瑞信不是雷曼，如今也不是2008，但瑞信的时间确实不多了

89
Comment
12

瑞信不是雷曼，如今也不是2008，但瑞信的时间确实不多了

华尔街见闻2022-10-04

拖延的代价是昂贵的。瑞信的危机可能没那么严重，但它需要尽快向市场证明自己。最近一个星期，围绕着瑞信是否会破产，是否将成为下一个雷曼兄弟，以及是否会重演2008年的疑问不绝于耳。尽管瑞信在周末紧急发声，但在忧虑的市场看来，这反而是重演当年的一个欲盖弥彰的危险信号。对于瑞信CEO“千亿美元资本”的保证，市场向瑞信报以“股债双杀”：瑞信股价昨日下跌超10%，今年以来已下跌超过60%，五年期信用违约掉期...

Source Link

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Report

Comment

54oo_
·2022-10-05
[呆住]
Reply
Like
Report
老八公
·2022-10-04
OK
Reply
1
Report
Fold Replies
- 老八公:
  👌
  2022-10-04
  Reply
  Report
LeonTeh
·2022-10-04
Yue
Reply
Like
Report
Fattkhong
·2022-10-04
[惊讶]
Reply
1
Report
Fold Replies
- Fattkhong:
  [惊讶]
  2022-10-04
  Reply
  Report
Yoongc
·2022-10-04
ok
Reply
2
Report
Fold Replies
- Yoongc:
  ok
  2022-10-04
  Reply
  Report

Most Discussed

7x24

All

Terms and Conditions·Privacy Policy

Company: TTMF Limited. Tech supported by Xiangshang Yixin.

Email：uservice@ttm.financial

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2272839655?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f54576022a16de9a61b6137b57925c1","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2022-10-04 16:20","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2272839655","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"瑞信不是雷曼，如今也不是2008，但瑞信的时间确实不多了","media":"华尔街见闻","content":"<div>\n<p>拖延的代价是昂贵的。瑞信的危机可能没那么严重，但它需要尽快向市场证明自己。最近一个星期，围绕着瑞信是否会破产，是否将成为下一个雷曼兄弟，以及是否会重演2008年的疑问不绝于耳。尽管瑞信在周末紧急发声，但在忧虑的市场看来，这反而是重演当年的一个欲盖弥彰的危险信号。对于瑞信CEO“千亿美元资本”的保证，市场向瑞信报以“股债双杀”：瑞信股价昨日下跌超10%，今年以来已下跌超过60%，五年期信用违约掉期...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3671749\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"wallstreetcn_api","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>瑞信不是雷曼，如今也不是2008，但瑞信的时间确实不多了</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n瑞信不是雷曼，如今也不是2008，但瑞信的时间确实不多了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-04 16:20 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3671749><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>拖延的代价是昂贵的。瑞信的危机可能没那么严重，但它需要尽快向市场证明自己。最近一个星期，围绕着瑞信是否会破产，是否将成为下一个雷曼兄弟，以及是否会重演2008年的疑问不绝于耳。尽管瑞信在周末紧急发声，但在忧虑的市场看来，这反而是重演当年的一个欲盖弥彰的危险信号。对于瑞信CEO“千亿美元资本”的保证，市场向瑞信报以“股债双杀”：瑞信股价昨日下跌超10%，今年以来已下跌超过60%，五年期信用违约掉期...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3671749\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":null,"symbol_name":null,"start_time":0,"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3671749","article_id":"2272839655","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f54576022a16de9a61b6137b57925c1"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2272839655","pubTimestamp":1664871624,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"wallstreetcn_api","name":"华尔街见闻"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"拖延的代价是昂贵的。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"wallstreetcn.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{},"translate_title":"Credit Suisse is not Lehman, and it is not 2008, but Credit Suisse's time is really running out","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52f3dc978c00f7cd78e252c17c2ea590","symbols_score_info":{"CS":0.9},"content_text":"拖延的代价是昂贵的。瑞信的危机可能没那么严重，但它需要尽快向市场证明自己。最近一个星期，围绕着瑞信是否会破产，是否将成为下一个雷曼兄弟，以及是否会重演2008年的疑问不绝于耳。尽管瑞信在周末紧急发声，但在忧虑的市场看来，这反而是重演当年的一个欲盖弥彰的危险信号。对于瑞信CEO“千亿美元资本”的保证，市场向瑞信报以“股债双杀”：瑞信股价昨日下跌超10%，今年以来已下跌超过60%，五年期信用违约掉期指数（CDS）价格目前约为293个基点，高于今年初约55个基点的水平，处于历史最高水平。对于市场而言，瑞信的生死固然重要，但更重要的是，瑞信是否真的会重演当年的“雷曼时刻”，乃至全球金融危机。就这个更关键的问题，一些华尔街银行则提出了较为积极的观点——瑞信不是雷曼，当下的金融市场已经与当年有很大不同，因此，“雷曼时刻”不会重演，也不再会撼动全球金融体系。不过，如果这些积极的观点最终验真，那也是一个属于全球市场的好消息，而不属于瑞信。“现在不是2008”一些认为“雷曼时刻”不会到来的观点指出，2008年的金融危机根源是系统性问题，但这些问题现在并不存在。乔治城大学麦克多诺商学院金融学教授James Angel昨日对媒体表示，现在的世界与2008年大不相同，当时人们是“突然意识”到整个金融体系的普遍亏损，而当时的银行并不像今天的那样面临着更严格的监管：尽管鉴于经济衰退的逼近，如今市场上出现了“痛苦的现实”，但“不存在像2008年那样影响所有人的重大系统性问题。”不过，危机虽不至于蔓延整个系统，但也并非可以被忽视。专家们表示，最糟糕的情况是这家瑞士银行业巨头不得不申请破产保护。这样的事件将对金融体系的其余部分产生负面连锁效应，因为交易对手的风险敞口将成为一个更大的问题。然而在这之前，瑞信将不得不达到无法为其资产提供资金的程度。Angel认为，在这种情况下，最大的问题是监管机构将如何应对。瑞信可能会被迫进行资本重组——以稀释的利率筹集资金，或通过央行的贴现贷款机制进一步借款。尽管如此，“雷曼式的爆炸”仍不太可能发生。Angel表示，瑞信的情况更像是个例，而并非系统性问题——瑞信正在为近年来的Archegos Capital爆仓、Greensill Capital破产等负面事件付出代价。另一个与瑞信目前的情况相似的是2016年的德意志银行，当年德银正面临与抵押贷款支持证券相关的联邦调查，CDS同样飙升，债务评级被下调。但最终德银筹集了近80亿美元的新资本，并且支付了低于预期的和解费，使得该行免于破产危机。有了德银的例子，一些分析师对于瑞信终将得以纾困怀有信心。最近花旗集团在一份报告中表示，瑞信股价徘徊在历史低点附近，现在是“勇者必买”的选择，该行分析师Andrew Coombs表示：现在不是2008年。在本周一的报告中，摩根大通也表示，根据最近一个季度的财务业绩，瑞信仍拥有“健康”的资本和流动性。留给瑞信的时间不多了瑞信的下一份财务报告将在10月27日发布，而这可能是这家银行挽回公众信心的一个关键期限。正如上一节摩根大通分析师所言，上一季度的瑞银核心资本充足率仍达到了13.5%的稳定水平。而这也正是管理层坚称公司资本充足，品牌依然强大的理由。据瑞银方面表示，该行希望通过出售其证券化产品业务等盈利部门来筹集现金。但在如今利率不断上的大环境下，出售这些资产能否给瑞信带来期望中的回报，仍然值得怀疑。据媒体估计，今年第三季度，美国资本市场的佣金可能下降了50%，甚至更多。摩根大通分析师Kian Abouhossein指出，对于瑞信而言，当下另一条路是提前公布其三季度资本状况，以及全新的改革战略，以证明该行资产负债表依然稳健，稳定投资者信心。就目前的环境而言，强劲的业绩已基本不在预期中，关键在于瑞信的改革计划。此前，改革计划的轮廓已被市场大致知晓，但无论具体细节如何，这一次的瑞信必须真正实现所制定的计划，因为银行是一个需要信心的行业，而拖延的代价是昂贵的。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9915914801,"gmtCreate":1664935657304,"gmtModify":1676537532141,"author":{"id":"4106048906582030","authorId":"4106048906582030","name":"54oo_","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/487558a38e7b519d3eaf5dabf2b07629","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"[呆住]&nbsp;","listText":"[呆住]&nbsp;","text":"[呆住]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9915914801","repostId":2272839655,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9912737528,"gmtCreate":1664897760664,"gmtModify":1676537525694,"author":{"id":"4087300025751020","authorId":"4087300025751020","name":"老八公","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27256ede8324832365cde987fa4cf48","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9912737528","repostId":2272839655,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":104217246,"gmtCreate":1664897767314,"gmtModify":1664897770569,"authorId":4087300025751020,"author":{"id":4087300025751020,"authorId":4087300025751020,"name":"老八公","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27256ede8324832365cde987fa4cf48","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9912737528,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<span class=\"s1\">👌</span>","text":"<span class=\"s1\">👌</span>","html":"<span class=\"s1\">👌</span>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9912793225,"gmtCreate":1664895323167,"gmtModify":1676537525172,"author":{"id":"3581983337716959","authorId":"3581983337716959","name":"LeonTeh","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Yue","listText":"Yue","text":"Yue","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9912793225","repostId":2272839655,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9912473562,"gmtCreate":1664892316256,"gmtModify":1676537524400,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9912473562","repostId":2272839655,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":104216292,"gmtCreate":1664892328075,"gmtModify":1664892331546,"authorId":3576924513004067,"author":{"id":3576924513004067,"authorId":3576924513004067,"name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9912473562,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<span class=\"s1\">[惊讶]</span>","text":"<span class=\"s1\">[惊讶]</span>","html":"<span class=\"s1\">[惊讶]</span>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9912473162,"gmtCreate":1664892247756,"gmtModify":1676537524383,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9912473162","repostId":2272839655,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":104216282,"gmtCreate":1664892255265,"gmtModify":1664892258807,"authorId":3581927941435634,"author":{"id":3581927941435634,"authorId":3581927941435634,"name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9912473162,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<span class=\"s1\">ok</span>","text":"<span class=\"s1\">ok</span>","html":"<span class=\"s1\">ok</span>"}],"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":89,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":12,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}