上生活必需品价格的飙升，消费者越来越依赖信贷来支付不断上涨的成本。纽约联邦储备银行（Federal Reserve Bank of New York）报告称，美国家庭持有的信用卡债务在第二季度按年计算激增了13%，这是20多年来最大幅度的攀升。富国银行最近的一项研究发现，美国人也依赖信用卡来抵消日常开支。前IMF首席经济学家：美国正处于生产力衰退期，通胀程度是可怕的前国际货币基金组织（IMF）首席经济学家肯尼斯·罗格夫（Kenneth·Rogoff）近日发表了一份措辞严厉的经济评估报告，报告指出，美国正处于历史上的生产力衰退期，美联储所采取的政策不足以冷却通胀，此时市场尚未能完全消化利率攀升的幅度。罗格夫在近期的一个采访中对美联储愿意冒多大的经济衰退风险来加息表示质疑。他认为美国民众将面临一个十分棘手的问题，那就是在美联储的政策影响下，他们愿意经历多长时间的经济衰退？罗格夫表示，目前数据所显示的通货膨胀程度是可怕的，且美联储前期政策效果不理想，民众真实工资水平比表面上显示的数据更加糟糕。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":663494238,"gmtCreate":1663320296029,"gmtModify":1676537251680,"author":{"id":"3563140991934227","authorId":"3563140991934227","name":"Fred_6810","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbe236f23155302a4dcecbf04d2e9040","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3563140991934227","authorIdStr":"3563140991934227"},"htmlText":"這大雜燴，沒有任何專業性","listText":"這大雜燴，沒有任何專業性","text":"這大雜燴，沒有任何專業性","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/663494238","repostId":2267863747,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":663585289,"gmtCreate":1663287807343,"gmtModify":1676537243530,"author":{"id":"3529442786949945","authorId":"3529442786949945","name":"zoliver","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90c1dca4a5a9fb11ee9b93897363ce44","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3529442786949945","authorIdStr":"3529442786949945"},"htmlText":"閱","listText":"閱","text":"閱","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/663585289","repostId":2267863747,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9934549815,"gmtCreate":1663285970038,"gmtModify":1676537242556,"author":{"id":"3561544476596136","authorId":"3561544476596136","name":"hhyw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62f8a12108672917c80685184f331b6f","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3561544476596136","authorIdStr":"3561544476596136"},"htmlText":"好","listText":"好","text":"好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9934549815","repostId":2267863747,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9934550209,"gmtCreate":1663285200701,"gmtModify":1676537242223,"author":{"id":"3567713246268891","authorId":"3567713246268891","name":"KK风筝","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/981757ac91ea5a06fa742ae7f16bc62b","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3dee1aa3a3a3c1814833a4d3f8a5669","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3567713246268891","authorIdStr":"3567713246268891"},"htmlText":"see","listText":"see","text":"see","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9934550209","repostId":2267863747,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9934585351,"gmtCreate":1663284006873,"gmtModify":1676537241561,"author":{"id":"3567334721242358","authorId":"3567334721242358","name":"MyKhoo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71f130b587a20deffeafc3a3dd2f3d5b","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c5ceab71416b120bab4604c0754b52a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3567334721242358","authorIdStr":"3567334721242358"},"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9934585351","repostId":2267863747,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":103946531,"gmtCreate":1663287126841,"gmtModify":1663287131119,"authorId":3501998685270291,"author":{"id":3501998685270291,"idStr":"3501998685270291","authorId":3501998685270291,"name":"淡然笑","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/283ce58a1f2bd5b7a16cf61c753a9e26","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-3","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Legendary 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